Is this matchup really as simple for the Texans as it looks against the Bills?

KILT-AM / SportsRadio 610

A closer look at whether the Texans can finally get the run game going, slow down Buffalo’s top-tier rushing attack, and keep Josh Allen’s legs from taking over.

Transcript

00:00The game plan, like the outcome, I think is in the air to some degree.

00:04You can look at various different people calling this,

00:09and you will get different answers, but a lot of them are going one way.

00:15However, you can see certain ways that this game ultimately finishes out,

00:19but the way that the Texans play this can't be.

00:21It's not a complicated look.

00:23The formula for both teams, to be honest, is simple.

00:26We know it.

00:27They know it.

00:28Everyone knows it.

00:28If Texans run the ball well against, I believe they're the second-worst rush defense in the NFL.

00:33At least via DVOA.

00:35Yeah.

00:36Then they're probably going to win.

00:38On the other hand, if the Bills rush the ball pretty well,

00:43including Josh Allen against the Texans, they probably win.

00:49The formula is simple.

00:50It's a very simple thing.

00:52Maybe oversimplified, but I think it's the meat and potatoes of it.

00:56This is going to be, in the year of our Lord, 2025, a battle of running games.

01:01Who is going to be more efficient?

01:03I imagine that time of possession will be a very interesting stat to keep track of,

01:08particularly for this Texans team, because if you can keep that defense fresh,

01:12only God knows the things that they could possibly do to harass one Josh Allen.

01:15But yeah, that is going to be the crux of it.

01:19The question I will ask you immediately, how confident are you in the Texans' ability to do this?

01:23Because there's so much of us looking at the defense and saying, they're bad at this.

01:27There's not really been a lot of us introspectively looking at this Texans running game.

01:31How good are they?

01:32Well, actually, there has been, because we've been yelling at the coaching staff,

01:35stop thinking you're good at running the football.

01:37But they're not.

01:39They haven't had it.

01:40Never give up.

01:41Exactly.

01:42Quitting is underrated.

01:43If there's one thing I want you to learn from in the loop today,

01:46and I'm sure there's probably better things you can learn.

01:48However, quitting is underrated.

01:50And sometimes, a lot of times, I've looked at this running game and, yep,

01:55you're negative running the football.

01:56There hasn't been nearly as many just, like, lost yardage.

01:59You're not picking up a lot of yards a lot of times.

02:02So, the running game is not actually good.

02:05Do you feel like they can actually get it done, though?

02:07Well, that's where, you know, we get into the nuance here.

02:10Because, like I said, the formula is easy.

02:12Run the ball against this bad Bills defense.

02:15It's going to open up the play action.

02:16It's going to open up the passing game.

02:17You're going to obviously have some success running the ball.

02:21Don't, and you're in trouble.

02:22The same thing as I just said on the other side.

02:24If they can just gash you, all of a sudden, they become, you know, very, very fierce.

02:28But here's the nuance.

02:30What if the Texans start out, let's say, the first quarter and not run the ball well?

02:36How long do they stay with it?

02:37How long do they stay with it?

02:39Because at that point, kind of to your point, this is like resistible force against movable object.

02:45Yes, stoppable force.

02:48This is stoppable force against movable object.

02:51Movable object.

02:51So, like if they all of a sudden, in that situation, cannot run the ball, don't you have to kind of bail a little bit?

02:59Or will they?

03:00Do they have it in them?

03:01I think we have to start with the concept of this is one of the issues with oversimplifying at times.

03:06Like I think it could get you very quickly to the heart of an issue.

03:09But then you do have to get down to brass tacks because, you know, oversimplifying leaves a lot of things outside of the scope.

03:16And the fact of the matter is, you can't build the entire plan out of run the ball, right?

03:20Like I think that there still needs to be.

03:21And yet.

03:21There still needs.

03:22I think that if you do it incredibly well, you can tax that team.

03:25You can force them into some places.

03:26But you will still need to throw the football, right?

03:28There's going to need to be a level of balance.

03:30It's not going to be 100% runs.

03:32And this is all done.

03:35You need to make sure to lean a little bit further, right?

03:37You just need to kind of calibrate as opposed to just abandon, per se.

03:41The thing that is interesting to me is the Bills are actually solid.

03:46In fact, we were talking to Zach Jones, WGR 550 yesterday, in our kind of weekly Behind Enemy Lines conversation.

03:55And one of the things that he was talking about, and obviously you can go and look at the statistics to support it,

04:00is this Bills, when it comes to pass defense.

04:04Oh, the secondary is good.

04:05They're really good, actually.

04:06I would say they're pretty solid, but that feels like that's not quite fair.

04:10I don't want to say they're great because you're comparing it to, at least on the field,

04:14it'll be in direct juxtaposition with this Texans defense that is pretty damn good

04:18and has been pretty locked down all the way around.

04:22But, yeah, that portion of it, I don't think you can just lean into,

04:25we're just going to throw the football.

04:27If you become one-dimensional, I think that's been some of the issue,

04:29or a lot of the issue with this Texans team offensively anyways against other teams

04:33is that you become somewhat one-dimensional and they can clamp this up to some degree.

04:37If you become too one-dimensional in this game, I do wonder that you play into the Bills' hands.

04:43100%.

04:44That ties into the run game, too.

04:46If you can do it, like I said, the formula is there.

04:51It's easy.

04:52We all know it.

04:53But if you don't abandon it, maybe it's a good thing in a sense,

04:57still playing off the play action even if it's just a two-yard game and all that stuff,

05:01because of the secondary, and it works the other way, too, to me,

05:03because how scary is this Bills' passing game if you can hold their rushing game?

05:11No Kincaid.

05:14Hell, Keon Gratt.

05:15He's not playing again, which, hey.

05:18And they're already down two other receivers.

05:19That's right.

05:20Well, yeah, two other receivers, three pass catchers.

05:23Two receivers in the tight end.

05:25Yeah, Kincaid is not playing in this game.

05:27No Curtis Samuel, no McCall Hardman.

05:30I don't think McCall Hardman was going to make a big deal in this.

05:32However, when we're talking about the grand scheme of things,

05:34them not having their full complement of wide receivers in a wide receiving core

05:39that already wasn't something to write home about

05:42is going to make it so that they are going to rely more on Josh Allen.

05:45And I think that it is when he gets into the moments that he believes

05:48that he needs to be Superman that he is susceptible to activating

05:53what I like to call his bozo gene,

05:54which if you've, I mean, the history of the Texans playing the Buffalo Bills

05:59under Josh Allen's quarterback ship,

06:02you have seen the bozo gene pop out from time to time, right?

06:05You've seen that happen in some instances.

06:07So, yeah, you're right.

06:08Like, if you could manage to stop James Cook,

06:10it just feels like this is a different,

06:11this is different than the other side of the football

06:13because with the bill you're talking about, you know,

06:16movable object, stoppable force,

06:19you have a good run team over there in the Bills.

06:23And it's not just Josh Allen.

06:25Right.

06:25The Texans' run defense is sufficient.

06:29I think it's probably a fair way to put it.

06:31Like, they're not a run over defense by any means.

06:35However, that's a really good running team.

06:38So, I do wonder with the consideration of,

06:40I can easily see D'Amico Ryan's going,

06:42we're stopping that.

06:43We're putting a stop to that.

06:44Yes, yes.

06:44With that consideration in front of mind,

06:46as well as we need to make sure our pass lane,

06:48our rush lanes are sound,

06:51that we're gap sound and not allowing

06:53so many things front of mind

06:56that things get kind of fall out.

06:58I kind of liken it to me playing golf,

07:00and I'll say me in particular

07:01because I already know I'm not great at it.

07:03But when I get up,

07:04and I'm sure that a lot of people

07:05under the sound of my voice

07:06that have played golf are in the same place.

07:08I know I'm not good enough in my swing,

07:10and so I'm trying to make it consistent.

07:11I also don't practice enough,

07:13so I get into a place where I'm like,

07:14all right, so you want to make sure

07:15that your weight is balanced,

07:16and you want to make sure that you make sure

07:17that, you know,

07:18keep your hand back and, you know,

07:20turn over and all these,

07:21and when there's too many things in your head,

07:23that's where it could fall out.

07:24I do wonder if this defense,

07:26or I, not wonder,

07:27because I think that they're capable of doing it,

07:28but there's a little voice in the back of my head

07:31that goes,

07:31what happens if they have too many focuses

07:34front of mind as they're trying to do this,

07:36which violates what D'Amico Ryan

07:38typically wants in the defense,

07:39which is playing fast,

07:40playing free,

07:41versus a good offense.

07:43No, I agree,

07:44but look,

07:45let me ask you this.

07:46This is the ultimate question for me,

07:47and I posed that question earlier.

07:50How long do you stay with it?

07:52How long will they stay with it?

07:54I think those are two different questions.

07:55Yeah, that is fair.

07:56I think this is where the run delusion,

07:59as we have come to call it here on this show,

08:02is going to be an interesting one

08:03because they've already been at a place

08:05where it's not been all that effective,

08:06and they've stayed with it to some degree.

08:09So, yeah,

08:10that will be a very interesting thing.

08:11You've got to have your pulse

08:12or your finger on the pulse of this game

08:14if you are the play callers,

08:16the head coaches in this game,

08:18and I will ask you,

08:20what is the confidence level

08:21in Nick Caley,

08:22D'Amico Ryan's

08:23to have their finger on that?

08:24Not good.

08:25This is why I was thinking,

08:28this is so simple,

08:29and yet it's complicated

08:30because I think they'll just stay with it,

08:32and if they fall behind.

08:357-1 Caley's been better

08:36about switching things around,

08:37which I do think is true, right?

08:38We have seen progression

08:40in his ability to play call

08:42and figure out these game plans.

08:45This is going to be a real test, though.

08:46This is going to be a real test,

08:46and that's going to be interesting to watch.

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