00:00Mark Hansian is a retired United States Marine Colonel and Senior Advisor at Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies.
00:08Mark, welcome back. Maybe you can help us here on what seems like mixed messaging from the United States.
00:13Is the Iran conflict winding down or winding up?
00:19I think both in the sense that the president has signaled, as we just heard,
00:25that he might essentially declare victory and call an end.
00:30On the other hand, he's putting in place the elements he would need if he wanted to continue the war,
00:36particularly opening the Straits.
00:38That's why we hear about additional Marines headed for the theater.
00:42What the administration has learned is that if it wants to have an option at some point in the future,
00:48it has to get the pieces for that option moving long before it wants to exercise the option.
00:55President Trump suggested that the United States would not guard the Strait of Hormuz
01:00and called on other countries to do so.
01:02How feasible is that?
01:06I think it's extremely unlikely that other countries would keep the Straits open by force.
01:13I think they would negotiate some agreement with Iran to open the Straits.
01:20It would be very difficult for other countries to conduct such a military operation,
01:26even if they wanted to do it, and politically it seems unlikely.
01:29Just a thought on this United States Treasury decision to ease oil sanctions on Iran.
01:36I wonder, would that inadvertently strengthen Iran's war effort,
01:41despite assurances from the United States?
01:46I think it couldn't help but support the Iranian war effort.
01:51This oil is likely going to China,
01:55and with the money that comes from that,
01:58it could reimburse China for some of the help China has provided.
02:03It might get some money to Russia,
02:04which is also helping Iran, in that sense,
02:09strengthen the support it's getting from those two countries.
02:13Realistically, from a military perspective,
02:16what are the likely scenarios for the weeks ahead?
02:22Well, I see three possible scenarios.
02:26One is the one we've heard about,
02:28which is President Trump declares victory,
02:31says he's accomplished his aims,
02:33and stops U.S. military operations.
02:37A second is that the Israelis succeed in further degrading Iranian leadership,
02:45that maybe they find the new Ayatollah or some of the ruling officials,
02:52and that at some point the Iranian government just fractures,
02:56that the new leaders don't have the credibility or the network
03:02to maintain a unified government.
03:06And with this cracking, then they either sue for peace
03:10or you get some sort of chaos in Iran.
03:13And the third possibility is that the United States uses force
03:18to open the Straits of Hormuz.
03:21That would be a major military operation in its own right.
03:25You would have Marines.
03:27You would have U.S. Army helicopters.
03:30You would have the Navy, of course, escorting, mine sweeping.
03:35You'd have Air Force aircraft overhead.
03:38It would be a major operation.
03:41Mark, good to see you.
03:42I'm sure we'll talk again in coming weeks.
03:44Mark Kansian, the retired United States Marine Colonel.
03:47Thank you, Michael.
Comments