00:00Let's talk to Laura Blumenfeld, the Middle East analyst and former United States State Department advisor for the Middle East.
00:07Laura, welcome. What's your reading of this? Where does this process go next?
00:12Well, it's easy to dismiss this as meetings about meetings, but I do see a flicker of hope for several
00:19reasons.
00:20First of all, you are seeing the Iranian foreign minister making these regional consultations, this round of he is negotiating,
00:27in fact,
00:27perhaps not directly, but it does show that, you know, the superpower of Iran is often considered to be that
00:34they're super stubborn.
00:35And they did say that they wouldn't negotiate while the United States maintained its blockade.
00:40But in a sense, they are negotiating indirectly.
00:43Also, it's good that they're not sitting down with the Americans at this point because there's sort of bad chemistry
00:48and bad blood between the Iranian negotiators and Trump's chief negotiators,
00:54Whitcoff and Kushner. They were bombed twice. Iran found themselves in the midst of negotiations.
00:59So until some trust and some momentum can be maintained, I think it's fine that these are indirect talks.
01:05What what are the key sticking points?
01:09Well, the gaps are still wide and that's the bad news.
01:12It's still, you know, the U.S. wants no enrichment and Iran wants no sanctions.
01:17If we are going to reach a negotiated solution, which I'm not sure we're there yet,
01:22but it's going to have to be one that buys time on the clock and based on no trust.
01:29So that would mean with inspections.
01:31It's not clear if we'll get there yet.
01:32And that's why the United States has sent a third aircraft carrier to the region.
01:37I don't know if we've seen that in over 20 years.
01:40That is certainly signaling a possibility for military escalation before we get back to the table where the United States
01:47might threaten
01:47or at least go forward with the idea of seizing the Strait of Hormuz by force.
01:52Given what you've just said, then, what leverage does Iran still have?
01:57Well, you know, if this were an arm wrestle, I would say that I see the muscles on Iran's arm
02:02trembling
02:03or to take Trump's favorite metaphor, they don't have the cars, he says.
02:09The question is, are they bluffing?
02:10Yes, Iran has weaponized the world economy by seizing the Strait of Hormuz.
02:16But, you know, Trump is throwing it right back at them, maintaining this blockade.
02:20The regime could withstand maybe three to six months of this kind of economic pressure.
02:25But, you know, inflation is going to go up to about 72 percent.
02:29The question is, are they that indifferent to the pain of their people?
02:33You say Iran can stomach this going on three to six months.
02:37Let me ask you then, how long you think the United States can endure this for?
02:43Right. Well, that is the question.
02:45And, look, Americans aren't used to economic pain, but Trump seems to be all in, in a way.
02:50This is, you know, this is one man making the decision.
02:53And I would not count him out to blink because he seems to be eyes wide open.
02:59He stared down a gunman for the fifth time last night.
03:03And this is not a, this isn't your typical U.S. president.
03:06I don't see him backing down.
03:07Laura, you're a seasoned watcher of the Middle East.
03:11After this is over, whenever it is over, what do you think the wider regional consequences of this are?
03:19Well, it's interesting because, as I say, the president won't back down.
03:22He still calls himself the president of peace.
03:25So you see him sort of shoving, for example, Israel and Lebanon together.
03:28He's determined to get at least one new peace deal out of all of this chaos.
03:33And so that's why I still have my eye sort of hopefully on the horizon for some new opportunities.
03:40Israel sent, you know, defensive weapons to the United Arab Emirates, which is a first throughout during this conflict.
03:47So perhaps you could strengthen or even broaden the Abraham Accords.
03:51You've got spoilers out there, though.
03:53Hamas spoiled an incipient peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia on October 7th.
03:59And Hezbollah, of course, the last thing they want to see is peace between Israel and Lebanon.
04:04So, you know, as they say in the region, we're going to have to say inshallah as we watch events
04:08unfold.
04:09Laura, thank you.
04:11Laura Blumenfeld, the Middle East analyst and former U.S. State Department advisor for the Middle East.
04:16Laura Blumenfeld, the Middle East.
Comments