00:00So Munitaka Murakami has been the surprise in Major League Baseball to this point.
00:06And I just wanted to give you the opportunity to lay your cards on the table with Murakami
00:12for a couple of minutes here because you had concerns.
00:16Absolutely.
00:17You also saw a path to immense big league success for Murakami.
00:21And it was the battle of floor and ceiling with Munitaka Murakami
00:26and how many Ks is too many Ks to stomach with him.
00:29I think we're finding out 26-year-olds so far this year through 35 ballgames,
00:35not only has accumulated north of one B-war already, 14 homers, 28 driven in, and 50 punchouts.
00:44A 961 OPS, a 164 OPS plus.
00:48By the way, a double on Monday night in San Diego.
00:50It was his first double on the year, so he's got 14 homers and one double.
00:54And Munitaka Murakami punching out 32.5% of the time, but walking 18% of the time.
01:02And the average exit velocity is literally a hard hit baseball.
01:06The average EV off Murakami's bat right now is 95.3 miles an hour.
01:11We're learning exactly how this type of player survives and thrives in Major League Baseball.
01:16I love new players that kind of push the boundaries of every kind of line that we try to create
01:23of what is possible.
01:25And I think this is exactly what Murakami is doing here.
01:29This is one of my favorite wait and seize because I think what we're already learning is that he's going
01:36to get his.
01:36But we've seen power guys with huge whiff have these torrid stretches, but can they extend them?
01:44Can they follow it up?
01:45We've had guys like Miguel Sano have full seasons that are extremely productive.
01:49Can they maintain it the next year?
01:52Sano chased a lot.
01:53Murakami doesn't.
01:54So I'm really, this is such a valuable like case study for like, you know, I guess I think about
02:01people in like law school, you learn about like, like legal precedent and stuff like that.
02:04Like the Murakami precedent is going to be a fun one because you have new like barriers to reference.
02:09How low can the contact rate go with if the EVs are, you know, is elite as they are.
02:16And the chase rate is as elite as it is because what's really fascinating with Murakami is he's really bad
02:22outside of the zone.
02:22Like he's not going to spoil pitches very well.
02:25And he hedges that by not chasing, but there's the one aspect that's really glaring to me.
02:32His contact rate is 59.6% this year.
02:36And if you want to go by like qualified hitters, um, since 2016, there's only been four qualified hitters and
02:45he, including him.
02:46So three qualified hitters with a contact rate below 60% that just made it through a full season and
02:52two of them were in 2020.
02:54So you can't even really count that.
02:56And Keston here on Miguel Sano.
02:57So no, did go crazy in that 2020 season.
02:59The only other is Joey Gallo in 2017.
03:02So essentially for Munitakama or Kami to continue to be this good, he's going to need to continue to be
03:10just an outlier in which we've never really seen before.
03:12What I will say is if you watch that man swing, I can subscribe to the idea that he's an
03:20outlier in the way that we have not really seen before.
03:22This is where it's difficult.
03:24Do you say, well, it's his first taste of the big leagues.
03:28The contact rate could improve and then he's out from that, you know, bottom qualifiers range, or does it go
03:36the other way?
03:37And you say, well, he's getting his right now, but wait till the book comes out on him a little
03:41bit more in the larger sample and all of these things.
03:44It could go either way.
03:46I don't know what's clear is this guy's going to hit enough mistakes to, to just be a big league
03:50bat.
03:52The one double thing is correct.
03:53Like he's got to hit bombs all the time.
03:55It's, it's a rare, rare, rare archetype that I go in circles.
03:59As you can tell, as I just led you in the circles that my brain goes around here.
04:03And I don't really have a definitive answer.
04:05And I think anyone that says they do is lying to you.
04:09Peyton, can you throw that Murakami graphic up one more time?
04:14So just overall contact rate, 59.6%.
04:17The only other full season, like you mentioned, to produce for a qualified hitter, a contact rate under 60%
04:24is Joey Gallo in 2017.
04:26I have it up.
04:27Let me ask you, do you know how that 2017 season went for Joey Gallo?
04:32He probably played pretty damn well.
04:34In 2017, Joey Gallo was a three-win player, hit 41 homers and had an 870 OPS.
04:42So that's, and I think that's a great, like added context to this is with a player like Murakami.
04:49I think when you have those borderline floor contact rates, but the quality that he has, and so many people
04:56have used that of like the guy that's like the 20 to 30 grade hitter being like, well, it could
05:00be Joey Gallo.
05:01And nobody has the angles and the power and the patience that Joey Gallo had.
05:05So it's like, no, it won't be.
05:06And we just spam that, because there's not really that many players that we can say could be like, that
05:11could make it work.
05:12So we remember the one guy that made it work until he didn't, this is the guy that can actually
05:17do the Joey Gallo thing and maybe do it a little bit better.
05:20So that, that part, I think is, is what's exciting.
05:23I do think though, with the territory is like, there's going to be months, maybe even seasons where it's like,
05:30damn, he's just been a disappointment this year.
05:32And then there's going to be months, maybe seasons where he's one of the more feared power bats in baseball.
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