- 2 days ago
ITL tackles the big-picture question surrounding Houston Texans and C. J. Stroud—is there still a path for this situation to be a true win-win, or has that window already closed no matter how the contract plays out? The guys break down timing, leverage, expectations, and whether both sides can realistically walk away satisfied long-term.
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00:00Does it pay to be C.J. Stroud, though, is the question.
00:02How much?
00:03How much, indeed, does it pay to be C.J. Stroud is a question that I think a lot of
00:08us have been contending with.
00:10It seems like it's not the biggest question on the team, but it's up there.
00:14It is one of the more important questions that it seems like the Texans will have to answer.
00:17It's the biggest question now.
00:18You think so?
00:20Sure. After the draft and after free agency, there's no bigger question than C.J. Stroud.
00:25Well, the actual payment of them.
00:26And how they handle it.
00:28Well, we'll get into it here.
00:29I think the play of C.J. Stroud probably way more important on getting the victory,
00:33but then figuring out what the contractual situation is, whether it is, you know, you will extend him or what
00:38have you.
00:39How will that go?
00:40DJ Biennemi of ESPN, rather, the Texans beat writer, does a great job there,
00:46wrote a piece about this big question as it pertains to the Houston Texans, to C.J. Stroud,
00:52and, of course, doing the good work.
00:54You kind of got insight from all different places on how executives around the league are viewing this.
01:00And so the question that you have, John Lopez, here is, do you think this could be a win-win?
01:05Do you think it could?
01:08Here's where...
01:09This should be a yes.
01:10When we're talking about a quarterback, it should always be a win-win when you're getting these done.
01:15In terms of, like, what they're offering, I really appreciated this piece from D.J.
01:18So shout-out to D.J., because there were some points made in there that made me ask this question.
01:23Could it be a win-win?
01:25The only way it's a win-win is the Texans, you know, clearly...
01:29Either the Texans pay him what, you know, one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL would make,
01:35and they're not going to do that, or...
01:37This year. You're talking about this all season.
01:39Yeah, this year.
01:40Or C.J. Stroud comes back, and he had a moment of clarity.
01:44You know, a new man.
01:45I'm in. What do you need me to do?
01:47I'll do everything you ask, and that's clearly, you know, a possibility,
01:51and he bets on himself and makes a bleep ton of money as a result after this season.
01:57But there's a lot of nuance there, because one of the things that was really enlightening in this piece to
02:03me
02:04is they were talking about one of the things that they could offer were pay him,
02:10give him a contract this year to make him in the range of the 8th to 12th highest paid quarterback
02:16in the NFL.
02:17Let me give you the quote here.
02:18This is an NFL executive, one of the ones that DJ talked to.
02:22Quote, offer him something like a top 8 to 12 quarterback money.
02:26I'd try and give him a three-year extension, $42 to $45 million per year now,
02:32or plan to franchise tag him like Dak Prescott did in 2020,
02:38saying that Stroud and his management team, he does believe, though, that Mulligata would reject that,
02:43and then he would be willing to increase the offer to strike a deal up a little bit.
02:48But seeing if you can get it done in that low 40s range for a three-year extension,
02:52which would mean that he'd be under contract for this year, next year, and then three more after.
02:56In a similar vein, obviously, as Will Anderson Jr., he'd be on that same timeline,
03:00but in a range where he's getting paid akin to somebody who is 8 to 12 quarterback.
03:06Yeah.
03:07It's not going to happen.
03:08It just will not happen.
03:10And so if that's what you're banking on, I don't know if that could be a win-win,
03:14because first of all, he's not going to sign it.
03:16And if you tag him, then you get into the similar situation if you ultimately tag him.
03:20It starts getting adversarial once you get to that place.
03:23Even if it's not openly adversarial, I think the negotiation portion of this is a little adversarial,
03:28and that does not seem to be in the M.O., at least traditionally, of Nick Asario,
03:32which is why this is so interesting to me, because I think we're already out of the place of this
03:37negotiation
03:38being in the typical negotiation M.O. of the Texans that we've seen,
03:43all the way up to Will Anderson Jr. very, very recently,
03:46which is get the job done relatively early and do it at a price where it doesn't matter what the
03:51little extra fritters.
03:52We'll set the market. It's cool.
03:53We were talking about that earlier.
03:55Other executives talk about, and it's well-known around the league,
03:57Nick Asario will set the market.
03:58He do not care, right?
03:59And he'll set it in a big way.
04:01They'll do some manipulating so that, in their minds, it's not setting the market that well.
04:05They view this extension for Will Anderson Jr. not as a three-year extension,
04:09but as a four-year extension for like 40-something because you include the fifth-year option.
04:13Except if you do that for everyone else, it's still a really big, it's a biggest extension.
04:18Because if you do that for all the other players that have gotten the big extensions,
04:21those numbers shift as well.
04:23They're not doing that.
04:24At least it does not seem like it.
04:25There's a slight possibility that out of nowhere this summer,
04:28the Texans and C.J. Stroud set a market-setting deal.
04:31I don't know how many people would be happy to hear about that.
04:32Well, in that piece that D.J. wrote, they said they really haven't had legitimate discussions about the contract.
04:39Then that kind of hit me like, okay, so clearly the Texans are sending the message like,
04:44we're not going to do it right now.
04:45And that leads to the whole win-win thing.
04:49If he accepts that, cool.
04:52And then he balls out.
04:53Which he wouldn't.
04:54He's banking on himself.
04:55He wouldn't accept that.
04:56If he accepts not getting a contract this year,
05:00what does evidence point to in terms of how C.J. Stroud is going to feel about this and act
05:06about this?
05:06Even if he says, I'm going to come back a new man, I'm all in, et cetera.
05:10You mentioned it.
05:11That just doesn't lend itself to we're getting the best C.J. Stroud
05:17or that he feels the best about things over there.
05:19Oh, you mean just like this offseason?
05:20In general.
05:21Okay, so you're asking how does the lack of a contract hit him going into this year?
05:28Yeah.
05:28Is what you're asking?
05:28I can't really call it.
05:30I think that it's fair to say that seemingly we might have some level of animosity is too strong,
05:37but some level of discomfort, especially shout out to T.J.
05:40That's a good one.
05:40Angst is a good word.
05:42Shout out to T.J.
05:43Huchmanzada giving us what seems to be a little bit of an insight into the feeling about how this is
05:48all going.
05:49Ultimately, you have to hope that he is coming from a place of one recognition of his failure in the
05:56playoffs.
05:56And I think we could say that flatly, right, his failure, not to say that the team itself did not
06:00fail in its ways as well
06:02and uses it as a motivation point.
06:04But there is a possibility.
06:07I don't know to what degree.
06:08There's a possibility that he takes it personal.
06:10Of course.
06:11Right?
06:11There is that possibility in there.
06:12I would hope that that's not the case, but there is that possibility.
06:16And we do have to go back to, you know, Nick Asario said, I think it was quoted in that
06:20piece,
06:21you know, he's our quarterback for 2026.
06:24Mm-hmm.
06:24You know, so...
06:25And as much as they can, they have supported the idea that he's here, he's their quarterback,
06:29but they've not gone out of their way to be like, hey, for forever, right?
06:33And maybe that's absurd for me.
06:36He said the same thing about Deshaun Watson when he first got here, remember?
06:38Yeah.
06:38He's our quarterback.
06:40Right.
06:40Maybe it's absurd for them to be like, hey, he's our guy, we're going to extend him, get off our
06:43back, right?
06:44Maybe that's an absurd thing to ask, but they haven't given us that.
06:46And so I can't operate under that presumption, especially because everybody else that you could say
06:51that they had that presumption of, they've signed them up already.
06:53Yeah.
06:54So on the one hand, like if it doesn't happen, you kind of have to wonder, you know, I don't
06:58want to, but you kind of have to based on just what we know and how he's played and seemed
07:04in terms of his acceptance of this offense and where he is.
07:07You have to kind of wonder if he's going to be, you know, all in, all in with that still
07:12hanging over his head.
07:14I think, I think he's going to be all in it for no other reason than less about this
07:18search and circumstance or again, he's not just playing for this team.
07:22It'd be one thing if it was just playing for this team and if it doesn't work out, I'll
07:25go somewhere else and get it.
07:26All those teams are looking at this season as well.
07:28So he has to ball out regardless.
07:29I think the buy-in is inherent for his personal success.
07:33And I don't know how much he values that over the team success, right?
07:36CJ Stroud, at least in what he has said and the way that it feels like he's operated,
07:41it's been more about what that team concept is.
07:44But even if he's just going to be selfish about it, you ball out for your own personal
07:47pocketbook in this moment, whether that's here or elsewhere.
07:50You do, but if it's not something that you feel comfortable doing, then it starts to
07:54compound.
07:54We saw it, you know, over the course of the year.
07:56Does it start to become something that is more of an issue and reflected on the field?
08:00But John, you get what I'm saying here, right?
08:02I get what you're saying.
08:02The idea of will he buy-in?
08:04Well, if he doesn't buy-in, like he hurts his prospect of doing anything.
08:06Do it for your next team, you know, or something.
08:09I get it.
08:10But if it doesn't fit and he gets uncomfortable with how it's helping his cause, even if it
08:16isn't on an individual basis, then that could be a problem.
08:19Now, let's go to the other side.
08:20Let's say that ultimately he does play.
08:22He plays well enough to get that extension.
08:24Texans clearly will have had a good season, you know, because any quarterback like CJ Stroud
08:28is going to help this team go a long, long way, if not all the way, this year.
08:33Then you pay him $60 million, $55 million, whatever that number is.
08:38Then you're in a good spot, you know, as a team, but you have other guys to pay as well
08:43and you're paying that guy 22% of the payroll, you know?
08:45And that's the name of the game, right?
08:48That's the problem that I think a lot of teams want.
08:50The only thing about it is you just want to make sure, as I take it to another executive
08:54who said, it hasn't been perfect.
08:56That defense has carried a lot.
08:57$25 million isn't crazy for the fifth-year option.
09:00So you leverage that, they've obviously done that, right?
09:02Get another year of info on durability and production.
09:05There was another executive after that who said they believe that CJ Stroud has to prove
09:09that he can carry a team.
09:10And I think that's where a lot of the fan base is.
09:13Quote, this is about whether you're convinced he's a long-term, top-tier quarterback worth
09:18damn near a quarter of the salary cap.
09:21The smart play is to pick up the fifth-year option, invest heavily in the offensive line,
09:25check, check, check, mind you.
09:27Stabilize the run game, check.
09:30So you're evaluating in a clean structure.
09:33And it feels like that is, in fact, is the third AFC executive, Nick Casario.
09:37Because that does seem like the way that they're playing this.
09:40And the thing you're trying to avoid is the Tua Tungvaloa.
09:43You're trying to avoid giving him the contract and then recognizing not only that he can't
09:47support it, but that then he is an actual drag on the team.
09:49I don't think that'd be the case.
09:51However, that is the thing that you need to be assured of.
09:53And I think with all this being said, that is clearly the game plan that is happening
09:57here.
09:57It's like assuring that he is not a drag on the team and you won't end up with this
10:02being like a saddle.
10:03The Dolphins had to tear this thing down and start all over.
10:06And with the team that I thought was built okay, it wasn't like the best built team.
10:09I thought it was built okay.
10:10But because of the way that that contract was situated, they had to tear the whole thing
10:13down.
10:14That would be an absolute failure with how good this defense is and everything.
10:18And they've signed things up.
10:19You couldn't even tear this thing down.
10:20So the mistake of paying C.J. Stroud would be too large.
10:24Or paying C.J. Stroud, if he ends up being that kind of drag, would be too much to stomach.
10:29And what happens if it ends up being something of a middle ground?
10:32Like, yeah, he shows some things over the course of the year.
10:35They have success.
10:36They don't go all the way.
10:37But they're still sort of like, oof, you know, I don't know.
10:41The middle ground is like, to me, the worst case scenario.
10:43You know, because then you, unless they already decided, you know, that would be enough.
10:48We're going to move on or whatever.
10:50But then if you tag him again, or you tag him, then all of a sudden it starts to really
10:54get complicated.
10:55Yeah, it gets complicated.
10:56At that point, you would hope that C.J. Stroud is like mentally tough enough to just be
11:00able to work, you know, recognize that while you're under contract, you work here, you
11:04do that.
11:04I think once you get to that place, if you're in the middle ground and you're like franchise
11:08tagging and those types of things, I think that the time is running out.
11:12The time would be running out, right?
11:13It feels like you make the decision this year and you get another quarterback or you like
11:20prepare yourself to get another quarterback if that's the way that you've seen it, right?
11:24If you're in this middle ground and you're like, I don't feel comfortable enough giving
11:27him the type of contract that would be fit a top five, six, seven quarterback, then you
11:35for the time being, you have the fifth year option.
11:37If you need to try and move on from him, you do that.
11:39But you start to look at what the future is.
11:41I think the middle ground, I feel like is not sufficient.
11:44And when I say middle ground, I think we probably should define this.
11:47Well, something like the regular season he had a year, but improved, you know, but is
11:51that enough to...
11:53Is that middle ground for you?
11:54Because I thought that he was pretty good within the context of what he was asked during
11:57the season.
11:57He was, but I would suspect maybe slightly improved.
12:00But if you don't really see enough to say, that's our guy that can carry us.
12:04And of course, how you end up in the postseason is going to be a big factor as well.
12:07Yeah.
12:08So that'd be the biggest factor.
12:09No, fair enough.
12:09And a fair point, right?
12:11This team, the way that they're building it, is there's a possibility, as obviously mentioned
12:16by this executive that we mentioned, right?
12:18The things that they have done, pick up the fifth year option, invest heavily in the offensive
12:22line, make sure the run game is stout.
12:23Those are things to give you a clear path to evaluate the quarterback.
12:28It's also a way to try and make yourself somewhat quarterback agnostic, right?
12:32I think that is, in part, some of the sell-offs as well.
12:36That's kind of what they want.
12:37Right?
12:37Yeah.
12:37Give him the foundation to see, hey, is C.J. Stroud going to be all of our dreams of quarterback
12:45and then we'll go ahead and put a ring on it, right?
12:47And if not, I think it gives you an opportunity to move on, and this is clearly future conversation,
12:54if that is the place that you get to.
12:56It gives you an opportunity to move on and not have to fall on your face as you do it.
13:01Maybe make the transition possibly a little bit more viable to continue to contend.
13:05Obviously, the optimal circumstances, he balls out, give him the contract, and you'll figure
13:10out the negotiation.
13:10Everybody happy.
13:12The win-win possibility of what you're talking about here is a little bit narrower than I
13:16consider.
13:17Yeah.
13:17No, I think it is.
13:18And then, you know, if it is sort of a middle ground or you feel like you don't have, you
13:23know, it's not a fit, whatever it may be, then I think everybody would kind of be good
13:28with it in terms of moving on because that's two years, three years of, you know, not necessarily
13:34seeing what you want to see, including C.J. Stroud.
13:36You know, that's kind of been the sticking point.
13:40He feels like he can play better in a different system, but they're not changing any systems.
13:45So we might be good.
13:46Not this year, but a fair point comes in from 713.
13:48What if C.J. plays well, but the problem is Kaylee's offense?
13:50I think that's an easy fix.
13:51Yeah.
13:51Right?
13:52Like, the coach is always the easy thing to change.
13:54That's another thing.
13:55The coach is always the easy thing to change here, at least the coordinator or, like, the
13:59position coach.
14:00Mm-hmm.
14:01Right?
14:01I think you're right.
14:02If you get to a place where you're sold on the quarterback.
14:04But would they change it, though?
14:05That's the thing I'm worried about.
14:07Mm-hmm.
14:07If they're going to look at C.J. Stroud as the issue.
14:10Yeah.
14:11And it's changed the coach because it just didn't work.
14:13Right?
14:14If they get to a point where C.J. Stroud has played pretty well, it's evident that the offensive
14:20system is a problem.
14:21Um, yes.
14:22Yeah.
14:22That is the easier thing to change.
14:24It was pretty well.
14:24If he played, like, last year?
14:26Mm-hmm.
14:26Well, um, because if he played, like, last year, well, I don't see them making a chance
14:33unless they just can't run the football, unless the offensive line is bad.
14:36I think it would point more to C.J. Stroud.
14:38Yeah.
14:38Moving on.
14:39Yeah, if he played like he did last year.
14:41I don't think they'd make a move on Kaylee.
14:43And that's kind of surprising to me because in a vacuum, right, taking out of the particular
14:48circumstances of this place, in a vacuum, if you go, hey, the quarterback is fine, but
14:53it just hasn't come along, you typically side with the quarterback and the talent and you
14:57figure out a way to get this out, right?
14:59That's kind of the name of coach.
15:00Normally.
15:01And so, I'm not sold that that's the way that this goes, but I also don't think that you
15:05guys are flatly wrong.
15:06I'm not sold on that.
15:08It seems stupid.
15:09Like, of course, you know, change the coach.
15:12I don't know.
15:12I think they're just married to the system and they like it and they want the right fit.
15:15And don't let C.J. get hurt and Davis Mills come in and look manageable.
15:19Oh, boy.
15:19Oh, boy.
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