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00:00Back three, Davis Maddock and I, he put it to me.
00:04Do you want Ward or Mendoza?
00:07We have Bowers.
00:09But Ward is about two rounds earlier, and let's just take Ward.
00:15Hear my voice?
00:16That's the level of enthusiasm with which I made the selection.
00:19Let's just take Ward.
00:20It doesn't really matter how enthusiastic you are about it now.
00:23Could that work?
00:23When it pays off and you win your league on his 4,400-yard season.
00:31Wow.
00:31Signed for that right now.
00:33That's what I'm talking about.
00:33Right into it with Warren Sharpe.
00:35Warren Sharpe is on hold.
00:37Would we take 4,400 passing yards this year from Cam Ward?
00:41I'll hang up and listen.
00:44Slam dunk, yes.
00:45Absolutely.
00:47Would we take 3,400?
00:48Absolutely.
00:48I don't know what his prop line is,
00:50but I can guarantee you it's probably about 1,000 yards shy of that.
00:53There it is.
00:55Thank you for your time again today, Warren.
00:57The 2026 football preview from Sharpe Football Analysis is out,
01:02and we'll talk about how you can best purchase it as we go through the day.
01:07And, of course, we want to focus mostly on the Bills here, Warren.
01:10I mean, it entirely is out already because here we are with Cam Ward questions.
01:14Right.
01:15Right off the hop.
01:16One thing I wanted to start with with you on the Bills.
01:19Reading Bill Barnwell, talking to Aaron Schatz,
01:23there is a lot, and, you know, us generally here for the last few years,
01:28just a lot of negativity about their weapons.
01:31You have a receiver tier chart on your Twitter,
01:34and you give them a C, like middle of the pack,
01:36wide receivers and tight ends included.
01:40Do you feel like the extent to which they're impoverished at that position
01:44is overstated?
01:45Are they maybe, I'm sort of loading the question, I guess,
01:47are they maybe sneaky a little better than they get credit for, or what?
01:53I think that was a big problem for them last year.
01:55I know that the defense ultimately cost them,
01:59but the reality is they need more weapons for Josh Allen,
02:03and the ranking that we gave them this year is an improvement over last year
02:07because I do like the fit of DJ Moore into this offense.
02:10But, I mean, look, if you guys want to hear some nuggets
02:14and your listeners want to hear some nuggets that might blow your mind
02:17as it relates to this receiving core, I've got them in my 2026 football preview.
02:23Khalil Shakir averaged just 3.7 air yards per target.
02:29And let me put that into some perspective.
02:31There were 38 wide receivers around the league last year that had at least 90 targets.
02:36So think of it as these are our wide receiver ones.
02:38Around the league, there's just over 32 of them.
02:41These are our top receivers, one per team most likely.
02:44The average target depth for those number one wide receivers was 10.7 air yards.
02:50The next closest player to Khalil Shakir, who ranked dead last in the league,
02:54was Debo Samuel at 5.3 air yards.
02:58I went all the way back 20 years.
03:01There have been 752 instances where a wide receiver had 90-plus targets in a season.
03:08No one averaged fewer air yards per target than Khalil Shakir.
03:13He ranked 752 out of 752.
03:17That was obviously terrible.
03:20This is Josh Allen just basically dumping the ball off, throwing it underneath,
03:24and that's your leading weapon.
03:26Khalil Shakir, here's another step.
03:28That might blow your mind.
03:29Had just eight catches that were thrown at least seven air yards.
03:33That is absolutely incredible.
03:35A wide receiver one who isn't even catching the ball more than six yards down the field at all.
03:42That is mind-boggling to me.
03:44And then you look at the guys that were being targeted down the field.
03:48Kian Coleman was only two players of the Bills beyond Shakir that even had double-digit targets
03:56on passes thrown 15 yards down the field.
03:58Coleman caught only seven of 18 targets out of 63 receivers with at least 15 targets thrown 15 yards down
04:06the field.
04:06He ranked 62 out of 63, or second to worst, in yards per target.
04:13So, I mean, they just do not have anybody who is causing problems for the defense.
04:20And this has a cascading ripple effect for Josh Allen himself.
04:25And it's part of the reason why defenses blitzed him as often as they did on third downs
04:32is because they had so much confidence that there would not be a receiver who could beat them down the
04:39field for big plays.
04:40And so, Josh Allen, his blitz rate on third down was at 39%.
04:45That was the highest that it has been at any point in his career.
04:50And, you know, on third downs, he was taking a ton of sacks.
04:53His 15% sack rate was significantly higher than it was in 2024 at only 4.6%, and in 2023
05:01at 6.3%.
05:03Third down sack rate, they were just sending the house at him.
05:06He didn't know where to go with the football.
05:08It was a problem for the Bills on third down.
05:10That leads to issues in terms of maintaining drives, scoring points.
05:15Now, I'm not going to say too much negative here because Josh Allen is our number one quarterback in the
05:21NFL this year.
05:22We think he is the best quarterback in the NFL.
05:24And so, when you look at overall Bills' statistics, like passing yardage and overall offensive yardage and scoring and things
05:32like that,
05:32the Bills are at the top.
05:34Well, the Bills are at the top because Josh Allen is so elite,
05:36and that sort of might mask the fact that they have a clear, glaring weakness at the receiver position.
05:42And it's something that is going to continue in 2026, just not quite as bad as it was last year,
05:48but it's still something that they could absolutely use in more assistance and helping with.
05:52You mentioned, Warren, right off the hop here that you like the potential fit of DJ Moore in this offense.
05:58Like, what does he give them that they've been lacking, and is it enough?
06:06I don't know that – let's put it this way.
06:08It's enough for them to have success in the postseason because they've had some success without it,
06:14and so when they get it, they will have more success.
06:17I don't think, given a variety of factors, whether it was the play calling or his fit,
06:23he seemed to have confidence issues.
06:25He seemed to have trust issues with his prior stop in Chicago.
06:29You know, he hasn't been playing with – like, let's face it,
06:33Caleb Williams, before Ben Johnson got there, wasn't great.
06:37And even last year, the accuracy – and there's a lot of issues still.
06:41Like, Caleb Williams improved by leaps and bounds, but he still had a lot of accuracy issues
06:46and problems last season.
06:48They also had a lot more mouths to feed.
06:50We think he is going to be targeted a lot more in Buffalo.
06:53He's not going to have these situations where he's not getting targets,
06:57and so he feels like he's not part of the offense, and so he feels like he's not integral,
07:00and so he sort of might take some plays off, kind of like a George Pickens at times would.
07:05Like, I don't see that being the case here in Buffalo,
07:07playing with an offensive-minded head coach with an elite quarterback.
07:12And as a result, I think there are going to be things that he is going to find a lot
07:18of upside
07:19in what his role is being asked of him.
07:22It's going to be a square peg into a square hole in Buffalo,
07:25and I think he's going to – I mean, I'll use the word flourish,
07:30but that's just based upon what he's done in the past.
07:32I don't see him, you know, Jamar Chase-type statistics,
07:36but we did bet his over-receiving yards already in the prop market this offseason
07:43because we think he's going to have plenty of opportunities there in Buffalo to have some success.
07:49Do you remember the number, Warren?
07:52I'll pull it up while you ask me the next question.
07:54I've got it here.
07:55I'll log into my app, and I'll tell you exactly what it was.
07:58My hesitation on that is more what you talked about when we started
08:03and just whether Joe Brady's offense will afford Allen and Moore the capacity for, like, big –
08:10I mean, he's a yards-per-catch guy, right?
08:12You want to get him down the field, and if they thrive in that way,
08:16maybe he clears that number pretty easily, whatever it is.
08:19But I don't know.
08:20$7.99 and a half.
08:21$7.99 and a half.
08:22I was thinking maybe $7.50.
08:24So, good.
08:25That's not an aggressive – it's not crazy or anything like that to go over.
08:29That's what they're – you know, that's why they did it, I guess, is –
08:33When you look at their schedule, if you look at the Bills' schedule this year,
08:37I'm going to – we've got the printout, but the Texans and the Lions and the Chargers
08:44and the Patriots and the Rams, those are their first five games.
08:47We're talking about offenses that can put up points.
08:50The Bills are going to have to trade blows with these guys all four quarters of the game.
08:55I mean, Buffalo was the highest – one of the highest-scoring offenses in the second half of games.
09:00It was in large part because they didn't get started quickly enough in the first half of games,
09:05in the first quarter of games.
09:06It's something I wrote about a lot in the book is I believe for them to have success in 2026,
09:11they're going to have to get started faster.
09:13But their schedule is absolutely jam-packed with teams and offenses
09:18that are going to be able to put up points on them.
09:21And as a result of that, they themselves are going to have to continue to score.
09:26And I think that that's just going to – there aren't going to be very many games
09:30where you're playing the Jets and the Dolphins on your schedule.
09:32You have a few, if we want to call them layup games because you play in the AFC East
09:37where you've got the Jets twice and the Dolphins twice,
09:39and you do have a game against the Raiders right before your bye.
09:43Other than that, I'm looking across the board, it is riddled with top 12 offenses
09:49almost every single week.
09:51And so you're going to have to score.
09:53Yeah, and there's a new scheme too.
09:55And we'll see about how well the personnel fits in there.
09:58I mean, certainly it's well documented.
10:01I mean, they went as far as they could go.
10:03The defense never was able to come through at least enough for them to clear the hurdles
10:07that need to be cleared.
10:08So I think everyone can see why they wanted to make a change
10:13to their defensive structure, but it's another thing to actually have it on the field
10:18and have it be as consistently good as McDermott's units were,
10:22at least in the regular season.
10:24So I think that's a big question.
10:26We've talked a little bit in here, Warren, about exactly what you're talking about.
10:30Do they pivot to a more pass-heavy offense simply because they have to
10:35because they're in games that are going to be 35-28?
10:39Yeah, and the issue is maybe they will throughout the course of the game.
10:45The question is, how are they going to start games?
10:47And they have a really good rushing attack.
10:49And James Cook is a very underrated running back who's had a lot of production
10:53and efficiency in this offense.
10:55And so I think that they're going to be able to continue to lean on that.
10:59But the issue is they have to score points earlier in games.
11:03Otherwise, they're going to be in these situations left and right where Josh Allen
11:08has to be Superman in the second half of games.
11:11Last year, they averaged almost nine points per fourth quarter.
11:15That was number one highest scoring team in the NFL.
11:18They averaged just over seven points scored in the third quarter.
11:22That was the number three highest scoring team in the NFL.
11:26And Josh Allen, whether you're looking at EPA, yards per attempt, completion rate,
11:30anything like that, he was top two in efficiency in the second half of games.
11:36If he's not Superman in the second half of games and they're not scoring all those points,
11:41where are the bills, right?
11:42Just think about it from that perspective.
11:44Like if Josh does pick up any injury or Josh can't deliver like that, this team is not
11:50having success.
11:51So you have to try to figure out a different way to win games and do it a little bit
11:55earlier
11:56so that maybe in the second half of games, Josh can take a breather.
12:01Josh can hand the ball off a little bit more with confidence.
12:03And that's one of the things that Dayball back in 2020, 2021, was really emphasizing with
12:08this team is getting out to explosive leads and riding on that wave throughout the rest
12:15of the game so that you could kind of maintain things as opposed to go crazy late in games.
12:22But it is definitely going to be a challenge and I think they need to be balanced.
12:26But if that rushing attack is not giving them the ability to bypass third downs enough in
12:32the first half of games and thus forcing them into too many third downs, situations where
12:37Josh Allen's going to get blitzed or take sacks and then they're punting the ball and
12:40they're not scoring points, that's when you really have to reevaluate, hey, I know we
12:44like Cook and I know we don't want to start the game with Josh Allen doing nothing but
12:4820 dropbacks to only five rushing attempts.
12:50But we have to get a little bit more explosiveness as well as avoiding third downs here.
12:57And we are going to find that potentially more in the passing game than the running game.
13:02And so they're going to have to figure it out.
13:04But they can't keep doing what they were doing last year.
13:07I just don't think it's sustainable to win games like that by just requiring Josh Allen
13:11to go bonkers in the third and fourth quarter of games.
13:15With Warren Sharp, Mike Shope and the Bulldog here, never gets enough credit in any sport
13:21getting out to a lead.
13:22The comebacks get all the glory.
13:24Comebacks are famous, like they're remembered.
13:27And everybody talks about heart and not giving up.
13:30You know what?
13:31Give me a 14-0 lead and see how many games I lose.
13:35100%.
13:35Right, Warren?
13:36I mean, it's just, even in World Cup, like it just seems to be true.
13:39We love to write the good story.
13:42And yeah, just even like the coin toss decision to start a game.
13:48Well, I want to know later what I need to do.
13:52I'm getting a little bit carried away on all of that.
13:55No, I completely agree.
13:57Look, this is another stat.
13:59Again, I spent a lot of time researching all 32 teams, but every single one of them gets
14:05the same treatment I give to the Buffalo Bills.
14:07Listen to this nugget that was in the book exactly to your point about building leads
14:11and trying to have success early in games.
14:13Do you realize that the Buffalo Bills had the number five most efficient on a per play offense
14:20last season in yards per play?
14:22They were top three in points per drive.
14:25Do you know that they led at halftime in just seven out of 17 games last year?
14:31They trailed, if you add all their games together, by 11 points at halftime in all of their games
14:37combined.
14:38So they had to be elite in scoring in the second half to come back in games.
14:44Otherwise, you're talking about flipping coins.
14:46You were losing by an average of 11 points at halftime last year.
14:50I just went, I didn't put this little nugget in the book, but I just went back and looked
14:54at it today because, I mean, I don't know how you guys feel in Buffalo.
14:58I'm not in Buffalo, but from the rest of the league, right, just evaluating from somewhere
15:03other than Buffalo, the Bills are viewed as, you know, an elite team, a top five team, a
15:08team that's always going to be there in the playoffs.
15:11I went back and looked at their solid wins last year, the wins by double digits.
15:16Only one team did they beat by double digits that even had a winning record last year.
15:21And that was the Pittsburgh Steelers who obviously lost the playoff game.
15:24I mean, you were talking about comfortable wins last season were against the Jets twice,
15:29the Dolphins, the Saints, the Panthers, the Bucs, and the Steelers.
15:34So three teams from the NFC South, which is the worst division in football, three games against
15:41the two terrible teams in your division, and then the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers
15:46who, you know, are not a great team, obviously, got made a change of the head coach position
15:52just like you guys did.
15:54So I think that the Buffalo Bills need to come out with a new approach with a new head coach.
16:02And maybe a defensive-minded head coach will play a little bit more conservatively early
16:07on in games, like Sean McDermott, like Mike Tomlin to an extent.
16:11But you now have an offensive-minded coach there, and he's got a lot of pressure on him,
16:17I'll be honest.
16:18By being a guy who's from inside the building, everybody views it as a massive head start
16:24because the offense doesn't have to learn anything new.
16:27It's the same offense.
16:28Now we've got to figure out the defense.
16:29To your point, it's going to be a challenge because you're adapting different personnel to
16:34a new scheme, but be that as it may, we're expecting a Super Bowl here very soon.
16:41We're winning games, making the playoffs, winning a couple playoff games is no longer
16:46an acceptable ceiling for the Buffalo Bills, and that's a lot of pressure on Joe Brady.
16:52And so with that pressure must come something that you're going to do a little bit differently
16:56that's more of Joe Brady, quote-unquote.
16:59That's his thing.
17:00This is what Joe Brady wants to do with this team now, where he doesn't have a coach who's
17:04potentially pulling the reins or twisting the dials to the way that McDermott wants it.
17:09And you better do something differently this year to make sure that you're making those
17:14changes and getting over the hump.
17:16Warren Sharp on the Wester Hotline for a few more minutes with us here.
17:20It hasn't gotten as many conversations, as much column ink, and as much conversation in
17:26this room as receiver, but almost the entirety of Josh Allen's career, the Bills have been
17:32trying to find the key to unlock pass rush.
17:37They've drafted, they've Von Miller.
17:42Now we've got Bradley Chubb and a second-round pick, their first pick after trading out of
17:47the first round, TJ Parker, and a new scheme.
17:51Do you see an answer for them pass rush-wise?
17:57I think it's going to be challenging this year, 100%.
18:00I agree with you.
18:02Only Gregory Rousseau last year returns who ranked top 50 in pressure rate out of 219 players
18:11with 150 pass rush snaps, they are losing some personnel and they're adapting a new scheme.
18:20And so it's going to be some of Jim Leonard trying to figure out what guys can, that's
18:25where good coaching comes in.
18:27Good coaching is, I've got a system and a scheme that I think works really well, but
18:31these players do X, Y, and Z really good.
18:34So I'm going to figure out a way to allow them and free them up to do X, Y, and
18:39Z while
18:39still getting as much of my scheme in there as I possibly can.
18:43And so that's the big challenge this year.
18:46And we just mentioned the schedule that they're going to be going up against in terms of these
18:51opposing quarterbacks.
18:53And life is not going to be easy for the Buffalo Bills defense and specifically for the pass
18:58rush, as you alluded to.
19:00Now, I am a firm believer, you guys were just talking about how you agreed with building
19:05leads.
19:06I'm a firm believer in that if you are successful offensively early in games, that actually
19:12helps your pass rush late in games.
19:15So when the Buffalo Bills are trailing or the Buffalo Bills are in a tight game where the
19:19opposing team's offense can hand the ball off or throw it, the playbook's entirely open,
19:23that makes life more difficult on your pass rush and your defensive play caller.
19:27However, if the offense has a lead, then the opposing offense, your opponent's quarterback,
19:33has to be more predictable.
19:34They're in more predictable situations because they're losing.
19:37And now they're not only playing your defense, but the scoreboard and the clock.
19:40And so they've got to be a little bit more predictable.
19:43And as a result, your pass rush can have more success and more opportunities.
19:49And so that's another way that you can help out a struggling unit is by the opposing unit
19:55on your own team.
19:56And I wish more coaches thought to that degree about the benefit of building leads.
20:03But certainly in Buffalo, that could be a big factor in 2026.
20:07Real quick, have you ever wondered if teams that script plays might be subject to slower
20:13starts?
20:14Because, you know, I'm an offensive coordinator.
20:17I'm going to the proverbial first 15 plays.
20:20But I'm going to definitely have some running plays in there or else I'm not really doing
20:24my job.
20:24Why am I panicking by calling only pass plays, you know, in a 0-0 game?
20:29I wonder if that correlates.
20:33Well, I can tell you, having worked with some teams, scripting to score points is one thing.
20:39Scripting to set up things for the future is maybe more so what you're talking about, right?
20:43And that's where sometimes Kyle Shanahan comes in.
20:45We're going to see what they do on what the defense does on this, and then we're going
20:49to build off of that in the future.
20:50So we might score more points in the second quarter, or we might score more points in the
20:54second half.
20:55Not so much necessarily in the first quarter of games.
20:58So there are different ways to script plays in your first 15, et cetera.
21:03And I was always at the notion that we're going to be aggressive early and throughout the
21:08game, but specifically early.
21:10And you want that script to try to attack weaknesses that you already know based upon
21:15your film study and based upon the data are likely to be there so that then you can put
21:21up points quickly.
21:22Quickly, Warren, what do you think of New England?
21:26I really like New England.
21:28I don't think their defense was anywhere close to being as good last season.
21:33Run defense was elite, but as they looked or statistically ranked because of the opposing
21:39quarterbacks and the opposing schedule that they played.
21:41I mean, it was a joke of a schedule last season.
21:43It is going to be a lot more difficult this year.
21:46They certainly have new talent this year that they're integrating at the passing, you know,
21:52AJ Brown, Romeo Dobbs.
21:54We're adding some new players here to help us out offensively.
21:57But I still think from a Russian perspective, they're a step below you guys.
22:02From a defensive perspective, they're above you guys, but not as elite as I think the statistics
22:08show.
22:09They are expected to finish in second place in this division, one win less than you guys
22:15are expected to have.
22:16They're going to play the Jets and the Dolphins twice, just like you guys are, plus the Raiders.
22:21The rest of their schedule is just as difficult as your schedule, pretty much.
22:24So it's going to be a challenge.
22:27They get it started right there week one on Wednesday out in Seattle.
22:30So, you know, no rest for them after losing in the Super Bowl.
22:35They have to play the Seahawks right again to start the season.
22:38But they're a very good team.
22:39I don't know what the distraction is from the coaching perspective.
22:43But I really do like Josh McDaniels and the head coach if he's, you know, if he's focused,
22:50if they're there.
22:50I think they've got a good coaching system and a good play caller.
22:53And I really like that team.
22:55Warren, what's the best way for our audience to find their way to your book?
22:59Well, you've got two ways.
23:00If you want a printed copy, it's 619 pages.
23:03You can head on over to Amazon.
23:04If you don't necessarily need a printed copy, you can save yourself a few bucks and go to
23:09sharp.football, sharp.football, and use code BILLS, B-I-L-L-S, and you'll save 50% off
23:17the early bird price, which gets it down to less than $15.
23:21And I'm telling you, you're not going to find a better usage of less than $15 to get prepared
23:27for the 2026 season.
23:29All that information, plus Rich Rebar.
23:32So what a deal.
23:34He's got a section on every single team, all the players that are fantasy relevant, as
23:41well as he breaks one detailed player down in a little bit more depth.
23:46All of that is in the book as well.
23:48So he's outstanding.
23:49The last time I talked to him, he said, look me back up when the book comes out, when the
23:54previews are out.
23:54Yeah, we've had, we've had, he's been out of work, Rich, sorry, Ray, our editors, we've
24:00got a number of guys who've just been cranking on the book, just like myself.
24:03Now that it's done, I hope you bring him back on because he's an outstanding guest as well.
24:08Yes.
24:08Love Lord Reeves.
24:09Very good.
24:10Warren, congratulations.
24:12Thanks for your time today and good luck.
24:14Thanks, fellas.
24:15Sharp.Football slash Bills.
24:18Early bird price is $30.
24:20It's $15 if you use the promo code.
24:24I almost forgot what that was called for a second.
24:26I buzzed that Bills chapter today and the stuff about the receivers is pretty stark.
24:33I mean.
24:33This just in?
24:34He just told you, but yeah.
24:36If you need more confirmation, it's there for you.
24:40Crazy stat on Shakir, historically.
24:42Crazy stat on Shakir, historically.
24:42Crazy stat on Shakir, historically.
24:43Crazy stat on Shakir, historically.
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