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What are the top concerns facing Southeast Asia, and how do the region’s policymakers and thought leaders see these challenges? In this episode, Nailah Huda speaks with Joanne Lin from the ISEAS-Yusok Ishak Institute to unpack ‘The State of Southeast Asia 2026 Survey Report’.
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00:06This is Awani Global with me, Nailah Huda.
00:09Southeast Asia is navigating an increasingly complex world,
00:13caught between major power rivalry, rising economic uncertainty and growing climate pressures.
00:20The latest State of Southeast Asia 2026 survey report offers a snapshot of how the region's
00:26policy makers and key thought leaders see these challenges and what it means for ASEAN's future.
00:32Published by the ASEAN Studies Centre at the IC's Yusofi Shah Institute,
00:36the survey found that a majority of Southeast Asians, 60% identify climate change
00:42and intensifying extreme weather events as the region's most pressing challenge.
00:46This is followed by worries about intensifying economic tensions between major powers.
00:51Joining me to unpack some of these key findings and what it means for the future of Southeast Asia.
00:57Joining me now is Joanne Lin, Senior Fellow and Coordinator, ASEAN Studies Centre,
01:02IC's Yusofi Shah Institute and currently a visiting scholar at the MIT Centre for International Studies.
01:08Thank you so much, Joanne, for joining me.
01:11Thank you, Nailah, for having me.
01:13Some interesting findings here from the report.
01:17As we discussed before we started, this was collected, the data was collected sometime between
01:23January or the first few weeks of the year.
01:26And this is, of course, before the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran.
01:30But before we get to that, maybe we can just start off with the sort of bigger picture kind of
01:34question.
01:35How do you describe the overall mood of Southeast Asia in 2026?
01:40What do you think stood out the most compared to last year's findings?
01:44Yes, so I would describe the overall mood as definitely more uneasy but still pragmatic.
01:51So the region is clearly feeling the strain of a more uncertain external environment.
01:57Not just, you know, geopolitical rivalry but also economic tensions, climate risk and domestic challenges
02:05all happening at the same time.
02:07So I think what stood out this year is that the strategic environment now, as you have
02:11mentioned earlier, is becoming more complex and difficult to manage.
02:17And, you know, at the same time, Southeast Asia is not reacting by choosing sides or becoming
02:22inward-looking.
02:23I think the instinct is to stay open to diversify partnerships and preserve room for maneuver.
02:30So basically, the region is becoming more cautious, more alert to risk and more aware that the
02:36external environment is becoming less predictable than before.
02:41Talking about some of these risks and concerns, of course, climate change emerged once again as
02:47the region's top concern, consistent from last year, but increasing slightly.
02:52What do you think this tells us about how the region is prioritizing long-term and short-term
02:57priorities?
02:59Yeah, I think climate change is now seen as a more direct and immediate threat to livelihoods,
03:06food security, infrastructure and economic stability.
03:10So across the region, you are already seeing the impact in terms of the numbers of natural
03:15disaster that we are experiencing, whether it is floods, you know, droughts, rising sea levels
03:22or disruptions to agriculture and supply chain.
03:25So I would say that the concern is very rare and increasingly urgent.
03:30And what is interesting is that this concern also sits alongside geopolitical risks and governments
03:36are therefore not just only focusing on external geo-strategic issues, but also thinking about
03:43things like resilience, sustainability and how to protect their economies and population over
03:50the longer term period.
03:53Just to expand a little bit more on climate change and concerns over intensifying extreme
03:58weather events.
03:59I mean, this is, of course, timely as Kuala Lumpur is once again facing flash floods at the
04:03moment.
04:04Do you think that there's also increased awareness due to the already felt effects or impact on livelihoods
04:13and economic status?
04:16Yes, definitely.
04:17There is an increased awareness.
04:19I mean, we are actually seeing the region people feeling the impact on their own.
04:26And of course, now the impact doesn't stand alone.
04:29You know, the impact comes with other geopolitical risks as well.
04:32So if you see higher fuel prices, higher fertilizer prices, so you see the higher cost that has
04:40to go into agriculture.
04:41So if with that higher cost going into agriculture and with, you know, the climate, you know, with,
04:46let's say, a drought coming or floods, and that is double whammy.
04:51And definitely, you know, you will see climate change being even more important in such a fragile
04:57strategic environment that we are facing today.
04:59Now, coming in second is, of course, concerns about economic tensions between major powers.
05:06This has also arisen compared to last year's survey.
05:09How do you think this is shaping policy thinking among ASEAN countries?
05:13Yeah, so the rise in concern about economic tension reflects really how exposed Southeast
05:19Asia is to global trade and supply chains.
05:23So when major powers impose tariffs or restrict technology flow or, you know,
05:29fragment markets.
05:31So it has a direct impact on the region's growth on investment flows and even the industrial
05:37strategy.
05:38So policymakers are becoming much more really sensitive to this risk.
05:44And what we are seeing in response is also a stronger emphasis on diversification and resilience.
05:51And countries are trying to widen their economic partnerships, strengthen, you know,
05:57intra-ASEAN trade and to avoid over-dependence on any one market or system.
06:03And there's also actually right now a growing focus on supply chain resilience, on digital economy,
06:09cooperation and regional integration.
06:12And that's essentially trying to build baffles against a more fragmented global economy.
06:19I mean, it's interesting, as I mentioned, that the data for this survey was collected prior
06:25to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran.
06:28Perhaps this is too soon to say, but with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with the bickering
06:34between the U.S. and Iran, do you think that this could potentially contribute to growing
06:39concerns in the next year's report?
06:42Yeah.
06:43So that's right, because the survey was conducted really from the beginning of
06:48Jan to the mid of Feb.
06:49And that's really before the war in Iran.
06:52So the survey actually doesn't capture the direct impact of the war itself.
06:56But I mean, it does show that Southeast Asians, Singaporeans and Malaysians included are very
07:03deeply concerned.
07:04But really, if the survey was done a little bit later, I'm sure that the Iran war might
07:10actually further weaken the region's confidence in the U.S. in actually doing the right things
07:15to contribute to global peace, security or prosperity.
07:18So we had a question about trust, and I'm sure that question about trust in the U.S. really
07:25might be affected.
07:27Yeah.
07:28Before we go to that, another concern points out domestic political instability also climbing
07:36up the list of worries or concerns among Southeast Asian respondents.
07:40How do you think this is significant in affecting ASEAN cohesion going forward?
07:45We already know ASEAN unity is already sort of an issue, but with domestic political instability,
07:52you know, we've seen with how that has trickled into conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia,
07:58for instance.
07:59How do you think this might affect ASEAN this year?
08:02Yeah.
08:03So domestic political instability matters because I think, as you mentioned, it can directly
08:09weaken ASEAN's cohesion and responsiveness.
08:12So ASEAN works by consensus.
08:14So when member states are dealing with internal divisions, leadership transitions, or even governance
08:22challenges, it becomes harder for the organization to move quickly or take stronger collective positions.
08:29So in that sense, domestic instability is not just a national issue, but it can actually have
08:35regional consequences.
08:38And you can already see that in some of the survey findings on the country level.
08:44Because we see that the domestic instability in Myanmar, for example, it has become the most pressing challenge
08:52to the respondents from Myanmar.
08:54And it will also continue to weigh heavily on ASEAN's credibility and unity.
09:00And of course, Thailand is another useful example where you see domestic political instability being one of their top
09:09concerns as well.
09:10So this tells us that ASEAN's difficulties are not only about managing external rivalry,
09:17but they are also about whether enough internal political stability exists across the member states
09:25for ASEAN to function cohesively and also effectively.
09:30Going into geopolitical concerns, more than half of the survey respondents identify the U.S. leadership under
09:38President Donald Trump as their top geopolitical concern, as you mentioned.
09:42And this is a marked difference from the previous year, whereas there was concern somehow about U.S. leadership,
09:50but this specifically names leadership under President Donald Trump.
09:53How would you describe Southeast Asia's level of confidence in Washington?
09:58So Southeast Asia confidence in the U.S. today is really more cautious and more worried than before.
10:05So the U.S. is seen as strategically relevant, as we all know, especially in security terms.
10:11But confidence has clearly weakened in many other areas.
10:15So this year respondents across the region are actually more worried about U.S. economic influence and also more uneasy
10:23about its political and strategic influence.
10:26So at the same time, the U.S. is also seen as being less credible than before in championing global
10:32free trade and, you know, in upholding the rules-based order and international law.
10:37So I would say that the region feels less assured about the current American leadership and will support the kind
10:45of, they are less assured whether the U.S. will continue to support the kind of predictable, open and rules
10:53-based environment that the region used to depend on.
10:56So we are not saying that the U.S. is no longer important because it definitely still matters in many
11:02ways, but it is no longer as committed to Southeast Asia in the way it once did.
11:09Talking about the U.S., of course, at the same time, a slim majority of ASEAN respondents selected China over
11:15the U.S. if the region were forced to align itself with one of the two major powers.
11:21But at the same time, we are also seeing China remaining a source of concern over its growing economic and
11:27political influence with, of course, concerns in the South China Sea.
11:31How do you explain this duality in perception? Are we, you know, choosing between the lesser evil, if I may?
11:39Yes, so I would be cautious about reading it as a decisive strategic shift towards China.
11:45I think the margin between U.S. and China is very narrow.
11:50So it's so what is more important point is that the region sentiment remains very finely balanced and still quite
11:58unsettled.
11:59So what the results suggest is less that Southeast Asia is becoming comfortable with China and but more that it
12:06is becoming less assured by the U.S.
12:09And in that sense, you know, this is not really a vote of confidence in Beijing, but that Washington has
12:15really become harder for the region to really lean on.
12:19But, you know, at the same time, I think the region's view of China is still very pragmatic.
12:25Southeast Asians recognize that China is economically central.
12:29It's geographically closed and really too important to ignore.
12:34But that does not mean that they are fully assured by China.
12:38The survey also shows that respondents remain very concerned about how Chinese power is being exercised,
12:45especially on sovereignty issues, maritime disputes, coercion, and even domestic interference.
12:52So this dual reality is really seen as indispensable, but not necessarily reassuring.
13:01And that is also why the region is trying to engage China where necessary, but still preserve some autonomy and
13:09some room for maneuver.
13:12Talking about China, would you say that there's a marked difference or would you say there's a united front in
13:20opinions or perspectives towards China?
13:23Because, you know, it's interesting to see sort of country to country difference.
13:27Do you think that ASEAN is rather united on whether it comes to the U.S. or with China?
13:33Do you think that there's any significant difference between any of the country's perceptions or confidence and trust towards these
13:41two major powers?
13:43Yeah.
13:45Yeah.
13:45So, of course, different countries would choose differently, you know, really based on what is their national priority, what's their
13:51foreign policy choices.
13:54And really, it also depends on how dependent their economy is on China versus how dependent that their security is
14:03on the U.S.
14:04So there are many factors that are involved in making such a decision.
14:11But the thing is, well, of course, there is a trend like, for example, Philippines, who is actually closer to
14:17the U.S., you wouldn't see that they are leaning too much closer to China, even with whatever the U
14:24.S. leadership is doing.
14:26So I would say that, yes, although, you know, we see a generous swing to China, but if you look
14:33at the real country level data, you will still see that there are nuances and differences between every country.
14:40If Southeast Asia feels increasingly pressured to choose sides, as we're seeing power rivalry growing more and more intense, how
14:49realistic do you think is ASEAN's strategy of neutrality or hedging today in this state of the world?
14:56Yeah, I think it is still realistic, but I think it is clearly becoming harder work for the region than
15:04before.
15:05So the survey suggests that Southeast Asia has not really abandoned its preference for balance, but the instinct to really
15:14avoid binary choices remains very strong.
15:17And many respondents do favor strengthening ASEAN's resilience and unity rather than siding openly with any one major power.
15:25So neutrality is really not dead, but it's really harder to manage than in the past.
15:31And in practical terms, I think hedging today does not mean sitting on the fence.
15:37I think it means staying engaged with both major powers while also diversifying partnerships and reducing over-dependence on either
15:46U.S. or China.
15:47And that is why middle powers like, you know, Japan, the EU, South Korea or even India matters, because they
15:54give Southeast Asia more room to maneuver.
15:59Apart from looking externally, we also want to look inward, looking specifically at ASEAN.
16:05A significant number of respondents in the survey stated they still see ASEAN as rather slow and ineffective.
16:12We know this is not a new criticism, but in your view, what do you think it would take for
16:16ASEAN to change this perception?
16:18Do you think that there's a significant difference from how ASEAN has been viewed and perceived over the past few
16:25years in this survey?
16:27Yeah, I think the first thing is that ASEAN has to show.
16:31The first thing that ASEAN has to show is that it can move from convening to delivery.
16:36And of course, as you say, these kind of critiques are not new.
16:40And people have long said that ASEAN is consensus bound and very slow.
16:46But really what the survey suggests is that this concern is becoming more serious because the environment is becoming more
16:54demanding, right?
16:55So respondents seems to be asking whether ASEAN can still respond credibly to very fast moving political, economic and security
17:04challenges,
17:04or whether it risks looking increasingly more like a procedure at a time when the region needs some practical, you
17:12know, outcomes.
17:13So changing, you know, that perception will definitely require stronger implementation capacity, greater internal cohesion and a willingness to use
17:24the tools that ASEAN already has more effectively.
17:28So ASEAN values actually lies in keeping the region together, in creating space, you know, for that sort of dialogue
17:35and preventing differences from escalating.
17:38But that means that ASEAN will now, of course, be judged less on rhetoric and more on whether, you know,
17:45it can respond with credibility and a sense of purpose.
17:52Expanding on this, do you think there were specific events that would trigger this sort of criticism or perhaps resulting
18:00in it increasing slightly in this year's report?
18:03I mean, we were seeing a lot of challenges last year from the US tariffs externally and internally as well.
18:09We were seeing the conflict between Cambodia and Thailand.
18:12Do you think this had to do with ASEAN's response to more external, internal issues?
18:17Or do you think it had to do with how ASEAN is responding to just how more or how much
18:23faster global issues are developing now?
18:26The challenge is that if rivalry, you know, really, I mean, some external rivalry sharpens too much, right?
18:33Especially, let's say, over a crisis in Taiwan or let's say the South China Sea.
18:39I think really the space for ambiguity or that space for maneuvering could really narrow very quickly.
18:47I mean, so while we are talking about hedging earlier, it's still possible, but that strategic space to sustain it
18:54will be going under strain.
18:55And of course, countries in that sort of situation might choose according to their own national interests rather than, you
19:03know, the regional interests.
19:05And that is where you might see a situation where it's harder to have unity within ASEAN itself.
19:12We've reflected a lot on past events, but if we were to look ahead and if you had to identify
19:18some of the major risks for Southeast Asia in the next, perhaps, three to five years, what would it be?
19:25So I would say that the biggest risk is probably a sharper narrowing of strategic space.
19:32So by that I mean a situation where major power rivalry intensifies to the point that Southeast Asian countries find
19:39it much harder to preserve that sort of flexibility or diversity of partnerships or avoid, you know, being put into
19:51positions that they would rather not take.
19:53So the region has actually long relied on a very workable balance of U.S. strategic presence on the one
20:02hand, China's economic weight on the other, and of course, ASEAN's convening role.
20:08And I think what the survey suggests is that this balance is really becoming more fragile.
20:15And the risk can actually play out in different ways.
20:17So it could come through, as I mentioned, like a Taiwan contingency, a serious South China Sea crisis, or sharper
20:25economic decoupling, or even a loss of the rules-based order.
20:30But that common thread is really the same.
20:34Once that the external environment becomes too unstable, then Southeast Asia's room to hedge and manage differences will definitely shrink.
20:42And for a region that has long relied on that sort of flexibility rather than alignment, I think this would
20:48definitely pose a very serious challenge.
20:52And on the flip side, where do you think you might see the biggest opportunity for the region right now?
20:57We know Southeast Asia is quite big on AI investments, on data centers, but, you know, we can't ignore that
21:03the top concern for the region is to do with climate change and extreme weather events.
21:08So this might become a bit tricky for the region.
21:10Yeah, I think the biggest opportunity is for Southeast Asia to turn this moment of uncertainty into a push for
21:18greater resilience and strategic agency.
21:21So the survey shows that respondents still see value in ASEAN, and they still prefer strengthening regional resilience over choosing
21:29sides.
21:30So that means that there is a political space for ASEAN countries to actually deepen cooperation in areas that matters
21:36directly to their own security and prosperity.
21:39And strengthening intra-regional trade and investment as well as supply chain resilience is important so that the region is
21:48less exposed to external shops.
21:50And of course, you know, enhancing areas like the digital economy, cooperation and climate adaptation, as you mentioned, and even
21:58non-traditional security issues will also help to promote, you know, this sort of regional resilience.
22:05And more broadly, I think the region has an opportunity to widen its strategic options.
22:13So Southeast Asia is really not looking to replace one major power with another, depending on what actions that they
22:19do.
22:20But it really wants a broader network of relationships that can give it more room to maneuver.
22:27So that is why middle, you know, powers and issue-based sort of partnerships that we are seeing more and
22:33more matters.
22:34And ASEAN cohesion will also be important for the region to stick together in the midst of this sort of
22:41uncertainty.
22:41Just to add a little bit, talking about the need to expand ASEAN's network with the world, with middle powers
22:49beyond major power rivalries and not getting stuck in that sort of rivalry.
22:53You know, with what we've seen with the U.S. tariffs last year and now with the U.S.-Israel war
22:58on Iran,
22:59do you think that this creates that much-needed push for ASEAN to create these relations with middle powers and
23:07to, you know, move beyond and to diversify beyond major powers?
23:11Yes, definitely. I think middle powers and other major powers apart from the U.S. and China matters because I
23:20think they give Southeast Asia more room to maneuver.
23:23So if you look at the survey, I think the EU and Japan remains the top preferred third-party partners
23:30to hedge against the U.S.-China rivalry,
23:33while Japan also remains the most trusted major power in the region.
23:37And the survey also suggests that the region is not looking to replace the U.S. or China with another
23:44single power,
23:45but is clearly interested in broadening its strategic options.
23:50So in that sense, I think these actors can serve as an alternative anchor to really help it to stabilize
23:57through trade, investment, technology,
24:01or development cooperation and even support for international rules, right, which is very important these days.
24:07So I believe that Southeast Asians generally value partners that are seen as non-coercive and, you know, really supportive
24:15of a rules-based order.
24:17But however, I think that said, we need to know that the role of middle power can only be complementary.
24:23I don't think that they can substitute either U.S. or China because many middle powers do not have that
24:30same hard power, you know,
24:32as these two superpowers.
24:34But of course, they can still be important as very reliable economic, diplomatic or normative partners.
24:41Thank you so much for sharing your thoughts and for joining us, Joanne.
24:45Yes, thank you so much, Nailah, for having me.
24:48That was Joanne Lin, Senior Fellow and Coordinator at the ASEAN Study Centre, ICS Usof Asia Institute,
24:53and Visiting Scholar at the MIT Centre for International Studies.
24:57Joining us for sharing some of the key findings from the State of Southeast Asia 2026 survey report,
25:04detailing some of the thoughts and perceptions from the region's policy makers and thought leaders
25:10and how they see geopolitical challenges and what they might mean for ASEAN's future.
25:15That is all on Awani Global this week.
25:16We'll see you next time.
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