00:00And let's get more analysis on all of this now with Sean Bell, who's a retired Royal Air Force, British
00:05Royal Air Force Vice Marshal and a military analyst.
00:08Sean, really glad to have you back with us here today. Thank you.
00:11First, can I get your reaction to this extraordinary threat from Donald Trump to target Iranian infrastructure?
00:18And of course, in this language that's simply shocking for a world leader to use, does it mark a major
00:23shift in this war, do you think?
00:26Good afternoon, Paul. I mean, I look at this through, you know, it's day 38 of the Iran war.
00:31I look at this through a military lens. The president is the commander in chief of the biggest military, the
00:37most capable military superpower in the world.
00:40And you therefore, the military you serve, they are prepared to fight.
00:44They're prepared to deter the nation's enemies, fight them, and if necessary, lay down their lives.
00:48They expect their strategic leader to have gravitas, to be dignified, to be measured, and certainly be consistent.
00:58In other words, the commander's intent is really clear here.
01:02None of what we're seeing in that language is coherent with that approach.
01:05But I suspect what we're seeing is that frustration that despite it being a U.S. superpower,
01:11despite the fact they've hit something like 13,000 military targets, decimated the Iranian military,
01:17they don't seem to be winning the war.
01:19Iran may be a different regime, but it's stronger and more hard-nosed.
01:23They've still got their missiles, they've still got their drones, proxies, and they're controlling the Straits of Hormuz.
01:28And now we know that they're actually having twice as much money flowing because of the oil revenues.
01:34They're getting tolls from the Straits of Hormuz, and it certainly doesn't feel like they're on the verge of capitulating.
01:40No, and militarily speaking, Sean, destroying civilian infrastructure like bridges or power stations or desalination plants,
01:48does that constitute a war crime, or could they be deemed military targets?
01:53And if Donald Trump does stay true to his threats, do you think that there could be checks and balances
01:58to ensure that the targets are actually military ones?
02:02Yeah, it's an interesting one, Paul.
02:04I mean, I think it's good to talk about it because just because it's civilian infrastructure
02:08doesn't necessarily mean it's a war crime.
02:10War is a whole-of-society enterprise.
02:12You've got a defense industrial base that is generating the missiles, the guns, the ammunition,
02:19and the like that is supporting the war.
02:22So just because you call it civilian infrastructure doesn't necessarily make it a war crime.
02:26I think what's interesting is that, to date, the American and the Israeli campaign's been focused on air defense systems,
02:34radars, missiles, the defense industrial base, the uranium enrichment facilities.
02:39But as the target set gets expanded, it's inevitably going to have more civilian infrastructure in it,
02:46and therefore there'll be a much closer eye to try to make sure that those are militarily important.
02:52I think, for me, the issue about legal or otherwise, I mean, it's not entirely clear to me,
02:57I'm not a lawyer, but whether the, you know, plucking Maduro out of Venezuela was legal,
03:02the case has not been made by America as to whether this invasion decapitated leadership
03:07and bombing another country is legal.
03:10I think the real question for me is, will the next generation, this next phase of bombing campaign,
03:17actually help deliver the strategic objectives of the war?
03:20It doesn't feel like that.
03:22That's very interesting.
03:23Sean, as a former Royal Air Force pilot yourself, I have to ask you about this incredible operation
03:29a couple of days ago that rescued this weapons systems officer, this American airman,
03:34after he'd survived that ejection from the F-15, and he hid and was evaded, captured by the Iranians.
03:41I mean, what does this highlight about American military prowess?
03:45Or actually, does it highlight some Iranian strength here that this rescue mission was even necessary
03:50and was so fraught with risk?
03:53Well, there's certainly dimensions to it.
03:54I'm sure this will be made into a Hollywood film eventually.
03:57I mean, the fact that Iran was able to shoot down one of the, well, in fact, several of the
04:02American aircraft,
04:04but the F-15 Eagle, for the pilot and the weapon systems operator, you know,
04:09their day was spoiled when they were shot down.
04:11They then had to eject, probably landed injured on the ground, adrenaline pouring with their body,
04:17get rid of the helmet, the life jacket, the G-suit, shake hands, and then part,
04:21go on their separate ways to try and get as far away from the crash site as possible to evade
04:26capture.
04:26And then you've got this cat and mouse game.
04:28One of them was picked up relatively quickly.
04:30The other one had to go and survive for a while.
04:33And the combat search and rescue operation, this is not just a helicopter going and plucking them out.
04:38This is an incredibly impressive American capability.
04:42They go in there.
04:43They're not going to leave a body behind.
04:45They put a lot more people in harm's way, two Blackhawk helicopters, an AC-130 gunship as well.
04:52And eventually, despite the risk, because if one of those helicopters goes down, you make a bad situation a lot
04:58worse.
04:59But all credit to the Americans that they managed to get both of them out and all of the people
05:04involved in the rescue.
05:05But I suspect there's more behind the scenes here.
05:08We've got talk of the CIA being involved.
05:10There do seem to be the wreckage of a couple of C-130s left in Iran that have been blown
05:15up.
05:15They weren't crashed.
05:16It does look like they were blown up.
05:18I suspect we're going to hear more about this later.
05:20But the fact is, it does look to be a fantastically delivered operation.
05:25And I've been really interested to hear the full cover story in due course.
05:30Yeah, we will inevitably hear more about this for a long time to come.
05:33Thank you so much, Sean. Really grateful for your insights as ever.
05:36Sean Bell there.
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