- 7 hours ago
Following a devastating derby defeat at the hands of Sunderland, and a mauling from Barcelona in the Champions League, Newcastle's season feels like a disaster. But could the solution to their problems be as simple as a change of manager? Adam Clery looks at the season, and the club, as a whole, to work it out.
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00:00Right, hello everybody, welcome to the Adam Cleary Football Channel and welcome also to maybe the second most requested video
00:09I've ever had.
00:11Is it time for Newcastle to move on from anyhow?
00:15After a season-defining week that has seen the 1-2 combo of defeats to Barcelona and Sunderland,
00:21Newcastle are now down to 12th in the table, they are 7 points of the Champions League,
00:26they are a bad weekend away from literally just being like right above the relegation zone,
00:33they are out of every single competition, it is a season that is now circling a very scruffy and quite
00:40hairy plug hole.
00:42So what we're going to look at today is what is going wrong with all of this,
00:47why is it going wrong and does the blame for those problems actually rest with the manager?
00:57And before we start, a very quick reminder as ever that we are brought to you in partnership with our
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01:18Well, comparative to this stage last season, Newcastle are 14 points worse off,
01:23they have lost 4 more games, 1, 5 less, are 12 goals behind and 5 goals ahead of what they
01:31were scoring and conceding.
01:32Now obviously, last season, Newcastle went on this brilliant run once they didn't have to worry about the midweek games,
01:39they won 7 of those 11 remaining fixtures, wound up in the Champions League places and won a cup in
01:45the process.
01:46But back then, after 31 games, they were already in the Champions League places and now they're 7 points away
01:53at least and 4 away from Europe in general.
01:56And then, you just look at the league campaign as a whole, after starting the season with 4 clean sheets
02:03in 5, which is brilliant,
02:05they've only had 3 in the last 20 sits and 4 away wins all season.
02:11And no matter what the extenuating circumstances might be, you cannot just hand wave those results away, they are undeniably
02:19very bad.
02:20Like the Man United win at St James' Park was brilliant, but it was the sole home win in a
02:24run of 5 that's also had losses to Everton, Brentford and Sunderland.
02:28But the big question, and the one I feel like I've been answering all season, is are the performances of
02:34the team actually reflective of this downturn in results?
02:39Do they deserve to be where they are?
02:41And the thing is, when you actually sit and watch Newcastle United play, I would say the answer to that
02:47question is massively open to interpretation.
02:51They're really predictable in attack, they keep having the same issues with breaking teams down with this 4-3-3,
02:57and they're stale in defence.
02:59They're repeatedly falling in to this really flat 4-5-1 that teams are very able to pass through to
03:06get in on goal.
03:07And they've really struggled to find a consistent attacking identity after what was a very disruptive summer.
03:14Like they started the season with Nick Voldemort up front scoring headers, and now they've got Anthony Gordon up front
03:21running in behind.
03:22Those are two completely different ways to play, and it never feels like they've settled on one of them.
03:28But the thing is, while that is all true, the real story of Newcastle United's season has been starting well,
03:36not capitalising on that good start, then losing control before finally losing the game.
03:43And I'm just going to back that statement up really quickly, because I can already sense people through the camera
03:49saying,
03:49what a load of rubbish, they've just been shite, which is not entirely untrue, but still not quite right.
03:59There's about a million different stats I could show you here, but we can boil it down to just one.
04:03Newcastle are the best of the rest in terms of their XG difference, what they're theoretically creating, minus what they're
04:12theoretically conceding.
04:13Which, yes, OK, that is only a number, and admittedly a number that makes your dad really angry when they
04:19talk about it on the telly,
04:21but still, that is a good number.
04:24And if you look at all the other teams that have good numbers there, they're doing good in reality.
04:30And yet, Newcastle United are not.
04:33They are 12th, which tells you the problems they are having on the pitch are clearly not straightforward.
04:40The Sunderland game's a really good example of what's going wrong.
04:43When you look at the numbers from that, Newcastle start well, they dominate, they force a goal,
04:48Sunderland try to play out from the back, they cannot deal with the press, with the energy, and they get
04:53caught out.
04:54But after that, coming out for the second half, and I was there, unfortunately, I saw it all with my
05:00own eyes,
05:01Sunderland adapted.
05:02They started going long more frequently into Broby to skip the press,
05:06who, because of the way Newcastle were marking, was always 1v1 on the halfway line.
05:12And this caused Newcastle massive problems.
05:14They lost control of the game, and in the end, were quite deservedly beaten.
05:18And you look at the respective XG, again, just human meat on this one, right from both halves,
05:24and you can see that is a team who started well, but then completely fell apart.
05:30And they did something similar against Everton, against Brentford, against Man City, against Barcelona,
05:34and, even though they still won that game, against Leeds.
05:39And so, the insinuation is that the reason behind all of this, the losing control in games,
05:45than not capitalising on the good start, that is the fault of one man, the manager.
05:52He's been figured out by the rest of the league, he isn't good enough to adapt his style of play
05:56and evolve the team.
05:57But what is absolutely maddening, right, to me, a man who simultaneously analyses football for a living,
06:05but also just happens to support Newcastle United, is that the answer to the question,
06:10is it Eddie Howe's fault, or is it something else, is yes.
06:17Yes, it is Eddie Howe's fault, and it is something else, and sometimes it's also neither of those things.
06:23So whatever side of that argument you happen to be on, Eddie Howe in, or Eddie Howe out,
06:29you're right, sometimes.
06:31Against Chelsea, he devised a system of rotation that saw Tino Livramento move into the midfield,
06:37completely disrupt Chelsea's man marking, it frees him up centrally,
06:41he found Joe Willock, and it gave Anthony Gordon a tap it.
06:44Then, against Manchester United, he was having Dan Byrne do these enormous blind switches of play,
06:51because the way their diamond press forces you widen and collapses around the touchline,
06:56meant it left loads of room on the other side to find Kira Trippiut.
06:59And then, in the home leg against Barcelona, his man-to-man press almost entirely shut down
07:06maybe the best attacking side in Europe, and would have seen them run out 2-0 or 3-0 winners
07:11with some better finishing.
07:1310 days or something that is elite-level tactical planning and execution,
07:18and I promise you, only managers in the very upper echelons of football are capable of doing that.
07:25But then, against Barcelona in the return leg, that same man-to-man system completely breaks down,
07:32Lopez pulls Tenali deep, just as Lewandowski drags Byrne into the same space,
07:36and then, because he's got the legs on him, he breaks into this yawning chasm their very simple movement has
07:42created.
07:43But then, worse than that, against Sunderland, you've got Kira Trippiut and Dan Byrne,
07:48your experienced players telling the rest of the team to calm down and play the sort of controlled game
07:55that you've been working on, but you've picked the most transitional and chaotic front three imaginable
08:01to try and execute that.
08:03Gordon Barnes and Alanga do not want nice, easy touches with their back to goal,
08:08they want to be bursting in behind into space in a game that's going back and forward.
08:13You cannot have that both ways.
08:15He also brings Newcastle's best crosser of the ball on in the exact same substitution,
08:20he brings the best target for those crosses off.
08:24And all of that, in the space of four days, is, like, literally season-ending on-field mismanagement.
08:32Like, it's tactical misreading and insufficient adaptation.
08:36It is nowhere near good enough for a team as good as this is.
08:41So if you've been on social media at any point and you're wondering why the fan base feels so divided
08:48over this manager,
08:50it's because whether you think he is good enough for this job or not, you are right.
08:56Across the season, he has been directly responsible for this team both over and underperforming its level.
09:03Like, very few games have been straightforward, whether they were a win or a loss.
09:07Now, at this point in the video, I did have a big thing planned looking at his 4-3-3
09:14system
09:14and how I think he does need to make some changes to that.
09:17Like, they've got Nick Voltemar, he's the best centre-forward at the club, in my opinion,
09:21but it does not suit him because you do not get any real support in the box from these two
09:26eights.
09:27So it's incredibly reliant on narrowing the other two forwards to get near him.
09:31But if you do that, then you absolutely need both Liveramento and Hall to give you that wick.
09:38And believe it or not, I went and checked this, these two have only started five games together
09:45in the league in this system this season.
09:48And then as well, I also hate the fact that when it defends, it drops into like a 4-5
09:54-1,
09:54which leaves the centre board way overexposed, chasing around balls.
09:57I mentioned that at the start of the video.
09:59But the thing is, I do not think talking about the system is really what anybody wants to hear right
10:07now.
10:07Okay, what we actually should be focusing on is this.
10:1122 points dropped this season from winning positions.
10:16And while obviously the tactics will be playing a part in that,
10:19I don't think you end up as the worst team in the league for holding on to a lead
10:25unless there is something a lot more serious happening.
10:29Even just hanging on to half of those points would have them clear of Liverpool in fifth.
10:34And hanging on to all of them, which yes, okay, no team in the history of ever has ever done,
10:39would have them second.
10:41When you look at the actual breakdown of how this happens, though, it's wild.
10:45Like, Newcastle have only conceded one goal in the opening 15 minutes of games.
10:51Newcastle is nearly the best in the league, but they've conceded 16 in the last 15 minutes,
10:57which is the worst.
10:59And the thing is, they've also scored 12 goals in the last 15 minutes,
11:03which is not shit by any stretch of the imagination.
11:06And the combined 28 goals in their matches in that last period is nearly the most in the league,
11:13which shows you how chaotic those matches are.
11:17Newcastle cannot exercise any control in the latter stages.
11:21In fact, the only team that's had more goals in the last 15 minutes has been the kings of chaos,
11:27Liverpool.
11:28And there are quite enormous similarities this season between what is going wrong for Arna Slott
11:33and what is going wrong for Eddie Howe.
11:36Like, as good as a lot of their players are, Liverpool have proved this season
11:40they don't have a squad capable of managing all the games they need to play.
11:45Salah and Van Dijk are well into their 30s and have some of the most minutes in Europe.
11:50Canardé and Gravibert, they aren't far behind them.
11:52And they're all having to hold things together while the squad tries to adapt to a high-spending
11:59summer full of players who have proven less than suitable for the team's style of play.
12:05An undeniably talented centre-forward who just doesn't quite click with those around him.
12:10An explosive attacker whose carelessness frustrates the life out of you.
12:14A Premier League-proven young player who has finally started to get some form after a really rocky start.
12:21A guaranteed goal scorer who was banging them in for fun last season,
12:25but thanks to a catastrophic injury, has done nothing for you so far.
12:29And the complete and total loss of last season's primary goal threat,
12:36who would occasionally win matches for you out of nothing.
12:41In Newcastle's case, they were forced to sell theirs.
12:44And in Liverpool's case, he's just fallen off a cliff.
12:47And thus, Liverpool are a team who start games really brightly,
12:51quite often take the lead, but then lose control as it goes on,
12:54and then concede late.
12:55And the reason I am telling you this is to show you that it's not a problem
13:00unique to Eddie Howe at Newcastle.
13:03It's an almost inevitable consequence of having a team full of players
13:07that have so many underperformers that the rest of them become massively overworked.
13:13Because the thing is, Newcastle, right, and I've said this in other videos as well,
13:17have not had a first-team player come in and immediately raise the level of this squad
13:24since Sandro Tonali three years ago.
13:28Don't get me wrong, they've added a lot of very good squad players.
13:31You can see some of them here.
13:32And they did spend a lot of money on Vultimard,
13:35but there was no expectation that he was going to come in
13:38and from day one be scoring you more goals than Alexander Isak.
13:43Every single one of these players was bought either for depth or for development.
13:48And they've also, and I know how sick people are of hearing about this as an excuse, right,
13:53but it doesn't make it untrue,
13:56played more games than any other team in Europe this season.
14:0051 already so far.
14:02They are on track for the second most games the club has ever played in its entire history.
14:07And they've had to do it all while navigating this.
14:11The most amount of games in the Premier League lost by first-team players to injury.
14:17And that graph, as staggering as it is,
14:19that is only the Premier League injured games they've missed.
14:23You start adding all the cups in the Champions League,
14:25you can always double the amount of time some of those have been out.
14:29I know that probably feels like I haven't yet made a particularly interesting point.
14:34It probably feels like a lot of excuses for a team and a manager
14:38who have just produced something a lot of people would find inexcusable, right?
14:43But I promise you, this is not me making excuses.
14:47This is actually just the context you need before you answer the really big question,
14:53which is, would this be better with a different manager?
14:57Because the reality is,
14:59Newcastle are not a team who currently have the resources to do everything they want to do.
15:06Like, you can't really afford to be going deep in three separate cup competitions
15:12when you've only got, like, the eighth highest wage bill in the division.
15:17Like, they're about 20 million or so behind Spurs and 20 million or so ahead of Forrest.
15:22So that's sort of, like, their level, right?
15:25But look what happened to those two clubs when you add the burden of European football
15:30to a lot of quite hasty managerial decisions.
15:33So you do have to be very careful here.
15:37What they have got here is a team that, on its day,
15:40is capable of beating the top three sides in the country
15:43on the way to winning a domestic trophy.
15:46But you stretch this squad too far, you get a couple of transfers wrong,
15:50and it does start to fall apart very quickly.
15:53So then, the big question, and I've really tried, by the way,
15:57just park how much I like Eddie Howe as a manager
16:01and everything he's done for the club, right?
16:03Just looking at this, purely dispassionately,
16:06do I think another manager, either right now or in the summer,
16:12could be doing better with this group of players?
16:15And, yes, yeah, I do think that he's made plenty of mistakes.
16:21I can't rule that out.
16:22But I also think it would be absolutely insane
16:26to look at the performances, the underlying numbers,
16:30the goals they concede on individual errors,
16:32the chances they miss, the pile-up fixtures,
16:35the relentless string of injuries,
16:36and then think the only reason this team is currently 12th in the table
16:41is the manager.
16:43Could another manager be doing a better job?
16:46Yes, maybe, but I do not think it's many managers,
16:50and I certainly don't think it would be a much better job.
16:54And, look, don't get me wrong, right?
16:56The blame for a bad performance in isolation
17:00always falls with the manager.
17:01You could have just done something else.
17:03You could have done something better.
17:05But when you look at the season as a whole,
17:07the problems this club keeps having
17:09come from the very top down.
17:11The lack of a coherent managerial structure at board level,
17:15all the stalled development plans,
17:17the failure to navigate spending regulations,
17:19constantly missing out on your top transfer targets,
17:22scapegoating the manager for those issues
17:26instead of getting them fixed
17:27is exactly what's got Tottenham in the mess they're currently in.
17:32But does that mean you categorically cannot change the manager?
17:36And, no, like I've said,
17:38I think Eddie Howe is personally responsible
17:40for a lot of quite damaging results
17:43the team has had this season.
17:45But what I will say,
17:46and what I just want to end on, right,
17:48is that if you can zoom out a little bit
17:51from some of the individual games,
17:53Newcastle start to feel like a club
17:55that is quite precariously placed
17:58as high in world football as they are.
18:01Like, to both get them there
18:02and keep them there,
18:04pretty much every single decision on field
18:06has had to be perfect.
18:09Like, until this season,
18:10it felt like every single transfer had worked out
18:13and the way they set up in the big games
18:16is always pretty much spot on.
18:18But as you've seen this season,
18:20when those decisions aren't perfect,
18:22this isn't a club that's ever going to be able
18:24to coast through purely on the depth
18:27or the quality of its players.
18:29So, if you think there's another manager out there
18:32who would come to Newcastle
18:33and guarantees you a better hit rate
18:36with these big decisions
18:37than Eddie Howe currently does,
18:39then it wouldn't be the worst decision in the world.
18:43But the potential pitfalls of getting that wrong
18:46or then taking a while to get things going
18:49are massive.
18:50This could be another very disruptive summer
18:53in terms of outgoings,
18:54and I think adding managerial upheaval to that
18:57is not something that a particularly well-run club
19:01would be looking to do.
19:03Unless, of course, it's a PR thing
19:05to mask its own shortcomings.
19:08Then, he's fucked.
19:09But yes, the bigger question,
19:11if you are any Cast United fan,
19:12are you Eddie Howe in
19:14or are you Eddie Howe out?
19:17Or secret third option,
19:18Eddie Howe shake it all about?
19:20Do hope you could be down in the comments
19:21and let me know your thoughts,
19:23any alternative suggestions,
19:24what's really gone wrong,
19:25any suggestions for how to fix it,
19:27constructive feedback,
19:28presumably, quite welcome.
19:30And you can get me across all the social medias
19:31at Adam Cleary,
19:33C-L-E-R-Y.
19:35Until next time, though,
19:36which, let's say,
19:37was actually really nice
19:39to be back at St. James' Park
19:41for like an hour or something.
19:43I've not been in, I think.
19:44Three years, maybe.
19:46So that was a fun treat for me.
19:49Until they ruined it.
19:50Goodbye.
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