00:00Well, Martin Sklenla is the former Slovakian defense minister. I spoke to him about the Iran conflict.
00:08We are still in the phase of continued or even rising tension.
00:14We have seen a very active military phase in the conflict.
00:20What we now see is a prolongation of that.
00:24In the absence of negotiations or, you know, they have not gone very well.
00:33So here we see other forms of pressure being developed from the sides, right?
00:41I mean, the Iranian side as well as the U.S. side are trying to push as much pressure as
00:49they can on the other side for them to accept, you know, whatever the conditions might be in those negotiations.
00:57We will probably hear more about about that in the in the next days.
01:01But here we are both sides playing a very, you know, very I would even say dangerous, but also a
01:09very dramatic game of trying to make it to put as much pressure as possible on the other side.
01:15And what do you see are the real risks of this blockade triggering direct military confrontation?
01:24That remains to be seen how much how much risk there is of a of a of a of a
01:29re sparking the military operations.
01:32Right now, I see that the tension that is filled with this with this situation.
01:37I mean, the the the risk, the biggest risk is that any slight miscalculation or provocation or even an accident
01:49could spark what might become the next military phase of this of this conflict.
01:55Because in the in a time of tension, everything that happens, even if it's a small accident or episode might
02:02have might have bigger repercussions.
02:04Should European countries be preparing for a prolonged crisis or even military involvement?
02:12European countries certainly should be aware of the fact that the situation in the Middle East will remain not unpredictable,
02:20but but very complicated, challenging.
02:22And the crisis mode will continue certainly for some for some time, even if there is a negotiation going on.
02:29They might that the negotiations might go for a longer time.
02:32The the outcome of the negotiations might not be clear to anybody.
02:37We have seen this with the with the ceasefire before where the the terms of the of the agreement have
02:43not been confirmed by both sides.
02:47So the Europeans should count on having a complication in the Middle East for rather a long time.
02:54This is on top of the of the more complex and more unpredictable world that the Europeans have to deal
03:01with,
03:02with the with, you know, with the aggressive Russia and and the less predictable positioning of the United States than
03:10than what they were used to.
03:11So they certainly should be looking for how they want to make sure that they have an active role in
03:17the in dealing with this situation.
03:18And given that, what should policymakers in Europe be doing right now to mitigate those risks that you've outlined?
03:27Yeah, they should be looking into options what to do.
03:30They want to be active.
03:32The European citizens, they they expect European Union to be a global player.
03:36This is one of the one of the regions, one of the crises that that Europe should be engaging in
03:45in in in in the sense of making sure that the European interest is protected also in the Middle East.
03:51The European countries.
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