- 5 months ago
The United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz faces challenges. Despite efforts to choke Iranian oil revenues, reports indicate that numerous tankers continue to bypass restrictions, moving nearly a billion dollars worth of oil.
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00:06breaking news coming in at the top of this bulletin
00:10MEA has reacted to President Trump's reposting of a social media post
00:14calling India and China hell holes on the planet
00:18MEA spokesperson Randeer Jaeswal has said that
00:21and I quote him
00:22we have seen the comments as also the subsequent statement issued by the US Embassy in response
00:27the remarks are obviously uninformed, inappropriate and in poor taste
00:32they certainly do not reflect the reality of the India-US relationship
00:35which has long been based on mutual respect and shared interests
00:40so very strong statement coming in from the Ministry of External Affairs
00:43to the posting of a show by President Donald Trump
00:49and further the response of the US Embassy
00:53where the Embassy spokesperson has said
00:54India is a great country with a very good friend of mine at the top
00:59that's what President Trump had said at the top of the bulletin
01:17Hello and welcome, you're watching Statecraft with me Gita Mohan
01:20Tonight, two stories that expose a hard truth
01:23Power today is not just exercised through force
01:26but through control, access and presence
01:29You've probably heard that President Donald Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
01:33was meant to tighten the news around Iran's oil lifeline until it snapped
01:38a pressure strategy designed for economic suffocation
01:42But weeks in, the picture on the water tells a different story
01:46Reports suggest tankers are still slipping through
01:49and covert routes are still functioning
01:52So is this blockade already losing its grip in real time?
01:56Because in a system built on enforcement, even small leaks stop being noise and start becoming failure
02:02And then, shift to Nairobi, Kenya
02:05Where the Africa Forward Summit 2026 is pulling global powers into a new diplomatic arena
02:10India has been invited, but not confirmed
02:13And in a world where Africa's resources, markets and alliances are up for grabs
02:19The question is simple
02:20Can New Delhi afford to be absent when the rules of engagement are being rewritten?
02:26All of this and much more, but first up, the headlines
02:31Ahead of possible talks between US representatives and Iranian delegation likely on Friday
02:36Trump took to Truth Social and took a dig at what he claims
02:40An infighting between Iranian hardliners and moderates
02:43He said Iranians don't know who their leader is
02:45While the US is in total control of the Strait of Hormuz
02:51In another post, Donald Trump says he has ordered the US Navy to shoot at any boat
02:56Laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz
02:58He added that US minesweepers are clearing the Strait right now
03:04Journalists gathered in Martyr Square in Beirut
03:07And observed silence for the killing of journalist Amal Khalil
03:10In an Israeli strike in South Lebanon
03:12Meanwhile, the Lebanese president has accused Israel
03:16Of deliberately and consistently targeting journalists in the country
03:21US President Donald Trump has reposted American political commentator
03:26And radio host Michael Savage's podcast
03:28Where he referred to India and China and other nations as hellholes
03:33This was a racist rant calling for changes in the United States' birthright citizenship law
03:41Amid US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
03:43The deputy speaker of the Iranian parliament said
03:45Iran has received the first tolls from shipping in the Strait of Hormuz
03:49Though it's not clear who paid the tolls and how much was the amount
03:53The deputy speaker of Iran's parliament, Hamid Rezar Haji Babai
03:58Said the first revenues collected from tolls imposed on ships using the Strait of Hormuz
04:03Have been deposited into the central bank account
04:06President Trump had earlier warned that US would target those ships
04:10Which will pay Iran to use the Strait
04:12He also said there was no time pressure to end the war
04:15Though it is possible that a second round of peace talks could begin by Friday
04:20Iran said it is not possible to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
04:23Accusing the US and Israel of breaching the ceasefire
04:26In yet another development, the US Department of War in a post
04:30Said US forces have interdicted a sanctioned vessel
04:33That is transporting oil from Iran
04:35The statement said, and I quote
04:37US forces carried out a maritime interdiction and right of visit
04:41Boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel
04:43MT Majestic X
04:45Transporting oil from Iran in the Indian Ocean
04:48In a separate development, Lebanon and Israel both have reported attacks
04:53As second round of ceasefire talks take place
04:56Or are likely to take place today
04:58Meanwhile, a temporary ceasefire remains in place between Lebanon and Israel
05:03Though Israel continues to keep its troops on the ground in southern Lebanon
05:07Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil, who worked for Al-Akbar newspaper, was killed in an airstrike by Israel in South Lebanon
05:16US President Donald Trump thought a blockade would choke Iran, stop its oil, break its economy, force it to negotiate
05:24That was the promise
05:25That was the strategy
05:27But weeks into the operation, a very different picture is emerging
05:31Tankers are slipping through
05:32Oil is still flowing
05:34And the question now is blunt
05:35Is Donald Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz already failing?
05:40Start with the numbers
05:41According to reports, at least 30 plus Iran-linked tankers have managed to bypass restrictions
05:46According to reports
05:48Nearly a billion dollars worth of oil has already moved
05:51Despite the blockade
05:53That is not a small leak
05:55That is a structural gap
05:57Because a blockade only works if it is airtight
06:00If even a fraction gets through, the entire pressure strategy weakens
06:04And right now, enforcement is far from perfect
06:08This is not a statistic battlefield
06:10It is a moving system
06:12Ships switch off tracking
06:15Routes change
06:16Identities are masked
06:18A shadow fleet operates in the gaps
06:20Even under heavy surveillance, oil continues to move out of Iranian ports
06:25Which means the core objective, cutting off revenue, is not being fully achieved
06:30And that is the first major crack
06:34The blockade is not absolute
06:36It is porous
06:37And in economic warfare, partial success often translates into strategic failure
06:43But the problem goes deeper
06:44Because Iran is not just absorbing pressure
06:46It is responding aggressively
06:49Ship seizures
06:50Threats
06:51Direct control over passage
06:53Iran has effectively turned the strait into a contested zone
06:56Where no movement is guaranteed
06:58This is no longer one-sided enforcement
07:01It is a standoff
07:03And that standoff is disrupting far more than Iran
07:06It is shaking the entire global system
07:10The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil
07:15Any disruption here sends shockwaves across markets
07:18And that is exactly what is happening
07:21Hundreds of vessels stranded
07:23Oil supply disruptions at record levels
07:25Insurance costs surging
07:28The blockade is hurting Iran
07:30But it is also hurting everybody else
07:33Which raises a critical question
07:36If your strategy damages allies, destabilizes markets
07:39And still fails to fully stop your target
07:42Is it working?
07:43Because the goal was clear
07:45Force Iran into a corner
07:47Push it toward a deal
07:48But so far, the opposite dynamic is visible
07:51Iran is not backing down
07:53It is doubling down
07:54Refusing to reopen full access
07:56Linking any compromise directly to the lifting of the blockade
08:02Pressure is not producing compliance
08:04It is producing resistance
08:06And that is the second major failure point
08:09Misreading the opponent
08:11Iran has spent decades under sanctions
08:13Its economy is structured to survive isolation
08:16Alternative networks exist
08:18Informal trade channels operate
08:20Regional linkages remain active
08:23Which means a blockade does not create shock
08:26It triggers adaptation
08:28And once adaptation begins
08:30The effectiveness of pressure declines rapidly
08:33There is also the issue of escalation
08:35A blockade is not just economic
08:37It is military nature
08:38The United States has deployed warships
08:41Aircraft and thousands of personnel to enforce it
08:44Iran has responded with drones
08:46Seizures and threats
08:48Each move raises the stakes
08:50Each response increases the risk of direct conflict
08:54So instead of containing the situation
08:57The blockade is expanding it
09:00And that expansion is unpredictable
09:02Because in a high-tension environment
09:05Miscalculations are not rare
09:06They are expected
09:08A seized ship
09:09A misread signal
09:10A confrontation at sea
09:12Any of these can trigger escalation beyond control
09:15And maybe that is why
09:17Trump has fired U.S. Navy Secretary John Phelan
09:21A move no one saw coming
09:23Which brings us to the core question
09:25What exactly has the blockade achieved so far?
09:28Yes, it has intercepted ships
09:30Yes, it has disrupted flows
09:32But it has not stopped exports completely
09:36It has not forced a political breakthrough
09:38And it has not stabilized the region
09:40Instead, it has created a volatile equilibrium
09:44Where pressure exists
09:45But resolution does not
09:47And that is where the strategy starts
09:50To look less like a solution
09:52And more like a gamble
09:53Because a successful blockade does three things
09:56It cuts off resources
09:58It forces concessions
10:00And it shortens the conflict
10:02Right now, none of those outcomes are fully visible
10:05Oil is still moving
10:07Iran is still resisting
10:09And the conflict is getting more complex, not less
10:12So is it a failure?
10:15Not total failure
10:16But not success either
10:17U.S. has seized Iranian flag vessels
10:19In the Strait of Hormuz
10:21Even today, the U.S. Navy seized another tanker
10:24Linked to Iranian oil smuggling
10:26A day after the Islamic Revolutionary Guards
10:29Attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz
10:32What we are seeing is something more dangerous
10:35A strategy that is working just enough to continue
10:39But not enough to conclude
10:41And that may be the biggest risk of all
10:45Because incomplete pressure does not end conflicts
10:48It prolongs them
10:49And in a region as critical as the Strait of Hormuz
10:52Prolonging instability comes at a global cost
10:55Because this is not just about Iran
10:57This is about energy, economics and escalation
11:01And if the blockade cannot deliver decisive results
11:04Then the question is no longer whether it works
11:06It is how long the world can afford for it not to
11:11After Trump claimed to have ended eight wars
11:14And his initial statements at the beginning of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran
11:18That the war was waged to free Iranians from the theocratic regime
11:23Trump boasted of another achievement
11:25In a post on Truth Social
11:27President Trump announced that he was informed
11:30That the execution of eight Iranian women protesters
11:33Was stopped
11:34He added that four women would be released immediately
11:37And the other four will be sentenced to one month in prison
11:40This comes after Trump in an earlier post had requested the release of these women
11:45Iran's judiciary pushed back strongly
11:48Dismissing the narrative as misinformation
11:50Rights groups say the women were arrested during the January protests
11:54Meanwhile, Iran's judiciary said, and I quote
11:57The women who were claimed to be on the verge of execution
12:00Some of them have been released
12:02While others face charges that
12:04If convictions are upheld
12:06Would at most result in imprisonment
12:09Among those identified
12:11Bita Himati was reportedly sentenced to death alongside three men
12:15Including her husband
12:16Over allegations of attacking security forces
12:19Mehbooba Shabani, 32
12:21Was charged with the capital offense of waging war against God
12:25For allegedly aiding injured protesters
12:28She's currently being held in Mashhad's Wakilabad prison
12:32Earlier, Tehran executed a man convicted of spying
12:36For Israel's Mossad intelligence service
12:38Iranian media says the man worked in a sensitive state organization's
12:43Passive defense committee
12:44And had extensive contact with a Mossad officer
12:47This latest development comes
12:49At a time when the ceasefire deadline for war on Iran
12:53Has been extended for an indefinite time by President Trump
12:56A day earlier
12:58The New York Post reported that Trump said
13:01It's possible that a second round of peace talks
13:04With Iran could begin by Friday
13:07A major diplomatic gathering is descending on Nairobi this May
13:11And India has been personally invited to the table
13:14The Africa Forward Summit 2026
13:16Co-hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron
13:19And Kenyan President William Ruto
13:21Will bring together African and European heads of state
13:24On the 11th and 12th of May
13:26At the Kenyatta International Convention Center
13:29It is billed as a landmark reset
13:32In Africa-France relations
13:34But for New Delhi
13:35The significance runs far deeper
13:37Than a bilateral Franco-African affair
13:40During French President Macron's official visit to India
13:43In February 2026
13:45He recalled the joint invitation
13:47Extended alongside President Ruto
13:49To Prime Minister Narendra Modi
13:51To attend the summit
13:52The India-France joint statement
13:55Confirmed that Prime Minister Modi
13:56Thanked Macron for the invitation
13:58And reaffirmed India's support
14:00In areas of mutual interest
14:02Including energy, transition, artificial intelligence
14:05Health, agriculture
14:07And the blue economy
14:09India's attendance, however
14:11Has not been confirmed
14:12New Delhi has made no formal announcement
14:14But the question of whether India shows up in Nairobi
14:17Is far more consequential than it may appear
14:22As the world navigates
14:24Through complex geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges
14:27Our partnership assumes particular significance
14:31It will be a message of stability
14:34In a turbulent world
14:36Of reliability
14:38In an uncertain one
14:40And of solidarity
14:41In difficult times
14:43Together
14:44India and Africa
14:46Are not just partners in development
14:48We are partners in shaping a better world
14:53The Africa Forward Summit
14:54The Africa Forward Summit is not a routine diplomatic gathering
14:56It is a deal-making platform
14:58Structured around thematic roundtables
15:00Covering energy, finance, agriculture, artificial intelligence, the blue economy, health and industrialization
15:36Over 1,500 global business leaders
15:37This year, even as France chairs the G7
15:40The opportunity to position itself as a bridge between these two blocks
15:44On African soil is rare and potentially defining
15:48Missing Nairobi is not simply an absence from a summit
15:52It is an absence from the room where the rules of engagement with the world's fastest growing continent are being
15:59written
15:59Why does Africa matter so urgently to India right now?
16:04The numbers speak for themselves
16:06India is already Africa's third largest trading partner
16:09With bilateral trade reaching $103 billion in 2024-25
16:15A 17% year-on-year increase
16:19India has completed over 200 development projects across 43 African countries
16:25Extended concessional loans exceeding $12 billion
16:28And its cumulative investments on the continent surpassed $75 billion
16:34A 3 million strong Indian diaspora provides further depth to this relationship
16:40Yet, despite the scale, India's engagement has often been described as fragmented and insufficiently strategic
16:49The Africa Forward Summit offers India a high-visibility platform to change that narrative
16:55To present itself not as a passive partner, but as an active partner
17:00Indispensable stakeholder in Africa's transformation
17:04With the fourth India-Africa Forum Summit of its own
17:08Expected in New Delhi later this month
17:10Nairobi would serve as a powerful curtain raiser
17:14Signalling to African leaders that India's engagement is consistent, proactive and present
17:20Not just convened on its own terms
17:23Then there is the critical minerals question
17:25Perhaps the most strategically urgent dimension of India's Africa calculus
17:30Africa holds roughly 30% of the world's critical minerals reserves
17:35India's national critical minerals mission, launched in 2025
17:39has already identified Africa as a priority geography
17:43New Delhi is reportedly exploring mineral asset acquisitions in Congo, Tanzania and Mozambique
17:49and has secured exploration land in Zambia for copper and cobalt
17:54China, meanwhile, already dominates Africa's mining and midstream sectors
17:59and is not slowing down
18:02The Africa Forward Summit's agenda covers exactly this terrain
18:06sustainable financing, supply chain development and industrial partnerships
18:11India's presence in Nairobi would allow it to make the case directly to African heads of state
18:16that it offers something China does not
18:20Technology transfer without debt dependency
18:23democratic governance frameworks
18:25and a development model rooted in South-South solidarity
18:29This is not just economic diplomacy
18:32It is resource security for India's green and digital future
18:36The summit's agenda also zeroes in on renewable energy
18:41an area where India has a compelling story to tell
18:44Africa accounts for nearly 60% of a global renewable energy potential
18:49Yet solar power contributes only 3% of the continent's electricity generation
18:54India's own solar journey from near zero to one of the world's largest installed capacities in under a decade
19:02is precisely the model African nations are seeking
19:05India's International Solar Alliance of which over 30 African nations are members
19:10gives New Delhi an institutional head start that no other partner can replicate
19:17Add to this the summit's focus on artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, health manufacturing and the blue economy
19:25Every single one an area where India has demonstrated capacity and credibility
19:31The Africa Forward Summit is in many ways tailor-made for what India has to offer
19:37The invitation from Accra and Ruto is not ceremonial
19:40It is a recognition that Africa's future cannot be shaped without India at the conversation table
19:48India's attendance at the Africa Forward Summit remains unconfirmed
19:52New Delhi may decide that a France co-hosted event sits outside its preferred multilateral framework
19:58But the cost of that calculation deserves scrutiny
20:02In a world where the United States is retreating, China is advancing and Europe is recalibrating
20:08Africa is the arena where the next phase of global power is being contested
20:13India with its unique credentials as a democratic global south leader
20:17A technology powerhouse
20:19And Africa's long-standing development partner
20:22Has every reason to be in Nairobi on the 11th of May
20:26The question is not whether India belongs at the Africa Forward Summit
20:30It clearly does
20:32The question is whether New Delhi recognizes in time that the continent's future is being shaped right now
20:39And that an empty chair in Nairobi sends a message India cannot afford to send
20:46That's all we have in this edition of Statecraft
20:48But before we go
20:49Tens of thousands gathered and cheered to welcome Pope Leo in Equatorial Guinea
20:55Ahead of his final mass on his four-nation Africa tour on the 23rd of April
21:02Take a look at the visuals
21:03Goodbye and take care
21:07La Slam street
21:13Le congratulations the ovusory
21:18People judge
21:20Ellije
21:20UpOO!
21:22Se sientes
21:24El path I say
21:25It's nice
21:26Bubmulloso
21:28Jevam
21:29All my
21:34Obmaya
21:34Thank you very much.
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