00:00Well, thanks for being with us here on the Active Weather Network and the forecast feed.
00:04We're looking at the Ring of Fire.
00:05On Monday, we talked with a special focus on the heat dome itself.
00:10Now we're looking at the fringe of the heat dome and the concept of the Ring of Fire.
00:14I kind of like the way this graphic worked out.
00:16I basically just pulled the most recent 36 hours worth of storm reports
00:21and then literally just grabbed the center of high pressure and the red zone
00:26from our Ring of Fire conceptual graphic.
00:29It worked out pretty well.
00:31Unfortunately, for those of you in the upper Midwest, the Northern Plains,
00:34this band of thunderstorms was a tremendous wind producer,
00:38131 mile-per-hour gusts in two spots in South Dakota back on Monday morning.
00:43Another episode of storms broke out even late yesterday into the Panhandle region of Texas.
00:48There's a weakness in the ridge down into parts of the southeast.
00:52But you'll notice, and also I should mention the Tuesday afternoon severe weather threat,
00:57strong winds, trees, power lines down in upstate New York.
01:01But in between, look at this.
01:02We've got this large area with just too much sinking air, and that's the core of the heat dome.
01:07Now, the core of it really is off from Ohio westward early in this event,
01:13but we're going to step east into midweek.
01:16And as we just click ahead, you'll notice the map doesn't change, just the storm reports go away.
01:21I'm going to click here, and you'll see the intense heat.
01:25And just conceptually, the green zone is where we have all this thunderstorm activity.
01:29And it's not just the upper Midwest.
01:31We're going to increasingly see, as the heat dome begins to step east,
01:35we're going to begin to see an increasingly active corridor across the New England states as well here this week,
01:41too.
01:42So let's take a look at some of the big picture view of things.
01:45And as we begin, let's go back to the present time here.
01:49We have Tuesday afternoon and evening, and I'm going to plot the big ridge.
01:53It's basically right over Kentucky and Tennessee where they had that deadly flooding in Richmond and Madison County.
01:5854 killed in Madison County over the weekend.
02:01Very sad event there.
02:02We're going to be watching.
02:03I'm going to kind of cheat this east.
02:05This is the movement that this is going to take over the next few days.
02:08And watch as we go from Tuesday evening to Friday evening.
02:15And you can see, we begin to see the 594 contour just kind of implode upon itself.
02:21It shrinks down by Friday night to Saturday morning over southern Virginia and parts of North Carolina.
02:26And then it's lost.
02:29And the greatest contour is 588.
02:31This is the thickness of the atmosphere.
02:35At least one way of looking at it is actually technically the height at which you ascend into the atmosphere.
02:42It's the height at which you reach 500 millibars.
02:44Kind of complicated, but just keep it, think of it in terms of this.
02:48When the atmosphere is hot, you have a large heat dome, hot air expands.
02:54So you have to go higher up in terms of the number of meters before you hit this certain pressure
03:01threshold.
03:02And basically this mountain of air is beginning to kind of weaken a little bit, almost eroding away into Saturday.
03:09And we lose that 594 line.
03:12And the greatest line is 588.
03:14The contour is every 6 decameters.
03:17And you can see by Sunday and Monday, it's still hot in Philadelphia.
03:20But, but, the ridge is beginning to shift west.
03:24And I think I begin to see 594's return early next week.
03:28Here's one of them over Mexico and West Texas, where you'd expect it to be.
03:32And another one begins to present itself over, well, eventually it's Tuesday night, Wednesday.
03:38This is 594, 594, 594.
03:41Approximately where you'd expect it.
03:43But it's not in the northern plains and it's not in the northeast.
03:46So, overall, the ridge is beginning to shift east.
03:48This map here shows the vertical velocity.
03:52Is the air moving upwards or is it not?
03:55And maybe just as a gradual, slow sinking air.
03:58What I wanted to point out was the lack of vertical velocity here.
04:02And this is your heat dome.
04:04That's that cap.
04:05That's that sinking air where there's just not much opportunity for updrafts to get going.
04:10It's just sunny.
04:11The heat is trapped.
04:12And you're not going to get thunderstorms in that area on Wednesday for the most part.
04:16Around the fringe, you will.
04:17Not in the core of that.
04:19So, let's take a look at the overall forecast for storm motion.
04:22Where will the storms be moving?
04:24And you're going to see, I'm going to bring the arrow out here.
04:28Generally, this is Thursday when the heat dome begins to shift east into Virginia, North Carolina.
04:33Storm motions generally around the rim of the heat dome.
04:39Where storms form, this is how they would travel.
04:42And again, it's around the perimeter of this heat dome.
04:46So, again, we're going to begin to see the door open up for more storms in New England.
04:50More storms in the Midwest.
04:51Fewer storms, though, into areas around Virginia and North Carolina for a couple of days.
04:58For a few days.
04:59Until the weekend rolls in.
05:00So, here's storm amounts of rainfall.
05:03Just storm totals.
05:05QPF.
05:06Quantitative precipitation forecast.
05:08Model rainfall, basically.
05:11By the 4th of July, 2 p.m.
05:13Look at this.
05:13The repetitive nature of these storms.
05:16I was talking to Matt Benz on the forecast floor.
05:18About increasing concern for flash flooding in the upper Midwest.
05:23Maybe not so much on Wednesday itself.
05:25That's the first day in which we see more rain in Wisconsin.
05:28Central Wisconsin.
05:30Parts of Iowa.
05:30But by Thursday and Friday and Saturday, it begins to ramp up.
05:35And then by Saturday night and Sunday, we get concerned about some storms that interrupt outdoor plans in the Northeast
05:41as well.
05:42And that's going to bring relief from the heat.
05:44But it's at the expense of some of your outdoor plans.
05:46So, let's just take this more granularly.
05:48In the short term, we've got those storms.
05:50They're currently rumbling southeast through parts of upstate New York.
05:53That's a current threat.
05:55Severe thunderstorm watch until 8 p.m. for many in upstate New York.
05:58Also, later this evening into tonight, there's going to be a new trend into tonight.
06:03Northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan.
06:06Gusty thunderstorms.
06:07So, here's our graphic for that area.
06:09Marquette, Houghton, Ironwood.
06:11Rhinelander, Wisconsin as well.
06:13Damaging winds, the main concern.
06:15There's another zone even tonight.
06:16This is the third severe risk map for just this evening.
06:21And again, all these areas around the periphery of the heat dome.
06:25With none of them focusing on the core of the heat dome.
06:28Because we're not going to see storms in between.
06:30Quick look ahead to Wednesday.
06:32We begin to get more concerned about damaging thunderstorm winds.
06:35Could be some big time hail out there as well.
06:37And some risk of flash flooding.
06:39Isolated tornadoes up in the upper Midwest.
06:41But Wednesday, wind and hail are main concerns.
06:45Also, some in New England.
06:46We'll see some strong storms Wednesday evening as well.
06:49That's your forecast feed.
06:50We'll see you next time.
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