00:00Let's get more analysis now with Karen von Hippel, a former U.S. State Department official and a former director of RUSI, which is a London-based defense research group.
00:09Welcome to CGTN, Karen. Thank you so much for joining us.
00:12You've worked in the U.S. government. Was this strategic surprise a success in the way that Washington is hoping for?
00:21You know, it's still so early, you don't want to call anything a success when something has just been launched.
00:26It could be if Iran decides not to attack in a significant way.
00:32They could have a symbolic attack, which would help them save face, but it's just really too early to say.
00:38So far, it looks like they've destroyed much of the Iranian nuclear capability, but not all of it.
00:46Iran's vowing, of course, to retaliate. How credible is that threat now?
00:50Well, I think they will have to do something, just like they did in January 2020, after Donald Trump ordered the assassination of Qasem Jilamani, the head of the Quds Force.
01:03They did, you know, they waited a little while, and then they attacked an American military base in Iraq that wasn't significant, and they basically telegraphed that they were going to attack.
01:12So they could do something like this. It's really hard to say.
01:15There's a growing concern that Iran could move to disrupt or even close the Strait of Hormuz, that really vital communications passageway.
01:27You know, how likely is that, and would there be quite serious global consequences?
01:32Yes, I mean, it's very interesting.
01:33I just saw a story on Reuters that the Iran Press TV reported that the Iranian parliament approved today a measure to close the Straits of Hormuz.
01:43About 20% of the world's oil and gas flow through that.
01:47And so Rubio, the Secretary of State, the U.S. Secretary of State, has asked the Chinese to intervene because, of course, I think half of China's oil imports move through the Straits of Hormuz.
01:58And China does obviously have some influence on the Iranian government, so we'll see if that happens.
02:04And Karen, just to repeat your major caveat, this is very early days.
02:09But stepping back, do you think that we are nearing the end of this current phase, at least, of the conflict?
02:16Or is this a new, more volatile, more open-ended, more dangerous phase to the conflict?
02:20Yeah, I mean, it's hard to say Iran has been weakened significantly.
02:25They've lost control of the skies.
02:27They've lost a lot of their air defense systems.
02:30They've lost senior military people.
02:32They've had a lot of their nuclear capability destroyed so that, you know, if they were being rational, they may think it's not smart for us to lash out.
02:40But countries don't always act rationally when they're feeling weak and pressed against the wall.
02:45So it's just, it could go one way or the other.
02:47I don't think Iran can do significant damage because I think it is very aware that the U.S. would strike that and hit quite hard if it did, you know, killed a lot of civilians or tried to use a dirty bomb or a terrorist attack or something like that.
03:02And finally, I think it's fairly safe to say that Donald Trump is ultimately a dealmaker.
03:07He really wants a deal at the end of the day.
03:10What could a de-escalation pathway look like, if any?
03:13And is diplomacy still the final option at this point?
03:18diplomacy is always the final option in any conflict.
03:22You want it to be given precedence over fighting, over military activity.
03:29And I think what it could look like is some sort of nuclear deal that would have very robust inspections regime.
03:35And in return, Iran would get some of its sanctions lifted.
03:38I think the Iranian regime is going to be worried about looking weak in front of the Iranian people.
03:44Now, U.S. is not calling for regime change.
03:46Israel has hinted at it.
03:48But it has to come from within if that is going to happen.
03:51Dr. Karen Von Hippel, really grateful for your time today.
03:55Karen Von Hippel, former U.S. State Department official and former head of RUCI.
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