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JP and Czabe discuss the likelihood of Washington's third day draft picks making the final roster come Week 1.
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00:00Washington landed four players on Saturday.
00:03Saturday draft picks, rounds 4, 5, 6, 7.
00:07None of them were in the fourth round.
00:08Their first pick was Joshua Josephs in the fifth round.
00:12Then they took the fat man, Katron Allen, in the sixth round.
00:16Another sixth rounder, Matt Goulbin, Michigan State center.
00:20And then a quarterback in the seventh round.
00:22I think it's worth pointing out, a Saturday draft pick is hardly a roster lock.
00:27But NFL rosters, what used to be an incredibly punitive bottom line for players
00:37at the bottom of rosters, players 45 through 53, has changed a lot.
00:43Some COVID era changes weren't good.
00:45And the way they've built out NFL rosters now, one, with the expanded practice squad,
00:50they've changed practice squad rules that veteran players can be on the practice squad.
00:54That used to not be, used to not be eligible if you had roughly three years of NFL experience
00:59to be on a practice squad.
01:00Used to not be eligible, now you can.
01:0316 practice squad, and you've got that international pathway program.
01:07Plus, by being able to elevate off the practice squad on Saturday night,
01:10those dudes are basically on the team.
01:12Yeah.
01:12So it's a very different structure.
01:14And you can look at it, and teams do this.
01:16I've had multiple coaches tell me they look at it as a 70-man roster now.
01:21So that's really conducive to late-round draft picks making teams.
01:26They don't cut draft picks anymore.
01:28Not often.
01:30It's rare.
01:31It's more rare than ever, I think, for two reasons.
01:33One is all that you mentioned, the fact they've got places to stash these guys.
01:39And the second thing is, in today's internet culture, no team or no GM wants to admit,
01:45yeah, no, we took a chance on this guy.
01:47He sucks.
01:48Right.
01:48We're getting rid of him.
01:49100%.
01:50And so combine all that, if you have a veteran on your roster that is a fringe roster player,
02:00you have significantly higher chances of cutting that guy and getting him back to your practice squad.
02:04And what B always says, he's like, sometimes you cut a guy, but you tell him,
02:08don't answer your phone until I call you back.
02:10And then, oh, I didn't know Kansas City was calling, and I'm back in Washington.
02:15Like, this happens all over the league, right?
02:18I would answer my phone just to see.
02:22Sure.
02:23Like, if somebody else really wants me, I'd be like, oh, really?
02:26You know?
02:26But okay.
02:27Let's start with Joshua Josephs.
02:29Fifth round, D-end, out of Tennessee.
02:32One thing I like, we all know about the long arms.
02:35Oh, God, I love the arms.
02:37You know, got to have the long arms.
02:39He's also turned that into production in kind of weird, quirky categories,
02:43but consistently that I think are a result of the long arms.
02:47Six passes defense and six forced fumbles over the last two years in Knoxville.
02:52Like, that to me is kind of attributable to 84-inch wingspan.
02:57Yeah.
02:57You know, and I looked at this this morning.
03:01This is pretty wild.
03:02They signed a bunch of edge rushers this year.
03:05They've signed Dorrance Armstrong.
03:09Next year, going into 27, the only dude with guaranteed money
03:14that is not on a rookie deal at the edge position is Odafa Owe.
03:19I was going to say.
03:21Dorrance has a void year on his contract.
03:24Even Luvu has a void year on his contract.
03:26The rest of those dudes are all on one-year deals.
03:30Yeah, they're going to be in the market.
03:32Well, they're going to be in the market, but I think it's good for Joseph.
03:35No, I think, and hopefully he pans out.
03:38Right.
03:38Because that would really help them out.
03:40As far as the next two, I mean, I know that Catron Allen is going to be this cult guy.
03:48Totally.
03:49But the scouts' opinions of him as a pro running back are not high.
03:55They consider him as a one-cut runner at best, not explosive, not necessarily a plus in the pass game.
04:03I'd love for it to all be wrong, but you just throw him on top of a pile of otherwise
04:08meh running backs.
04:10I don't see that as being an impact.
04:13His path.
04:14Yeah.
04:14For me.
04:15What's his path?
04:16What's his role on the team?
04:18Let me.
04:19I want to ask you this.
04:20So we'll finish.
04:21To round out Josephs.
04:22I have his likelihood to make the final 53 at 70%.
04:27This is the JP formula?
04:29Yeah.
04:29Do you have a formula?
04:30Yeah.
04:30You got an app for that?
04:31No.
04:31Can I download it?
04:32It's all a beer.
04:32Is it subscribed?
04:33You don't want to download this.
04:3570?
04:36This would cause a lot of trouble.
04:3770% chance.
04:39Okay.
04:39Does that sound right?
04:40Too high?
04:40Too low?
04:41I love that you have it.
04:43I'm like thinking, damn, JP's really thought about this.
04:46So Catron, the path to a roster spot, I consider Bill and Rashad White on the team.
04:54Now, all this entire conversation is barring injury.
04:56But I consider those two on the team.
04:58Not McNichols.
04:59I consider J-Mac probably number three.
05:03But J-Mac and Rashad White have a pretty similar skill set.
05:07Okay.
05:07And McNichols is a veteran.
05:09Like, they have released him and signed him back before.
05:12That's true.
05:13That's a dude that you could probably get to your practice squad, elevate when you need to.
05:17Like, the odds of if we get to late August and they have to release McNichols and him not being
05:24on the Washington practice squad,
05:25I'd say, are minimal.
05:27Like, I think McNichols is with the organization one way or another next year.
05:31Okay.
05:32I think what Fat Man has to do, prove he can be a short yardage guy.
05:37Chris Rodriguez is now in Jacksonville.
05:40I don't like that, by the way.
05:41I liked Rodriguez.
05:43Great guy.
05:44Great guy.
05:45And realized he had to be better and worked to make himself better.
05:49Increased his speed.
05:50Got a little leaner.
05:52Chris Rodriguez is gone, though.
05:54I know.
05:54That's what happened.
05:55And Bill, Rashad White, not a thumper.
05:59Like, third and two, I need somebody to get me three.
06:02Those aren't the guys you lean on.
06:04Batman has to prove he can be that guy.
06:06Okay.
06:07That's his path.
06:08And Jerome Ford, do you know what Jerome Ford did last year in Cleveland?
06:15No.
06:18No.
06:19Never under 250 yards rushing.
06:23Under.
06:24Played 13 games.
06:25Under.
06:2673 yards rushing last year.
06:2813 games, huh?
06:31That ain't much usage.
06:32In 23, he had over 200 carries, 800 yards.
06:35Ran for four yards a pop.
06:3824.
06:39Now, Cleveland drafted other guys, signed other guys.
06:42They went and got Quinshawn.
06:44The Jerome Ford thing, to me, I think, currently, I'd have Fat Man ahead of him on a depth chart.
06:52And I think the J-Mac thing will be really interesting.
06:56A lot of this also comes down to roster machinations.
06:59Like, how are you going to build your final 53?
07:02Do you have to carry four running backs?
07:03I'm not so sure.
07:05I got the Fat Man.
07:06You want to know his likelihood?
07:09Yes.
07:09Boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop.
07:11You want to guess?
07:14Uh, 61%.
07:1560?
07:16See?
07:17You got a little calculator in there.
07:18I'm tuned in.
07:19Boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop.
07:20The J.P. Finley roster index.
07:22Yeah.
07:2461%.
07:24By the way, I'm on ESPN's depth chart for the Commanders.
07:28Sure.
07:28And it is updated with their draft picks.
07:30But what I find odd is that they have the red Qs next to certain guys for injuries as if
07:37there's a game this week.
07:38i'm like why are they putting a cue next to jerome ford's name that's probably by the guest just from
07:44the last injury report week 18 so that's still like in there because jayden daniels has the red
07:50cue as well so i guess that sticks with you all summer long it's probably just like a coding i
07:56know it's just it's so funny it may just makes me wonder yeah it's funny i'm not worried about it
08:01i'm just like saying why would they even have that there of course i usually look at our lads
08:06uh depth chart yeah like our lads i think it's like position it's like formation based they can
08:11you can sort by formation as well let's see if our lads has any uh notifications on injuries uh no
08:17they do not so there you go all right our next sixth rounder is matthew gulbin center out of michigan
08:24state three-year starter between sparty and wake he started wake before he went to sparty he's a
08:31center right how would we as civilians know what a center is or is not he's played it he played
08:41it
08:41for three years he started the big 10 as a center right he's a center right they don't have another
08:48one on the roster they have allegretti who could it was a guard center yeah that obviously they have
08:54more faith in than maybe fans do and do they have more faith or is that just the best option
09:00now that
09:00plans a and plans b fell apart on them at center i think more faith okay as as evidenced by
09:08releasing
09:08tyler beattish they must have yeah right and i think doc summed the beattish situation up the best
09:14he's like listen everybody said the right thing nobody wanted to hurt any feelings they cut the guy
09:20because they don't think he's getting it done that's the reality it wasn't trouble you does it
09:24trouble you that he got snatched up so quick no i i think they also owed him a bunch of
09:30cash they
09:30care more about the cash to cap than necessarily the cap hit like if my team is cutting a starting
09:39offensive lineman i don't like to see them get picked up right away it's sort of like your ex
09:44dating somebody really good looking right away you're like oh i get it the the move doesn't sit
09:51well on the surface which to doc's point they see something beyond the surface well there's always
09:57other things we never know about the public doesn't know about you may hear whispers other people may
10:02hear they they have their reasons so i'm going to trust that those are valid reasons um now you keep
10:09a lot of o-linemen but they really want a little bomb right yeah they really want them couldn't get
10:14them so let's hope some of that let's hope allegory is good enough like if you really want somebody then
10:20you pay so you they didn't really want them they wanted them like did they match the money that he
10:27ended up getting no okay not in either case all right like i i so they wanted them they just
10:34didn't
10:34want them that bad like zabe i say this all the time i want a range rover i don't really
10:38want it or
10:39i would i would get one you know what i mean even though financially it might not be the smartest
10:43thing right but like you can do those things i think you've got let's hope the center turns out
10:48you want to talk about the quarterback what's your percentage chance oh on on uh gulbin yeah
10:5732 i'm way higher i think it's more than a coin flip i got it at 55 because because they
11:03don't have
11:03okay they don't have a backup center you're right you're right they probably jay gruden many years
11:08ago saying you gotta have a backup center like we were asking him after roster cuts like why some
11:14dude made the team he's like you need someone that can sap the ball that can function yeah right so
11:19that to me like if that was a a guard pick there or a tackle pick there the odds would
11:25be way lower
11:25it'd be yeah it'd be less defensible like technically julian good jones is their backup
11:32i'm looking at them right now yeah like you need a backup center julian good jones what a what a
11:37hyphenated last name good jones which gets us to our seventh round quarterback yes to me if you want
11:45to knock one pick in this draft this is it this was a ridiculous pick this is if i may
11:52they're sticking
11:53to their draft board no matter what yes um this is a process overall logic uh overall logic kind of
12:00pick
12:01this pick has todd husek written all over it this has colt brennan written all over it this is a
12:07guy
12:07who is going to rattle around on the practice squad in the league for a few years and then go
12:12on to a
12:13hopefully a very nice successful life maybe being a broker yeah i don't know he owns an insurance
12:18agency exactly but there's a caveat to what i'm saying about this pick and that is this year as you
12:26know the sixth and seventh rounds absolutely dried up like the mojave desert because of nil and there
12:34are more reaches we're seeing that more and more year after year it's shrinking that the tide is
12:38receding on this and so there are more and more picks by teams in these rounds that would have never
12:44been made in years before hell the eagles took that guy from the ipp who looks like a cartoon character
12:50he's so ripped right uh the defensive end i heard you talking about that sunday yeah and so and one
12:56team took a tight end who never caught a pass in college and they're joking like we should probably
13:00just end the draft now after five rounds that's why the fans that have angst over this quarterback
13:06pick i think just got to relax because oh don't have angst who has angst over this well like there
13:12are people like why don't you just take a corner or safety to add to the depth that guy's probably
13:16not
13:16making the team either the exact the thing that i find interesting with kaliak manis is last year
13:24jayden gets hurt it's marcus for a while then marcus gets hurt it's josh they do not promote hartman
13:30to the active they went and signed jeff driscoll like that was not at all an endorsement of sam hartman's
13:43quarterbacking ability correct and i think right now you only have two on the roster
13:50in marcus and jayden and jayden's undoubtedly the starter marcus is undoubtedly the backup
13:58i don't know what hartman is i maybe not an nfl quarterback he's a he's a future underwear model
14:05dreamy too by the way that may well be the case it's gonna it's gonna hurt a lot of the
14:11uh
14:11of the ladies who are commander fans if he doesn't make the team this year if they're done with him
14:16but yeah i think kaliak manis will have a chance to fight for the third string quarterback role
14:22you
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