00:00Rico Luhmann is a senior economist at ING Research.
00:04Welcome to Global Business Europe.
00:05Now, shipping is effectively at a standstill.
00:08Are we now in a worst-case scenario for global trade?
00:12Well, it's definitely hampering trade,
00:15but the region just reflects more or less 4% to 5% of global trade
00:21in terms of imports and exports.
00:23So it's very much an energy crisis.
00:26So for oil and gas, as we know, it's much more than that.
00:30So a little over or around a fifth of global supplies coming out of the Gulf.
00:36So it's indeed very much an energy crisis where we're in.
00:42Now, the U.S. is trying to guide ships through,
00:45while Iran says vessels must coordinate with its forces.
00:48Who actually controls Hormuz right now?
00:52That's a good question. No one knows really.
00:55And, well, many shipping companies are in limbo as well
00:59around who is controlling the strait.
01:02So there's a lot of uncertainty around this.
01:06And that's also why there's nothing really happening at the moment.
01:10Well, the companies are just afraid of putting their seafarers in danger, right?
01:16So we know that there's also mines in the region which need to be replaced or removed effectively.
01:27So these things lead to a very dangerous situation still.
01:31Now, you talk about seamen in danger there.
01:34You know, hundreds of ships, thousands of crews stranded.
01:36Is it becoming a humanitarian crisis as well as an expensive commercial one?
01:43Absolutely. It could be.
01:45Well, we know that, as you mentioned, around 20,000 seafarers are still trapped in the region with over 800
01:54vessels around still.
01:56So we know that food stocks are long near depleted.
02:03So something needs to happen to avoid a real crisis here.
02:08And, well, these people are also still waiting for over two months now.
02:13So this is going to be a real problem if nothing happens and nothing is moving.
02:20Thank you very much for coming on Global Business Year, Rico Lumen at ING Research.
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