- 7 weeks ago
The latest India Today C-Voter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll projects the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to secure 326 seats with a 45 percent vote share if Lok Sabha general elections were held today. Based on a survey of over one lakh respondents, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to win 261 seats, placing it below the majority mark independently. The Congress rises to 106 seats, bringing the total projection for the INDIA alliance to 185 seats. In Uttar Pradesh, the INDIA alliance leads with 41 seats compared to 38 for the NDA, driven by voter concerns over youth unemployment, examination transparency, and University Grants Commission (UGC) policies. Conversely, the NDA shows gains in West Bengal. National leadership ratings indicate Prime Minister Narendra Modi holds a 58 percent approval rating, with political stability cited as a key strength while inflation and joblessness remain primary public concerns. Within the opposition, Rahul Gandhi leads preference ratings as panelists analyze regional dynamics across states.
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NewsTranscript
00:26Hello and welcome once again to the
00:29India today biannual mood of the nation that's right the poll that's been going on for more than two decades
00:36brought to you by C voter and it is coming at a time when the country's politics is going through
00:43some kind of turbulence it's been a turbulent year particularly since when we did the last mood of the nation
00:50in January you've had conflicts agitations and plenty more what is then the mood of the nation the India today
00:59C voter poll is here with the most definitive mood tracker of what's the mood and what would happen if
01:07elections were held today.
01:09With me are all my colleagues starting from the extreme left Siddharth Zarabi editor of business today joined by Raj
01:19Chengappa editorial director India today also Preeti Chaudhary, Maria Shaquille, Gaurav Savant all with you and Yashwan Deshmukh who remember
01:30is the one who's put this poll together for C voter.
01:34Also joining me is the congress' Brijesh Kalappa we also hope to be joined by our BJP guest shortly.
01:41Okay now remember one of the things that the mood of the nation does is what happens if elections are
01:47held today.
01:48That's if general elections are held in August of 2026 what would happen.
01:57Projected vote share but before that I want Yashwan to tell us when he's done the poll and what was
02:03the sample size.
02:04Yashwan you want to go and kick start by just giving us exactly when this poll was done and what's
02:10the sample size.
02:12Absolutely Rajdeep and very quickly on to that because now the viewers and audiences have known our tracker for more
02:18than 25 years as you just mentioned that there are two different parts of the poll that one is the
02:23new questions which Raj and the India Today editorial team fixes up every time before every edition of the moon
02:28operation which are very much relevant for the issues that are hitting the ground today and that is the tracking
02:34part which does the routine questions every day day after day after day.
02:38And so every six months we compile that as well so for the new questions we have done almost 25
02:44,000 plus samples in the last four weeks to be precise and a big chunk of them we have done
02:51actually in the last two weeks because that is where the crisis was hitting up.
02:56So a lot of many new questions were drawn at that point of time to understand the change on the
03:01ground and on the tracking part there is almost like 90,000 samples that we have done in the last
03:07six months to track the things on the ground.
03:10So these two significantly large sample sizes out there and we have analyzed both of the sets to understand the
03:18current fraction on the ground and also the long-term trend points on the series.
03:23Okay so more than one lakh respondents spread across the states of the country relatively representative but of course with
03:30all the caveats that polls are injurious to health please keep that in mind particularly in a country like India.
03:38Okay projected vote share if elections were held today as per the sea voter poll for India today boot of
03:46the nation NDA would end up with 45 percent that's minus two but when you look at minus two remember
03:53this is of course in comparison to where we have stood over recent polls.
03:59So that's 45 percent to the NDA that's what they got 47 percent in January of 2026 down to India
04:07Alliance 39 percent others 16 percent so it's a 2 percent swing as of now projected seat share NDA if
04:20elections were held today would get 326.
04:23Now that remember also includes the fact that the NDA has been boosted by recent parties breaking up and joining
04:31it.
04:31Now this is in contrast to 352 which the NDA was getting six months ago so they are down 26.
04:39India Alliance is only marginally up 185 up 3.
04:4432 are others so the largest chunk are coming to these parties up 23.
04:51Projected vote share party wise BJP 39 percent down 2 percent compared to January 2026 Congress 21 percent up 1
05:03others 40 percent minus 1 and take a look at seat share that's where the BJP is getting a significant
05:10drop of 26 seats compared to January 261 below the halfway mark down 26.
05:17But the Congress is going to 106 that's up 26 again compared to 2026 January but still well short of
05:28the majority while the BJP is very close to the halfway mark.
05:32So the gap between the BJP and Congress remains significant.
05:37Others are as much as 176 at the moment.
05:42So that's the first big takeaway if elections were held today you would still have an NDA government.
05:49The Congress may have made small gains compared to six months ago but clearly nowhere close to the BJP.
05:57Let's get in first reactions.
05:58Raj Chendapa your cover apparently which I just saw is saying warning signals.
06:04But when I look at these numbers the fact is 261 versus 106 326 NDA versus India Alliance 185 the
06:13gap is still significant.
06:15You know Rajdeep this poll has come at a very important point because we've had this Gen Z rage and
06:21uprising and everybody is curious to know what would be the impact.
06:24For the NDA and the BJP I think the comforting news is that the drop is not you know getting
06:33them to rush to panic buttons.
06:35They have certainly dropped and as you mentioned dropped 26 seats by the BJP which puts them into this uncomfortable
06:41position of having to depend on the NDA.
06:44That's theoretically speaking.
06:45And overall the NDA gets 326 still well within their comfort zones.
06:50But I think the big message and that's why we're saying the warning signals is that there are various other
06:56questions that are there whether you're looking at the economics.
06:59We will come to those.
07:00Sure.
07:00We will come to those.
07:01These are opening remarks.
07:02At the moment you're saying that.
07:04While there's no panic buttons there's plenty to worry about and that's why we're going with warning signals that they
07:10need to course correct on various fronts.
07:12Maria Preeti dive in warning signals or do you believe that there is a comfort factor.
07:17With the BJP you track the BJP if they look at these numbers will they be comforted.
07:22Not really because Rajdeep let's not forget that this is coming after 4th of May and 4th of May and
07:29weeks after that and two weeks before that was almost total electoral dominance of the BJP.
07:36BJP likes that kind of comfort when they have enough and more cushion around them.
07:41When they were entering the monsoon session of parliament it was almost certain that they will ensure the passage of
07:46the delimitation bill.
07:47With the number of this nature of course the BJP will say that their dominance remains but because this is
07:54a party which believes in course correction they believe that if there are certain warning signals they should read those
08:01signals.
08:01And that is the reason why you are seeing the entire shift also in terms of messaging that is coming
08:08in from the party.
08:09Rajdeep two things if you look at it right now.
08:11So of course we are looking at these numbers from what our last mood of the nation numbers were which
08:17was in January.
08:18And at that point of time BJP alone was comfortably above the halfway mark.
08:22So here it's not above the halfway mark and we'll have to like Rajstad depend theoretically on its allies.
08:28But two things have happened.
08:29Since January when our last mood of the nation took place to now there have been two elections which have
08:35taken place where one the BJP has won handsomely in West Bengal.
08:38And the other where you've had you know what sparked the entire Gen Z movement I would think was the
08:43state of Tamil Nadu with Vijay coming in.
08:46And then subsequently you've had this massive you know youth upsurge in various protests not just the one which happened
08:54at Jantar Mantar.
08:55I'd like to know through the course of what we're going to go ahead over the course of two hours
08:59Rajdeep.
09:00Which one weighs more? Where has the BJP gained? Where has it lost?
09:03Are the numbers that you know is keeping it seemingly comfortable coming from states like West Bengal?
09:09It has the Gen Z is the one which is pulling it down.
09:12I want you know deep dive in that.
09:13Gaurav your first remarks.
09:1512 years in power.
09:17After 10 years the Congress had come down to 44.
09:21The BJP is at 261 just 11 short of forming the government on its own.
09:27With its NDA allies the BJP or the NDA comfortably forming the government despite massive global headwinds that the government
09:35is facing on multiple fronts.
09:38You know the economy is facing headwinds.
09:41There's war that's happening between Iran and the United States of America.
09:45And despite all these headwinds the government according to these numbers is at 200 the BJP at 261 and the
09:52NDA at 326.
09:54Now this is actually writing on the wall Rajdeep that the opposition and Gen Z whatever they may have sought
10:04to do did they actually succeed or has the government still been able to hold forth.
10:10Okay there's a distinction of course we must draw between possibly Siddharth Zarabi the government's ability to win elections and
10:17electability and the issues.
10:19That's why the cover is warning signals we'll deep dive into that in a moment but your first reactions because
10:24across the world you expect after a certain stage a government in power for more than a decade.
10:30Gaurav is right there registering some decline by and large the BJP's lowest numbers if I look at it MOTN
10:36over the last few years was actually soon after 2024 Lok Sabha where they came down to 244.
10:43Since then they peaked at 287 in January of 2024 they've come down again and here too they're being saved
10:50by the fact that they're doing well in states like West Bengal which they were not doing well six months
10:55ago.
10:55Rajdeep you spoke about West Bengal and I want to connect that with a very significant point that Preeti alluded
11:01to.
11:02Between then and now let's take a look at the increase in the number of MLA seats that the BJP
11:08has got.
11:09Roughly 44% of all MLA assembly constituencies in India are now BJP ruled and there has been a substantial
11:17accretion to that on account of West Bengal alone.
11:22Has the popular imagery and some issues dented the image of course but add to the MLA seats increase in
11:31the same period that we are seeing an over on decline at the parliamentary level as per these projections.
11:37You also have to take into account and ask yourself the question has the BJP organizational machinery been dented during
11:44this time Rajdeep.
11:45The answer is no has the BJP and its Panna Pramukh strategy of going to the last boot to the
11:51last person been weakened in any manner.
11:53No and as a consequence of recent developments have we seen in the organizational revamp of the BJP machinery closer
12:03coordination between RSS and the BJP the answer again is yes.
12:08So I would say that in the real world some of these projections would be tested in the other direction.
12:13Just a quick point that I wanted to make while Siddharth mentions the fact that the BJP has won so
12:20many states and I think it's 22 out of 28 after West Bengal.
12:24The fact is they were coming in from a peak and suddenly if our results begin to show they should
12:31have then reflected that they were getting much higher than what they got in the last polls because the sheer
12:37fact that they'd won West Bengal,
12:39they'd won Delhi earlier, Maharashtra, all these things after 2024 yet those numbers are not adding up when it comes
12:47to the final Lok Sabha tally and that I think is the cause for worry because certainly this one month
12:52period or two month period that May and June when they should have been on top suddenly they seem to
12:59have dropped.
12:59And that is why I am saying there are serious issues that they need to look at.
13:03Let me go to Sanju Verma and Rajesh Kalappa who are also joining us, one of the BJP, one of
13:07the Congress.
13:08Sanju Verma, when I look at these numbers, it's only for the third time in the last 24 months the
13:15BJP is slipping below 272.
13:17Now I know that you will probably see 261 as just short of a majority and with your allies you
13:23are well over 300.
13:24Should you worry when you start dropping 26 seats compared to our last poll because the one danger is that
13:32once you lose momentum you can decline further.
13:37Do you worry about these numbers or are you comforted by the fact that the opposition is still well behind?
13:44You know Rajdeep, I think the biggest advantage for the Modi government and the BJP in particular is the fact
13:51that BJP due to its organizational strength is able to convert vote share into winnable seats.
13:59You know, for instance, the MOTN poll says the NDA will have a vote share of 45% and BJP
14:07standalone 39%.
14:09Now if you're giving the BJP a standalone of 39% and I take into account the trajectory of the
14:17last 11 elections that have happened in states and union territories post-2024 low-sub-elections,
14:24then using a simple unitary method of calculation, that 39% vote share should translate into actually 289 seats.
14:35So the arithmetic there is certainly not right if I have to extrapolate the average of the last MOTN polls
14:44and juxtapose that against 39%, BJP should be getting 289, not 261.
14:52Point number one, pure arithmetic based on MOTN data.
14:56The second point I want to make is this.
14:58You look at Uttar Pradesh where our closest competitor in 2022 was Samajwadi Party.
15:03The vote share difference was barely 9% to 10%.
15:06But the BJP scored 255 and Akhile Shadav's party was limited to 111 despite a 10% surge in vote
15:14share.
15:15Again, bringing us back to the same point that Samajwadi Party was not able to translate a rise in vote
15:21share into winnable seats.
15:22Then let's talk about Lok Sama 2024 very quickly.
15:25Out of the 64 crore-odd votes that were cast, 23.59 crore votes were cast in favour of the
15:35BJP.
15:36Now, if we have to maintain in absolute terms 23.59 crore voters who will continue to vote for BJP,
15:45even if you use that method of calculation, BJP should be getting at least 293 to 294 seats.
15:52As I said, ma'am, you're giving the arithmetic point.
15:57There is arithmetic in election, there's chemistry.
15:59When you look at the arithmetic point, you can make an argument.
16:02No, no, ma'am, there is limited time.
16:04You've made your point.
16:06I gave you uninterrupted time.
16:07You claim that arithmetically, the BJP, you believe, based on a 39% vote share,
16:12should still be above the halfway mark of 272.
16:15I'll get Yashwad in a moment to counter that.
16:17But, Rajesh Kalappa, the fact is, and this is really what the opposition should have a warning signal,
16:23that at a time when there are agitations, there have been global headwinds because of the conflict in West Asia,
16:29the Gen Z agitation, the truth of the matter is,
16:32this is not necessarily translating into a higher vote share or seats.
16:36The Congress, if you look at over the last decade, has remained in the 18 to 24% range in
16:41our MOTNs.
16:42You are not crossing that important psychological mark of 25% plus to start winning more and more seats and
16:50closing the gap.
16:55Rajdeep, the first thing is that as far as my understanding goes,
17:00I think these polls were conducted before the 4th of May, right?
17:05And if there is one motionless moment in the entire...
17:09No, no, no, these polls are conducted, sir, in the last four weeks.
17:12And majority in the last two weeks.
17:15Okay, okay.
17:16So I stand corrected.
17:18See, there are three issues which are foremost in people's minds.
17:22And the first was E20, that is ethanol 20.
17:26This has had a huge impact on Modi government.
17:30The second issue is the Ram Temple loot.
17:32And then you have also had a case which, you know, was reported yesterday, where councillors of Shahjanabad, they all
17:41gathered together and over Gangajal, they promised to each other that they are going to share the loot.
17:47And this is very similar to what is happening in Ram Janambhumi loot, where almost 25,000...
17:53Sir, you are not answering my question, sir.
17:56My question is, despite the Ram Chanda jori, how is this not translating into higher numbers?
18:03That's all I'm asking.
18:05Sanjuji, this is not a debate.
18:07So I'll let you come later.
18:09No, see, Rajdeep, I...
18:12No, no, one minute.
18:13No, what I would like to say is that a similar poll gave a much higher number in 2024.
18:21In 2024, what happened then?
18:23I think your polls itself indicated that 336 would be how much the BJP would get in 2024, May.
18:30So how much did they eventually get?
18:32So I think there is always a margin of error.
18:35And, you know, when a party is declining, and that decline is clearly visible to all of us, not just
18:42on social media, on otherwise.
18:45We are able to witness that there has been a massive transformation in the way people perceive the government.
18:52And particularly those in the age group of 18 and 35.
18:56And this is going to have a massive impact on the...
19:00But Mr. Kharappa, all of that is already factored in.
19:03Ram Gandhir is factored in, the Gen Z protest is factored in.
19:07All of that is factored into this poll.
19:13No, that's exactly what I was trying to say, Preeti.
19:16That in 2024, your poll, which was predicting what the BJP was going to get, and BJP claimed 400 par.
19:25Your poll claimed that they would get something like 336.
19:30It would get 304.
19:31We are predicting 304 for the BJP.
19:34Sir, I take your point that polls can go wrong.
19:38Let Yashwat Deshmukh respond.
19:40You see, Yashwat Deshmukh, this is the argument over the numbers.
19:43Sanyu Verma makes a persuasive argument based on vote share.
19:46She believes, look at the vote share of the BJP, relatively steady.
19:49Why should the seats drop so much?
19:51A. On the other hand, the Congress could argue that you actually gave 304 seats to the BJP in MOT
19:58in February 2024.
20:00Guess what they got?
20:02So, there is a stark difference sometimes between the numbers you throw up in MOTN and what happens on the
20:08ground.
20:08Which is why I said polls are injurious to health.
20:10But you want to respond to the politicians.
20:13Of course.
20:14I mean, first thing first, we never said 400 par.
20:17India today, she would have never said 400 par.
20:19No, not 400 par.
20:19You said 304.
20:20So, and that happened four months prior to the poll.
20:24So, there is a gap between four months, between our last MOTN, between another actual polling that happened in 2024.
20:32Having said that, what I wanted to say is that stats are notoriously known for hiding more than what they
20:40revealed actually, Razdeep.
20:42I would like you to just focus on one thing.
20:45Treat Bengal as a basket case, as a separate case and rest of India as a separate case.
20:50And if you remove the gains of BJP in West Brangal in this poll, then BJP's actual number would go
20:58below what they got in 2024.
21:02So, when Raj Chengappa puts up a headline of warning signal, warning shot on the cover, I believe that those
21:09who understand the numbers within the BJP would take notice of that.
21:13They would understand precisely what Raj Chengappa is hinting at.
21:17They would go through the numbers and understand that one state's gain, which is pretty much their gain.
21:23I give it to them.
21:24They won Bengal, hands down and at the end of the day, all you need is 272 and every state
21:30counts in that.
21:31But when you are gaining out of a sheer anti-incumbency in one state, but you have a gradual and
21:39significant loss due to multitudes of results across all other states, then there is a warning signal that needs to
21:47be read.
21:47As per my experience, Razdeep, this arguably is the biggest crisis time that the BJP is facing in the last
21:5612 years of being in power.
21:57However, this probably is even worse than wave two of COVID and the crisis that aftermath because in the public
22:05opinion, the COVID happened at something as a pandemic, which was out of scope for everybody to handle.
22:12But here we are starting with the UGC, Ram Mandir, class 12th issue, the need at ethanol, the sheer scope
22:22of the crisis one after the other.
22:24However, this government has been going through in the last three months plan is made certainly makes the most challenging
22:30period in the last five years that you're making a big statement there that this is the most challenging period
22:37that the BJP is facing in the last 12 years.
22:40And let's break that down, because one of the real headline points is coming at the moment.
22:46When we look at states, and remember, this is a poll which has been done across the country.
22:51So you could argue that it doesn't have the same sample size per state.
22:55But there is a major state that's going to the polls in five months from now.
22:59And that is Uttar Pradesh, which often decides the scope of Indian elections as per the sea voter, mood of
23:07the nation poll done for India today in Uttar Pradesh.
23:10The numbers are very, very interesting.
23:13India Alliance is projected to get 40 percent vote share.
23:19NDA is projected to get 42 percent of vote share.
23:24Now, this is the NDA as a result is down 5 percent compared to January 2026 and the India Alliance
23:34down 2 percent.
23:35But seed share as per Yashwat Deshmukh's sea voter poll, I put that caveat all the time.
23:42India Alliance is projected to get 41 out of the 80 seats.
23:46NDA 38.
23:47Now, in the last poll we did, NDA was 48 and the India Alliance was 31.
23:55So you've got a significant shift.
23:57The biggest shift that's taken place across the states as of now, West Bengal, which we'll come to in a
24:04moment, heavily in favor of NDA.
24:06But Uttar Pradesh moving away and going towards the India Alliance.
24:11And if these numbers hold, that changes the political map of the country.
24:16I mean, Maria, you want to look at that because this is the number that will concern the BJP more
24:21than anything else because it is Uttar Pradesh.
24:23Yes, and Rajdi, while we focus on the entire discussion which is happening largely around Chandachori and the city of
24:31Ayodhya,
24:31I think the bigger concern for the BJP right now is the debate around UGC and the reservation debate which
24:40has been started by a section,
24:41which also has the support of somebody like...
24:45The anti-reservation, you mean?
24:46Yes, the deputy chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, who himself, did a press conference along with one of the protesters.
24:54So I think the BJP is realizing that more than Chandachori, because Yogi Adityanath per se, his persona remains untouched
25:04as far as corruption is concerned.
25:06But this is an issue where their core vote bank can be impacted.
25:12And they do not wish to touch this issue.
25:14But it has been touched.
25:15Priti?
25:16You know, Rajdeep, I think we need to be a little more cautious because can we really extrapolate Lok Sabha
25:22numbers to a state election?
25:23And I think we really need to look at that because these are numbers that are reflecting in terms of
25:28if elections were held today in Lok Sabha,
25:31then it seems that the BJP is even-stevened on what it was in 2024.
25:35Now, can we actually say that the UP elections that are in five months' time are going to follow the
25:42same trajectory?
25:43No, I think state elections and, you know, general elections are two different ballgames.
25:49And we need to, you know, and there is a cautionary tale in that.
25:51We've seen that happen so many times.
25:53I'll give you an example of Odisha.
25:54You and I both know it.
25:55Where for the same election, the polity and the voters went and voted the BJP in one election and the
26:02BJD in the other.
26:02The BJP was in 2019, but I'll give you an example, a UP example that you can take.
26:08In Uttar Pradesh in 2022, the BJP scored a big victory.
26:13Two years later comes Lok Sabha, the Samajwaji Party Congress Alliance scores a victory.
26:17But the fact is, that's the alliance that's going into poll.
26:19I have to go by the national numbers.
26:21You know, we can extrapolate and you're right to say that you cannot suggest that just because a Lok Sabha
26:26poll as per MOTN is going against a party,
26:28that will happen in a state election.
26:30For example, Chandachori, is it being seen as the slight of the center or the state?
26:35How is it being perceived by the people locally?
26:38I think we've come to the Chandachori numbers also in a moment.
26:43But clearly, if there is one warning signal, I'm only looking at the warning signal, that's the cover story.
26:48The one big warning signal at the moment is coming from a state that the BJP has more or less
26:53dominated,
26:54except for that 2024 election, over a 15-year period.
26:57Yes, Raj, you wanted to say something.
26:58Just a quick point.
26:59I agree that there should be caveats.
27:01We cannot project what we are looking nationally into a particular state election and say that this is the trend.
27:07But broadly, if you look at it, there is, the BJP always boasts of this, this double-engine Sarkar.
27:13And the fact is, there's a lot of dependence on Prime Minister Modi and the central government that propels a
27:18lot of these states,
27:19particularly Prime Minister Modi, any drop here should be of concern to UP because some of the issues,
27:26including the Gen Z issue that seems to have depressed the numbers...
27:29Jobs is an issue.
27:30Yeah, jobs.
27:31And what is Gen Z fighting for?
27:32Jobs.
27:32Jobs.
27:33Unemployed.
27:33You know, fair examinations.
27:37These are the big issues that they're looking at.
27:39And therefore, I think there will be an impact, not because our polls are showing a dip,
27:43but generally, the mood is shifting and every single party, not just the BJP, has to reckon with.
27:49Can I just ask, Yashwan, that in your poll, Yashwan, when you look at these UP figures,
27:54was there a particular factor that showed where the BJP has become vulnerable suddenly in Uttar Pradesh?
28:00Is there a particular factor, a quick answer?
28:03A quick answer, people would like to listen that it would be Ayodhya, but that's not the fact.
28:07The quick answer would be UGC.
28:09People are talking about Gen Z.
28:12Razdeep, the focus should actually shift to Gen X because it was a Gen X which faced the Mandal Commission
28:21way back in 1989.
28:24And the UGC actually, it's not the kids which are getting alarmed.
28:28It's the Gen X which are the parents of this Gen Z.
28:32You know, the UGC has hit them.
28:35They are reminded of everything that happened in 1989.
28:38They have gone through their phase in their life and they are fearing we handled that part of our life
28:45really in a poor way.
28:46It affected us badly.
28:47And now our kids are going to be impacted by that UGC.
28:51So UGC is hitting their core vote base.
28:54It's the upper caste vote base that is worried that if you set up these committees in colleges which will
29:01allow the SC, STs, OBCs to make complaints against seeming atrocities on the campus that will give a wide ranging
29:11powers to SC, SC students.
29:14That is leading to an upper caste backlash.
29:16That plus presumably Chanda Chori at the moment.
29:19But just two other states that we are looking at.
29:22I think a word on that because don't forget that the central government, in fact the Solicitor General of India
29:27informed the Supreme Court that they have put that on hold and that it is being reconsidered.
29:31So certainly BJP had the feedback that the UGC decision is actually impacting the core vote bank.
29:37The core upper caste vote bank in states like North India.
29:40Just a quick moment and then Siddharth I will give you.
29:42Just two more states so that the BJP gets where else things.
29:47In Punjab for example, another big state going, important state.
29:51I would say big but important state going through the polls.
29:5325% is what the India Alliance is getting and NDA getting 16% of the vote.
29:59Projected seat share in Punjab, India Alliance 11, NDA 1.
30:03This is where Lok Sabha was held.
30:05Remember in a Vidhan Sabha, Punjab will be far more splintered because you are going to have Armourney Party, Congress,
30:12the various Akali factions, BJP potentially all fighting each other.
30:16So keep that caveat in mind.
30:17West Bengal, where clearly the BJP is still benefiting from the honeymoon effect.
30:22Look at the numbers here.
30:24India Alliance 11% and NDA 46% at the moment.
30:29That 11% needs to be checked at the moment.
30:33Projected seat share is 7.
30:35That's a better number.
30:36Seat share, India Alliance is 7 seats.
30:40NDA 35.
30:41So NDA scoring big in West Bengal, a state which in recent times has been dominated by India Alliance.
30:47So the hit that the BJP is taking is UP, the gains they've made in West Bengal on the back
30:52of that big win in May this year.
30:54Yes, Siddharth, you wanted to make a point.
30:56Just to correct myself, that 7% vote share is not, 11% is not a vote share, but go
31:01ahead.
31:02I just wanted to put here for debate a question that is the BJP's rainbow coalition in caste terms of
31:11upper caste and non-Yadav OBCs, is that fracturing?
31:15And did the Bankipur result prove to be, or is it just one isolated incident?
31:23Along with that, if you were to agree with that proposition, Rajiv, that there is some sort of upper caste
31:30resentment and a fracture in that coalition that was assiduously built up before 2014, picked up pace before 2019,
31:37then you have to add economic woes because it is presumably the higher class and their educated youth who are
31:46facing disproportionate burden of unemployment and price rise.
31:50Because Rajiv, what's really happening is, these are, why Raj says that this is a warning signal?
31:56Because there are multiple small storms that are taking place and political events in various states.
32:02So where Bankipur is concerned, in Bihar, you have somebody like a Prashant Kishor who is surging in.
32:08Then you have the unrest over unemployment jobs which has been sparked by no one else but the CJP.
32:14That's something which is caught on. It's not just happening in Delhi alone.
32:17It's all across pan-India.
32:19Now, if you look at the bigger picture, even in Bankipur, in case a Prashant Kishor comes in, is he
32:25damaging the BJP or is he damaging the India alliance?
32:29You know, that's the bigger question.
32:31No, so overall in the bigger picture, is it an advantage BJP or is it a disadvantage?
32:36No, I would think it's a disadvantage BJP.
32:38However, but in Uttar Pradesh, any disadvantage, you know, any numbers going down for the BJP impacts the bigger picture
32:44of the 272 that the BJP hopes to achieve in 2029.
32:49And that is why the elections in the next six months, extremely crucial for the BJP.
32:54Ghanav makes a very good point, which is that if you looked at the drop that the BJP had in
32:58these numbers, the India alliance is not picking up all that.
33:03Yeah, sure.
33:03Someone else is picking that up.
33:04No, I'll give you an example.
33:05And therefore, I think that is a trend that we need to watch.
33:08I'll give you an example.
33:10In Maharashtra, for example, where we also have a projected vote share, India alliance at 43%, NDA 49%.
33:17India alliance gets 17 seats, NDA 31%.
33:21So in the big states, barring Uttar Pradesh, you see, that's why the BJP still remains well ahead of the
33:26India alliance.
33:27Barring Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh.
33:30Tamil Nadu, which has always remained with the India alliance and a strong performance of the India alliance in West
33:36Bengal, of the NDA now in West Bengal, that covers up some of the deficiencies that they are having in
33:42other states of the country.
33:43But I think the state numbers, really, beyond the point in a national poll, do not need to be taken
33:50as definitive.
33:51Let's come to a definitive number.
33:53Performance of Prime Minister Modi as Prime Minister.
34:09Now, more or less, that's 6% down compared to January of 2026.
34:17But when you add 51 and 17, it isn't as if he slid as badly as he did post-COVID
34:24in 2020.
34:25What is the NDA government's biggest achievement?
34:28Political stability, 13%.
34:30Ram Temple still around, 11%.
34:32Infrastructure, 11%.
34:33India government's biggest failure, price rise, 23%.
34:37Unemployment, 16%.
34:39Economic growth, 14%.
34:42Sanjeev Verma, let me get you in very quickly on the issue of the numbers as you are seeing them.
34:51Would you agree that your only warning sign as of now is Uttar Pradesh?
34:56You know, Rajdeep, I believe, as you rightly said, you know, on this show, that momentum is very important in
35:03politics.
35:03I think after winning Maharashtra Assembly elections for the third time in a row with a strike rate of 91%.
35:09After winning Delhi after a gap of 27 years with a strike rate of 69%.
35:16After winning Assam, 82 out of 126 seats with a strike rate of 65%.
35:22After stand-alone, winning 89 seats in Bihar with a strike rate of 89.7%.
35:29And after winning 207 out of 294 seats in Bengal with a strike rate of 71%.
35:36What does the arithmetic tell you?
35:40Momentum is with BJP.
35:41Point number one.
35:42Very quickly, point number two.
35:44Beat Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi, Puducherry, what have you.
35:47Even states where BJP did not win.
35:50It is the woman voter that has made her voice sound.
35:54But Sanju, there's an issue with that.
35:55I'll tell you why.
35:56Because it's not just UP alone, which is, you know, a red flag for you right now.
36:01Just allow me to bring in Yashwan Deshmukh for just a moment.
36:03Because Yashwan, if you look at the number of states, and yes, Rajdeep is completely right where he said that
36:09we really can't get into micro data right now.
36:11But Rajdeep, if you look at it, other than Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, there is a decline in every other
36:17state for the BJP.
36:18Other than just these two states.
36:21Just a minute, Sanju.
36:22Let me just bring in Yashwan, and he can explain that better.
36:25Over to you, Yashwan.
36:27Thank you, Priti.
36:28And actually, in my opening statement, I said there is Bengal and the rest of India.
36:32Yes, there is a problem for the BJP in vote and seat in everywhere, barring Bengal.
36:37And even in Bengal, if you can just play the graphic, there could be a bit confusion for our audience
36:43in there.
36:44You know, the India Alliance vote of 11% is basically the Congress and the left that is written over
36:50there.
36:51While the seat share is taken of Mamta Benerji faction.
36:54Now, the vote share of actually Mamta Benerji, not the rebel faction.
36:59We are talking very clearly about the TMC, it is roughly about 31% and 7 seats.
37:05There is literally, literally less than 3% support for so-called rebel faction in West Bengal.
37:12So, whenever you talk about, forget about your symbol, forget about who is controlling the party.
37:19For Bengal voters, if there is a TMC, it means Mamta Benerji, not the rebel faction.
37:24Let's be very clear about that.
37:26Having said that, it is also correct that even that Mamta Benerji-led TMC, even that Mamta Benerji-led TMC
37:34is hardly holding up 31% at this point of time.
37:37And it is a complete sweep for the BJP in West Bengal.
37:41It could go even further than whatever we have projected.
37:44So, that part is aside.
37:46Similarly, in Punjab, when we are talking about Radheep over there, the India Alliance includes the seats won by the
37:52Aam Admi Party and the Congress together while they will be contesting against each other.
37:56So, that's another way of looking at it.
37:59But for the BJP, the bigger question is outside West Bengal, there is drainage of vote and seats, no matter
38:07how small it is, across the spectrum.
38:10And they need to be worried about it.
38:11But not Maharashtra, Yashwan, not Maharashtra.
38:14Not Maharashtra, because of the simple reason.
38:16So, West Bengal, Maharashtra, everywhere else, Rajdeep, the BJP.
38:20You know, first of all, Yashwan, that is very misleading for our viewers to put it at 11% because
38:27technically the TMC is part of the India Alliance.
38:29That's why the confusion came, it should have remained at 42% but that apart.
38:34I want to know, you're telling me, just a minute, Sanju, you're telling me across the Hindi heartland and that's
38:40really what we should be looking at.
38:42Across the Hindi heartland is where the BJP is taking a bit of a hit.
38:47Correct me if I'm wrong.
38:48That's the states where they are in power, that's where there's an element of anti-incumbency.
38:53In the western part of the country, Maharashtra, Gujarat, BJP is holding its own.
38:57They've made massive gains in the eastern corner of the country, especially in West Bengal.
39:01The real change that's taking place, please correct me if I'm wrong, Yashwan, is in the Hindi heartland.
39:07Am I right or wrong?
39:08You are right.
39:09You are bang on correct over there and that's where the problem is the warning shots.
39:15The only good thing about the BJP, which I hope Sanju Verma will appreciate that I'm pointing this out rather
39:22than getting angry at us,
39:23is that the gap between the states where it is a bipolar fight between the Congress and the BJP.
39:30The gap is so huge, Rajdeep, that even a 5% swing against the BJP, the gap is from 20
39:37-25% vote share gap to 20-15% vote share gap.
39:41So, that impact...
39:42That's why the Congress is not gaining the seats at the expense of the BJP, the BJP may be down,
39:49but it's not gaining in terms of seats.
39:51Now, Sanju Verma, complete your point.
39:53Now, you should smile.
39:54You see, your graph is slowly going down, but you are so well ahead of your competitor earlier that you
40:01are still willing seats.
40:02So, you should smile.
40:05Okay, you know, I just want to tell you, Ashwant, where did I get angry?
40:08I mean, if you can disagree with me, I can disagree with you.
40:11When you disagree, it is freedom of speech.
40:13If I disagree, even with a smile, you say Sanju Verma is getting angry.
40:17I have the right to disagree.
40:18Now, let me come to the point.
40:19You know, I don't understand this double speak with no offense to none.
40:23Now, let me come to the limited point.
40:25The limited point is this.
40:26I keep hearing this.
40:28Gen Z, Gen Alpha, Gen X, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
40:31Let's get one thing very clear.
40:33And at the expense of sounding cliched, let me repeat.
40:3722 lakh voters in Maharashtra or Sinbi election 2024 were either first-timers or Gen Z voters voted for BJP.
40:459 lakh Gen Z or first-timer voters in Haryana voted for BJP.
40:496.7 lakh Gen Z or first-timer voters in Haryana voted for BJP.
40:53What's your source for this?
40:55What's your source for this?
40:57Wait, don't keep interrupting me and...
40:59No, no, I need to know the source.
41:00You can't throw numbers without a source.
41:02I don't interrupt you.
41:06Please hold your horses.
41:08Now, 10.3 lakh.
41:10First-time voters or Gen Z voters in Bihar voted for BJP.
41:14Asang, 8.42 lakh.
41:16Either Gen Z or first-time voters voted for BJP.
41:2023.69 lakh voters in Haryana voted for BJP.
41:23Madam, madam, you cannot throw...
41:24No, no, madam.
41:25Either you give me the source.
41:27You give me the source of your numbers.
41:29Please give me the source.
41:31The source of the numbers is based on what the election commission has extrapolated over the years.
41:39And that data is available on the ECI website.
41:42There could only be an minus or plus 2%.
41:46Please understand that.
41:48I'm not voting data on my heart.
41:51Go and check the ECI website.
41:52I take your larger point.
41:54I take your larger point.
41:56Madam, I take your larger point.
41:59I have shown that Gen Z voters have voted for the BJP.
42:02You wouldn't win election without the Gen Z point taken.
42:06But much changes.
42:08But politics is never...
42:09Madam, politics is never static.
42:11As we are seeing...
42:12You see, you are looking at numbers from a point of view of 2024.
42:15We are now in August 2026.
42:17But Rajesh Kalappa, the point which Yashwan made is important.
42:21There is anti-incumbency creeping in in several BJP-ruled states.
42:25But you are not benefiting necessarily, A, because the gap is wide.
42:29B, because people may be looking at other options.
42:31Gaurav Savan mentioned, for example, Jastav Prashant Kishore in Bakipur.
42:35It's not as if the RJD won Bakipur.
42:37So isn't that something that should worry the Congress?
42:40That even when there is anti-incumbency, in direct BJP Congress fights, the gap is very high.
42:49See, Razeeb, in my view, the BJP has entered the domain of what they call the law of marginal disappearing
43:00or diminishing utility.
43:02Now, the point is this, that as far as the BJP is concerned, and I would like to, you know,
43:08think for a moment about the position that UPA was in 2011.
43:12And I remember the mood of the nation poll of 2011.
43:17And at that time, even after the ANNA agitation and so on and so forth, the mood of the nation
43:23poll said that the UPA was still holding on.
43:27How many seats did we get in 2014?
43:29We got 44 seats.
43:31Now, point is that the BJP has entered a domain where it is diminishing and diminishing at a very precarious
43:39pace.
43:40Now, consider this, that there is a website which is created and that is regarding the Kaukrat Janata Party.
43:49How many people flock to it?
43:52Over a million people.
43:59No, no, one minute.
44:01Now, one minute.
44:04One minute, Razeeb.
44:05I understand, I understand, I understand what you're saying.
44:07I understand what you're saying.
44:08See, point is, the BJP spent over 100 crore in trying to malign the image of Mr. Rahul Gandhi.
44:16Now, look at the crowds which are flocking to see Mr. Rahul Gandhi.
44:19Not just at Allahabad, at a Pune.
44:23Now, this is the real test.
44:25All the money that the BJP has spent on its various social media campaigns to destroy the image of Rahul
44:33Gandhi.
44:33And what ultimately the people are saying.
44:36Okay, so let me ask you a second.
44:39You know, Pramod Mahajan had said crowds do not mean votes.
44:44No, no, one minute.
44:45Let's look at numbers.
44:47We have limited time.
44:49You know, you're saying that they'll try.
44:50I'd be very happy.
44:50Just a minute, Mr. Kalapag.
44:52Mr. Kalapag, you know, the question is whether the Congress is benefiting from this anti-incumbency that may be setting
44:59in some states.
45:00In some states, I repeat, best suited to be next PM.
45:04Narendra Modi, 49%.
45:06Rahul Gandhi, 27%.
45:09Since you mentioned Rahul Gandhi, sir.
45:11Joseph Vijay has come in as the new entrant.
45:15I don't think in India today, mood of the nation had even factored him till the other day at 9%.
45:20Now, majority or large number may be from Tamil Nadu.
45:23Abhijit Deepke.
45:24Abhijit Deepke.
45:26Kaukrut Jandha Party, 1.3%.
45:28Above Erwin Sundar.
45:29At Arvin Kejriwal, 1.2%.
45:31Now, this is, of course, a direct question.
45:33Best suited to be next PM.
45:35Rahul Gandhi's performance as LOP.
45:38Outstanding was 24%.
45:40Jan, 2026.
45:41August, 2026.
45:42Remains almost the same.
45:4323.
45:44Good then was 20.
45:46Now, they say 25%.
45:47At the 2, there is a markup but not significant.
45:50About 4% in all.
45:52Average, 18%.
45:53Then, 18%.
45:54Now, poor 17.
45:56Very poor.
45:57Sorry.
45:58Poor 14.
45:59Very poor 13.
46:01Best suited to lead India block.
46:03Rahul Gandhi is at 29%.
46:06See, Joseph Vijay is coming at 12%.
46:10This is first day, first show, big hit.
46:13Mamata Banerjee is at 9%.
46:15Best suited to lead Congress.
46:18Rahul Gandhi, 41%.
46:20Priyanka Gandhi, 7%.
46:22Now, is this the coming again of Rahul Gandhi?
46:25No, no, no.
46:26I mean, is he where he is, Raghseed?
46:29Basically, before is it coming of age of Rahul Gandhi once again.
46:33Yes.
46:34Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains on top of the pack after 12 years of being Prime Minister.
46:40And there is no one anywhere close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
46:44You know, Prime Minister, if I may, is at 48.7 and Rahul Gandhi 21 points behind him.
46:51Then, let's, you know, just a point of clarification, that it is correct that the Prime Minister is very high
46:56at 48.7.
46:57Though, when you compare to the earlier poll in February, he drops away about 5 to 6%.
47:03Let's say Donald Trump would be very happy with these numbers because he's in the low 25s, 30s.
47:08So, 48% is very good.
47:09But if we take a look at Prime Minister Modi's track record, he normally goes right up to 50, 60,
47:1470%.
47:15So, this time, he needs to be concerned that it is dropping a little below.
47:19So, his highest approval rate was around 70% at one stage.
47:23Yes, it was at one stage.
47:24In your mood of the nation, it's down today to 51%.
47:26But as Gaurav says, if you ask a direct question, 49% say Modi, 27% say Rahul Gandhi.
47:32No, that's the point that you have to look at.
47:34That, as Prime Minister's popularity or whatever it is drops a bit by 6%.
47:38That 6% doesn't go to Rahul Gandhi.
47:41Instead, it goes to all the other leaders that's there.
47:43The second point I think you need to look at, and that is what I think is changing a lot
47:47of the polls,
47:48is what you mentioned earlier about the biggest achievements of the NDA government.
47:52I think we haven't discussed that.
47:54We haven't discussed that.
47:54But if you look, political stability is one that you mentioned.
47:57Ram Temple is the other.
47:58Infrastructure development is the third.
48:00What is happening now, because of the Gen Z agitation,
48:04is that the first big thing that the NDA government provided us was political stability.
48:09That is beginning to show cracks, because status quo is no more being accepted.
48:14But those numbers are not out yet.
48:15We're going to know.
48:16I think you hear him answer.
48:17Yeah, I did.
48:17You did.
48:18Biggest achievement is at 13%.
48:19Yes, go ahead.
48:20So, therefore, if you look at that, political stability as an ace in them begins to have a little crack,
48:26because Gen Z is asking for enough of status quo, let's go for change.
48:30We're going to look at the Gen Z numbers in a moment.
48:32Just take a look at Ram Temple, okay?
48:34Again, a great achievement.
48:36Didn't bring them the numbers.
48:37But this time, if you look at what is coming up,
48:40is that people say that the Chandachori thing has impacted the Modi government's and Yogi government's image,
48:48which could have an implication that's there.
48:49And finally, this point of infrastructure development, okay?
48:53No doubt that Prime Minister Modi, and particularly under Gatkari and others,
48:58there's been phenomenal amount of growth of roads under Mr. Vaishnav, railways, and others.
49:04But the Gen Z is saying, that's great, but are you giving me jobs?
49:08And secondly, what was seen as very important in terms of roads and everything else is now seen, look...
49:14No, no, so all that is taken.
49:17Why is this not necessarily benefiting?
49:20You see, Rahul Gandhi's performance, Congress is getting about 21% of the vote.
49:24Others are about 10 to 12%.
49:27Large amounts of Congress voters are choosing Rahul Gandhi.
49:30He's not getting additional incremental voters.
49:33The BJP voters, those who switched to the BJP over the last 12 years,
49:38are not looking at Rahul Gandhi as an alternative.
49:41So, if Rahul Gandhi has warning signals, there are warning signals there for the Congress and Rahul as well.
49:46There is a cautionary tale which is built in right here.
49:47Quickly, yeah, we've got two minutes only.
49:49One by one.
49:50There is electoral dominance of the BJP, that's given.
49:54Yes.
49:54But now people are questioning whether electoral dominance is also linked to public trust.
50:00And at the same time, when public trust is there, does it have to do as much with governance?
50:06Or is the public trust also demanding...
50:08Why is Rahul Gandhi not getting the benefit of these weaknesses in the BJP?
50:12That's the question that is there.
50:14Let's pull out the numbers of best suited to be the next Prime Minister.
50:18And this is the cautionary tale which has been built in.
50:21C. Joseph Vijay, 9%.
50:22Abhiji Dipke, 1.3%.
50:24Over 10% of the people here, Rajdeep.
50:27And who defines this gentry?
50:29It is the Gen Z.
50:30If you remember, C. Joseph Vijay was the spark which led to the entire...
50:34How much did we debate about the Gen Z propelling C. Joseph Vijay to be the Chief Minister?
50:39And this is the lot which doesn't seemingly have as much faith in Rahul Gandhi as somebody new...
50:45So the challenge for Rahul Gandhi, correct me if I'm wrong, the challenge for Rahul Gandhi is to start getting
50:52the entire cohort of those who are disgruntled or frustrated or anxious about their future...
50:59Rahul Gandhi has a role to Rahul Gandhi.
51:04I think it is clear here, Rajdeep.
51:05We can't agree with the BJP.
51:07It doesn't mean that I'm moving to switch it.
51:09What by one of the viewers won't know what you're saying.
51:10Raj, just asking you a quick question.
51:12Break the data down of C. Joseph Vijay because I was looking at the micro detailing of your data.
51:16It really, the popularity doesn't really come from Tamil Nadu.
51:19It comes from the Northeast.
51:20So there is a section, Rajdeep, that is looking at new alternatives.
51:26You see, again, C. Joseph Vijay is not a contender in the Northeast.
51:29But the point I'm making...
51:30But he's popular.
51:31No, the bigger point is...
51:32The point is, if you have to win an election, you have to start getting a large chunk of the
51:37anti-BJP vote gravitating to 149 individuals.
51:39And is he a 24-7 political leader if Rahul Gandhi is not a 24-7 political leader?
51:45So, one more...
51:45Just one point.
51:46Where do we get the votes from?
51:47So even in the voters...
51:49Yes, just a minute.
51:50Firstly, Vijay replaces in some senses Kejriwal.
51:53Because earlier, Kejriwal is not that 8% said.
51:55So that has moved over there.
51:57Now, as you rightly said, they have to attract...
52:00Rahul Gandhi has to attract all those who are fleeing the BJP if they are fleeing that.
52:05I think Maria makes a very good point.
52:07The BJP is highly resilient.
52:09It hasn't collapsed in a way.
52:11Don't ever imagine that through these polls.
52:13It has just dipped a bit.
52:14It's still very strong where it is.
52:16So, Rahul Gandhi has to eat into the BJP wards.
52:20He has also to capture the imagination of the young, which right now, the alternatives seem a little more...