- 6 hours ago
The USA have serious ambitious for the World Cup, with boss Mauricio Pochettino targeting the semi-finals? But is that realistic? Adam Clery looks at why, with a new system, and players like Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun, it might not be as crazy as it sounds.
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00:00Right, hello everybody, welcome to the Adam Cleary Football Channel and there is a World Cup this summer that you
00:06are hopefully aware of and US of A, MNT, BDOC, Mauricio Pochettino has said that the hosts should be getting
00:15to the semi-finals.
00:17Now naturally, this has elicited some gentle cynicism.
00:28Not for me, of course, I would simply never laugh at another man's dream, so let's instead have a look
00:35to see that with this squad and this system, it is possible for them to pull that off.
00:42Can the United States win their own World Cup?
00:47And I'll just say this, right, straight off the bat, right, we're going, ACFC, we're going to America for the
00:55World Cup, we're going to be based out of New York, it's very exciting and one of the things we
00:59are going to cover is the United States team.
01:02So if you're a fan of US soccer, that's the last time I'll do an accent, probably, do subscribe to
01:08us here because we're going to cover them a lot in the tournament and you don't want to miss that,
01:13do you?
01:16And of course, before we begin, a reminder that ACFC is brought to you in proud partnership with our investment
01:22buddies at Trading212, yes, hello, Teddy Sheringham, you'll hear more from them in a bit.
01:28But yes, so all things being well, this is likely to be the system and the starting XI that Mauricio
01:35Pochettino uses at the World Cup.
01:38The only problem you may have already spotted being that in 25 games as manager, he has never fielded this
01:46XI even once.
01:48Now he has sort of been close, this is the XI they fielded in the last game of 2025 against
01:54Japan, but in the two most recent friendlies against Belgium and Portugal, they reverted back to the 4-2-3
02:02-1.
02:02Obviously, it didn't go amazingly well. But yes, you're right, whatever, it's just a bunch of friendlies and also Tyler
02:08Adams and Dest and a few others were injured.
02:10So let's assume that it is going to look at least something like this in the tournament.
02:16And I'm pretty sure that it will, especially if they get out of the group because this system was the
02:21result of a pretty major tactical shift that Pochettino made last year.
02:26After a pretty disappointing run of results against Turkey, Switzerland and South Korea, he had a rethink and he moved
02:33the team to a back three.
02:35They then, as you can see, went unbeaten for the rest of the year and even smashed Uruguay in the
02:41process, which if you saw them play England, you will understand, is not an easy thing to do.
02:46And this works for the US really well, right, for a number of reasons.
02:50But the first one is that it platforms both Anthony Robinson and Dest as top-level elite box-to-box
02:58wingbacks.
02:59They both have incredible ball-carrying energy going forward and recovery pace going back the other way.
03:06And that means that it gives the USA a back five when they're out of possession, which is incredibly difficult
03:11to break down, but also a front five as soon as they get up the other end of the pitch.
03:17They have the energy to play both those positions.
03:20Like you see here early in the Belgium game, Robinson just runs the ball into the final third the way
03:26he does in the Premier League.
03:27Like attackers do not want to go with him, defenders are reluctant to jump onto him.
03:32It's a really effective way to get the ball up the pitch.
03:35And even when they have to use different players, the system works very well for them.
03:40This is a really good goal they got against Japan.
03:42This is Maxi Arfsten from the MLS, the wingback, attacking the outside space, which keeps Pulisic and, I think that's
03:50Zendias, the other number 10, quite narrow.
03:53Thus, when he does put the cross in, the latter is quite narrow and thus well-placed to connect with
03:59him.
03:59And it's this idea of using the wingbacks to keep Weyer or whoever, but most importantly, Pulisic narrow and near
04:07both the centre of the pitch and the forward that makes it work.
04:11Like Weyer, I think, is perfectly comfortable out in these wide areas.
04:14He doesn't need somebody to go outside him to get him into this space.
04:17But Christian Pulisic is still undoubtedly the star of this team.
04:22And to get the best out of him, you do need to find ways to get him into this area.
04:27Like he's had a pretty strong season for Milan, I think.
04:30And if we overlay his heat map from the entire season, you can see that is because Wiley plays wide
04:36and does go on the touchline.
04:37He spends so much time in these more central, more creative zones.
04:42And Wiley obviously can play wide.
04:44Like he's very comfortable doing that.
04:46If he ends up getting stuck out there, he is going to really struggle to impact games.
04:51He's going to really struggle to impact the tournament.
04:54But this system ensures that he can.
04:56Like again, in that Japan game, you can see the value of allowing him to attack more central spaces.
05:01Like he bursts through their defence for a shot here.
05:04And then later on, he repeats the trick and manages to play Balogun in for the goal.
05:09And then on the other side, I don't necessarily think Weyer is a lock in that position.
05:14Like Malik Tillman could play there as well.
05:16He's been very good when he's been called up.
05:19And they've also, I think, stuck McKinney there once or twice for robustness, even though he's also played centre-back.
05:26So they've got options in this final third.
05:28But either way, Pochettino has found a system that platforms them very, very well.
05:34So attacking, pretty good.
05:36But we do have to talk about their two most recent games.
05:40Because defensively, they have been less good.
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06:49Back to the video.
06:51Now, the manager has pointed this out himself, but they do struggle to keep up the intensity and concentrate off
06:57the ball as games have gone on.
07:00Like, they were actually pretty unlucky, I thought, not to be beating Belgium at halftime in that game.
07:04But the second half was a pretty major collapse caused by quite lazy defending.
07:11Pulisic here just lets a player run 80 or 90 yards into his half and then, not recognising the problem
07:19created by his teammate here having to cover for him,
07:22he just sort of stands and watches this all happen.
07:24But this next one is just terrible, right?
07:27Belgium get in, down the left, Doku gets doubled up on, and Weyer is there to look after the full
07:33-back.
07:34Now, I would say that's fine.
07:35You're actually pretty well set here.
07:38But this one run across the front of the goal gets the attention of all four of these defenders here.
07:45And after Belgium get it under control, you've now got seven players six yards from the touchline.
07:52You cannot ever leave all this space undefended.
07:57So I would say, for the US right now, the TLDR, people still say that, is they have a lot
08:03of good attacking combinations.
08:04They go forward very well, but that's currently being let down by lapses in concentration at the back.
08:11There's the same story against Portugal as well.
08:13They actually played really well.
08:14I thought they linked up excellently.
08:16They even pressed them really high and turned the ball over.
08:19But in critical moments, kept getting drawn towards the ball and leaving players open.
08:24Like, for the goal, there is just way too much space in their own box.
08:27They get caught out with the back heel.
08:30And with this chance earlier, a pass, a cross, or even the goalie just pushing it out, would be a
08:35tap-in.
08:36And Portugal kept finding these balls down the sides.
08:39Now, both these games were in a 4-2-3-1, of course.
08:43But the point is that when the US are open, they are really open.
08:47So then, they are attacking well, defending inconsistently, but is there enough here to say that a semi-final spot
08:56is actually realistic?
08:58Well, to answer that, my friends, let us look at some historical precedent.
09:03The US of A currently sit 16th in the FIFA World Rankings.
09:08And sure enough, they are the 15th favourites to win it because Italy were above them and they went out.
09:15So you might then think that a spot in the final four is a bit unrealistic, but it has happened
09:22before.
09:23In recent times, the four semi-final dark horses have been South Korea and Turkey in 2002,
09:30Croatia in 2018, and Morocco in 2022.
09:33And if you go back and you look at all of their FIFA rankings at the time, they were all
09:3914th or lower.
09:41So the US pulling this off might not be as daft as it sounds.
09:46The only problem is when you start to look at how all four of those teams actually did that.
09:53In 2002, South Korea only conceded one goal in the groups and then only one goal in 240 minutes against
10:03Spain and Italy
10:04before going out 1-0 to Germany, which is three goals conceded in the entire tournament.
10:11Turkey, likewise, shipped two against Brazil, sure.
10:14But after that, only one goal all the way to the semi-final where they lost the rematch with Brazil
10:21by a single goal.
10:23Now, obviously, neither team was particularly free scoring.
10:26They needed two golden goals, remember them, and a penalty shootout to get to the semi-finals.
10:31But what they were was a complete nightmare to try and break down.
10:36And then, in 2018, Croatia don't concede a single goal from open play in the groups
10:42and then get to the semi-finals by virtue of two penalty shootouts and a game going to extra time.
10:48Morocco, even more impressively, conceded just one goal on the way to the semi-final.
10:55Just one. One goal in five games where they played Croatia, Belgium, Spain and Portugal.
11:03And then, even that one goal was an own goal.
11:08And so, these World Cup dark horse stories all have one thing in common
11:15and that is absolutely massive, reliable defensive foundations.
11:20Now, I think that Florian Balogun has got a bit about him.
11:26Which, for any Americans watching that, that doesn't automatically translate for
11:30basically means he's that guy, buddy.
11:35Bet.
11:36He's not been lethal in front of goal this season.
11:39He's marginally down on his XG.
11:40But, if you look at his shot map from FopMob, he's had 59 of them this season
11:45and only five were outside the box.
11:48Which tells you he is a poacher.
11:51He is not snatching at stuff.
11:53He's finding great positions and can then finish well.
11:57And don't worry.
11:57I know exactly what you're thinking.
11:59What an amazing looking graphic that was.
12:02Adam, where can I, meaning you, get a piece of that?
12:05That's from FopMob, who sponsor us here on the channel.
12:08They are like our official data friends and I have the app on my phone.
12:12We use the heat maps because they've got that now.
12:14But, they've also got all the stats from the games, player profiles, fixtures, results.
12:19It is, it's the best football app you can get on your phone.
12:22Download it from the link in the description.
12:24Like I have.
12:26In fact, if you go back to the Copa America, he gets two goals for the US
12:30out of precisely nothing.
12:33And that is exactly the kind of centre-forward you need
12:36if your plan is to stonewall your way through a tournament
12:40and upset a lot of teams along the way.
12:43Which is why I believe, quite wholeheartedly,
12:46that Pochettino's dream of a US semi-final spot
12:49does not hinge on the performances of Florian Balogun
12:52or the creativity of Christian Pulisic,
12:55but instead on the performances of this man, Tyler Adams.
13:02Whether or not he has got the arsehole to drag them through this tournament,
13:07which again, I'll admit, might not translate brilliantly for our American viewers,
13:12but hopefully it comes across in the vibe.
13:15For Bournemouth, this season, his defensive contributions have been really, really solid.
13:19He started every single game he's been fit for
13:22and his numbers paint an encouraging picture.
13:25He's top 15% for total defensive contributions,
13:28so that's tackles, interceptions, headers, recoveries, just everything
13:31where you just don't ruin the other team's afternoon.
13:35And then he's the top 8% for just interceptions on their own.
13:39And I always think what that tells you
13:41is that he must read the game incredibly well.
13:45He can see the play developing in front of him.
13:47He can position himself in the right areas.
13:49And if you cast your mind back to the last World Cup, right,
13:52Sofjan Amrabat was clearly not one of the best defensive midfielders in the world.
13:59But in this tournament, in his team, he played like a man possessed.
14:04South Korea were the same in 2002,
14:06with Yusang Chul running the midfield for them.
14:09Turkey just had two guys going around, smashing into people.
14:12And in 2018, Luka Modric wasn't exactly winning loads of tackles,
14:16but he was sitting at the base of that midfield and helping Croatia to control games.
14:22The US needs someone who's going to dominate either on the ball or off it in the middle of the
14:27pitch.
14:28And I would argue, honestly, Tyler Adams does have the raw ingredients to do that for them.
14:34He just has to do that for them.
14:38And that's always the hard bit.
14:39And then, of course, you've got the final issue, which is this a defensive unit that can keep you clean
14:45sheets at a World Cup.
14:47Now, even if they've got Matt Freesingal, who I personally really like, then there's a bit of an issue here.
14:53Chris Richards is great.
14:55Mark McKenzie is really solid.
14:56Alex Freeman, I like, even though his inexperience would be a worry.
15:00And Tim Ream is older than me.
15:03So this here, this is the bit I think Pochettino needs to decide on urgently and then just lock in
15:10with it and sort of hope for the best.
15:12But if he gets that right and these other disparate elements do click into place,
15:17I do not think the idea of the US getting to a shock semifinal would be that much of a
15:25shock.
15:26There's always one team like this that goes and does it.
15:28So why not them?
15:30But yes, either way, I think whatever happens with the US is going to be a lot of fun for
15:35the rest of us to watch
15:36because either they'll be good and that's exciting or they'll be bad and that's something else.
15:41So let us know what you think of their chances in the comments down below.
15:44And, of course, don't forget to subscribe to us here at the Adam Cleary Football Channel
15:47because, like I said before, we're going to be out there.
15:49We're going to be doing this stuff and you don't want to miss it, even if you don't realise that.
15:53You don't. I'm telling you, right?
15:54So click that button and join the party.
15:56And you can, of course, get me across all the social medias at Adam Cleary, C-L-E-R-Y.
16:01And until next time, which I might as well tell you now, I'm taking a week off.
16:06I haven't had a break since Christmas.
16:08I didn't even really get one over there.
16:09So we've got two videos pre-prepared for you that you'll watch next week
16:12and then I'll be back when the Premier League is.
16:15I'm going to sit on my arse and then run a half marathon.
16:21That's my plan.
16:22Goodbye.
16:23Goodbye.
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