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The latest India Today C-Voter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll projects the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to secure 326 seats with a 45 percent vote share if Lok Sabha general elections were held today.
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00:26Hello and welcome once again to the
00:29India today biannual mood of the nation that's right the poll that's been going on for more than two decades
00:36brought to you by C voter and it is coming at a time when the country's politics is going through
00:43some kind of turbulence it's been a turbulent year particularly since when we did the last mood of the nation
00:50in January you've had conflicts agitations and plenty more what is then the mood of the nation the India today
00:59C voter poll is here with the most definitive mood tracker of what's the mood and what would happen if
01:07elections were held today.
01:09With me are all my colleagues starting from the extreme left Siddharth Zarabi editor of business today joined by Raj
01:19Chengappa editorial director India today also Preeti Chaudhary, Maria Shaquille, Gaurav Savant all with you and Yashwan Deshmukh who remember
01:30is the one who's put this poll together for C voter.
01:34Also joining me is the congress' Brijesh Kalappa we also hope to be joined by our BJP guest shortly.
01:41Okay now remember one of the things that the mood of the nation does is what happens if elections are
01:47held today.
01:48That's if general elections are held in August of 2026 what would happen.
01:57Projected vote share but before that I want Yashwan to tell us when he's done the poll and what was
02:03the sample size.
02:04Yashwan you want to go and kick start by just giving us exactly when this poll was done and what's
02:10the sample size.
02:12Absolutely Rajdeep and very quickly on to that because now the viewers and audiences have known our tracker for more
02:18than 25 years as you just mentioned that there are two different parts of the poll that one is the
02:23new questions which Raj and the India Today editorial team fixes up every time before every edition of the moon
02:28operation which are very much relevant for the issues that are hitting the ground today and that is the tracking
02:34part which does the routine questions every day day after day after day.
02:38And so every six months we compile that as well so for the new questions we have done almost 25
02:44,000 plus samples in the last four weeks to be precise and a big chunk of them we have done
02:51actually in the last two weeks because that is where the crisis was hitting up.
02:56So a lot of many new questions were drawn at that point of time to understand the change on the
03:01ground and on the tracking part there is almost like 90,000 samples that we have done in the last
03:07six months to track the things on the ground.
03:10So these two significantly large sample sizes out there and we have analyzed both of the sets to understand the
03:18current fraction on the ground and also the long-term trend points on the series.
03:23Okay so more than one lakh respondents spread across the states of the country relatively representative but of course with
03:30all the caveats that polls are injurious to health please keep that in mind particularly in a country like India.
03:38Okay projected vote share if elections were held today as per the sea voter poll for India today boot of
03:46the nation NDA would end up with 45 percent that's minus two but when you look at minus two remember
03:53this is of course in comparison to where we have stood over recent polls.
03:59So that's 45 percent to the NDA that's what they got 47 percent in January of 2026 down to India
04:07Alliance 39 percent others 16 percent so it's a 2 percent swing as of now projected seat share NDA if
04:20elections were held today would get 326.
04:23Now that remember also includes the fact that the NDA has been boosted by recent parties breaking up and joining
04:31it.
04:31Now this is in contrast to 352 which the NDA was getting six months ago so they are down 26.
04:39India Alliance is only marginally up 185 up 3.
04:4432 are others so the largest chunk are coming to these parties up 23.
04:51Projected vote share party wise BJP 39 percent down 2 percent compared to January 2026 Congress 21 percent up 1
05:03others 40 percent minus 1 and take a look at seat share that's where the BJP is getting a significant
05:10drop of 26 seats compared to January 261 below the halfway mark down 26.
05:17But the Congress is going to 106 that's up 26 again compared to 2026 January but still well short of
05:28the majority while the BJP is very close to the halfway mark.
05:32So the gap between the BJP and Congress remains significant.
05:37Others are as much as 176 at the moment.
05:42So that's the first big takeaway if elections were held today you would still have an NDA government.
05:49The Congress may have made small gains compared to six months ago but clearly nowhere close to the BJP.
05:57Let's get in first reactions.
05:58Raj Chendapa your cover apparently which I just saw is saying warning signals.
06:04But when I look at these numbers the fact is 261 versus 106 326 NDA versus India Alliance 185 the
06:13gap is still significant.
06:15You know Rajdeep this poll has come at a very important point because we've had this Gen Z rage and
06:21uprising and everybody is curious to know what would be the impact.
06:24For the NDA and the BJP I think the comforting news is that the drop is not you know getting
06:33them to rush to panic buttons.
06:35They have certainly dropped and as you mentioned dropped 26 seats by the BJP which puts them into this uncomfortable
06:41position of having to depend on the NDA.
06:44That's theoretically speaking.
06:45And overall the NDA gets 326 still well within their comfort zones.
06:50But I think the big message and that's why we're saying the warning signals is that there are various other
06:56questions that are there whether you're looking at the economics.
06:59We will come to those.
07:00Sure.
07:00We will come to those.
07:01These are opening remarks.
07:02At the moment you're saying that.
07:04While there's no panic buttons there's plenty to worry about and that's why we're going with warning signals that they
07:10need to course correct on various fronts.
07:12Maria Preeti dive in warning signals or do you believe that there is a comfort factor.
07:17With the BJP you track the BJP if they look at these numbers will they be comforted.
07:22Not really because Rajdeep let's not forget that this is coming after 4th of May and 4th of May and
07:29weeks after that and two weeks before that was almost total electoral dominance of the BJP.
07:36BJP likes that kind of comfort when they have enough and more cushion around them.
07:41When they were entering the monsoon session of parliament it was almost certain that they will ensure the passage of
07:46the delimitation bill.
07:47With the number of this nature of course the BJP will say that their dominance remains but because this is
07:54a party which believes in course correction they believe that if there are certain warning signals they should read those
08:01signals.
08:01And that is the reason why you are seeing the entire shift also in terms of messaging that is coming
08:08in from the party.
08:09Rajdeep two things if you look at it right now.
08:11So of course we are looking at these numbers from what our last mood of the nation numbers were which
08:17was in January.
08:18And at that point of time BJP alone was comfortably above the halfway mark.
08:22So here it's not above the halfway mark and we'll have to like Rajstad depend theoretically on its allies.
08:28But two things have happened.
08:29Since January when our last mood of the nation took place to now there have been two elections which have
08:35taken place where one the BJP has won handsomely in West Bengal.
08:38And the other where you've had you know what sparked the entire Gen Z movement I would think was the
08:43state of Tamil Nadu with Vijay coming in.
08:46And then subsequently you've had this massive you know youth upsurge in various protests not just the one which happened
08:54at Jantar Mantar.
08:55I'd like to know through the course of what we're going to go ahead over the course of two hours
08:59Rajdeep.
09:00Which one weighs more? Where has the BJP gained? Where has it lost?
09:03Are the numbers that you know is keeping it seemingly comfortable coming from states like West Bengal?
09:09It has the Gen Z is the one which is pulling it down.
09:12I want you know deep dive in that.
09:13Gaurav your first remarks.
09:1512 years in power.
09:17After 10 years the Congress had come down to 44.
09:21The BJP is at 261 just 11 short of forming the government on its own.
09:27With its NDA allies the BJP or the NDA comfortably forming the government despite massive global headwinds that the government
09:35is facing on multiple fronts.
09:38You know the economy is facing headwinds.
09:41There's war that's happening between Iran and the United States of America.
09:45And despite all these headwinds the government according to these numbers is at 200 the BJP at 261 and the
09:52NDA at 326.
09:54Now this is actually writing on the wall Rajdeep that the opposition and Gen Z whatever they may have sought
10:04to do did they actually succeed or has the government still been able to hold forth.
10:10Okay there's a distinction of course we must draw between possibly Siddharth Zarabi the government's ability to win elections and
10:17electability and the issues.
10:19That's why the cover is warning signals we'll deep dive into that in a moment but your first reactions because
10:24across the world you expect after a certain stage a government in power for more than a decade.
10:30Gaurav is right there registering some decline by and large the BJP's lowest numbers if I look at it MOTN
10:36over the last few years was actually soon after 2024 Lok Sabha where they came down to 244.
10:43Since then they peaked at 287 in January of 2024 they've come down again and here too they're being saved
10:50by the fact that they're doing well in states like West Bengal which they were not doing well six months
10:55ago.
10:55Rajdeep you spoke about West Bengal and I want to connect that with a very significant point that Preeti alluded
11:01to.
11:02Between then and now let's take a look at the increase in the number of MLA seats that the BJP
11:08has got.
11:09Roughly 44% of all MLA assembly constituencies in India are now BJP ruled and there has been a substantial
11:17accretion to that on account of West Bengal alone.
11:22Has the popular imagery and some issues dented the image of course but add to the MLA seats increase in
11:31the same period that we are seeing an over on decline at the parliamentary level as per these projections.
11:37You also have to take into account and ask yourself the question has the BJP organizational machinery been dented during
11:44this time Rajdeep.
11:45The answer is no has the BJP and its Panna Pramukh strategy of going to the last boot to the
11:51last person been weakened in any manner.
11:53No and as a consequence of recent developments have we seen in the organizational revamp of the BJP machinery closer
12:03coordination between RSS and the BJP the answer again is yes.
12:08So I would say that in the real world some of these projections would be tested in the other direction.
12:13Just a quick point that I wanted to make while Siddharth mentions the fact that the BJP has won so
12:20many states and I think it's 22 out of 28 after West Bengal.
12:24The fact is they were coming in from a peak and suddenly if our results begin to show they should
12:31have then reflected that they were getting much higher than what they got in the last polls because the sheer
12:37fact that they'd won West Bengal,
12:39they'd won Delhi earlier, Maharashtra, all these things after 2024 yet those numbers are not adding up when it comes
12:47to the final Lok Sabha tally and that I think is the cause for worry because certainly this one month
12:52period or two month period that May and June when they should have been on top suddenly they seem to
12:59have dropped.
12:59And that is why I am saying there are serious issues that they need to look at.
13:03Let me go to Sanju Verma and Rajesh Kalappa who are also joining us, one of the BJP, one of
13:07the Congress.
13:08Sanju Verma, when I look at these numbers, it's only for the third time in the last 24 months the
13:15BJP is slipping below 272.
13:17Now I know that you will probably see 261 as just short of a majority and with your allies you
13:23are well over 300.
13:24Should you worry when you start dropping 26 seats compared to our last poll because the one danger is that
13:32once you lose momentum you can decline further.
13:37Do you worry about these numbers or are you comforted by the fact that the opposition is still well behind?
13:44You know Rajdeep, I think the biggest advantage for the Modi government and the BJP in particular is the fact
13:51that BJP due to its organizational strength is able to convert vote share into winnable seats.
13:59You know, for instance, the MOTN poll says the NDA will have a vote share of 45% and BJP
14:07standalone 39%.
14:09Now if you're giving the BJP a standalone of 39% and I take into account the trajectory of the
14:17last 11 elections that have happened in states and union territories post-2024 low-sub-elections,
14:24then using a simple unitary method of calculation, that 39% vote share should translate into actually 289 seats.
14:35So the arithmetic there is certainly not right if I have to extrapolate the average of the last MOTN polls
14:44and juxtapose that against 39%, BJP should be getting 289, not 261.
14:52Point number one, pure arithmetic based on MOTN data.
14:56The second point I want to make is this.
14:58You look at Uttar Pradesh where our closest competitor in 2022 was Samajwadi Party.
15:03The vote share difference was barely 9% to 10%.
15:06But the BJP scored 255 and Akhile Shadav's party was limited to 111 despite a 10% surge in vote
15:14share.
15:15Again, bringing us back to the same point that Samajwadi Party was not able to translate a rise in vote
15:21share into winnable seats.
15:22Then let's talk about Lok Sama 2024 very quickly.
15:25Out of the 64 crore-odd votes that were cast, 23.59 crore votes were cast in favour of the
15:35BJP.
15:36Now, if we have to maintain in absolute terms 23.59 crore voters who will continue to vote for BJP,
15:45even if you use that method of calculation, BJP should be getting at least 293 to 294 seats.
15:52As I said, ma'am, you're giving the arithmetic point.
15:57There is arithmetic in election, there's chemistry.
15:59When you look at the arithmetic point, you can make an argument.
16:02No, no, ma'am, there is limited time.
16:04You've made your point.
16:06I gave you uninterrupted time.
16:07You claim that arithmetically, the BJP, you believe, based on a 39% vote share,
16:12should still be above the halfway mark of 272.
16:15I'll get Yashwad in a moment to counter that.
16:17But, Rajesh Kalappa, the fact is, and this is really what the opposition should have a warning signal,
16:23that at a time when there are agitations, there have been global headwinds because of the conflict in West Asia,
16:29the Gen Z agitation, the truth of the matter is,
16:32this is not necessarily translating into a higher vote share or seats.
16:36The Congress, if you look at over the last decade, has remained in the 18 to 24% range in
16:41our MOTNs.
16:42You are not crossing that important psychological mark of 25% plus to start winning more and more seats and
16:50closing the gap.
16:55Rajdeep, the first thing is that as far as my understanding goes,
17:00I think these polls were conducted before the 4th of May, right?
17:05And if there is one motionless moment in the entire...
17:09No, no, no, these polls are conducted, sir, in the last four weeks.
17:12And majority in the last two weeks.
17:15Okay, okay.
17:16So I stand corrected.
17:18See, there are three issues which are foremost in people's minds.
17:22And the first was E20, that is ethanol 20.
17:26This has had a huge impact on Modi government.
17:30The second issue is the Ram Temple loot.
17:32And then you have also had a case which, you know, was reported yesterday, where councillors of Shahjanabad, they all
17:41gathered together and over Gangajal, they promised to each other that they are going to share the loot.
17:47And this is very similar to what is happening in Ram Janambhumi loot, where almost 25,000...
17:53Sir, you are not answering my question, sir.
17:56My question is, despite the Ram Chanda jori, how is this not translating into higher numbers?
18:03That's all I'm asking.
18:05Sanjuji, this is not a debate.
18:07So I'll let you come later.
18:09No, see, Rajdeep, I...
18:12No, no, one minute.
18:13No, what I would like to say is that a similar poll gave a much higher number in 2024.
18:21In 2024, what happened then?
18:23I think your polls itself indicated that 336 would be how much the BJP would get in 2024, May.
18:30So how much did they eventually get?
18:32So I think there is always a margin of error.
18:35And, you know, when a party is declining, and that decline is clearly visible to all of us, not just
18:42on social media, on otherwise.
18:45We are able to witness that there has been a massive transformation in the way people perceive the government.
18:52And particularly those in the age group of 18 and 35.
18:56And this is going to have a massive impact on the...
19:00But Mr. Kharappa, all of that is already factored in.
19:03Ram Gandhir is factored in, the Gen Z protest is factored in.
19:07All of that is factored into this poll.
19:13No, that's exactly what I was trying to say, Preeti.
19:16That in 2024, your poll, which was predicting what the BJP was going to get, and BJP claimed 400 par.
19:25Your poll claimed that they would get something like 336.
19:30It would get 304.
19:31We are predicting 304 for the BJP.
19:34Sir, I take your point that polls can go wrong.
19:38Let Yashwat Deshmukh respond.
19:40You see, Yashwat Deshmukh, this is the argument over the numbers.
19:43Sanyu Verma makes a persuasive argument based on vote share.
19:46She believes, look at the vote share of the BJP, relatively steady.
19:49Why should the seats drop so much?
19:51A. On the other hand, the Congress could argue that you actually gave 304 seats to the BJP in MOT
19:58in February 2024.
20:00Guess what they got?
20:02So, there is a stark difference sometimes between the numbers you throw up in MOTN and what happens on the
20:08ground.
20:08Which is why I said polls are injurious to health.
20:10But you want to respond to the politicians.
20:13Of course.
20:14I mean, first thing first, we never said 400 par.
20:17India today, she would have never said 400 par.
20:19No, not 400 par.
20:19You said 304.
20:20So, and that happened four months prior to the poll.
20:24So, there is a gap between four months, between our last MOTN, between another actual polling that happened in 2024.
20:32Having said that, what I wanted to say is that stats are notoriously known for hiding more than what they
20:40revealed actually, Razdeep.
20:42I would like you to just focus on one thing.
20:45Treat Bengal as a basket case, as a separate case and rest of India as a separate case.
20:50And if you remove the gains of BJP in West Brangal in this poll, then BJP's actual number would go
20:58below what they got in 2024.
21:02So, when Raj Chengappa puts up a headline of warning signal, warning shot on the cover, I believe that those
21:09who understand the numbers within the BJP would take notice of that.
21:13They would understand precisely what Raj Chengappa is hinting at.
21:17They would go through the numbers and understand that one state's gain, which is pretty much their gain.
21:23I give it to them.
21:24They won Bengal, hands down and at the end of the day, all you need is 272 and every state
21:30counts in that.
21:31But when you are gaining out of a sheer anti-incumbency in one state, but you have a gradual and
21:39significant loss due to multitudes of results across all other states, then there is a warning signal that needs to
21:47be read.
21:47As per my experience, Razdeep, this arguably is the biggest crisis time that the BJP is facing in the last
21:5612 years of being in power.
21:57However, this probably is even worse than wave two of COVID and the crisis that aftermath because in the public
22:05opinion, the COVID happened at something as a pandemic, which was out of scope for everybody to handle.
22:12But here we are starting with the UGC, Ram Mandir, class 12th issue, the need at ethanol, the sheer scope
22:22of the crisis one after the other.
22:24However, this government has been going through in the last three months plan is made certainly makes the most challenging
22:30period in the last five years that you're making a big statement there that this is the most challenging period
22:37that the BJP is facing in the last 12 years.
22:40And let's break that down, because one of the real headline points is coming at the moment.
22:46When we look at states, and remember, this is a poll which has been done across the country.
22:51So you could argue that it doesn't have the same sample size per state.
22:55But there is a major state that's going to the polls in five months from now.
22:59And that is Uttar Pradesh, which often decides the scope of Indian elections as per the sea voter, mood of
23:07the nation poll done for India today in Uttar Pradesh.
23:10The numbers are very, very interesting.
23:13India Alliance is projected to get 40 percent vote share.
23:19NDA is projected to get 42 percent of vote share.
23:24Now, this is the NDA as a result is down 5 percent compared to January 2026 and the India Alliance
23:34down 2 percent.
23:35But seed share as per Yashwat Deshmukh's sea voter poll, I put that caveat all the time.
23:42India Alliance is projected to get 41 out of the 80 seats.
23:46NDA 38.
23:47Now, in the last poll we did, NDA was 48 and the India Alliance was 31.
23:55So you've got a significant shift.
23:57The biggest shift that's taken place across the states as of now, West Bengal, which we'll come to in a
24:04moment, heavily in favor of NDA.
24:06But Uttar Pradesh moving away and going towards the India Alliance.
24:11And if these numbers hold, that changes the political map of the country.
24:16I mean, Maria, you want to look at that because this is the number that will concern the BJP more
24:21than anything else because it is Uttar Pradesh.
24:23Yes, and Rajdi, while we focus on the entire discussion which is happening largely around Chandachori and the city of
24:31Ayodhya,
24:31I think the bigger concern for the BJP right now is the debate around UGC and the reservation debate which
24:40has been started by a section,
24:41which also has the support of somebody like...
24:45The anti-reservation, you mean?
24:46Yes, the deputy chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, who himself, did a press conference along with one of the protesters.
24:54So I think the BJP is realizing that more than Chandachori, because Yogi Adityanath per se, his persona remains untouched
25:04as far as corruption is concerned.
25:06But this is an issue where their core vote bank can be impacted.
25:12And they do not wish to touch this issue.
25:14But it has been touched.
25:15Priti?
25:16You know, Rajdeep, I think we need to be a little more cautious because can we really extrapolate Lok Sabha
25:22numbers to a state election?
25:23And I think we really need to look at that because these are numbers that are reflecting in terms of
25:28if elections were held today in Lok Sabha,
25:31then it seems that the BJP is even-stevened on what it was in 2024.
25:35Now, can we actually say that the UP elections that are in five months' time are going to follow the
25:42same trajectory?
25:43No, I think state elections and, you know, general elections are two different ballgames.
25:49And we need to, you know, and there is a cautionary tale in that.
25:51We've seen that happen so many times.
25:53I'll give you an example of Odisha.
25:54You and I both know it.
25:55Where for the same election, the polity and the voters went and voted the BJP in one election and the
26:02BJD in the other.
26:02The BJP was in 2019, but I'll give you an example, a UP example that you can take.
26:08In Uttar Pradesh in 2022, the BJP scored a big victory.
26:13Two years later comes Lok Sabha, the Samajwaji Party Congress Alliance scores a victory.
26:17But the fact is, that's the alliance that's going into poll.
26:19I have to go by the national numbers.
26:21You know, we can extrapolate and you're right to say that you cannot suggest that just because a Lok Sabha
26:26poll as per MOTN is going against a party,
26:28that will happen in a state election.
26:30For example, Chandachori, is it being seen as the slight of the center or the state?
26:35How is it being perceived by the people locally?
26:38I think we've come to the Chandachori numbers also in a moment.
26:43But clearly, if there is one warning signal, I'm only looking at the warning signal, that's the cover story.
26:48The one big warning signal at the moment is coming from a state that the BJP has more or less
26:53dominated,
26:54except for that 2024 election, over a 15-year period.
26:57Yes, Raj, you wanted to say something.
26:58Just a quick point.
26:59I agree that there should be caveats.
27:01We cannot project what we are looking nationally into a particular state election and say that this is the trend.
27:07But broadly, if you look at it, there is, the BJP always boasts of this, this double-engine Sarkar.
27:13And the fact is, there's a lot of dependence on Prime Minister Modi and the central government that propels a
27:18lot of these states,
27:19particularly Prime Minister Modi, any drop here should be of concern to UP because some of the issues,
27:26including the Gen Z issue that seems to have depressed the numbers...
27:29Jobs is an issue.
27:30Yeah, jobs.
27:31And what is Gen Z fighting for?
27:32Jobs.
27:32Jobs.
27:33Unemployed.
27:33You know, fair examinations.
27:37These are the big issues that they're looking at.
27:39And therefore, I think there will be an impact, not because our polls are showing a dip,
27:43but generally, the mood is shifting and every single party, not just the BJP, has to reckon with.
27:49Can I just ask, Yashwan, that in your poll, Yashwan, when you look at these UP figures,
27:54was there a particular factor that showed where the BJP has become vulnerable suddenly in Uttar Pradesh?
28:00Is there a particular factor, a quick answer?
28:03A quick answer, people would like to listen that it would be Ayodhya, but that's not the fact.
28:07The quick answer would be UGC.
28:09People are talking about Gen Z.
28:12Razdeep, the focus should actually shift to Gen X because it was a Gen X which faced the Mandal Commission
28:21way back in 1989.
28:24And the UGC actually, it's not the kids which are getting alarmed.
28:28It's the Gen X which are the parents of this Gen Z.
28:32You know, the UGC has hit them.
28:35They are reminded of everything that happened in 1989.
28:38They have gone through their phase in their life and they are fearing we handled that part of our life
28:45really in a poor way.
28:46It affected us badly.
28:47And now our kids are going to be impacted by that UGC.
28:51So UGC is hitting their core vote base.
28:54It's the upper caste vote base that is worried that if you set up these committees in colleges which will
29:01allow the SC, STs, OBCs to make complaints against seeming atrocities on the campus that will give a wide ranging
29:11powers to SC, SC students.
29:14That is leading to an upper caste backlash.
29:16That plus presumably Chanda Chori at the moment.
29:19But just two other states that we are looking at.
29:22I think a word on that because don't forget that the central government, in fact the Solicitor General of India
29:27informed the Supreme Court that they have put that on hold and that it is being reconsidered.
29:31So certainly BJP had the feedback that the UGC decision is actually impacting the core vote bank.
29:37The core upper caste vote bank in states like North India.
29:40Just a quick moment and then Siddharth I will give you.
29:42Just two more states so that the BJP gets where else things.
29:47In Punjab for example, another big state going, important state.
29:51I would say big but important state going through the polls.
29:5325% is what the India Alliance is getting and NDA getting 16% of the vote.
29:59Projected seat share in Punjab, India Alliance 11, NDA 1.
30:03This is where Lok Sabha was held.
30:05Remember in a Vidhan Sabha, Punjab will be far more splintered because you are going to have Armourney Party, Congress,
30:12the various Akali factions, BJP potentially all fighting each other.
30:16So keep that caveat in mind.
30:17West Bengal, where clearly the BJP is still benefiting from the honeymoon effect.
30:22Look at the numbers here.
30:24India Alliance 11% and NDA 46% at the moment.
30:29That 11% needs to be checked at the moment.
30:33Projected seat share is 7.
30:35That's a better number.
30:36Seat share, India Alliance is 7 seats.
30:40NDA 35.
30:41So NDA scoring big in West Bengal, a state which in recent times has been dominated by India Alliance.
30:47So the hit that the BJP is taking is UP, the gains they've made in West Bengal on the back
30:52of that big win in May this year.
30:54Yes, Siddharth, you wanted to make a point.
30:56Just to correct myself, that 7% vote share is not, 11% is not a vote share, but go
31:01ahead.
31:02I just wanted to put here for debate a question that is the BJP's rainbow coalition in caste terms of
31:11upper caste and non-Yadav OBCs, is that fracturing?
31:15And did the Bankipur result prove to be, or is it just one isolated incident?
31:23Along with that, if you were to agree with that proposition, Rajiv, that there is some sort of upper caste
31:30resentment and a fracture in that coalition that was assiduously built up before 2014, picked up pace before 2019,
31:37then you have to add economic woes because it is presumably the higher class and their educated youth who are
31:46facing disproportionate burden of unemployment and price rise.
31:50Because Rajiv, what's really happening is, these are, why Raj says that this is a warning signal?
31:56Because there are multiple small storms that are taking place and political events in various states.
32:02So where Bankipur is concerned, in Bihar, you have somebody like a Prashant Kishor who is surging in.
32:08Then you have the unrest over unemployment jobs which has been sparked by no one else but the CJP.
32:14That's something which is caught on. It's not just happening in Delhi alone.
32:17It's all across pan-India.
32:19Now, if you look at the bigger picture, even in Bankipur, in case a Prashant Kishor comes in, is he
32:25damaging the BJP or is he damaging the India alliance?
32:29You know, that's the bigger question.
32:31No, so overall in the bigger picture, is it an advantage BJP or is it a disadvantage?
32:36No, I would think it's a disadvantage BJP.
32:38However, but in Uttar Pradesh, any disadvantage, you know, any numbers going down for the BJP impacts the bigger picture
32:44of the 272 that the BJP hopes to achieve in 2029.
32:49And that is why the elections in the next six months, extremely crucial for the BJP.
32:54Ghanav makes a very good point, which is that if you looked at the drop that the BJP had in
32:58these numbers, the India alliance is not picking up all that.
33:03Yeah, sure.
33:03Someone else is picking that up.
33:04No, I'll give you an example.
33:05And therefore, I think that is a trend that we need to watch.
33:08I'll give you an example.
33:10In Maharashtra, for example, where we also have a projected vote share, India alliance at 43%, NDA 49%.
33:17India alliance gets 17 seats, NDA 31%.
33:21So in the big states, barring Uttar Pradesh, you see, that's why the BJP still remains well ahead of the
33:26India alliance.
33:27Barring Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh.
33:30Tamil Nadu, which has always remained with the India alliance and a strong performance of the India alliance in West
33:36Bengal, of the NDA now in West Bengal, that covers up some of the deficiencies that they are having in
33:42other states of the country.
33:43But I think the state numbers, really, beyond the point in a national poll, do not need to be taken
33:50as definitive.
33:51Let's come to a definitive number.
33:53Performance of Prime Minister Modi as Prime Minister.
34:09Now, more or less, that's 6% down compared to January of 2026.
34:17But when you add 51 and 17, it isn't as if he slid as badly as he did post-COVID
34:24in 2020.
34:25What is the NDA government's biggest achievement?
34:28Political stability, 13%.
34:30Ram Temple still around, 11%.
34:32Infrastructure, 11%.
34:33India government's biggest failure, price rise, 23%.
34:37Unemployment, 16%.
34:39Economic growth, 14%.
34:42Sanjeev Verma, let me get you in very quickly on the issue of the numbers as you are seeing them.
34:51Would you agree that your only warning sign as of now is Uttar Pradesh?
34:56You know, Rajdeep, I believe, as you rightly said, you know, on this show, that momentum is very important in
35:03politics.
35:03I think after winning Maharashtra Assembly elections for the third time in a row with a strike rate of 91%.
35:09After winning Delhi after a gap of 27 years with a strike rate of 69%.
35:16After winning Assam, 82 out of 126 seats with a strike rate of 65%.
35:22After stand-alone, winning 89 seats in Bihar with a strike rate of 89.7%.
35:29And after winning 207 out of 294 seats in Bengal with a strike rate of 71%.
35:36What does the arithmetic tell you?
35:40Momentum is with BJP.
35:41Point number one.
35:42Very quickly, point number two.
35:44Beat Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi, Puducherry, what have you.
35:47Even states where BJP did not win.
35:50It is the woman voter that has made her voice sound.
35:54But Sanju, there's an issue with that.
35:55I'll tell you why.
35:56Because it's not just UP alone, which is, you know, a red flag for you right now.
36:01Just allow me to bring in Yashwan Deshmukh for just a moment.
36:03Because Yashwan, if you look at the number of states, and yes, Rajdeep is completely right where he said that
36:09we really can't get into micro data right now.
36:11But Rajdeep, if you look at it, other than Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, there is a decline in every other
36:17state for the BJP.
36:18Other than just these two states.
36:21Just a minute, Sanju.
36:22Let me just bring in Yashwan, and he can explain that better.
36:25Over to you, Yashwan.
36:27Thank you, Priti.
36:28And actually, in my opening statement, I said there is Bengal and the rest of India.
36:32Yes, there is a problem for the BJP in vote and seat in everywhere, barring Bengal.
36:37And even in Bengal, if you can just play the graphic, there could be a bit confusion for our audience
36:43in there.
36:44You know, the India Alliance vote of 11% is basically the Congress and the left that is written over
36:50there.
36:51While the seat share is taken of Mamta Benerji faction.
36:54Now, the vote share of actually Mamta Benerji, not the rebel faction.
36:59We are talking very clearly about the TMC, it is roughly about 31% and 7 seats.
37:05There is literally, literally less than 3% support for so-called rebel faction in West Bengal.
37:12So, whenever you talk about, forget about your symbol, forget about who is controlling the party.
37:19For Bengal voters, if there is a TMC, it means Mamta Benerji, not the rebel faction.
37:24Let's be very clear about that.
37:26Having said that, it is also correct that even that Mamta Benerji-led TMC, even that Mamta Benerji-led TMC
37:34is hardly holding up 31% at this point of time.
37:37And it is a complete sweep for the BJP in West Bengal.
37:41It could go even further than whatever we have projected.
37:44So, that part is aside.
37:46Similarly, in Punjab, when we are talking about Radheep over there, the India Alliance includes the seats won by the
37:52Aam Admi Party and the Congress together while they will be contesting against each other.
37:56So, that's another way of looking at it.
37:59But for the BJP, the bigger question is outside West Bengal, there is drainage of vote and seats, no matter
38:07how small it is, across the spectrum.
38:10And they need to be worried about it.
38:11But not Maharashtra, Yashwan, not Maharashtra.
38:14Not Maharashtra, because of the simple reason.
38:16So, West Bengal, Maharashtra, everywhere else, Rajdeep, the BJP.
38:20You know, first of all, Yashwan, that is very misleading for our viewers to put it at 11% because
38:27technically the TMC is part of the India Alliance.
38:29That's why the confusion came, it should have remained at 42% but that apart.
38:34I want to know, you're telling me, just a minute, Sanju, you're telling me across the Hindi heartland and that's
38:40really what we should be looking at.
38:42Across the Hindi heartland is where the BJP is taking a bit of a hit.
38:47Correct me if I'm wrong.
38:48That's the states where they are in power, that's where there's an element of anti-incumbency.
38:53In the western part of the country, Maharashtra, Gujarat, BJP is holding its own.
38:57They've made massive gains in the eastern corner of the country, especially in West Bengal.
39:01The real change that's taking place, please correct me if I'm wrong, Yashwan, is in the Hindi heartland.
39:07Am I right or wrong?
39:08You are right.
39:09You are bang on correct over there and that's where the problem is the warning shots.
39:15The only good thing about the BJP, which I hope Sanju Verma will appreciate that I'm pointing this out rather
39:22than getting angry at us,
39:23is that the gap between the states where it is a bipolar fight between the Congress and the BJP.
39:30The gap is so huge, Rajdeep, that even a 5% swing against the BJP, the gap is from 20
39:37-25% vote share gap to 20-15% vote share gap.
39:41So, that impact...
39:42That's why the Congress is not gaining the seats at the expense of the BJP, the BJP may be down,
39:49but it's not gaining in terms of seats.
39:51Now, Sanju Verma, complete your point.
39:53Now, you should smile.
39:54You see, your graph is slowly going down, but you are so well ahead of your competitor earlier that you
40:01are still willing seats.
40:02So, you should smile.
40:05Okay, you know, I just want to tell you, Ashwant, where did I get angry?
40:08I mean, if you can disagree with me, I can disagree with you.
40:11When you disagree, it is freedom of speech.
40:13If I disagree, even with a smile, you say Sanju Verma is getting angry.
40:17I have the right to disagree.
40:18Now, let me come to the point.
40:19You know, I don't understand this double speak with no offense to none.
40:23Now, let me come to the limited point.
40:25The limited point is this.
40:26I keep hearing this.
40:28Gen Z, Gen Alpha, Gen X, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
40:31Let's get one thing very clear.
40:33And at the expense of sounding cliched, let me repeat.
40:3722 lakh voters in Maharashtra or Sinbi election 2024 were either first-timers or Gen Z voters voted for BJP.
40:459 lakh Gen Z or first-timer voters in Haryana voted for BJP.
40:496.7 lakh Gen Z or first-timer voters in Haryana voted for BJP.
40:53What's your source for this?
40:55What's your source for this?
40:57Wait, don't keep interrupting me and...
40:59No, no, I need to know the source.
41:00You can't throw numbers without a source.
41:02I don't interrupt you.
41:06Please hold your horses.
41:08Now, 10.3 lakh.
41:10First-time voters or Gen Z voters in Bihar voted for BJP.
41:14Asang, 8.42 lakh.
41:16Either Gen Z or first-time voters voted for BJP.
41:2023.69 lakh voters in Haryana voted for BJP.
41:23Madam, madam, you cannot throw...
41:24No, no, madam.
41:25Either you give me the source.
41:27You give me the source of your numbers.
41:29Please give me the source.
41:31The source of the numbers is based on what the election commission has extrapolated over the years.
41:39And that data is available on the ECI website.
41:42There could only be an minus or plus 2%.
41:46Please understand that.
41:48I'm not voting data on my heart.
41:51Go and check the ECI website.
41:52I take your larger point.
41:54I take your larger point.
41:56Madam, I take your larger point.
41:59I have shown that Gen Z voters have voted for the BJP.
42:02You wouldn't win election without the Gen Z point taken.
42:06But much changes.
42:08But politics is never...
42:09Madam, politics is never static.
42:11As we are seeing...
42:12You see, you are looking at numbers from a point of view of 2024.
42:15We are now in August 2026.
42:17But Rajesh Kalappa, the point which Yashwan made is important.
42:21There is anti-incumbency creeping in in several BJP-ruled states.
42:25But you are not benefiting necessarily, A, because the gap is wide.
42:29B, because people may be looking at other options.
42:31Gaurav Savan mentioned, for example, Jastav Prashant Kishore in Bakipur.
42:35It's not as if the RJD won Bakipur.
42:37So isn't that something that should worry the Congress?
42:40That even when there is anti-incumbency, in direct BJP Congress fights, the gap is very high.
42:49See, Razeeb, in my view, the BJP has entered the domain of what they call the law of marginal disappearing
43:00or diminishing utility.
43:02Now, the point is this, that as far as the BJP is concerned, and I would like to, you know,
43:08think for a moment about the position that UPA was in 2011.
43:12And I remember the mood of the nation poll of 2011.
43:17And at that time, even after the ANNA agitation and so on and so forth, the mood of the nation
43:23poll said that the UPA was still holding on.
43:27How many seats did we get in 2014?
43:29We got 44 seats.
43:31Now, point is that the BJP has entered a domain where it is diminishing and diminishing at a very precarious
43:39pace.
43:40Now, consider this, that there is a website which is created and that is regarding the Kaukrat Janata Party.
43:49How many people flock to it?
43:52Over a million people.
43:59No, no, one minute.
44:01Now, one minute.
44:04One minute, Razeeb.
44:05I understand, I understand, I understand what you're saying.
44:07I understand what you're saying.
44:08See, point is, the BJP spent over 100 crore in trying to malign the image of Mr. Rahul Gandhi.
44:16Now, look at the crowds which are flocking to see Mr. Rahul Gandhi.
44:19Not just at Allahabad, at a Pune.
44:23Now, this is the real test.
44:25All the money that the BJP has spent on its various social media campaigns to destroy the image of Rahul
44:33Gandhi.
44:33And what ultimately the people are saying.
44:36Okay, so let me ask you a second.
44:39You know, Pramod Mahajan had said crowds do not mean votes.
44:44No, no, one minute.
44:45Let's look at numbers.
44:47We have limited time.
44:49You know, you're saying that they'll try.
44:50I'd be very happy.
44:50Just a minute, Mr. Kalapag.
44:52Mr. Kalapag, you know, the question is whether the Congress is benefiting from this anti-incumbency that may be setting
44:59in some states.
45:00In some states, I repeat, best suited to be next PM.
45:04Narendra Modi, 49%.
45:06Rahul Gandhi, 27%.
45:09Since you mentioned Rahul Gandhi, sir.
45:11Joseph Vijay has come in as the new entrant.
45:15I don't think in India today, mood of the nation had even factored him till the other day at 9%.
45:20Now, majority or large number may be from Tamil Nadu.
45:23Abhijit Deepke.
45:24Abhijit Deepke.
45:26Kaukrut Jandha Party, 1.3%.
45:28Above Erwin Sundar.
45:29At Arvin Kejriwal, 1.2%.
45:31Now, this is, of course, a direct question.
45:33Best suited to be next PM.
45:35Rahul Gandhi's performance as LOP.
45:38Outstanding was 24%.
45:40Jan, 2026.
45:41August, 2026.
45:42Remains almost the same.
45:4323.
45:44Good then was 20.
45:46Now, they say 25%.
45:47At the 2, there is a markup but not significant.
45:50About 4% in all.
45:52Average, 18%.
45:53Then, 18%.
45:54Now, poor 17.
45:56Very poor.
45:57Sorry.
45:58Poor 14.
45:59Very poor 13.
46:01Best suited to lead India block.
46:03Rahul Gandhi is at 29%.
46:06See, Joseph Vijay is coming at 12%.
46:10This is first day, first show, big hit.
46:13Mamata Banerjee is at 9%.
46:15Best suited to lead Congress.
46:18Rahul Gandhi, 41%.
46:20Priyanka Gandhi, 7%.
46:22Now, is this the coming again of Rahul Gandhi?
46:25No, no, no.
46:26I mean, is he where he is, Raghseed?
46:29Basically, before is it coming of age of Rahul Gandhi once again.
46:33Yes.
46:34Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains on top of the pack after 12 years of being Prime Minister.
46:40And there is no one anywhere close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
46:44You know, Prime Minister, if I may, is at 48.7 and Rahul Gandhi 21 points behind him.
46:51Then, let's, you know, just a point of clarification, that it is correct that the Prime Minister is very high
46:56at 48.7.
46:57Though, when you compare to the earlier poll in February, he drops away about 5 to 6%.
47:03Let's say Donald Trump would be very happy with these numbers because he's in the low 25s, 30s.
47:08So, 48% is very good.
47:09But if we take a look at Prime Minister Modi's track record, he normally goes right up to 50, 60,
47:1470%.
47:15So, this time, he needs to be concerned that it is dropping a little below.
47:19So, his highest approval rate was around 70% at one stage.
47:23Yes, it was at one stage.
47:24In your mood of the nation, it's down today to 51%.
47:26But as Gaurav says, if you ask a direct question, 49% say Modi, 27% say Rahul Gandhi.
47:32No, that's the point that you have to look at.
47:34That, as Prime Minister's popularity or whatever it is drops a bit by 6%.
47:38That 6% doesn't go to Rahul Gandhi.
47:41Instead, it goes to all the other leaders that's there.
47:43The second point I think you need to look at, and that is what I think is changing a lot
47:47of the polls,
47:48is what you mentioned earlier about the biggest achievements of the NDA government.
47:52I think we haven't discussed that.
47:54We haven't discussed that.
47:54But if you look, political stability is one that you mentioned.
47:57Ram Temple is the other.
47:58Infrastructure development is the third.
48:00What is happening now, because of the Gen Z agitation,
48:04is that the first big thing that the NDA government provided us was political stability.
48:09That is beginning to show cracks, because status quo is no more being accepted.
48:14But those numbers are not out yet.
48:15We're going to know.
48:16I think you hear him answer.
48:17Yeah, I did.
48:17You did.
48:18Biggest achievement is at 13%.
48:19Yes, go ahead.
48:20So, therefore, if you look at that, political stability as an ace in them begins to have a little crack,
48:26because Gen Z is asking for enough of status quo, let's go for change.
48:30We're going to look at the Gen Z numbers in a moment.
48:32Just take a look at Ram Temple, okay?
48:34Again, a great achievement.
48:36Didn't bring them the numbers.
48:37But this time, if you look at what is coming up,
48:40is that people say that the Chandachori thing has impacted the Modi government's and Yogi government's image,
48:48which could have an implication that's there.
48:49And finally, this point of infrastructure development, okay?
48:53No doubt that Prime Minister Modi, and particularly under Gatkari and others,
48:58there's been phenomenal amount of growth of roads under Mr. Vaishnav, railways, and others.
49:04But the Gen Z is saying, that's great, but are you giving me jobs?
49:08And secondly, what was seen as very important in terms of roads and everything else is now seen, look...
49:14No, no, so all that is taken.
49:17Why is this not necessarily benefiting?
49:20You see, Rahul Gandhi's performance, Congress is getting about 21% of the vote.
49:24Others are about 10 to 12%.
49:27Large amounts of Congress voters are choosing Rahul Gandhi.
49:30He's not getting additional incremental voters.
49:33The BJP voters, those who switched to the BJP over the last 12 years,
49:38are not looking at Rahul Gandhi as an alternative.
49:41So, if Rahul Gandhi has warning signals, there are warning signals there for the Congress and Rahul as well.
49:46There is a cautionary tale which is built in right here.
49:47Quickly, yeah, we've got two minutes only.
49:49One by one.
49:50There is electoral dominance of the BJP, that's given.
49:54Yes.
49:54But now people are questioning whether electoral dominance is also linked to public trust.
50:00And at the same time, when public trust is there, does it have to do as much with governance?
50:06Or is the public trust also demanding...
50:08Why is Rahul Gandhi not getting the benefit of these weaknesses in the BJP?
50:12That's the question that is there.
50:14Let's pull out the numbers of best suited to be the next Prime Minister.
50:18And this is the cautionary tale which has been built in.
50:21C. Joseph Vijay, 9%.
50:22Abhiji Dipke, 1.3%.
50:24Over 10% of the people here, Rajdeep.
50:27And who defines this gentry?
50:29It is the Gen Z.
50:30If you remember, C. Joseph Vijay was the spark which led to the entire...
50:34How much did we debate about the Gen Z propelling C. Joseph Vijay to be the Chief Minister?
50:39And this is the lot which doesn't seemingly have as much faith in Rahul Gandhi as somebody new...
50:45So the challenge for Rahul Gandhi, correct me if I'm wrong, the challenge for Rahul Gandhi is to start getting
50:52the entire cohort of those who are disgruntled or frustrated or anxious about their future...
50:59Rahul Gandhi has a role to...
51:03Rahul Gandhi has a role to...
51:03Rahul Gandhi has a role to...
51:03I think it is...
51:04I think it is...
51:06I'm one by one please.
51:07But Rahul Gandhi doesn't mean that...
51:08I'm one by one please.
51:08But Rahul Gandhi doesn't mean that...
51:08I'm one by one, I'm one of the viewers who won't know what you're saying.
51:10Rahul Gandhi has a role to...
51:10I'm just asking you a quick question.
51:12Break the data down of C. Joseph Vijay because I was looking at the micro detailing of your data.
51:16It really...
51:16The popularity doesn't really come from Tamil Nadu, it comes from the North East.
51:20So there is a section, Rajdeep, that is looking at new alternatives and they are...
51:26No, no, but that's...
51:26You see, again, that's not...
51:27See, Joseph Vijay is not a contender in the North East.
51:29The point I'm making...
51:30But he's popular.
51:31No, the bigger point is...
51:32He can be popular.
51:32The point is, if you have to win an election, you have to start getting a large chunk of the
51:37anti-BJP votes gravitating to 149 individuals.
51:39And is he a 24-7 political leader if Rahul Gandhi is not a 24-7 political leader?
51:43I just want to make a quick point before you wind up.
51:45Just one point.
51:46Where do we get the votes from?
51:47So even if the voters...
51:49Yes, just a minute.
51:50Firstly, Vijay replaces in some senses Kejriwal.
51:53Because earlier, Kejriwal is...
51:54Yes, he says that.
51:55Yes, he says that.
51:55So that is...
51:56That has moved over there.
51:57Now, as you rightly said, they have to attract...
52:00Rahul Gandhi has to attract all those who are fleeing the BJP if they are fleeing that.
52:05I think Maria makes a very good point.
52:07The BJP is highly resilient.
52:09It hasn't collapsed in a way.
52:11It's...
52:11Don't ever imagine that through these polls.
52:13It has just dipped a bit.
52:14It's still very strong where it is.
52:16So, Rahul Gandhi has to eat into the BJP warts.
52:20He has also to capture the imagination of the young.
52:22Which right now, the alternatives seem...
52:24So...
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