- 7 hours ago
Long throw-ins, loads of corners and VAR ruining the "beautiful game". Everyone seems to think football is sh*t. But is football actually worse than it used to be, or have we all got our Barclaysmen tinted glasses on? Adam Clery digs through the archives of previous seasons and breaks down the numbers behind this claim.
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00:00Right, hello there everybody, welcome to the Adam Cleary Football Channel, and football, and more specifically the Premier League, is
00:08s*** now, isn't it?
00:10Or at least that's what everyone's saying, isn't it? Like set-piece goals, low blocks, a lack of entertainment, that
00:16sort of thing.
00:17The inference is that our great game is much less exciting than it used to be, because so many teams,
00:25don't they, play this negative, restricted football,
00:28and even the really good teams, are now so focused on like the marginal, nerdy, numbers-based approaches, they do
00:36not have the free-flowing flair that once they did.
00:41But we are here today, my friends, to ask the question, is that actually true? And if it is, is
00:51it really?
00:54Right, so to get us underway, and indeed what set this thought off in my head, these are the results
01:01from this round of Premier League fixtures.
01:04Now I am recording this before Brentford vs Wolves, so if that finishes like 5-4, I'm going to look
01:11really stupid,
01:12but of the 20 teams that play in this league, the best league in the world, remember, 9 of them,
01:19so far, have failed to score a goal.
01:23Meaning that just one solitary blank on Monday Night Football, tonight for me, last night for you, would mean that
01:30half the division could not so much as score a goal.
01:34We've had 3-0-0s, 2-1-1s, only Arsenal scored more than a solitary goal on Saturday, and even
01:42that was like 0-0 up until the 89th minute,
01:45and only Man Utd scored more than two goals.
01:50And if you topped all of that up, right, that is an average this round so far of 1.3
01:56goals per game,
01:57which I think we can all agree is fucking terrible, it's minging.
02:01And it's also way below the average so far this season, which is now just over 2.7 goals a
02:08game.
02:08Now, for a bit of context here, and this video is going to be full of a bit of context
02:13here, right,
02:14that is down considerably from two seasons ago, where the Premier League saw over 3.2 goals per game,
02:22which is really good, and it was a record high.
02:24And it's also down on last season's 2.9 goals per game,
02:28which was, if you remember, still pretty good.
02:31So in the historical context of the Premier League, 2.7 goals per game,
02:37which is what we've got this season, is actually perfectly normal.
02:43However, yes, you are correct, you may have noticed with your eyes there are some caveats here.
02:50Of those 2.7 goals per game, nearly 28% of them are now from set pieces,
02:56and that is a record high in the history of the division,
03:00and a massive jump up from the 20% that was last season.
03:05But then that's only a problem if you somehow find, like, long throw-ins,
03:11WWE-style corners and floated-in free kicks,
03:14as somehow less exciting or less worthy than other goals.
03:19And the narrative around this season is that most people, maybe not you,
03:24but most people somehow find less of a spectacle in goals like that
03:29than they do from a great bit of individual play,
03:32from a flowing passing move, or, God forbid, a total fucking screamer.
03:38So you look at both of those numbers, that overall goals are down a bit,
03:43and set-piece goals are up quite a lot,
03:45and you can start to see where all this yawning is coming from.
03:50Now, me, oh, thank you so much for asking,
03:53I don't personally give a shit where goals come from,
03:56so long as, please God, Newcastle United actually score some.
04:00But one stat I don't think I've seen anyone mention
04:03that does feel quite important here is this.
04:07The amount of nil-nils we're getting have jumped back up as a statistic.
04:13We only had 11 all of last season, and we passed that mark in, like, January.
04:19So now they've more than doubled to 23,
04:23with most teams still having, like, 10 games left.
04:27We have had 84 games this season where the away team has failed to score,
04:31and that's, like, just about one in three,
04:34and we've had 72 games where the home team has failed to score.
04:38And that's just under 25% of all games this season.
04:43Like, nearly a quarter of matches have seen the home team draw a blank,
04:48and that is also a record high for the Premier League.
04:53Now, not by loads and loads, last season it was, like, 22%,
04:57but I do think that is pretty striking in terms of, like, perception.
05:02So we're now, this season, having more games where one or both teams fail to score,
05:09and even in the games where they do score, they're scoring less goals,
05:13and more of those goals are what people would consider to be unexciting.
05:18So you can get the vibe, can't you?
05:21In fact, here's a mad one for you that I had to sit and manually count out myself,
05:26not in one single round of Premier League fixtures this season
05:31has every team managed to score a goal.
05:35And if you think that's quite a weird stat to bring up, right,
05:38that used to be my one and only regular bet.
05:43I would physically walk into a bookies and put a quid or two
05:46on both teams to score in all 10 Premier League games.
05:51And you'd be surprised how often that paid out for me.
05:55It would have not done it once all this season.
05:58Then you've got stuff like ball in playtime,
06:00which is a stat nobody had heard up until about two years ago.
06:04That's down while teams look to stretch the margins,
06:07set up set plays, run down clocks, what have you.
06:10And there are also virtually no thrashings anymore.
06:15Nobody in this league is getting a beating.
06:17Like, this graph from Opta is absolutely nuts.
06:20The number of games won by four or more goals this season
06:24has just totally fallen off a cliff.
06:27The record for that is 33 times in a season, right?
06:31And that was set just two seasons ago.
06:33So nearly every single game week,
06:36at least one team was getting an arse whooping.
06:40And yet this season, it has only happened six times.
06:44In fact, if you go all the way back to the last one,
06:47which was Arsenal 4, Leeds 0 in January,
06:50only one team has even scored four goals since then,
06:54with Liverpool putting five past West Ham.
06:57And I do think, of all the many, many stats you can,
07:01and obviously I will, bring up during this video,
07:04I do think that one weirdly paints the best picture
07:09of what the problem is here.
07:11The games are now usually so incredibly tight,
07:14the margins so narrow,
07:16that every single team in the league
07:18has started to play within themselves,
07:21play a lot more conservatively than they ever have before.
07:25And there are a few quite good reasons
07:28why that's happening.
07:29Like, first up, there are currently eight teams
07:31in this division playing European football this season,
07:34which is obviously fucking nuts.
07:37The expanded format of those competitions as well
07:40mean that the number of games
07:42is now monumental on those squads.
07:45Like, take Nottingham Forest, for example, right?
07:47Last season, they played 43 games in all competitions.
07:51This season, they've already played that many,
07:54and if they do manage to get past this round
07:56of the Europa League,
07:57they're going to finish the season
07:59with at least, at least 54 games.
08:04And that is a team that went out of both domestic cups
08:08in the first possible game.
08:11And then you've got Newcastle, for example,
08:13who have played 58 games already,
08:15and a run, let me dream,
08:18to the Champions League final
08:20would constitute a 63-game season for them.
08:25Crystal Palace, likewise,
08:26they've had to add another six European games,
08:28plus the knockouts, plus the qualifiers,
08:31into a season where they lost Mark Gaye
08:33and Eberichie Eze.
08:35And the thing is, right,
08:36the teams who are more accustomed to European football
08:39might not necessarily be feeling this,
08:42but their players definitely are.
08:44If you are an established international
08:47for your country and a first-teamer
08:49at a Champions League team,
08:51there are 77 fixtures for you to fulfil this season.
08:56And that is right before,
08:57let us not forget,
08:58you head over to the United States
09:00to play an expanded-format World Cup
09:03in about a billion-degree heat.
09:07There's going to be eight games at that tournament
09:09if you want to go all the way to the final,
09:11so that is 85 games for you in total,
09:14and 92 if you were either at PSG or Chelsea
09:19and went all the way in the Club World Cup last summer.
09:22And the thing is,
09:23FIFPro, who are basically the closest thing
09:25football has to a trade union,
09:27they have done extensive studies on this.
09:30And like two or three years ago,
09:32they published a report saying that
09:34for player welfare,
09:35nobody should be playing more
09:37than 55 games in a season
09:40with at least a full four-week break
09:44in the off-season.
09:45And that is if you are fully fit
09:47and don't get injured.
09:49Which, of course, players do
09:50in every single season.
09:52We're seeing the number of total injuries
09:54and matches lost to injury
09:56going up and up and up.
09:59Last season, there were 337 separate injuries
10:03to Premier League players
10:05that forced them to miss games of football.
10:08And we have already this season
10:10gone beyond that number.
10:13And I know exactly what some people will say there.
10:16That's just what squads are for, isn't it?
10:18It's part of a manager's job
10:20to rotate as players and keep them all fresh.
10:22And if you're a team
10:24that's good enough to get into Europe,
10:26then surely you're a club that's big enough
10:28to have a deep squad.
10:30And well, yes, okay,
10:32but two things there, I would say.
10:34First off, PSR.
10:36Nobody's really able
10:37to, like, pack a squad full of talent anymore.
10:40And certainly, Forest, Palace and Spurs
10:43were not enriched or enhanced
10:46off the back of surprise continental qualification,
10:50were they?
10:50And secondly,
10:52the thing about rotation is
10:54it does not lend itself
10:56to good football.
10:59Like, familiarity does,
11:00synergy does,
11:01partnerships,
11:01coordination,
11:02that kind of thing, right?
11:03Yes, you do need a squad of 20 players
11:06to compete on multiple fronts,
11:08but what you need to play good stuff
11:10is, like, 11 players
11:13who all understand each other.
11:14And as a result, right,
11:16what feels so clear to me now
11:18when you watch a game of Premier League football
11:20is that every single team,
11:22regardless of where they are on the table,
11:24set up in ways
11:25designed to minimise risk.
11:29Be that the risk of being too open
11:31in possession and getting done
11:32on a counter-attack,
11:33or just the risk
11:34of overworking your players.
11:36Now that everyone can make
11:38five substitutions,
11:39managers will so routinely
11:40haul off their best players
11:42just to keep them out
11:43of that injury red zone
11:45you hear about,
11:46which is sort of
11:46how much more susceptible
11:48to an injury you are
11:49when you're trying to do
11:50high-intensity actions
11:52like sprint, defend, etc.
11:54with a tired body.
11:55And don't get me wrong,
11:5610 substitutions in a game
11:57is great for
11:58losing all of your structure
12:00and giving away
12:00a really late equaliser,
12:02but it's less great
12:03for the sort of
12:04coordinated attacking play
12:06you would hope to see
12:07in the lead-up to that.
12:08And the mad thing is,
12:09I don't even really think
12:10you can criticise teams
12:12for being that risk-averse.
12:14Like, everybody now
12:15is well-drilled
12:17at both high, aggressive
12:18man-to-man pressing
12:19which disrupts teams
12:20building up in their own half,
12:22but even the most
12:23attacking sides
12:24are also accomplished
12:26at a deep, structured
12:28low block
12:29that keeps the opposition
12:30away from their goal.
12:32Like, open play football
12:34in the Premier League
12:35is a war zone.
12:37Now, teams spend
12:38as much time training
12:39what to do without the ball
12:40as they do with it.
12:42So with that being this, like,
12:44boggy mire,
12:45then inevitably
12:46set-pieces have become
12:48this alternative way
12:50to break the deadlock.
12:52And, yes, okay,
12:53stuff like this
12:54might not be
12:55the most exciting thing
12:56to watch,
12:57but a lot of games
12:58do then open up
13:00once some teams
13:02scramble it over the line
13:03from about, um,
13:05two yards.
13:06It's just that
13:07the 15
13:08or the 30
13:09or the 60
13:10or the 90 minutes
13:11leading up to that moment
13:13can be a little bit tough
13:15from an entertainment perspective.
13:18And then there's
13:19just everything else.
13:20Like, modern refereeing
13:21has taken a lot of
13:22tackling out the game,
13:24dribblers
13:24and maverick
13:25creative players.
13:26They are still there
13:28in football,
13:29but the better managers
13:30are good because
13:31of how they implement
13:33structure,
13:33so they're either
13:34curbed a bit
13:35or otherwise
13:36playing with a handbrake on.
13:37And then,
13:38even when they're not,
13:39when they're let off
13:39the leash
13:40where they're told
13:40to just go and make
13:41a difference,
13:43nobody on earth
13:44is running through
13:45something like this.
13:47And, like,
13:48the reality is
13:49that modern football teams
13:50have all just got
13:51really, really good
13:53at minimising
13:54what the opposition
13:55is able to do.
13:57And if you can
13:57minimise the opposition,
13:59you've got a really
14:00good chance
14:00of winning that game
14:02yourself,
14:02just
14:03not by
14:04very many goals.
14:06But the thing,
14:07right,
14:08the most important thing,
14:09the thing I want to end
14:09on,
14:10the thing that might
14:10get its own video
14:12at some point,
14:13is that if you
14:14look at football now
14:15and think,
14:16oh,
14:17this is shit,
14:18right,
14:20then,
14:20I hate to break
14:22this to you,
14:24but it's
14:25always
14:26been shit.
14:27The reason
14:28all of these stats
14:29have changed,
14:29but not by anywhere
14:30near as much
14:31as they feel
14:32like they've changed
14:33when you watch it,
14:34is purely,
14:36purely
14:36perception.
14:37We honestly,
14:38we romanticised
14:39certain eras,
14:40even the recent ones,
14:42because we just
14:43weren't as
14:44exposed to them.
14:45You remember,
14:45don't you,
14:46at the start of the season,
14:47270
14:49live games,
14:50all for you,
14:51on your Sky package,
14:52which sounds
14:54absolutely brilliant,
14:55until
14:57you actually
14:58have to start
14:58watching them.
14:59People are comparing
15:00this Arsenal team
15:02who've just ground out
15:03an attritional
15:03and dull win
15:05over Everton
15:05with
15:06that Invincibles team.
15:08And that is a team
15:09that as well as
15:10having players like
15:11Henry,
15:11Bergkamp,
15:12Vieira,
15:13Perez,
15:13Jungberg,
15:14all of these
15:14ballers,
15:15right,
15:15they also had
15:18loads
15:18of boring
15:20games.
15:21The only difference is,
15:22most people
15:23didn't see those.
15:24Back in
15:2503-04,
15:27Sky only had
15:2866 live games
15:30that season.
15:30There was a
15:31handful more
15:32on their
15:32pay-per-view
15:33service,
15:33so the total
15:34was around
15:35about 80 or 90
15:36matches.
15:36That is a
15:37fraction
15:38of what you get
15:39today.
15:40And just to keep
15:41using the
15:41Invincibles,
15:42right,
15:42purely as an
15:43example,
15:43they were on
15:44TV maybe
15:4510 or 12
15:47times that
15:47season from
15:48what I could
15:49personally
15:50work out.
15:51And most of
15:52those games
15:53were the top
15:54of the table
15:54clashes against
15:55like Chelsea,
15:57Liverpool,
15:57Man United,
15:58Newcastle,
15:59etc.
15:59What the
16:00football-watching
16:00public did
16:01not have to
16:02sit through
16:03were the
16:03attritional
16:041-1s,
16:05the 0-0s
16:06where they
16:06came up
16:07against teams
16:08who put
16:0811 men
16:09behind the
16:10ball and
16:11tried to
16:11suffocate
16:12the life
16:12out of the
16:13game,
16:13just like
16:14you think
16:14everybody does
16:15now.
16:16You'd catch
16:16the goals
16:17and the
16:17highlights
16:17where some
16:18brilliant
16:18moment would
16:19decide the
16:19match and
16:20you'd think
16:20wow,
16:21bloody hell,
16:22Arsenal are
16:23good,
16:23but the rest
16:23of it wasn't
16:25that different.
16:25This is the
16:26Everton game
16:27from that
16:28season.
16:28This is a
16:29great bit of
16:30play from
16:30Bergkamp,
16:31he slices
16:31the defence
16:32wide open,
16:32but the rest
16:33of the game
16:33is gritty,
16:35it's scrappy,
16:36it's 13
16:37players wrestling
16:38in the 6-yard
16:39box from a
16:40set-piece,
16:40it's a
16:40route 1
16:41ball,
16:42rebounded off
16:43the goalkeeper
16:43for the
16:44equaliser.
16:44Henri and
16:45Canu,
16:46who are so
16:46much better
16:47than the
16:47players we
16:48have today,
16:49somehow mess
16:49up this
16:502v1.
16:51Wayne Rooney
16:51heads the
16:52ball with
16:52his ear
16:53from under
16:54the crossbar.
16:55And there's
16:55no simpler
16:56way to put
16:57this,
16:57right?
16:57It was
16:58only season
16:59ticket holders
17:00who had to
17:00sit through
17:01a season's
17:02worth of
17:03stuff like
17:04this just
17:04to get to
17:05all the
17:06juicy good
17:06part,
17:06and back
17:07then they
17:08did not
17:09have social
17:09media to
17:10complain about
17:11it on
17:12immediately
17:12afterwards.
17:13football has
17:14changed massively
17:15in the last
17:1620 years.
17:16It's more
17:17physical,
17:18it's more
17:18structured,
17:19and yeah,
17:19probably a
17:20bit less
17:21expressive,
17:21but the
17:22main
17:22difference,
17:23I promise
17:24you,
17:25right,
17:25is honestly
17:26just your
17:27own exposure
17:29to it.
17:30270 live
17:31matches is
17:32great,
17:33fine,
17:33brilliant,
17:34yes,
17:34I'll take
17:34all of that,
17:35thank you very
17:35much,
17:36but there
17:36are still
17:37not
17:37270
17:39good
17:40matches,
17:41like football
17:42is and has
17:43always been
17:44a lot of
17:45the stuff
17:46people now
17:47call
17:47boring,
17:49and if you
17:49don't enjoy
17:50that,
17:50if you don't
17:50enjoy the
17:51battle,
17:51the anxiety,
17:52the scrapping,
17:53all of this
17:54unglamorous stuff,
17:55then
17:58maybe it
17:58ain't for you,
18:00sorry.
18:01So yes,
18:01why is football
18:03shit now?
18:03Well,
18:03because it's
18:05always,
18:05it's always
18:06been shit,
18:07you're just
18:07watching far
18:09too much of
18:09it,
18:10and if you'd
18:10like to watch
18:11far too much
18:11of me,
18:12see what I did
18:12there,
18:13you can click
18:13the subscribe
18:13button here
18:14at the Adam
18:15Cleary football
18:15channel,
18:15we do all
18:16sorts,
18:17tactics,
18:17thoughts,
18:18feelings,
18:19whatever I
18:19want,
18:20basically,
18:20and you get
18:20me across
18:21all the
18:21social medias
18:22at Adam
18:22Cleary,
18:22C-L-E-R-Y,
18:24why not?
18:25And yeah,
18:27the comment
18:27section should
18:28be good for
18:28this,
18:29am I right?
18:30I think so,
18:31otherwise I
18:31wouldn't have
18:31said it or
18:32turned it into
18:33a video,
18:33but I'm sure
18:33you've got
18:34your own
18:34thoughts,
18:34so please
18:35do let me
18:35know them
18:36down below,
18:36and until
18:37next time,
18:38when we'll be
18:38talking about
18:39more football,
18:40because I
18:40actually really
18:40like it,
18:42I'll see you
18:43then.
18:44Carabao Cup
18:44final this
18:45weekend,
18:45isn't it?
18:45That'll be
18:46good,
18:46goodbye.
18:46Bye.
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