- 44 minutes ago
ITL breaks down whether the Texans’ offensive improvements are truly sustainable or just a flash.
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00:00There is a lot of possibility for good vibes and good feelings.
00:04I was playing around with the Athletics playoff probability,
00:09and I think you're currently sitting at 53% chance of making the playoffs.
00:14It jumps. It jumps a good degree if you get this win versus the Colts.
00:18And honestly, it jumped a good degree last week.
00:19Yes, it did. Yes, it did.
00:21In fact, like I said, it was the big delta of probability of making the playoffs.
00:25If you lost that game versus the Bills versus if you won it,
00:27obviously the Texans won it.
00:29So they're in a good spot.
00:30They can really give themselves an opportunity to have football games here,
00:34to have a football game here if they can start by getting this win.
00:38D'Amico Ryans, obviously he talked to the Assembly Media yesterday,
00:41and one of the things he also will do on a Monday often
00:43is talk to Mark Vandermeer and John Harris in the Coaches Show.
00:46And one of the things that happened in the Coaches Show, Fig,
00:48I'm looking for cut nine here, was D'Amico just kind of looking back a little bit.
00:53I think the mini-buy served as an opportunity to look back, look forward at the same time.
00:56But looking back, one of the big things that we are looking at to see if the Texans can make the playoffs
01:00is we know the defense is there.
01:02What can the offense be?
01:03What kind of improvements have they made and what do they need to make?
01:06And this was D'Amico Ryans when he was asked what improvements he has seen from the offensively.
01:12For the most part, we're not having the negative plays.
01:15Like, that's the one thing you have to mitigate the negative plays, right?
01:20We've done that.
01:21Like, we've been gaining positive yards on first down.
01:24We've been able to win on some third downs.
01:26So, we're getting there.
01:27The red zone has gotten better.
01:29We've been able to get in the end zone the past couple weeks.
01:31So, we're taking those steps as an offense to put us in position to win games, right?
01:36And they gave the team enough points against Buffalo to go win.
01:40And that's what it's going to take.
01:42Whatever we need.
01:43I'm always trying to get at least 21.
01:45Yeah.
01:45That gives us a chance, right?
01:47But they've done a good job, I say, overall in the red zone just running the more, you know,
01:51the scheme plays with the run, getting Woody on the outside more with some of our perimeter runs.
01:56Done a good job pulling our tackles.
01:58Just a lot of variety in the run game.
02:00I like that about our offense.
02:02And I think it just keeps defenses on their toes.
02:04Keeps them out of balance, out of sync.
02:06They don't know really what's coming.
02:07So, the more and more we continue to thrive on what we're doing well,
02:11and the more we lean into what we're doing well,
02:13I mean, with our play-action pass game, we've got to run the ball well to open it up.
02:18So, Nico and Higgins, they've done a great job as well.
02:21And Higgins, he doesn't get talked about much.
02:23But I think as a rookie, like, he's come on in our offense.
02:26He's been the guy who's really lighting it up, making some big plays,
02:30explosive plays on early downs.
02:31And in the red zone, he's been the guy who's getting in for us.
02:34So, we've got to lean on him a little bit more as well.
02:37All right.
02:38A few things there that were interesting to me.
02:39A lot of things.
02:40How many of these things?
02:41Because he listed a lot of things.
02:42I've taken note of some of them.
02:44How many of these things do you feel like you've seen,
02:46and how many of these things feel sustainable to you?
02:48Okay.
02:48That's two different questions.
02:50That's right.
02:50Two different questions.
02:51That's right, John Lopez.
02:52My bad.
02:53Was that loud?
02:55That's one of the things that I think stood to me.
02:58And maybe it's because we are Texans fans, and we are battered and bruised, and we have the old Texans battered syndrome over the years of how long can this last?
03:08When's the other shoe going to drop?
03:10I think you're kind of fooling yourself if you don't think there has been improvement on offense.
03:13I know that sounds almost like a bold statement, as harsh as we were and as harsh as it was to look at for, what, ten weeks, eight weeks, ten, you know, somewhere in there.
03:25But if you look at these last couple of games, they have shown improvement.
03:29He kind of itemized a few things there.
03:32Woody Marks, that's your running back.
03:34We saw how he finished, how he converted on third and fourth down in this last Buffalo game,
03:37and how that wouldn't have happened previously, maybe with different running backs, but maybe certainly with a different offensive line.
03:43There's that.
03:44He mentioned Jaden Higgins, said people aren't talking about it enough.
03:47Hell, we are.
03:48I have.
03:48We are.
03:49Yeah.
03:49And that's a big one right there.
03:51And, you know, getting the ball out quickly, that has been key.
03:56I mean, would you agree, like, this offense, if you just had to say yes or no, has it improved?
04:02Absolutely, yes.
04:03It has improved, and you know me.
04:05I got numbers behind it because as soon as I heard it, I was like, I want to see how true that ultimately is
04:10because it feels spiritually true, but sometimes the feelings can be deceptive.
04:15And I went and I looked at, especially when he was talking about being better on first down
04:20and getting positive yards, not getting negative yards.
04:23And you can look at that in various different ways.
04:26I separated this out weeks one through nine and then weeks ten through 12,
04:30which you might be able to see a clear line of demarcation there,
04:35ten through 12 being Jags, Titans, and, of course, this Bills game,
04:39where early on you were 23rd in EPA, 11th in those last three weeks.
04:46That's a huge jump.
04:46That's the biggest jump you're going to see.
04:48Success rate is really the interesting thing for me when it comes to those two
04:52because success rate, if you're having a successful play on first down, pick it up four yards.
04:55On second down, getting yourself into short situations, so on and so forth,
05:00picking up 60% of what you're looking for to try and get your first down.
05:04And then, obviously, third down is if you're converting that first down there.
05:06That's a successful play.
05:08You were 30th in the lead in success rate early on in the season.
05:12You were 19th in the last few on first down.
05:14That's particularly on first down.
05:15That's not lighting the world on fire, but that's 11 spots.
05:18That's a lot better.
05:19Even third downs, right, you go from EPA of 26th to 13th.
05:22A success rate, you go from 29th to 10th, right?
05:27If you could find a way to be average in the league on first down, on third down,
05:32you are giving yourself an opportunity to continue drives.
05:34That's what we've seen with some of these long drives.
05:36And then red zone is then when you have to be better.
05:39That's the one that feels a little bit where he's like it's gotten better in the red zone,
05:41and, yeah, because it was absolutely putrid.
05:43I still think that there's room to grow,
05:45but I feel like all of these things that we're seeing are fairly sustainable.
05:50The thing that I do wonder about is he's talking about, yeah, we've got to run the game, run the ball.
05:55The play action has been good, and you need to run in order to establish it.
06:00That's where I start going, eh.
06:02Because, again, you were able to run the ball really well against the Buffalo Bills.
06:06That's a very unique circumstance.
06:07Well, really well was like 90-something yards, 78, 90 yards, something like that.
06:13I forget the exact number, but that is really well.
06:14And that kind of leads to my other sort of takeaway from what he was talking about there.
06:19You do have to grade this offense on a curve because of the defense.
06:23Because the defense, you know, not only gives you points sometimes, oftentimes,
06:28but they shorten the field, and the offense doesn't have to score as much.
06:33By the way, thanks for listening, D'Amico.
06:34He said 21.
06:35You and I have both been saying just get to 24.
06:37Just get to 24.
06:38And he just said right there he's more confident.
06:41If we can get to 21 points, all we're asking for is 21 points.
06:44They feel pretty good about winning the game.
06:45So you kind of grade it on a curve.
06:47It actually looks better when you consider what their defense is.
06:50But the thing about it is it looks better, but it's just barely enough right now.
06:53Yeah.
06:54And that's why I'm like the run game is the one thing within the things we talked about, right?
06:58Nico is going to be Nico.
07:00We know that.
07:01We know that they're going to get him the ball.
07:02Higgins, I talked about this.
07:04We've talked about this this week.
07:06I really like what I saw from Higgins in that Thursday night game.
07:08And I like what I saw from the offense.
07:10I know that there's still room for development and growth.
07:14You've got to get your foot down and tap that thing in, young fella.
07:16You've got to understand that when you're free, just get to open space to catch the football
07:19as opposed to being rigidly attached to your route pre-stamp.
07:25If that thing opens up, just get the ball and go score a touchdown.
07:28I feel like those are things that he can grow on.
07:31But they are trusting him with touches.
07:34They're trusting him with targets.
07:35And he ends up being the de facto place where they go to the football when Nico Collins is covered up.
07:40That's going to be something that's going to happen a good amount because teams know Nico Collins is a gosh darn menace.
07:45Yeah.
07:45Right?
07:45I think that those things are cool.
07:47But all that's fine and good.
07:48But you need to be able to, like, or they feel like they need to be able to run the football.
07:53And that scares me a little bit because they haven't run the football.
07:55Even in this instance of what we're talking about, they haven't run the football particularly well outside of that game
07:59where you get against the Bills and notoriously bad run defense.
08:03I do like that D'Amico acknowledged that, hey, when we got to Woody, we're getting him to the outside.
08:08Yeah.
08:08We're pulling tackles.
08:09I think that that serves to understand that our strength isn't in the interior.
08:13Our strength is getting these big boys, especially someone like Ariante,
08:17that's big and can move, getting them on the perimeter and letting somebody like Woody Marks work in space.
08:21I like that they're acknowledging that.
08:23I'm still a little disconcerted by the fact that they want to lean so heavily on the run, though.
08:27Well, but one thing, you know, that needs to be mentioned, of course, is, you know, their offense has improved.
08:33Obviously, all due respect, because he played terrific, all things considered.
08:37But they did it all with Davis Mills, you know.
08:39CJ Stroud is coming back.
08:41CJ Stroud, although he's not like a, you know, a big-time runner, is a bigger threat for defenses
08:48and does offer, you know, some options or some concerns for defenses.
08:54So, CJ Stroud coming back, showing a few signs.
08:56You do need to run the ball better, as you mentioned.
08:59But I think there's, again, if you say yes or no, has this offense gotten better?
09:04Yeah, you kind of, you know, couch it a little bit, but it has gotten better.
09:08It has gotten better.
09:10Does that then mean we need to salute Nick Haley?
09:12Like, how far are you taking this here?
09:15I mean, how can you not?
09:16If we're being fair, this is not an offense that is going to, we know this, we knew this in the preseason.
09:22You know, they're not going to have five or six shot plays.
09:25They're going to stay true to what they've been saying all along.
09:29You know, run the ball, safe passes, get rid of it quickly.
09:32They're going to do that all year.
09:33Now, here's where the other CJ Stroud factor comes in.
09:37CJ Stroud has had a lot more success seeing those plays, calling them at the line of scrimmage,
09:42famously the second and 27, you know, that he converted to Nico or whatever it was.
09:47The left side of the field, yes, sir.
09:48You know, and taking that shot.
09:50So, I think, yeah, there's hope there.
09:53I still think that there's, at times, and of course, I'm bringing the negative because you hit so much of the positive,
09:58not just because I'm a negative Nancy, which I might be.
10:00That might be something that you can accuse me of fairly.
10:03There's still some nonsensical route combinations that happen at times in this offense,
10:07and periodically there's still some poor protection schemes within it,
10:10but it's fewer and further between than it used to be.
10:12And at times, there's still, like, you know, weirdly coach technique.
10:16I was watching a quarterback school on YouTube, and they were breaking down Davis Mills' game versus the Bills,
10:23and one of the things that they were looking at, there's an instance where it's like they're three-step drop, no hitch,
10:28like getting the ball out quickly on a corner route that Higgins is going to need a little more development, right?
10:33And so, I feel like there's still instances like that that are little,
10:36but I think you can spin that to a positive where hopefully that's still growing and developing within this,
10:41where they're noticing those things and trying to get better at it, and I think that that is encouraging.
10:46But, yeah, there's still room to grow, and that either means that, you know,
10:50Nick Caley is not, you know, wringing out all the potential,
10:52or they have an opportunity in going to be one of the most important,
10:55in fact, the single most important stretch of football here,
10:59that they have an opportunity to get more out of this offense.
11:02Just one more quick thing.
11:04This offense began to turn not just when personnel changed,
11:09but also from the day that D'Amico Ryan said,
11:12we've got to change some things.
11:14Remember that?
11:15Yeah.
11:16So, it's Nick Caley, but we've got to give credit to a lot of those guys in that offensive room,
11:19whether it's Szaplinski or Gerard Johnson or whomever, D'Amico, you know, emphasizing things,
11:25because from that moment on, they have changed things, personnel and otherwise.
11:29And so, maybe, you know, you give Nick Caley the bulk of the credit,
11:32but this seems to be a collective effort offensively.
11:36Yeah, and I'm very encouraged by the fact that they're able to do it against the Bills,
11:40but this Colts team is going to give you quite a challenge defensively.
11:43That front looks real nasty.
11:44I'm interested to see if they can match that.
11:46But salute to this offense in the way that they've improved.
11:49I understand that we often are going to ask the question on if they're going to deliver,
11:53but I think we should give them a little credit for, at least in the last few weeks,
11:55delivering to some degree, even with an acknowledgment that it came late against the Jags.
12:00It came just, just barely, barely enough against the Tennessee Titans.
12:04Yeah.
12:04The Bills game does do a little bit of deodorizing on some of it.
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