00:00Now let's bring in Mervyn Kamrava, professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar.
00:07Professor, great to have you on the show.
00:08So just how destabilizing might these strikes and counter-strike be to the region?
00:15Extremely destabilizing.
00:17What we're seeing is coordinated Iranian retaliatory attacks on multiple American targets simultaneously
00:26in places like Bahrain, here in Qatar, in the United Arab Emirates, and elsewhere in the Persian Gulf region.
00:37And the Iranians had long warned that they would attack if they were attacked.
00:44And we're seeing that they're sticking to their words.
00:48Well, professor, I mean, this is our hypothetical question.
00:51But if the Iranian leadership has indeed been taken out, and what are the possible next step for a new
00:56kind of government?
00:59Well, as you said, that's a hypothetical question.
01:05By all accounts, Iran has moved the supreme leader out of his compound.
01:12The president is also somewhere apparently safe.
01:18But the Islamic Republic has long been quite adept at crisis management.
01:28It has really been lousy at management, at administering and managing the country.
01:35But at crisis management, it's been quite good.
01:38And as such, it has dealt with crises of this magnitude before.
01:44And I think one would assume that they have multiple contingency plans in place
01:53for removal of even the highest levels of its leadership.
01:58Professor, the Gulf Arab allies were pressing for a diplomatic solution, apparently.
02:04Why did the UN decide to side with Israel and move away from the regional and international preference for talks?
02:11That's a really good question.
02:13I think by virtue of his actions, President Trump had pushed himself into a corner from which he couldn't necessarily
02:22maneuver out
02:23by sending what he called the Armada, by amassing American military troops.
02:31And we have seen again and again that Donald Trump has been played by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
02:39Prime Minister Netanyahu has once again forced Donald Trump's hand.
02:45Just as the negotiations over Iran's nuclear file were beginning to bear fruit,
02:51the Israelis attacked Iran just as they had done back in June of 2025 and derailed the negotiations.
02:58And it appears as if, once again, Donald Trump has become a victim to Benjamin Netanyahu's larger political and diplomatic
03:09regional designs.
03:10And how might this end them?
03:13Well, that's another good question.
03:16We really don't know how this is going to end.
03:19The Americans don't seem to have an end game in mind.
03:22The Israelis don't have an end game in mind.
03:25And for the Iranian political system, this is an existential question.
03:31They're going to fight to the bitter end.
03:33Unless there is diplomacy by someone like Russia or China,
03:40I sincerely doubt we're going to see an end anytime soon.
03:44Trump has been facing trouble domestically with the various pressures.
03:49So how do you think that play into this?
03:52Hugely.
03:53Trump's public opinion ratings are at an all-time low.
03:59There are elections coming up, midterm elections for the U.S. Congress.
04:05And Republicans there are in trouble.
04:08And unless this is a quick and symbolic victory or decisive victory for the United States,
04:17the American president is going to find himself in serious political trouble.
04:23And that's what the Iranians are counting on.
04:25They're counting on being able to withstand and outlast the United States and Israel
04:33in terms of the political costs that are involved.
04:37Thank you very much for your insights.
04:39And that is Maren Kamrava, professor of Georgetown University in Qatar.
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