- 12 hours ago
The first phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections concluded with an unprecedented voter turnout of over 92 percent across 152 seats in 16 districts.
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00:00Good evening, you're watching NewsTrack with me, Maria Shakil, where I'm coming to you live from the City of Joy,
00:06right in front of the iconic Victoria Memorial.
00:11152 seats spread across 16 districts have polled, and the number which has confused the pollsters and analysts is the
00:21voter turnout.
00:2192 percent, that's high, an unprecedented number with which Bengali voters came out in these districts.
00:32What does it actually mean? Is this a number for the incumbent, a chief minister who has been in power
00:41in the state for 15 years, or is this a vote for change?
00:45We'll try and analyze that with analysts who will be joining me shortly, but today was also the day that
00:53the preparations began for the second phase, which happens on 29th.
00:58Prime Minister Narendra Modi was campaigning in Havra, he held a roadshow, so what all happened today on the polling
01:07day, first phase polling day, here's a quick wrap-up.
01:21As Bengal votes, the nation watches.
01:27It's a high-stakes battle that could redefine the future of both the TMC and the BJP.
01:34CM Mamta Banerjee is in power since 2011, and is eyeing a fourth straight term.
01:41But the BJP that rose from the margins to become the main opposition is firm on stopping Didi.
01:48And the numbers are telling a story.
01:51Bengal recorded a massive turnout of over 91 percent in Phase 1, which is higher than the total voter turnout
01:58of 81.56 percent in 2021.
02:03A surge that raises the big question.
02:05What does this mandate signal?
02:08Is Bengal voting for Pori Bortun or standing firmly with Didi once again?
02:15Even as turnout surged, violence dipped.
02:19Clashes were limited to a few pockets, a contrast to Bengal's turbulent electoral past.
02:26But tensions did flare.
02:30AGUP chief and Nauda candidate Humayu Kabir came under attack during a protest.
02:34His car was targeted by a mob.
02:42In South Dinashpur's Kumar Ganj, BJP candidate Shuvendu Shorkar was allegedly assaulted after raising pooch-jamming allegations.
02:50The cops had to step in as he fled the scene.
02:55And in Asun-Soul, BJP's Agni Mitropal also faced an attack on her convoy.
03:01Yet overall, the scale of violence remained significantly lower.
03:07It is perhaps a result of the election commission's unprecedented security push.
03:12The poll body had deployed 2.4 lakh CAPF personnel, nearly three times that of 2021 across 152 seats.
03:21As Phase 1 voting closed, the battle swiftly shifted gears.
03:26PM Narendra Modi hit the ground in Havra with a mega-road show after offering prayers at Belur Mat.
03:34Mamata Banerjee responded with a show of strength on the streets of Kolkata.
03:40On the other hand, Amish Shah took a swipe by posting a sunset video,
03:45claiming the end of TMC's era of corruption and hooliganism.
03:48This, after both Didi and the Home Minister traded blows at each other.
03:54The government should be able to take the flag of the flag of the government.
04:01The Japanese people, the government of Pune and the government is putting the mind in the Gulf in the Gulf.
04:12AAPNIC BOLCHEN BANGALA SHES, BOTEC DIN AAPNIC JIT CHEN, IT AAPNIC BOLTE PADEN, JANOKON KE BISHYARSH KORUN.
04:21IT ATO JANOKON THIK KORBEE, KAKE JETA ABE NAHA JETA ABE, AAPNA RETA AATO MUHA KI BOLBA, AAMI ONAKER BOLCHEN
04:28ABAJEE PADY TAKING.
04:30AATO MUHA MURKHO HONKI KORE. TARMANE KIA AAMI APNI IBHEMBESHI NE FITKORE RETEKHE DIA CHEN.
04:36High turnout, comparatively lower violence, high decibel campaigning
04:44Both sides confident, both sides relentless
04:51In Bengal's biggest political battleground, the question now is
04:56Khala hobay ya khala shesh
04:58A fourth for Didi or a first for BJP
05:04Bureau Report, India Today
05:09So let's try and understand this unprecedented 92% voter turnout
05:15From those who understand politics of Bengal
05:18And have followed the state very, very closely
05:21We have with us Professor Maidul Islam
05:23Who is the political scientist at the Centre for Studies in Social Sciences in Calcutta
05:29We have Shikha Mukherjee, senior journalist joining us
05:32And also Sajjan Kumar
05:3492% Bengal has come out and voted
05:38And how, Shikha Mukherjee, how should this be seen?
05:42Is it a vote for incumbent or is it a vote for change?
05:48Maria, I'll sort of start by saying that 92% is about a 5-6% increase in the votes
06:00polled
06:01As compared to 2024-2021
06:06So we are not really looking at 92% we are looking at the fact that there has been an
06:12increase in votes polled
06:15The percentage has increased
06:17The actual numbers may very well go down because of the deletions
06:21But the percentage is 5-7% increase between the last vote and now
06:30So this, an increase of this kind suggests to me that this is the SIR effect
06:39We were wondering whether the SIR had any effect or not
06:44And whether that was across all the districts
06:48And here we have a kind of turnout
06:52Which seems to suggest that this is the SIR effect
06:55If this is an SIR effect
06:58Logically speaking, this is a vote against the SIR effect
07:03People have registered their anger and their fear about the SIR process
07:13Of the deletions, the standing in queues
07:16Having to get their documents verified and all of that
07:20And I'll just take one minute more
07:24You know, there is, Moidul is here
07:26So I'm feeling a little embarrassed saying this
07:30But Moidul knows that there is a theory which is about rational choice
07:38Now, rational choice was a theory that suggested
07:43Based on facts before the theory was formulated
07:47That people make a rational choice, rational to themselves
07:53In other words, in their own interests
07:55Now, if that theory and the verification by economists and scientists work
08:01Then it seems that the rational choice that people have exercised
08:09Is for a government that defends their rational interests
08:19In other words, migration effect
08:21The Bangladeshi slur effect
08:23The Bengali culture effect and all of that
08:31Okay, so let's try and take that thread
08:33Particularly of rational choices
08:35And is the rational choice
08:37Also, Professor Islam, linked to the fact
08:41That, because I've been travelling in several parts of Bengal
08:44One sense that I do get is
08:46That the voters are also silent
08:50That they do not wish to reveal their choices on camera
08:54Although the fear that I sensed in 2021
08:57To now is gone
08:59They are speaking about it
09:01But there is a high percentage
09:03Which believes that they should not reveal their choices
09:06Although they talk about larger issues
09:09That will decide their vote
09:12So when you look at this percentage
09:14Yes, it could be the impact of the SIR
09:17But the other reading could also be
09:19That it could be about those
09:23Who conducted the process of SIR
09:28Yeah, so first of all
09:29The voter turnouts in other states also
09:31If you look at Bihar and Tamil Nadu
09:34And Puduchiri and Sam
09:36Yes
09:37That has also gone up
09:39Precisely because of the deletion
09:42Of the absent and the shifted
09:44And the duplicate and the dead categories
09:46Which means that those who were anywhere dead
09:49Or shifted or double entry voters
09:51They are not counted
09:53So as a result
09:54The total number of voters in the electoral roll
09:57That has come down
09:58And because there is this whole fear
10:00That a lot of people may get
10:03Their votes may get deleted
10:05If they don't vote this time
10:08They have actually turned out
10:11Which means that a lot of people
10:13Who are, let's say, political apathy
10:14From the point of view of political apathy
10:16Generally a lot of, you know
10:18People who doesn't want to vote
10:19And turn out on the voting day, right
10:21They have turned out
10:23Migrant laborers
10:24Migrant workers from other states
10:26You know, they have come to
10:27Their respective booths
10:29And they have turned out, right
10:31This may not have happened
10:33In the 2021-2024
10:36Where the voting percentage
10:37Was in and around 80-82%
10:39Generally Bengal's voter turnout
10:41Is always over 80% on an average
10:43So this is okay
10:44So first of all
10:45This voter turnout
10:46Is not a surprise to me, right
10:48Now how do you interpret turnout?
10:50First of all
10:51There is very little credible
10:54Academic analysis
10:56Between, let's say, voter turnout
10:58And the outcome of the results
11:00You have very different kinds of outcomes
11:02So I am not going into that
11:04But I will just hint at
11:06The long-term political trends in Bengal
11:09Generally
11:10And each state has their own political trends
11:13And electoral behavior
11:14So one long-term trend is that
11:16Generally the party
11:18That's right, yes
11:19Generally the party
11:20Which wins the Lok Sabha election
11:22They win the subsequent
11:24Vidhan Sabha elections
11:26This has been the trend
11:27Since 1977 Lok Sabha
11:30And 1977 Vidhan Sabha elections
11:32And this is still kind of going on
11:36In the last two years
11:39Particularly from 2024
11:41Apart from the Arjikar movement
11:43Where there is an urban conglomeration
11:45And that to the movement
11:46Was not led by the BJP
11:48Where the BJP also doesn't have
11:51A credible mass leader
11:52They don't have a chief ministerial face
11:54Apart from this whole SIR anxiety
11:56The harassment
11:57The non-transparent nature of the SIR
11:59All sort of things happened
12:00And this whole Trinambul
12:01Was able to posture themselves
12:03As that the massaya
12:04Of these people
12:05Whose names got deleted
12:06Or because of their interventions
12:08Their names got included
12:09I will still think
12:11That this election
12:13Will be in a way
12:14Going against the BJP
12:16Although
12:17Although
12:17There is anti-incumbency
12:19But this anti-incumbency
12:21Would not become an issue
12:22And particularly in this phase
12:24Which is the first phase
12:26Where the BJP
12:26Was relatively stronger
12:28Both organisation and electorally
12:30Fine
12:30Let me bring in Sajjan as well now
12:33Okay
12:34Let me bring in Sajjan as well now
12:36Sajjan
12:36You know
12:38One thing is also clear
12:39With this voter turnout
12:41That both sides
12:42Managed to mobilise their voters
12:45Both sides ensured
12:47That their voters
12:48Supporters
12:48Reach
12:49The polling booth
12:50The fact is
12:52That the migrant workers
12:53And helps
12:55In several parts
12:56Of India
12:57NCR
12:58The National Capital Region
13:00And other parts
13:01Have travelled to their
13:02Districts in Bengal
13:04To cast their vote
13:05So there is that great
13:06Voter awareness
13:08Which has been there
13:09In this election as well
13:10So again
13:12Of course
13:13There is no empirical evidence
13:14To suggest
13:15That high voter turnout
13:17Is pro-incumbent
13:18Or anti-incumbent
13:19And as Shikha Mukherjee
13:22Was also highlighting
13:23That the 6%
13:24Could be because
13:25Of the SIR exercise
13:26What's your reading Sajjan?
13:29Maria if you see
13:302021
13:31The overall voting percentage
13:34Was around 82.5%
13:36However by 2024 election
13:39It came down to 79.5%
13:42Almost 2.5 to 3%
13:45Now taking the last election
13:47That is 2024
13:48As the base
13:49Which is 79.5%
13:51And right now
13:52It's 92%
13:53Which we all know
13:54Once the overall
13:56Voting gets updated
13:57It will slightly increase
13:59See it's almost
14:0013% increase
14:02Now what we have seen
14:04In a state like Bihar
14:05Or Tamil Nadu
14:06Which went under poll
14:08After the SIR
14:09The increase was
14:11Corresponding to the
14:12Percentage of the votes
14:14Deleted
14:14Right
14:14So 10% deletion
14:16In Bengal
14:17It still meant
14:19That 89 to 90%
14:21But this 2 to 2.5%
14:23More votes
14:24So which means
14:25It is SIR
14:26Plus other factors
14:28Now coming to that
14:29Which means
14:30That both sides
14:31Be it DMC
14:33Or BJP
14:34They all succeeded
14:36In mobilizing
14:37Their respective
14:38Support base
14:39Right
14:40Now why it is
14:42Difficult to interpret
14:43It
14:43One thing is
14:45Clear that there
14:46Was anti-incumbency
14:48On the ground
14:48Which certainly
14:50Will benefit
14:50The BJP
14:51Because it's a
14:52Bipolar election
14:53But to what extent
14:55We should be
14:56Hedging right now
14:57Yes
14:57But one thing
14:58Is clear
14:59That BJP
15:01Despite
15:02Organizational
15:03Weakness
15:03Will see
15:04A upward
15:05Momentum
15:05And TMC
15:07Despite
15:07The organisational
15:09Entrenchment
15:10Will see
15:11A downward
15:12But to say
15:13That TMC
15:14Will slide
15:15Below the
15:15Majority mark
15:16And BJP
15:17Will cross
15:18Majority mark
15:18This is something
15:19It would be
15:20Too soon to say
15:21Because we do
15:22Know in Bengal
15:23You know
15:24Bengali society
15:25The voting election
15:26Is like a
15:27Prisoner's dilemma
15:28And one of the
15:29References
15:29While in rest of
15:30India
15:30People talk to
15:31Each other
15:32In public
15:33Square
15:33In group
15:33You go and ask
15:35They will openly
15:36Say they are
15:36Voting preferences
15:37In Bengal
15:38You know
15:39People go silent
15:41The moment
15:41They are into
15:42The public
15:42Spear
15:43I agree with you
15:44Because several
15:45Several
15:46Yes
15:47Several pockets
15:48You do sense
15:50That silent
15:51Vote bank
15:52Or silent voter
15:53We don't know
15:54Which way these
15:54Silent voters
15:55Are going
15:56Are they going
15:56For the incumbent
15:57Or are they
15:58Voting anti-incumbent
16:00But let's try
16:01And understand
16:02From all of you
16:03Starting with
16:04Professor
16:05Islam
16:05About 152
16:07Seats done
16:09142 seats
16:10To go
16:11What will you
16:12Be watching out
16:13For in these
16:15Days
16:15Before the
16:16Silence period
16:17Begins on
16:1727th
16:20One thing
16:21I think
16:22First of all
16:23The 152
16:24Where the BGP
16:24Did relatively
16:25Well in
16:26North Bengal
16:27And the
16:28Western part
16:29Of Bengal
16:30In both
16:302021 and 2024
16:33The RSS
16:34Has been
16:34Working in the
16:35Tribal pockets
16:36In parts of
16:37North Bengal
16:38And parts of
16:40Western Bengal
16:40And that
16:42Actually
16:43Kind of
16:44Helped the BGP
16:45To
16:46You know
16:47Get enough
16:48Votes
16:48To even
16:49Win seats
16:50From these
16:51Two regions
16:51But we
16:53Are now
16:53Entering
16:54A phase
16:56Where the
16:56Trinamul
16:57Actually swept
16:58This is the
16:59Old guard
17:00Of Trinamul
17:01Like the
17:01Bengal
17:02The presidency
17:03Region
17:03Which is
17:03Calcutta
17:04And it's
17:04Adjusted
17:05Districts
17:05Of
17:05South 24
17:08Parganas
17:09Kolkata
17:10And everything
17:10Yes
17:11And then
17:12Nadia
17:12Which is not
17:13Part of
17:13Presidency
17:14But
17:14Southeast
17:15Kind of
17:17Region
17:17Now
17:18What I
17:19What is
17:19From the
17:20BGP's
17:20Point of
17:20View
17:21It will
17:21Be
17:22One has
17:23To see
17:24Whether
17:24The BGP
17:25Will be
17:25Able
17:25To
17:26Hold
17:27On
17:27To
17:27Certain
17:28Pockets
17:28Of
17:29North
17:2924
17:30Parganas
17:30And Nadia
17:31Where there
17:32Have been
17:32Large scale
17:33Deletions
17:34Of
17:35Voters
17:35And there
17:35Is also
17:36Resentment
17:36Because you
17:37Know
17:37Once your
17:37Vote
17:38Get deleted
17:38Your locality
17:39Your neighborhood
17:40Or your
17:41Family
17:41That had a
17:42Resentment
17:43That look
17:43You know
17:43I'm a
17:44Genuine
17:44Voter
17:44And like
17:45You know
17:45My name
17:47Is deleted
17:48And this
17:49Has been
17:49Happening
17:49Not
17:50And I'm
17:50Talking
17:50About
17:51Only
17:51Non-Muslims
17:52Because of
17:53Course the
17:53Muslims
17:53Hardly vote
17:54For BGP
17:55As for
17:55The post
17:56The CSDN
17:57Is possible
17:57Certainly
17:586-7%
17:59They vote
17:59For the
17:59BGP
18:00But I'm
18:00Just saying
18:00That even
18:01Among the
18:02Hindus
18:03Where the
18:05BGP
18:05Had a
18:05Base
18:06Among the
18:06Madhuas
18:07And among
18:07The Hindu
18:08OVCs
18:08Whether the
18:10Deletions
18:10Of family
18:12Members
18:12And in
18:14Their
18:14Neighborhoods
18:15Whether that
18:16Will
18:16Create a
18:17Condition
18:18Will actually
18:19Mean
18:19That generate
18:21The larger
18:21Fear
18:22The larger
18:23Fear
18:24I have
18:24Just
18:24Enough
18:25Time
18:25For both
18:26Chika
18:26Mukherjee
18:26And
18:27Sajjan
18:27So
18:28Sajjan
18:28First
18:2830 seconds
18:30To you
18:30And then
18:30The last
18:31Word to
18:31The woman
18:31On the
18:31Panel
18:32Please
18:32Go ahead
18:32Sajjan
18:33Look out
18:34Of this
18:35152
18:36Seats
18:36BJP
18:36Needs
18:37To win
18:37At least
18:3885 to
18:3990
18:39Seats
18:39If it
18:40Has to
18:41Win
18:41Which means
18:42Inverting
18:43The equation
18:44Of the
18:442021
18:45A plausible
18:47But still
18:48A difficult
18:48Task
18:49To
18:50On SIR
18:51Very briefly
18:53Despite
18:54The deletion
18:55You know
18:55The Matua
18:56Pocket
18:56Still is
18:57Pro-BJP
18:58Murshidabad
18:59Despite
19:00Deletion
19:00The minority
19:01Population
19:02Is still
19:02Pro-TMC
19:03You know
19:04So
19:04Individually
19:05Here and
19:05There
19:05It's
19:05There
19:05But
19:06It
19:06Doesn't
19:06Change
19:06The
19:07Direction
19:07Of
19:07The
19:07Board
19:08Yeah
19:08So
19:09I
19:09Think
19:10BJP
19:11Would
19:11It
19:11Be
19:11Able
19:11To
19:12So
19:12You
19:12Are
19:14Hedging
19:14That's
19:15Quintessential
19:16Sajjan
19:16Also
19:18You
19:18Were
19:18Hedging
19:19Also
19:19In
19:19Bihar
19:20When
19:20We
19:20Were
19:21Having
19:21Those
19:21Conversations
19:22About
19:22The
19:23Trends
19:23Sajjan
19:24So
19:24Let
19:24Me
19:24Give
19:25The
19:26Last
19:26Word
19:26To
19:26Shikha
19:27Mukherji
19:27Someone
19:28Who
19:29Has Been
19:29Watching
19:29Bengal
19:30Politics
19:31Very
19:31Very
19:31Closely
19:31So
19:32Shikha
19:32Mukherji
19:33Please
19:33Go ahead
19:33Ma'am
19:3330
19:34Seconds
19:35Okay
19:35This
19:36The
19:36Next
19:36Page
19:37142
19:38Seats
19:38Is
19:41TNC
19:41Tough
19:42Where
19:43The
19:43BJP
19:44Strike
19:44Rate
19:45In
19:452021
19:46Was
19:47Approximately
19:4813%
19:50So
19:51If
19:52The
19:52BJP
19:52Has
19:53To
19:53Pump
19:54Up
19:55Its
19:55Figures
19:56Dramatically
19:56In
19:58Order
19:58To
19:58Oust
19:59Mamata
20:00Banerji
20:00Which
20:00Is
20:01What
20:02Their
20:03Campaign
20:03Has
20:04Been
20:04All
20:04About
20:04Then
20:05Their
20:05Strike
20:06Rate
20:06Will
20:07Have
20:07To
20:07Work
20:07From
20:0713%
20:08To
20:09Some
20:09Phenomenal
20:10Number
20:11Now
20:13Is
20:14That
20:14Really
20:15Possible
20:15With
20:15An
20:16SIR
20:16Effect
20:16I
20:17Don't
20:21Okay
20:21So
20:23Shikha
20:23Mukherji
20:23Has
20:24Declared
20:24The
20:25Results
20:25The
20:26Mandate
20:26She
20:26Has
20:26Said
20:27That
20:27Is
20:27Very
20:28Clear
20:28That
20:28It's
20:28TMC
20:29On
20:30Fourth
20:31It's
20:31That's
20:32The
20:32Verdict
20:32Coming
20:33From
20:33Her
20:33Professor
20:34Islam
20:34Shikha
20:35Mukherji
20:35And
20:36Sajjan
20:36Kumar
20:36Really
20:36Appreciate
20:37Your
20:37Time
20:37Thank
20:37You
20:37So
20:38Much
20:38Of
20:39Course
20:39It's
20:39Phase
20:39One
20:40Which
20:40Has
20:40Got
20:40Novo
20:41There
20:42Is
20:42A
20:42Significant
20:43Phase
20:43Two
20:43Which
20:44Will
20:44Be
20:45Happening
20:45On
20:4529th
20:46And
20:47The
20:47Results
20:47On
20:48Fourth
20:48Something
20:49We'll
20:49Track
20:49Very
20:49Closely
20:50That's
20:50All
20:50From
20:50Me
20:51Thanks
20:51So
20:51Much
20:51For
20:51Watching
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