00:07Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor.
00:13To discuss the latest affairs between India and Myanmar, it is a pleasure to invite Mr.
00:22Rajiv Bhatia, former ambassador to Myanmar and a very senior scholar in the Gateway House,
00:31a well-known think tank in Mumbai.
00:39The senior general Lange's visit to Delhi from 30th May till 3rd June was, I think, a very
00:51good development.
00:53It matters a lot to them, to Myanmar, that they have been invited to visit India officially.
01:09And the fact that this began from Bodh Gaya, which is the world's...
01:24We are the home of Buddhism, we are the home of Buddhists all over the world.
01:31And that, of course, that was very significant.
01:34And then a major issue in discussion was the rare earth minerals.
01:43It is also reported that now the Juntal is trying to fight against the Kachin independent,
01:59Kachin and the Karens, who occupy about 42% of the landmass so far.
02:10Without going into much further, I request you to comment, Mr. Bhatia.
02:17Thank you very much, Colonel Bhatia, I thank you and I thank Sam for organizing this.
02:28Let us try to decipher for the benefit of the viewers the context of the visit of President
02:38Wu Min Honglang and the main achievements of this visit.
02:45And I will be very brief so that then it can really be a conversation.
02:51So, first of all, Myanmar was under direct military rule from 2021 when the coup was arranged, which
03:04derailed completely the hybrid democracy, which was in operation since 2011.
03:12The coup was carried out by General Min Honglang.
03:16And then the end result of the coup was that the country stood fragmented and divided mainly
03:23in two parts, one which was under the control of the military government and the other which
03:30was very much under the management of a variety of ethnic groups and opposition groups, which refused to
03:39accept the authority of the military government.
03:43So, the civil war was going on, people were suffering, economy was in shambles, there was
03:50ostracization by the world community and slowly therefore military began to think in terms of trying
03:57to get out of this morass. And they thought that they would organize an election. Now, this election,
04:04according to them, was a fairly fair and representative election. According to opposition, it was a fraud
04:12perpetrated on the people. Be that as it may, elections took place, the new government came into being, and
04:20now the general, who was the military head and the head of the Tatmadaw, the Myanmar army, became the president.
04:29In that light, the issue comes as to why India decided to invite him. Again, you know, I will let
04:39the fact
04:39speak for themselves. India was going to host the International Big Cats Alliance Summit. You know,
04:47it's an organization which looks after the big cats and Myanmar is a member. So, Myanmar was invited to
04:54that summit. Then, lo and behold, the summit was canceled because of extraneous reasons. And that is when
05:03Nepito, the capital and New Delhi decided that it is time for a bilateral stand-alone visit. That is how
05:11the visit took place. And as you rightly said, Colonel, but right in the beginning, it emerged from the
05:18convergence of interest and perspectives of two countries. They both felt that they need each other
05:25for good reasons. Myanmar is feeling uneasy, having been excessively dependent on China. India is always
05:34guided by its neighborhood-first policy, wants good relations with an immediate, vital neighbor like
05:41Myanmar. And hence, the visit took place. So, the context was important. The respective motivations and
05:50drivers were very important and relevant. And now, probably you would like to say something on how you
05:58look at the outcome of the five-day visit because it was a very packed program for the president.
06:06Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Bhatia for bringing out some important points.
06:14I think it's fine that we invited the junta leader who became the president.
06:22But we have, you know, it's a delicate relationship. There are complexities in the
06:30India-Myanmar relationship because here is the military junta which holds just a little over half of the
06:42landmass as things stand. And then, you have the Kachin-Inbendami, the Karans and some other groups,
06:50but mainly the Kachins, who hold sway and, you know, it is very necessary for us to keep them engaged
07:01also.
07:03After all, there are people of these communities who are part of our, you know, they are part of our
07:13North East.
07:14They inhabit states like Manipur, Nagaland, at least these two,
07:23which share borders with Myanmar. At times, having been in Manipur in the late 80s, early 90s,
07:36my memory of a visit to Moreh, the border town of Manipur, which is the opposite to that in Myanmar,
07:48in Tamil. One has had the pleasure of seeing people come from morning to trade.
07:59And this was a place where you could enjoy masala dosa from the Tamils, chana bhatura from the Punjabi
08:10Sikhs. And, of course, Khao Shui by the Burmese who, Myanmar, you know, people who come in.
08:21I don't know what the state of that interaction is presently because a lot has happened in Manipur
08:28which concerns at least some of these communities.
08:34But whatever it is, India needs to, you know, do its balancing act and, you know, keep all these,
08:45all the groups which hold sway in Myanmar, keep them engaged.
08:54And, of course, our aim is to get, and we have to be very wary of China. We are capable
09:04of doing so and we,
09:06you know, we should not hesitate if ever when, and that's one of the, you know, major
09:19drives that we have to be into now. Both your points are very valid, Tanul, but the ethnic issue
09:27and the China issue. On the ethnic side, I think we need to stress to our viewers that this is
09:34a very
09:35diverse nation. There are eight major ethnic groups there. In terms of big and small, if we count, there
09:43are probably over 130 groups in the country. Now, among these groups, some are active on the eastern
09:52side, that is on Thailand side. You mentioned about Karin, they are important there and that
09:59rebellion by them has been going on since independence. Then the northern side along the China border,
10:05you have Shans and Kachans and a few other groups which play a very significant role in terms of
10:17bridging China with Myanmar. But our main concern, India's main concern is on the India-Myanmar border
10:25region, which is the western side of Myanmar. And here I would like to elaborate your point that the four
10:36Indian northeastern states, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and above that, right in the north, Arunachar Pradesh,
10:46all four of them have their borders touching Myanmar. And therefore, what happens on the Myanmar side is
10:54very, very important because they are ethnically related for centuries, for millennia. Now, this whole
11:01area is largely under the control of the ethnic armed groups. You spoke about Tamu Mori. As far as I
11:09know,
11:09according to the latest information, the border trade probably is not fully normal there at all.
11:15And so, it's important for India to keep in touch with groups which are holding control over that
11:23territory, whether it is Kachans or Chins or the Sagain groups. Or in the south, of course, you have the
11:31Arakan army controlling the Arakan region. Now, I've had the chance to, you know, attend some conferences
11:40where I found that the situation is changing in the country. The government is gaining more and more
11:50control. And ethnic groups, while they are aware of the need for unity, are doing their best to
11:58safeguard unity, but they have an uphill task. So, in that situation, as you very rightly said,
12:04Indian government has to do the balancing act. India follows its two-track policy. Namely,
12:11we maintain good cordial relations with the government of the day,
12:16but we also keep in touch with those who are trying to bring democracy in that country.
12:21Finally, with regard to the China factor, this is the most popular topic among all the Myanmar scholars.
12:29There is no doubt that Myanmar today is, sorry, China today is enjoying a major role in Myanmar. They have
12:37control over political, economic, diplomatic, geopolitical scenario. But I think other countries are not
12:46giving up. And that is the reason why Myanmar has developed good relations with Russia, Vietnam,
12:55Kazakhstan, Belarus, and certainly India. They are also trying to develop relations with other individual
13:03member states of ASEAN. And so, in that light, we can make a final point, which is about ASEAN.
13:10ASEAN has followed for the past five years the five-point consensus on Myanmar, essentially saying that
13:20the rival parties should stop fighting and start talking. But ASEAN has not been able to implement
13:28that consensus formula. And now that there is a new government, which is a limited democracy government,
13:35I think we must watch carefully as to what ASEAN will do in the coming months. That is where we
13:41are
13:41talking about internally as well as externally.
13:45Very, very well brought out, Mr. Bhatia. It is, you know, the, what has happened and there is now,
13:59whatever, a lot of what has happened, eventually, when we go back in history,
14:05the British are to blame, but that doesn't simply help us to just, you know, keep drum beating about
14:11that. But they did a lot of damage. They did a lot of damage. Look at Manipur, what size it
14:18was,
14:19the Maitei kingdom. And look at what it happened, what happened after, you know, the, they had a war in
14:271891. The Maitei was the last to succumb to the British. And then it is, you know, the British said,
14:37now let's dilute their power by injecting cookies. You know, cookies are part of the Chin, cookies,
14:47Mars into Manipur, including the valley. And well, I have seen all, you know, communities till the 90s
15:01live peacefully, but the bubble had to burst at some stage. And it did. And of course, China has a
15:10hand in
15:10it. We, we have to, you know, scare things. Now, as far as the democracy movement is concerned,
15:20we support it to the extent that there were members of that movement living in the house of Mr. George
15:28Fernandez, God bless his soul. In his, in the, in a part of his house, even when he was the,
15:36you know,
15:36became the defense minister, he didn't stop. But be that as it may, today, what, what we have to do
15:47is to,
15:48to be, you know, to just keep trying and try and get the best of, and, you know, even to,
16:00nobody's given a, you know, nobody's given a thought to it. But India is actually poised to be a very
16:08good
16:11intermediary between the dhunta and the, and the other. We, in the, in the past, we, the Mizo, the Mizo
16:28after a lot of, lot of blood was been spilled, and we were able to peacefully bring it. Here, again,
16:37we should try because we, it, it, it, it is just, we have to keep trying. We have to keep
16:48trying. Yeah.
16:49I think you are absolutely right there as well. When you were speaking about Mizoram, I remembered my own recent
16:57visit to that estate. It's a front estate as far as Myanmar is concerned. The other front estate also is
17:05Manipur.
17:07The ties are very old, they are very intimate and they remain live. So when trouble began in Myanmar, a
17:16lot of Burmese sought shelter in Mizoram because there are ethnic ties.
17:22When they are in trouble, they are going to come to their uncles and other relations and Mizoram simply welcomed
17:29them with open arms.
17:32And even though the governments were not able to perhaps extend as much assistance as they were expected to, but
17:40people came forward and helped to welcome the people who were affected by the conflict.
17:46The same thing or even in a deeper way, it goes to Manipur. The connection between the troubles in Manipur
17:53and the situation in Myanmar is very significant.
17:57It was quite unprecedented that regions on both sides of the border became disturbed around the same time.
18:05So in that light, I think I should explain that the government of India's policy is very clear.
18:12I think this is all India policy. We are now trying, the government is now trying to regulate the border
18:20movement and the inflow and outflow of goods in a regular, legal, lawful manner.
18:28As you know, you would have remembered from your own time, how much of illegal flow of goods, people, arms,
18:39drugs, and other kinds of international crime have been the part of the scenery.
18:44So now the present government is very clear that whatever is the free border movement regime that has to be
18:52restricted, the border has to be properly demarketed.
18:57And then smart measures have to be introduced so that all these negative activities are stopped.
19:06I think this is something that was discussed during the visit.
19:09And I want to assure you that both governments want a proper stability and security in the border area.
19:18Of course, critics say that you are talking to the wrong man because General Minonglang doesn't control much of the
19:25border.
19:26But, you know, the authorities on their side keep saying that they are in conflict with the ethnic groups.
19:36And sooner or later, Myanmar state will take control of the border region.
19:41So we have to wait and see there.
19:42There was one more thing I wanted to highlight because you very rightly began with that.
19:48You are pointing out that presidents coming to Delhi, but first touching down at Bodh Gaya.
19:57I think this was a very exceptional symbolism.
20:00It showed the old connection of the people.
20:04I want to assure you that when I was spending my three years as ambassador in Myanmar,
20:09and when I travelled around the country, I never ever met a Burmese who did not express the wish to
20:18visit India at least for once,
20:20so that he could go and offer prayers at Bodh Gaya, at the Mahabodhi Temple.
20:27So, yes, they see India as the land of the Buddha, which they must visit once in their lifetime.
20:33It is a very powerful and abiding bond between our two countries.
20:40Mr Bhatia, you brought out some very, very important points, very loosely.
20:47One is about the security and helping trade to carry on.
20:57We today have the capability.
20:59We have security forces which have the capability to handle the situation.
21:08because we have to accept the fact that during almost seven decades of Congress regime,
21:16or almost all the time, I am not a political person, but this is something which keeps coming up.
21:24But enough right decisions were not taken.
21:30We have seen ever since 2014 a lot of improvement in the North East security scenario.
21:39Here, it is very important to have the trade going like it used to in Moretamu and many other points.
21:52And keep the security with modern methods.
21:59As far as the Buddhism aspect, I cannot help comparing that Mr. U.S. Secretary who comes to India,
22:13he lands up in Kolkata and goes to the Mother Teresa, which raises so many questions.
22:23You know, he raises so many questions.
22:26And here is someone from, even if he is, you know, from a Shunta leader,
22:32but he has shown no doubts about the importance of his chance, his opportunity to visit Bodhgaya.
22:44Yes, I think moving from the cultural to the business side, which again you triggered my thinking on,
22:52is also very important.
22:55We must remember that five years of coup and civil war and instability have made the Myanmar economy very vulnerable.
23:05And so one of the key motivations of President Minong Lang coming to India was to see how the economic
23:14relationship and cooperation could be increased.
23:17On this, I believe he made a very big attempt to convince not merely the government, but also the business
23:26leadership in India, both in Delhi and Mumbai.
23:29He had extensive discussions with our business chambers.
23:33He even had a separate interaction with the governor of Reserve Bank.
23:39His delegation included governor of Myanmar Bank.
23:43So the idea seemed to be that if the trade has to be increased, it could be done through the
23:49medium of rupee chart transactions.
23:52And the general particularly highlighted the fact that there is immense potential for expansion of bilateral trade, which stands today
24:03only at about $2 billion.
24:05But they projected that in the next three, four years, it can go up to $5 billion if sufficient efforts
24:13are made.
24:14And in this context, we must remember that Myanmar exports to India are far more than India exports to Myanmar.
24:23So clearly, there is scope for expansion on both sides.
24:27And one more thing, Myanmar is very keen, almost hungry for new Indian investments, you know, going into various sectors
24:37in Myanmar.
24:38I believe Indian business leaders showed interest.
24:43And yet at the same time, I think they conveyed in a general manner that much will depend on how
24:51quickly stability and normalcy can be restored in Myanmar.
24:56So the challenge that the president and his government have to face are internal.
25:01And since obviously war is not the solution, not even the civil war, sooner or later, they will have to
25:09conduct dialogue with their own people so that Myanmar once again becomes a normal and peaceful country.
25:18Mr. Bhatia, thank you very much for a lot of ground that you covered and brought out some very important
25:26points in the Indo-Myanmar relationship and, you know, a lot of the dynamics of Myanmar's various aspects.
25:38Mr. Bhatia, thank you and I am sure we will have another opportunity to look at the situation again. All
25:50the best to you. Jai Hind.
25:54Jai Hind. Thank you very much, Colonel-sabh. All the best to you.
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