00:00Yossi Merkelberg is an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.
00:05Joining us now, Yossi, how likely is it that J.D. Vance is going to be stood up by the
00:11Iranians in Islamabad?
00:14Good afternoon. I think it looks more and more likely.
00:19I think both sides play brinkmanship, but Tehran seems to take it to the brink even further.
00:25So right now, they claim they won't show up because there is no point in any talks, especially after the
00:36United States took over one of his cargo ships.
00:39So I think they try to stretch it to the last minute.
00:42But, you know, they need to calculate themselves.
00:46What's the consequences of not negotiating with the United States?
00:50Brinkmanship is something which is common in international negotiation.
00:54But at a certain point, it can go over the brink and then will be the resumption of violence.
01:01The ceasefire is due to expire on Wednesday.
01:04Effectively, though, do you think it's already over, given what we've seen in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend?
01:10I think we always knew this is a very fragile ceasefire.
01:15And as long as both sides are entrenched in their position, and we haven't seen right now, until now, any
01:23movement towards one another, any progress in the negotiation.
01:27In the last, you know, 12 days, they are almost in the same position, negotiation-wise, that they were at
01:36the beginning of the ceasefire.
01:38And in the meantime, the conditions on the ground seems to even worsen, because both sides dig their heels when
01:46it comes to Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
01:51The United States counter-blocking it, including ports.
01:55So, in this position, I think, yes, for all means and purposes, the ceasefire doesn't really ceasefire.
02:04But, you know, there is always the fear of escalation than the resumption of airstrike from the United States and
02:15missiles and drones from Iran.
02:17So, I mean, it's better than it used to be, but there is danger that the resumption is real.
02:23We are seeing reports that Donald Trump has been speaking to Pakistan's field marshal, Munir, who we understand he's very
02:30close to.
02:31Do you think that holds out some hope of a breakthrough?
02:35I think they're trying to create some momentum there, especially, I mean, just imagine the kind of the choreography of
02:44this.
02:44Yes, if the vice president of the United States is arriving to Islamabad and then the Iranian don't show up,
02:52this will be regarded as a front to the United States.
02:56It will really push the United States, Trump in particular, that he is seeing skins, probably to do something.
03:05So, yes, I think both sides testing each other.
03:09But I think the Iranian at this point think that the United States need a ceasefire more than them.
03:16They miscalculate.
03:17So I think, and by the very fact that Trump is trying to break the impasse, they might feel emboldened.
03:24This conflict is into its eighth week now.
03:27How much can the global economy actually cope with?
03:32I think we already, that the global economy barely cope.
03:37But there are two things.
03:38I think there is a first element of shock, also of speculation.
03:42But as time goes by and we saw it, whether the crisis with COVID or Ukraine, the global economy learns
03:50to cope, looks for an alternative.
03:53Maybe also move diplomatically to put the sides.
03:56So I think the global economy works on the assumption that it can, it can, the situation can be resumed
04:06or restored quite soon.
04:08But if it's not, it has to learn to cope very, very differently.
04:12But the strains are real on all economies.
04:16Those are relying on energy, pesticides that are going through the strait of hormones.
04:21I think that the economic crisis and recession is highly likely.
04:26Thank you so much for speaking to us, Yossi Merkelberg, Associate Fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Program
04:31at Chatham House.
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