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00:00what big names that would be after all the dust settled yesterday mike show up in the bulldog here
00:05joined now on the west her hotline by travis yost of tsn hi travis hi mike cowboy dog how you
00:14guys
00:14doing hot we're good man yeah there's that what's the temperature in the room what's the latest
00:19uh 83 we're up to 83 in the room yeah you know he's on the fridge we got a holiday
00:25weekend and
00:25that's just how it'd be so thoughts and prayers to the 78 keep that ac at 78 78 so we
00:34read you on
00:35connor hellebuck and the dilemma i think i would want to say that he might be as an idea asking
00:42this
00:42i want to hope i hope we can talk about it as if it's not necessarily dead that he's traded
00:48to
00:48somebody it sounded to me very much like winnipeg wanted to make that trade and maybe hellebuck did
00:53too but um what are the pros and cons and how do you see it being that it's i mean
00:58it's july 2nd
00:59only but it kind of feels when it gets past july 1st like it's most the action is mostly done
01:06um it's fascinating because typically i would agree that the likelihood of a post july 1 trade
01:13diminishes because as teams spend up into their cap space uh there's just not as much opportunity to
01:21take on bigger salaries unless you can find creative deals where you're swapping salary out
01:25or third team so that that's pretty consistent with what we've seen in nhl off seasons i would
01:30say this is different though i would say this is still as likely to be a trade um and i
01:36would say
01:36the base case is that he's still traded i think the real question is the timing of the trade whether
01:41it's now ish soon ish trade deadline ish which is even more tricky but uh i think hellebuck and
01:48winnipeg are headed for a divorce so one of the things that i think you know the sabers front
01:54office is clearly thinking about and i saw uh i saw the front office a little guarded in what they
02:00were saying as they should be but it it seems to me that winnipeg put up a pretty significant
02:07asking price as they should by the way we're talking about a three-time besina winner who is not
02:11at all the age of sergey robrovsky for example so you know they're going to ask for something close
02:17to a ransom and i think it's incumbent on teams to answer two questions here one or three one uh
02:24is he still the guy two what are we willing to give up if he is that guy and three
02:28can we play a
02:30little bit of chicken here because how many teams are ready to sink a bunch of assets into a you
02:36know
02:36an elite goalie who is definitely on the wrong side of 30 but is one of one uh in my
02:41opinion over
02:42the last eight nine ten years so you know if i look at this from the sabers perspective i think
02:47it's a bit of a waiting game right now i i think i think buffalo's really the situation is
02:52we have a we have a compelling package we can tinker with that package there's probably some
02:58threshold that they're never going to go above especially coming off of a year where you're
03:03goaltending for the first time in like three decades actually outperformed expectations and i i just
03:10think they're kind of in this what other teams are really out there and winnipeg are you sure we
03:15haven't put the best offer on the table now you know he's still got term on the contract and winnipeg
03:21could absolutely you know sit on their hands and try and make things work with hella buck but
03:25you know if i look at it from his perspective um whether he's been you know a silent supporter
03:30encouraging this kind of to your earlier point or you know how this plays out winnipeg's let's say
03:36prospects over the next couple years are they don't look good i let's just let's just say that
03:41black and white and you're talking about a goalie who's done everything but win a stanley cup i i just
03:47can't imagine they're not heading for a divorce and maybe it's an amicable divorce um and and so far
03:52it seems like it's been okay uh but i i think this is still one a one b up there
04:00in terms of like
04:00things that we keep watching through the summer i'm not at all convinced that you know a day or two
04:05removed from opening a free agency that we're we're less likely to see something i don't think
04:09in this case i don't want to burn too much time on this but do you have an idea quickly
04:13on what
04:14happened to winnipeg i know they lost eelers in free agency last year but like i don't know they
04:19they were like a weren't they like a hundred more than a hundred point team just a year ago and
04:24mostly
04:25the same it's crazy right and not to mention over this entire period um with the exception of his
04:32sophomore year hello buck has been like median 90th percentile goaltender like median 90 percent
04:39is remarkable when you consider the volatility at the position and and and so you know i i think
04:46it's been a little death by a thousand paper cuts for winnipeg like this is a team that's been
04:50competitive for some time but like you know shifley tapered off a little bit wheeler aged out uh you
04:56know they they start losing pieces on the blue line which i think you know four or five years ago
05:01were a little underrated to their broader success the defensive core now is rough i do think it's
05:06better than it was year over year but it's just been kind of a slow progression to the depths of
05:11mediocrity when they had an otherwise competitive lineup and by the way i forgot to answer my own
05:15point here but like the the to me the the most important thing here is if you look at hellebuck's
05:23comparables and i don't want to i won't spend a ton of time on the article i wrote encourage people
05:27to
05:27read it on monday you know it's hard to say a three-time visit a trophy winner superstar goalie
05:32olympic gold medalist has a ton of comparables but they are out there and most of these guys
05:36when they've hit the age of 33 ish where hellebuck is right now they still play pretty well for the
05:42next three or four years they it they kind of age from i'm an elite goalie to i'm a pretty
05:48good goalie
05:49and i think that's actually informing a lot of a lot of the calculus here and by the way the
05:52two names
05:53that jumped out to me when i was doing the comps henrik lundquist and roberto lolongo and i think
05:57that those are two absolutely fair comparisons for a goal goalie the caliber of hellebuck both of them
06:02played well reasonably well more so lundquist into their mid and late 30s so you know even from a
06:08time or premium risk with the contract i think teams are going to at some point whether it's the
06:12sabers or someone else they're going to say yeah we're comfortable giving up a couple premium assets
06:17here because we're going to get a top six goalie in the league last thing for me on hellebuck
06:21um do you have a thought on what's a decent respectable trade package from buffalo to pull
06:28this trade off yeah so i i mean you're going to have to go first off when you trade hellebuck
06:35i
06:36mean he is the winnipeg jets at this point the winner you got to recognize that winnipeg is effectively
06:40saying look we're out of the game for the couple years they're going to want a first round pick they
06:44may even want multiple first round picks and maybe for for some teams that's too far if you're a team
06:49like the sabers where you've got a decent prospect covered but you've kind of evolved some of these
06:54players already to nhl standards i think it's going to be the classic like premium picks and prospect or
07:00prospects package and i know that's kind of i know that's very broad but this is the sort of deal
07:05that
07:05you see it's a three for one a four for one and it's stacked with you know first round picks
07:09and
07:09maybe winnipeg even wants to date those picks out a year or two because you know you know when you
07:14buffalo is already coming off an 108 point season they're going to add a top three goalie in the
07:19league at worst as soon as next season like you got to expect that pick is going to be in
07:23the low 20s
07:24early 30s uh so yeah there's there's some certainly uh paperwork to be there's some work to be done on
07:30this trade and what uh tech line can can pull off here but it will be expensive like that that's
07:35to me
07:36that's the important point here is winnipeg is not going to move hellebuck nor should they unless they
07:42are getting that sort of three for one four for one type package where it is going to feel like
07:47a
07:47lot's going out uh but what you're getting is a goalie who's going to outperform in just about
07:53every scenario and what's that worth to teams a lot if you can predict it with travis yost tsn
07:58what are your thoughts on dylan larkin also not yet traded that's an interesting one because it's been
08:05more vocal in the news but i also think there are more questions about the player i think he's a
08:11very
08:11good player for the record like i don't think we're nearly as concerned but my confidence about
08:15what hellebuck would mean to a team versus larkin uh and the teams by the way that would want the
08:20larkin uh you know i i think we talked about a few of what we thought one of the interesting
08:25things to me here and it's why i don't think the hellebuck stuff is dead at all um i thought
08:30the two
08:30teams that were going to make kind of splashy off seasons there was three of them buffalo utah anaheim
08:35anaheim basically sold everything i mean they lost everything under the sun it felt like and then added
08:40um the odd stretch of players san jose is also in that group where you know pre-july one fantastic
08:47then they add like a hundred billion dollars in bad defensemen on the blue line that was odd
08:51but the other two teams the other two teams we circled up on were buffalo who i still think is
08:56sitting in the pole position for hellebuck and utah and utah kind of extended themselves a little bit
09:01here with with the vinnie trochek ad and the andrews lee ad so they don't have nearly as much cap
09:06space i
09:07guess the mammoth did did kind of put their chips in the table but you know a player like larkin
09:11could
09:11make a ton of sense there and you know they've got an interesting uh situation on their hands i don't
09:18know how many people in buffalo saw it but uh this is a little inside baseball league in some respects
09:24but you know new jersey and utah apparently had a trade worked out for barrett hayton young quality
09:29middle six forward trade falls through like a lot do at the at the uh draft and uh sunny meta
09:35the
09:36following days like you know what we're going to sign him to a one-year four and a half million
09:39dollar uh offer sheet and of course you know every time you're like why would of course utah's
09:43going to match that he's a third line winger who might even be a second line winger as soon as
09:47next
09:47year uh the problem is he walks right to free agency you can't extend them and you know it the
09:52fact
09:53that he signed the offer sheet to begin with kind of makes you think he might have one foot out
09:56the
09:56door if you know if a team like utah says you know what we'll move on from hayton we'll take
10:02that
10:02you know 4.7 million dollar cap net benefit because we're not signing him to that and the
10:08second round pick hey maybe i'm going to turn around and call detroit about bill and larkin so i
10:13i i think that's a little less likely in relative terms to a hellebuck deal which i know sounds odd
10:18because hellebuck you know it would seem like moving a goalie with that salary in that age might
10:22be a little trickier but i wonder if larkin kind of stretches into the season and what that may look
10:28like and by the way uh detroit is on the short list of uh dumpster fires right now in the
10:33nhl i
10:34think that's obvious fun fact i have somewhere in my phone a video of barrett hayton undressing my
10:39kid at sue greyhounds development camp in a shootout at the end of that red and white scrimmage
10:44right it was right after he was whatever the fourth or fifth overall pick whatever he was
10:49that that draft year he showed up late to training camp for them and you know undressed my kid come
10:53on
10:53there's got to be a saver too oh no he played great he made the team there but like in
10:58the
10:58shootout no i don't know maybe maybe he wasn't there the whole time it was like he showed up
11:03for this game which was the end of okay training camp and what i'm curious would you guys match that
11:09would you guys match that offer sheet i actually think this is a rare instance i'd let him walk
11:12and i know that sounds odd but i i think i'd let him go yeah well the way you lay
11:16it out i mean it
11:17sounds like they're they're you know they'd be renting him for a year basically i might rather get
11:21a return exactly it right and to me that's why that's why whether it's larkin or even a secondary
11:26player not larkin maybe someone lower on the cap rank so to speak but like there's an opportunity
11:31where utah could say i'll take that second round pick and reinvest that capital into a player that
11:35might have three years of term left and he's going to fill that middle six by the way i think
11:39this
11:39this is directly segues into my thoughts about the byram zoecker gambit that that kick a line up
11:46was incredible i thought it was incredible but i think utah i think the utah version of that story
11:51is kind of a small version of that gordy byram is that who you mean bow and gordy byram hey
11:57i got
11:57a little fun the nerd the 12 nerds who know what we're talking about here will will love this stat
12:02and everyone else will roll their eyes but goals above replacement so can measuring all the
12:07contributions of a player at on every game state including penalties how they perform special teams
12:12last two seasons who do you got byram or zellweger it's going to be zellweger i know you well
12:17enough it's even even on the dot on the dot and i think the point here by the way like
12:23the point
12:23here is okay maybe if we're maybe if someone's got you know it's a hostage situation i've got a weapon
12:31to my head i'm i'm probably going to pick byram in a vacuum but when you consider the salary
12:36ramifications between the two it's extraordinary utah or buffalo reaped a ton as part of the trade
12:43like i i think this was the best move any team made uh in the last week i thought what
12:51they did
12:52both parlaying his trade out and bringing i think an underrated slightly smaller defenseman from
12:58anaheim their way for effectively the cost of what a second or third round pick i think it was
13:02uh in a prospect uh they i to me that was beautiful beautiful a-plus work by kickle on it
13:08how are you feeling about the bills bulldog sounds like he's kind of worried
13:13sometimes i'm a little worried i think i well let me ask you let me let me this is a
13:18second
13:19question i shouldn't even do this but uh i feel like we might be headed for a sluggish september and
13:25that's the that's the one thing that's a little concerning and by the way schedule for six seven
13:29weeks isn't super forgiving crazy very tough schedule yeah yeah i my whole thing travis on that
13:36is just i i don't i know you've got josh allen therefore you're you'll be a contender and
13:41like i respect that but i think it just sort of ignores all the stuff mcdermott did get right
13:48over the years and i know he wasn't perfect and i'm not even belly aching about him not being here
13:53anymore i'm just not assuming a first-time guy is going to have everything buttoned up
13:57and have the command and the respect of the the room the way that i think mcdermott largely did
14:03i mean i'm sure he wasn't everybody's favorite on the team that almost defies logic that that would
14:08be the case because there's so many guys but i just don't assume that there's going to be like
14:13this seamless transition just because brady has been here for a few years i i agree and by the way
14:20like i think you could even i think to your point you could even say hey even if even if
14:25brady does
14:25carve out a different niche even if because this is a veteran roster even if that's lesser of a concern
14:32right predictability and rigidity with organizations typically is a good thing and when you make
14:38meaningful changes like this um sometimes there are unintended consequences and by and large i mean
14:43we should not overlook the fact that sean mcdermott had one of the you know most winning stretches
14:49over the period he was the bills head coach of any team in the league right i mean buffalo was
14:53if they
14:54weren't number one they were they were in the top three for sure uh in terms of win loss record
14:58since
14:58he took over the hell especially in the post josh allen era i should emphasize that part but
15:01i think i think more to the point like even if you assume that's a wash like the the the
15:08900 pound
15:09you know elephant in the room that that i just have not get been able to get past and i've
15:14gotten long
15:15past okay you know let's move on from mcdermott brady's the guy blah blah blah you sit on it for
15:20a day
15:20you move forward um this roster just isn't that good and this has been the problem for three or four
15:27years now especially on the defensive side of the ball and anyone who has fears about pockets of
15:33weakness on this roster which i think should be every bill's fan to maybe varying degrees but this
15:39is not a top three roster in the league uh top five roster in the league like i the problem
15:44i've
15:44always had is the guy who architected all the personnel decisions for a very long time not just
15:49we're reacting for an 18 month stretch for a very very long time and brandon bean
15:53still kind of has the keys to the kingdom and that that has never sat well with me because
15:59i look at this roster now last year the year prior versus where it was the three years predating this
16:05three-year stretch and it's worse i mean there's no way about it and you can you can how you
16:09would
16:09apportion or attribute the blame there the von miller contract some of these moves that didn't pan out
16:13like gms are going to win and lose on deals but great front offices win more often than not and
16:19i'm not
16:20sure the bill's front office has won more often than not i actually think they've lost more often
16:24than they've won but the greater racer has been josh allen in this whole ordeal mcdermott 98 and 50
16:30and that includes allen's rookie year and the year before so right on
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