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00:01Okay, so the NBA Finals is a little bit over 48 hours away. We have some time to take a
00:06deeper
00:06look at some of the props. There'll be a lot of bets available for this. So let's check in with
00:10Kyle Soppe, who joins us now for his thoughts on the upcoming NBA Finals. Kyle, great to have you
00:15here on the show. So, all right, this is a tight, tight series, it would appear. We have the Spurs
00:21overall favored to win the series, but not by a lot. And we have the Spurs favored also in game
00:27one of the series. But let's start off with the series itself. You have San Antonio minus 205,
00:34you can get plus 172 on the Knicks. And Kyle, the reason why this is the case is simply one
00:40reason
00:41only. The Spurs have the home court. I think that this would be a dead even spread here, probably
00:47minus 115 on both sides or 110 if the Knicks had home court here. So what do you make of
00:53the series?
00:53Let's start there. Well, I think they might be favored for two reasons. You've got home court
00:58and you've got that big number one guy protecting the bucket that's, you know, the same size as him.
01:02So that definitely factors in here. I have the Spurs favored, but not by as much as I wanted to.
01:08I don't know how deep you are in the numbers and the spreadsheets and stuff, but I put all my
01:12numbers
01:13in and they came out light on the Spurs, even though I kind of like them to win every individual
01:17game.
01:17I'm not showing much value. I've got them favored by just over two and a half points in game one.
01:23So not really much value anywhere. I will lay the game in a half for the series here. I think
01:28they're going to have the advantage across the board. Everybody's playing up this big rest
01:33advantage that the Knicks have. And sure they do, but the Spurs have three days off too.
01:38For a team that's been playing every other day for a month, three days, you got to feel like an
01:42eternity. So I don't think they're exactly limping into this. They're the better team. I think they're
01:46just a better version of the Knicks. You've got a left-handed point guard, a big scoring big.
01:50And to me, they're just a better version. I think it'll be a competitive series,
01:54but I'd be surprised if this goes the distance.
01:57Okay, fair enough. So now let's take a look at the first game, which tells me everything that I
02:00need to know that you're taking the Spurs if you only have them by two and a half. And the
02:04odds
02:04makers are saying four and a half right now. Total of 218 and a half. The game will tip off
02:10840 p.m.
02:11on Wednesday night. So if my math is right and I'm not good at it, Kyle, you telling me two
02:17and a half,
02:17I see a four and a half there. And by the way, I think that this line will be four
02:20by the time
02:21they tip off. I think there will be some pullback here on the Knicks.
02:24I think you're probably right. And I think if you're a Spurs backer, you're smart to wait here.
02:29New York's obviously going to be a very public team. You see all the celebrities, all that good
02:32stuff. It'll be even worse when this thing goes to the garden. But yeah, I think if you want the
02:36Spurs, you wait on it. I'm light on them. So I'm not touching the spread or the total in this
02:40one. I come in two points light on the total too. So I'm not going that direction. I'm living in
02:45the
02:45props market. That's where I'm going to attack this series until I get some distance. If this
02:49thing goes to New York and it's like a coin flip game, then we could be talking San Antonio. But
02:54until then, I'm going to wait and see what we've got in this series in game one when it comes
02:59to
02:59totals and spreads. All right. So now let's go to some of the bets that you like and we'll hit
03:04on
03:04the prop market and naturally a lot of different options that don't normally present themselves
03:09during the regular season and maybe even in the playoffs. But you like in particular a lot of
03:15unders. And so I like your thoughts on that. I do. I'm all in on the unders. I come in
03:20on the
03:20next when it comes to, you know, the spread and things like that. But Mitchell Robinson under three
03:25and a half points. I get that it's ugly. I get that it's not comfortable. We did this with Rudy
03:29Gobert a month ago. It is what it is. No big guy scores on the Spurs. It's really that simple.
03:36Mitchell Robinson, given his role last round, just over 13 minutes a game. If you want him to get to
03:41four points, he's going to have to score it above his season average on a per minute basis. You're
03:46telling me he's going to go above his permanent average against a generational defender with a
03:51broken pinky. Like to me, that's a lot to ask. I understand that three and a half points isn't a
03:56very big number. I don't think San Antonio goes hack-a-shack. So I don't think you have to sweat
04:00free throws there. My other, my best bet in this game would be Mikel Bridges under one and a half
04:05three pointers. I just don't see enough volume to realistically get there. If you're talking two
04:09made threes for an average to above average shooter, you want at least five attempts. He's
04:14only doing that once a series this postseason. I don't think you get much of that. I don't think
04:19the Carl Anthony Towns offense is going to really function quite the same way with Wemby guarding
04:25him. And that just doesn't leave open looks. And that's what Bridges is doing. He's shooting over
04:2845% when the looks are wide open, under 30% when they're not. I think the latter comes to
04:34fruition
04:34here. You see like a one for three kind of day, just not enough volume for Bridges to get there
04:38in this market. All right. Now let's go to the series bets, which you can put in and certainly
04:44some head to heads that you like here as well with Ananobi. What do you, what do you make of
04:49some of
04:49these? Yeah. Ananobi over Champagne when it comes to rebounds, he's just a better rebounder. We're
04:55getting minus 135, which is a pretty good price tag here for a guy that I think is critical to
05:00the
05:00success of the next champagne. You could do without him. I'm not saying he's not valuable,
05:06but he's not the player that OG is. So if you're talking minutes downside in a market like this,
05:10to me, this is a pretty strong bet. It's not juice too heavy. OGs averaged up the rebound two feet
05:17closer to the rim. So that tells me that they want him rebounding. Whereas that's really not the case
05:22with the Spurs. They're just kind of, you know, you've got the big guy in the middle and you're,
05:25you'll content to get rebounds elsewhere. So I'm not going that direction. If you're looking for
05:30upside, De'Aaron Fox to lead this thing in assists, it's seven to one right now.
05:35Stephon Castle is a turnover waiting to happen. So there's that with the Spurs being favored. I
05:39don't think they embrace the variance that comes with Castle. So I think it's Fox leading the show
05:44and then Brunson's just going to be asked to score a ton for the Knicks. And those are the top
05:48three in
05:48this market. But I think Brunson's shooting and Castle's shooting, that leaves Fox to set everything
05:53out. I like him a lot here at seven to one. Kyle, let's look at the MVP market. I'm trying
05:59to think
05:59here, and maybe I'm just a prisoner of the moment, as they say, has there ever been a seven foot
06:04three
06:04or four guy to win the NBA finals MVP? I mean, Wemby would be that at minus 180. I like
06:10I'm thinking
06:11back in the past to like Shaquille O'Neal and Kareem and like Dirk Nowitzki. Like, I mean,
06:18is it generally a guard or a forward? You know, LeBron and some of those guys?
06:24Yeah, especially in today's game, you see garden wings guys that handle the ball. But Wemby kind
06:29of does that. I get that he's seven and a half feet tall, but he does a little bit of
06:32everything.
06:32And if you want the Spurs to win the series, to me, there's you take the 20 cent discount and
06:37take
06:37Wemby to win the MVP. I get that Castle's been amazing. I get that they have other options.
06:42Wemby's the MVP if they win this thing. Like, that's just how this plays out. We saw with Mahomes
06:46when the Chiefs won the Super Bowl. Like, he's going to win MVP. So take the 20, 25 cent discount.
06:52Go Wemby MVP if you want the Spurs to win the series.
06:55Welcome back to Newswire here on Sports Grid. We got Kevin Walsh in the house. Going to be a very
07:00busy week for Kevin because we've got the Stanley Cup on Tuesday, the NBA finals on Wednesday,
07:05and then it's every other day until we get to the World Cup. So Kevin's going to take a deep
07:10breath
07:10tonight with some Major League Baseball and then tomorrow, and then it's all set to go. Kevin,
07:14great to see you. Happy Monday to you here on the show. All right, so what was your takeaway Saturday
07:20in watching the Spurs take care of business? I watched the majority of this game, I would say,
07:27and even though OKC did come back and take a quick lead, I believe, in the second or third,
07:32I never really felt like they had their stuff going in this game. I thought the Spurs,
07:36I thought OKC would win going in, but as I watched the game, I thought, oh,
07:39San Antonio is going to be playing in the finals.
07:41Yeah, the Saturday game itself was not all that surprising. As somebody who said,
07:49I thought the Thunder would win the game. I didn't say that with a world of confidence.
07:54I didn't bet either side heading in to game number seven, and the thing that I thought
08:00would give the Spurs a chance in that game is actually trusting their three-point shooters more.
08:07Sometimes in a game seven where points are so hard to come by, Craig, who can get me loud and
08:13somewhat easy baskets? And that was Julian Champagny making six threes in this game. That's,
08:20you know, 50% of what the Thunder put up as a team. There was, I think, entering into the
08:24third
08:25quarter, Champagny had made five, and I think all of Oklahoma City had made seven. So you think back
08:32to when the Cavs rolled the Pistons in that game seven, they, you know, they started the game super
08:37hot from three, and they established that base lead, and that's what the Spurs were excellent at,
08:43really, in all seven of the games, was just early starts, fast starts, and getting out in front,
08:48and it's what they did again here. You cannot praise this season enough for San Antonio.
08:56Of course they want more, but I think with, in just eliminating Oklahoma City, it isn't hyperbolic
09:04to say Victor Webinyama has now officially put himself on track to be one of the 10 greatest
09:12players in the history of basketball. And it's not, you're not being mean or ridiculous to say
09:20anything less than that will be disappointing. He should shatter the Defensive Player of the Year
09:25records. He should win multiple league MVPs and multiple championships. And a lot of people,
09:33Craig, have been pointing to how no one has repeated since Golden State. And the Thunder were this
09:38sure bet to do it. And I had heard people kind of caution the OKC hype with, look at Boston,
09:46look at Denver, look at Milwaukee. I thought the Thunder were in a completely different class.
09:50They were younger, they were better, higher floor, all of that to me. They got hit with a little bit
09:55of injury. They ran into Victor Webinyama. The Thunder may never get back, right? And not just
10:01because the Spurs are going to win five straight, but the league evolves. But the Spurs, to me,
10:07it's not as much about some Spurs dynasty, right? I know we're going to talk about the matchup in a
10:11second. But Victor Webinyama has really now, Craig, put himself in a class of player. The first guy
10:20since LeBron, really. Since LeBron made the finals at the same exact age. That's what we are watching
10:25and talking about now on a regular basis. Yeah. You know, it's funny. Years ago, I was told this
10:30would be Zion Williamson. And then I was told this would be Luka Doncic. And now we actually have a
10:35guy
10:35doing it in Victor Webinyama. Like, the hype was actually real, finally, on a player in the NBA.
10:40Okay. Okay. So the Spurs are four and a half point favorites in game one. Total is 218 and a
10:47half.
10:47I've said before, and I could be wrong in reading the line here, but I sort of think the Knicks
10:52will
10:52end up being four point dogs come opening night on Wednesday. I don't think it'll be more than that.
10:58And the Spurs are also minus 205 to win the series, which certainly I believe, Kevin, if that
11:05the Knicks had home court, it'd be a pick them basically in the series. That's how I think
11:09how tight this would be. But you got to make the Spurs a pretty heavy favorite here. They have the
11:15home court and get game seven home. I mean, come on. And they've won on the road, by the way,
11:19too, I should mention. So let's start off with game one between the Knicks and Spurs and then go to
11:23the series. So as far as game one goes, one book was sitting at five and a half. And for
11:30a basketball
11:31game, there isn't the same rush, Craig, as maybe, you know, a Super Bowl line or a college football
11:35line. But I bet the five and a half right then and there, because I agree with you, that number
11:40felt
11:41inflated off of the game seven height. Yet I know that the Spurs are going to get a couple of
11:48days
11:48the rest here right off Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. But there's still a rest advantage for the Knicks
11:53who have been in this rust spot and have rotated between incredible comeback victory and just
12:01start to finish dominance. And I think the Knicks are going to be ready for this spot.
12:06I, I believe that the Spurs were the only team who could eliminate the Thunder in the postseason.
12:16But the Thunder are not the only team who could eliminate the Spurs. And the Knicks are playing
12:23the best basketball. I mean, statistically, the league's ever seen just from a, and I don't mean
12:30like analytically, I mean, just like points for me, points for you, gap Knicks. Like that's just how
12:37dominant this stretch has been, Craig. And I wouldn't be surprised if the Knicks continue to roll.
12:45Because the Knicks victories have been so loud, Craig, that for the Spurs, right? The Spurs
12:53have lost a couple of games. Some of them, they could chalk up to Wemby leaving early with injury
12:56or ejection, right? Spot, whatever it might be. If they lose, and I know this will sound crazy to
13:01people, but if they lose game one by 15, 20 points, you're, that's, that's rocking. That's not
13:07happened to this basketball team here. I do expect the New York Knicks to win this series.
13:13Hmm. So the, uh, the favorite to win the MVP, I was reminded, I was thinking of a big man
13:20who's
13:20won MVP in the, uh, in the NBA finals and Jokic is the most recent one there. So that, that
13:25definitely
13:26passes the sniff test to me. What, what I'm going to say, Kevin, and you'll remember it because again,
13:31I'll be wrong here, but if I end up being right in my 5% chance, you'll say, oh my
13:36gosh, Craig said it.
13:37I think if the Spurs win the championship that Wemby does not win the MVP, I think somebody else
13:43is going to pop. I know it sounds crazy. I think so. I think there'll be a guard or some
13:48swing man
13:49to win the MVP of the finals. Of course, the Knicks have Jalen Brunson. I'm not going to go away
13:53from
13:53him, but that's my boldest prediction of the season. It's very, very bold. You're sitting at 60 to
14:00one on Stefan Castle. I would imagine Spurs win. It's not Wemby would pay in the 20 to one range
14:08and
14:08you would just get, you get, you'd get Knicks if you want. Have a great show tonight, Kevin. Thanks.
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