00:00Let's get more on the Middle East. Professor Maziar Garbi is Director of the Center for Persian and Iranian Studies
00:07at the University of Exeter.
00:09Professor, welcome, good to see you. How do you read this? Are we now effectively seeing the end of the
00:15ceasefire?
00:18It's a very good question. I think the ceasefire has been eroded as it continues throughout the past few weeks,
00:25and the lack of diplomatic resolution, it's making the prospect of a conflict very likely.
00:32This is in part due to the fact that the United States is unable to rein in Israeli pressures on
00:40the continuation of the war,
00:42and at the same time the Iranians are not keen to make any concession that would precipitate into another war
00:49very soon in the next year.
00:52Pakistan's Prime Minister is saying the ceasefire has to be upheld in order to create the diplomatic space for progress.
01:00I mean, realistically, is that now possible?
01:04It is possible if there is sustained multilateral pressure that would make sure that a conflict,
01:13which is in no one's interest other than probably Israel and the right wing of the United States, doesn't continue.
01:18But I think the kind of bridges of communication and of pressure have found themselves in a kind of stalemate
01:29and have been an obstacle over the past few weeks, and I'm very pessimistic about any potential resolution.
01:36I think we are going towards the next stage of a conflict.
01:39Iran's Foreign Minister is visiting Beijing for talks.
01:44I wonder what role, if any, can countries like China further play in trying to facilitate international diplomacy?
01:53China is probably the only country that can exert substantial pressure both on the Iranian side and the United States.
02:02It is also a strategic partner of Iran, but also a major international player.
02:09So far, China has been playing diplomatically, but mostly rhetorically, but rarely intervening directly.
02:18And I think if the Chinese authorities think that it is now in their interest to make sure that the
02:24conflict doesn't escalate any further,
02:25that this is the right moment, also in view of the forthcoming bilateral meeting between Donald J. Trump and President
02:35Xi.
02:37The United States has now launched Project Freedom to try and marshal stranded ships through the waterway.
02:45Is that going to change anything?
02:46It will create a cause for American retaliation following being targeted by Iranian army.
02:59This is something akin to what probably happened in 1965 when, in the Gulf of Tom Kinn, the Americans had
03:08a naval incident because they were attacked by Vietnamese forces.
03:12And that created the pretext to then intervene massively with a long war against Vietnam.
03:21So this could be very much the moment in which the Americans, once attacked, will say, oh, you see, we
03:27have been attacked.
03:28Now we need to retaliate against the Islamic Republic.
03:31Professor, I'm sure we'll talk again in coming weeks for the moment.
03:33Thank you, Professor Maziar Ghabi, the Director of Center for Persian and Iranian Studies at the University of Exeter.
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