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As Kuala Lumpur prepares to host world leaders for the ASEAN Summit, all eyes are on how the regional bloc will navigate the confluence of competing powers. Can ASEAN assert its own agenda at this Summit, or is there a risk of it being defined by the interests of others? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Professor Phar Kim Beng, Professor of ASEAN Studies & Director of the Institute of International and ASEAN Studies at IIUM.
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00:00Hello and good evening. I'm Melissa Idris. Welcome to Consider This. This is the show
00:25where we want you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day.
00:29As Kuala Lumpur prepares to host world leaders for the ASEAN Summit, all eyes are on how the regional bloc
00:37will navigate the confluence of competing powers. Can ASEAN assert its own agenda at the summit
00:45or is there a risk of it being defined by the interests of others? Joining me on the show to
00:52discuss this further is Professor Fa Kim Beng who is Professor of ASEAN Studies at IIUM. He's also
00:59the Director of the Institute of International and ASEAN Studies there. Prof, welcome to the show.
01:05Welcome back to the show. Thank you so much for joining me today. So we know that there will be
01:10many world leaders who will be converging in Kuala Lumpur during the ASEAN Summit. US President Donald
01:16Trump, of course, is probably one of the most prominent ones there. I'm just wondering what
01:22your sense is in terms of why all these extra regional leaders are coming to ASEAN for this
01:29ASEAN Summit now. What do you think it is that they want from their attendance at the summit?
01:36Thank you, Melissa. That's actually a very excellent question. Now, when we have summits such as this one,
01:42it's important to understand that it actually comes in three. So on October 26th, in the afternoon,
01:50you have rather in the morning, you have the ASEAN Summit that extends all the way into the
01:55afternoon. And then in the evening, you have the US-ASEAN Summit. A lot of people misunderstood this
02:01as strictly an invitation to the United States. It's actually a carryover from visits that have not
02:08been fulfilled by the previous administration. That having been said, it's also a very good
02:13optic for Malaysia, ASEAN, and the rest of the region to provide this appearance that we are
02:21inviting President Donald Trump to this region at a time when the Sino-China tension is extremely acute
02:29and difficult. And then followed by that, you have the East Asian Summit. Now, East Asian is basically
02:37comprised of 11 dialogue partners, which are Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, India,
02:46Canada, United States, now also Russia. But on this particular occasion, we probably will not see
02:53President Putin coming to Kuala Lumpur. All right. So just walk me through how you are
03:00reading Donald Trump's presence here. What do you think his motivations are for attending?
03:08What do you think he wants to get out of his presence at the ASEAN Summit, at the US Summit,
03:13as you mentioned, US-ASEAN Summit? What is most interesting is that on previous occasion,
03:18most American presidents who have been invited to East Asian Summit or ASEAN Summit, they usually
03:26give a notice of several days prior to committing themselves to coming to the capital. But on this
03:32particular occasion, as temperamental as President Donald Trump might be, he actually gave the
03:37commitment of coming to Kuala Lumpur three months ago, based on the briefing that was provided by his
03:43Secretary of State, National Security Advisor Marco Rubio, when the letter
03:48attended the ASEAN Regional Forum, which is basically a forum that is comprised of 37 member
03:55states. And he was very impressed from the reliable sources that I heard. He was extremely impressed
04:01with ASEAN Regional Forum. And he impressed upon President Donald Trump that this is one of
04:05the diplomatic events that he should come to. And subsequent to President Donald Trump's attendance
04:12sessions in US-ASEAN Summit, which will focus on the Cambodian and Thai peace or ceasefire, which
04:20will result in what I know will be referred to as the Kuala Lumpur Accord. And the template
04:29will be on the basis of what the two sides have agreed on both in July and August to cease and
04:37cease from any armed exchanges. And Donald Trump is here in order to moderate while Malaysia is
04:44facilitating the logistics and the occasion for President Donald Trump to claim his aid, peacemaking
04:54endeavour. That's right. So can I ask you, apart from that, what else will you be watching out for with this summit?
05:02Because I know that there'll be lots of moving parts, lots of things going to be discussed, many agendas
05:07on the table. But for you, Professor, what will you be specifically watching out for in terms of
05:15Malaysia as Chair of ASEAN and I guess the success of the culmination of our year-long leadership at the
05:24helm of ASEAN? Well, it's easy to assume that this is a culmination of year-long effort because on 28th of
05:32October, that is practically the last day of the East Asian Summit. But then between October 28th and also
05:40the late January next year, there is a lacuna or gap where the Philippines have to galvanise and
05:48encourage all leaders from the region, if not abroad, to give the key points on how the Philippines
05:56should be the next group chair of ASEAN and related summit. So in other words, while events will end on
06:04October 28th, official events, and we have had more than 330 meetings this year, Prime Minister Anwar will
06:11still have a certain role and say on how things can be carried forward into the following year. In addition to
06:18which Malaysia is also the coordinator of ASEAN and China relationship, another critical component of
06:26our foreign policy and for the entire region too. So Prime Minister Anwar will continue to have a major and
06:33important role to play as we go further. Yeah, that's an interesting point because ASEAN's annual rotation
06:40is seen to limit the time for any one country to implement any substantial changes, any real impact
06:51on the ground. Do you think that's true in terms of a limitation and how should Malaysia think about
06:57leadership beyond the chair of being chair of ASEAN? I mean, when you think about giving up the chair,
07:04you can still have a position of leadership within the regional bloc. How do you see that? Is there a way for
07:09Malaysia to continue a leadership role within the regional bloc? Melissa, there is definitely room
07:15and a role for Malaysia to continue to be the intellectual thought leader, precisely because
07:21when our neighbours Cambodia and Thailand were locked in conflict, normally the mechanism is to
07:27unleash the foreign and defence minister to try to come in and try to pacify and modify both sides.
07:34But on that particular occasion, with the help of United States Prime Minister, Dr. Sri Anwar Ibrahim,
07:41exercise the privilege and the prerogative of the chair to encourage Thailand and Cambodia to have a
07:49ceasefire which will then culminate on the 26th of October when Trump will oversee the peace accord.
08:01Right. And talk to me about what you expect from the Philippines, because they're taking chair
08:08next. And if you think about their relationship with the US, are you thinking that that might reshape
08:16ASEAN's or shape ASEAN's agenda next year?
08:20I think the Philippines, to some extent, will accentuate the issue of South China Sea in light of the
08:28difficulties that they have been having with China. But that having been said, in any territorial or
08:35maritime conflict, there is the need to understand that all the bilateral countries have to settle the
08:44issues on their own. So you have the lights of Malaysia that have that has adopted a more
08:51Christian diplomatic approach without acquiescence. In other words, we don't necessarily concede on every
09:00single point that has been raised by China, but we adopt a very diplomatic and quiet and low-key approach.
09:07And the same can be said about Brunei, about Vietnam to some extent, and potentially even Indonesia and
09:16Taiwan, which has always been at the background. In fact, if anyone were to look at the 9, 10 or 11 point map,
09:25it was actually inherited from Taiwan way back in 1947.
09:29So when all the glow around the summit wears off after the 28th, are there practical outcomes
09:42to watch for, Professor? I'm just wondering, will there be more beyond the round of beautiful
09:51communiques that will come out post-summit? What are you watching out for, may I ask?
09:57Well, one of the things that ASEAN does not get enough credit is the 20-year project on ASEAN Power
10:08Grid. It has been there, and there are electricity being supplied to Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand,
10:16Laos, and we are trying to convert it into a common electricity market. And that's one of the major
10:22milestones and achievement of ASEAN, now known as ASEAN Power Grid. So ASEAN is both a victim of its success
10:32and also failure to communicate effectively. The reason why I'm saying that is because they are
10:38actually tangible achievements, some of which can be openly said, some of which are already being
10:44managed by the market forces, as a result of which there are occasions when ASEANs have done quite
10:52well, but cannot claim full credit. But nonetheless, the branding of ASEAN still remains.
10:58So lots happening under the surface, you're saying? That's right. And the key to understanding ASEAN,
11:06if I may, is to take everything with a grain of salt. That having been said, also accept the fact that
11:13a lot of things happening behind the scenes, under the ground. But then when it comes to practical measure of
11:20urging the lights of Cambodia and Thailand to cease and cease from further armed action, we have been
11:27quite successful based on the legacy that we have built. Had it not for the fact that ASEAN member states
11:35are not known for going to war, it would have been very, very difficult to convince Bangkok or Phnom Penh to
11:43terminate the conflict in less than four days. Obviously, that's because of American pressure, because
11:55President Donald Trump said it very openly, if the two do not stop going to conflict, then they risk
12:02being tariffed even further. That was one of the reasons why they decided to stop. And Malaysia facilitated
12:11the process subsequently.
12:16So, Donald Trump's presence at the ASEAN summit is a big deal that he's here in this part of the world,
12:23but it also risks hijacking the attention of the agenda of ASEAN. Do you think that that's a potential
12:31risk that it will become all about Donald Trump and very much the narrative of ASEAN, all the things that
12:38Malaysia has helped ASEAN do this year will get pushed to the sidelines? Is that a risk you see
12:45in his presence at the summit?
12:46There is always that risk if we adopt the belief that someone iconoclastic, in other words, someone
12:54who is known to throw his weight around, come into any event in ASEAN, and all of a sudden the ASEAN
13:01norm is disrupted. The quest for consensus, for quiet agreement. But then if we look at the history of
13:08Southeast Asia or ASEAN objectively, we have had leaders such as President Roberto Durtete too in
13:17Philippines. So when he was up to his antiques, nothing really disruptive happened in Philippines while he was
13:27playing one of the leading role as a group chair as well. So there is always likelihood of something
13:33going wrong. But then the key metric adopted by foreign legations and embassy is that will there
13:40be any serious security breaches or incidents? But if it's merely this diplomatic outburst, I don't think
13:49that is enough to say that ASEAN has failed in his delivery and his job.
13:53Well, Professor, thank you so much for sharing some of your analysis, your insights with us ahead of
14:00the ASEAN Summit. It will really help you trying to put everything into perspective for us. Thank you
14:04for your time. Professor Fa Kim Beng there from IIUM. We're going to take a quick break here and consider
14:10this. We'll be back with more. Stay tuned.
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