00:00And welcome back to the feed. Severe weather will be returning to the plains on Thursday after a few days
00:06hiatus after what was the biggest tornado outbreak of the season. I'll show you the numbers here in a little
00:12bit. I want to show you this though. This is what we're looking at as far as the severe weather
00:16is concerned for Thursday, Thursday night, a pretty elongated area from Winnipeg all the way down the middle in Odessa.
00:25And then we've included this, the moderate risk.
00:28I think this is mostly going to be for large hail and damaging winds. I do believe there is a
00:34tornado threat. I do not believe it's going to be anywhere near the amount of tornadoes that we saw Friday,
00:39Friday night. But I do think there's a tornado threat and I'll show you why here in a second. I
00:43do want to show you, Jeff Cornish has been crunching the numbers here for the tornado outbreak that we did
00:49see on, let's see here, I want to get rid of that, that we did see on Friday, Friday night.
00:57I mean, this is a lot of tornadoes. Right now confirmed 71, 71. The majority of them was across Illinois
01:05with some damage. There was two EF2s and six, two EF3s, two EF2s and 43.
01:13Well, if you count the EF1 and EF0, there was about 60 of them. So a lot of tornadoes with
01:21this. A lot of tornadoes with this. So yeah, what an outbreak we had. All right, let me show you
01:28the storm that we're tracking. It's this upper low. Anytime you have upper lows in the California this time of
01:34the year, two days later, you get severe weather in the plains.
01:37That's just the way it works. And you can see it spinning here. Boy, thunderstorm, soaking rain we've already seen
01:44in Central California. About one to three feet of snow in the Sierra up above 7,000 feet, much needed.
01:50Now, this is going to be coming out into the intermountain west tomorrow. And as a result, there's going to
01:59be severe weather with this as early as Wednesday night. Let me show you the area. It's not a big
02:07area, certainly, but nonetheless, some severe weather across the high plains.
02:11And in this part of the country, there's always two impacts. Thunderstorms here are never run of the mill this
02:16time of the year. They always have wind and hail. I think the tornado threat is pretty low. However, I
02:21start to get worried on Thursday.
02:24Let me show you why. I want to show you the high temperatures across the country on Thursday. Here you
02:33go. I mean, you've got the 70 line all the way up to Minneapolis. Lots of 70s, even some 80s
02:39showing up here.
02:40So you're pretty much about 10 degrees above historical averages in most locations here across the Midwest. So it's really
02:48a taste of May.
02:49All right. Let me show you some of the modeling here that we're looking at. First, let me show you
02:54the upper levels as we go through Wednesday and Thursday. So here's the upper low, intermountain west. You can see
03:00it on Wednesday.
03:01I'm going to show you Thursday morning. Here it comes. Right now, it's what I call positively tilted. See, it's
03:08tilted from northeast to southwest. You see that? So that's a positive tilt.
03:13What that tells you is most of the energy is on the western side of the trough. Okay. Let's go
03:19forward as we go in the Thursday afternoon. Here we go. Right here, 8 p.m. to 2 a.m.
03:26You can see the trough go slightly. Notice the tilt now. Instead of like this, positive, it's now like this,
03:34negative.
03:35And that's because of this piece of energy coming across southeastern Colorado. That's causing a negative tilt, which now you
03:42have all of the energy on the warm side of the trough, right, where it's warm and it's humid.
03:48Let me show you the—watch how the low-level jet—well, let me show you the warmth. I showed you the
03:53warmth. Look at the humidity. Look at that green. This is your 60-degree dew point temperature.
03:58Watch it go up. 60 degrees, the threshold that we look at for severe weather just by itself. There it
04:05is. That's in the morning. Thursday afternoon, Thursday evening, you're even getting a little spoke of 65-degree dew point
04:13air, but the 60 goes all the way up.
04:16Look how far north it goes. That's why you've got enough juice with the warmth and low-level dew point
04:22temperature, 60 or greater, for severe weather, way up into the Dakotas—I should say in the Minnesota.
04:28In the southern Manitoba. But the best energy is going to be down in here where we saw the upper
04:36-level feature here. One of the things I've really learned that is a good indication of where the severe weather
04:42is going to be is the low-level jet. Winds are around 5,000 feet. Not only where they're strongest,
04:47but where they increase. Thursday morning, watch this. Thursday afternoon. All right. We're looking at about 30 knots, so you
04:54have a belt of wind in here, but watch how it increases.
04:57Watch how this increases. 2 o'clock Thursday, 8, and then watch this. Boom. Right here. Now, you have enough
05:07wind for severe weather up here, but where do you see the biggest increase? It's in here. Southeastern Kansas, southeastern
05:16Missouri. Because you go from here. Let's go. 2 o'clock Thursday, 2 a.m. Friday. Watch this. Boom.
05:24Boom. That's a big increase.
05:26That's from 30 knots to what looks like almost 60, 65 knots of wind in here. Right in here. Where
05:35you have the dew point temperatures in the 60s, you have plenty of warmth.
05:42And when you look at the surface pressure here. Let me go back. You've got a little area of low
05:48pressure right in here. Well, let me go back. Next one. This is it. Watch this. Thursday, right in here.
05:55Boom. Right there. See that? You've got a little area of low pressure that goes in here.
06:00Which tells me, when you see that, you have enough twisting and turning directional shear for some tornadoes. Small area.
06:09While I can't roll out tornadoes in the northern part, I think your tornado threat's down in here.
06:15In that moderate risk. But I really think it's in here. So as a result, I don't think we're looking
06:22at lots of tornadoes. I think we're looking at lots of wind and hail. Right now, if you have to
06:26ask me, how many tornadoes do you think we're going to get?
06:29I think it's under 12. I think it's like 5 to 10. But it's likely going to be in southeastern
06:37Kansas, southwestern Missouri. Large hail and damaging wind are the biggest threats. And much of the severe weather is probably
06:44going to be Thursday night. Thursday evening into Thursday night. And that's the feed.
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