00:03WA, it is Sunday the 21st of June and this is your weather update for the week ahead.
00:08We're having a look here at rainfall totals for the week and we can see that there is a system
00:14coming in for the southwest region. It's a front that arrives on Thursday but the main rainfall
00:22happens on Saturday. So we'll have a look into the week. Starting off with the rainfall map,
00:29we're looking at Saturday the 27th of June which is over a week away. So you know we're looking at
00:36a
00:36general idea but it is that a low pressure system is moving through delivering anywhere between 25 to
00:4450 mils locally. We'll have a look at the range of certainty for that event as well. Just quickly
00:52looking into Sunday, Sunday the 28th, we can see that system moves definitely to the southern
01:01parts of the coast. And that's a similar story with the wind gusts. Most of the wind gusts that
01:08come for this front, so the front arrives before the low on the Thursday and Friday, most of the
01:13wind gusts are actually down in the south coast rather than on that western coast which is getting
01:19the rain. But the gusts aren't incredibly strong. It's not a powerful front. Maximum 63 to 90 kilometers
01:26an hour and we can see that by Saturday they've moved through the region and the low pressure is
01:34only bringing 40 to 63 kilometer gusts. So yeah not a massive system but bringing a little bit of rain
01:41to
01:41the region. Looking at minimum temperatures, we can see that it's getting cold this week but compared to
01:48the southeast, the southwest is a lot warmer likely because that Indian Ocean is so warm it's bringing
01:55so much tropical moisture and warmth to it that it's bringing rain but it's not cooling things off.
02:02So yeah let's quickly have a look at the forecast for Margaret River which is going to be seeing a
02:11lot of
02:11that rainfall. So yeah here we go Friday 30 mils but it could be anywhere between 16 and 54 mils
02:20but the
02:22wind gusts aren't massive. Let's look on Thursday when the front is meant to arrive. See we only get
02:28a couple of hours and that's only 41 kilometers an hour so yeah the wind is not a big issue
02:33with this front.
02:35Cool so Friday is where most of that rainfall is set to arrive. Let's just quickly see most of the
02:42models
02:43have it coming in at about the mid to end of the day but it's so far away that that
02:48timing you know
02:49we'll really have to see whether that system wants to move quickly or slowly before we make any claims
02:54like that. But looking at these models it's the Canadian one that's giving us most of the rainfall but all
03:02of
03:03them are showing at least a few mils arriving. Okay let's briefly have a look at some of these
03:11lower temperatures. So seven degrees on Wednesday and Thursday and calm winds which typically would
03:18bring a fog risk but I'm not seeing any there. Monday it's where we get the fog risk because there's
03:25also moisture in the atmosphere we're getting drizzly rainfall as well. So Monday there's that fog risk
03:30because of the moisture, the low winds, the cooler temperatures. Tuesday a little bit of fog and then
03:37it clears off. Lovely. That's sort of it for the southern part of the state. As we can see the
03:48northern
03:48half of WA stays nice and dry. Let's have a quick look at the MJO. So the MJO is currently
03:55in
03:56a drier state. We are in the dry season we don't expect a lot of rainfall. But the last time
04:02we
04:02looked at the MJO on these videos it was showing us we were staying in this drier state until the
04:08start of July. The new spin of these forecasts is showing us that as of sort of like the 25th
04:17of July
04:18we're heading into some of the wetter stages of the Madden-Julian oscillation. So this week is going to
04:24stay dry but maybe next week or the week after a little bit of rainfall for the north is coming.
04:29Okay that is our forecast for WA. If you're curious about any of our climate drivers or long-range
04:36forecasts we have a discussion about them in our Australian national weather video so you can check
04:42that out as well. Have a great week and we'll see you next time.
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