- 6 weeks ago
Do we already know who the Commanders want to take at No. 7? Seems like DQ may have dropped a breadcrumb?
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00:00All right. Ben's with us as he is every Friday, this Friday, a week from a moment in which we'll
00:07know what the team did in the first round of the NFL draft. Ben is a multi-time mock draft
00:14champion in major mock draft competitions. That's a real thing.
00:19We talk about it every year, but he's very good at this. And you are right now on mock number
00:26one. I know a mock number what, what, what, what, where are you right now? Mock eight?
00:32Uh, eight. Yes. Okay. So, uh, how many more before you're submitted mock draft to the various competitions that you're
00:43involved in?
00:46Yeah. Um, I'm going to do the, probably the mock draft I enjoy doing the most is where I look
00:52at, uh, sort of a choose your own adventure version where, you know, lay it out six different ways that
00:57it could go depending on the position it's picture trades or whatever.
01:02Um, so, but then after that, it may just be the last one, the, you know, the final one. I
01:07don't know if I'll do another one in between. I mean, I'm doing them on my own, but publicly, I
01:11may not, I may not do anything until the last one in terms of the whole first round.
01:15By the way, I think it would be, would it be more interesting to you to see the process right
01:20now or to be there on draft night?
01:25You mean to be in the war room, I mean?
01:27Be in the war room on draft night or be a part of all of the meetings and conversations of
01:33the last few weeks in the next few days.
01:37Oh, yeah, that's a, that's a really interesting. I mean, I think if I had to pick, I'd probably pick
01:41the war room and on draft night just because you want to, you know, be there should there be some
01:47real, you know, tense moment or you got to make a decision on a trade.
01:51But yeah, certainly it would be great to see, you know, all the mechanics that go into it.
01:58You know, the conversations leading up to it and does that, does that have any fruit that bear any fruit
02:04for them going forward?
02:05So it would all be great, but I probably would pick the draft night just to, you know, just to
02:10be there.
02:11It would be the most exciting, but we would learn the most about the guys running this organization.
02:17And by the way, about their current roster, because so many conversations, I'm sure, in those meetings about their own
02:25current roster and their, their needs.
02:28What do you think we learned, if anything, yesterday from Adam Peters and Lance Newmark?
02:34Yeah, I mean, you know, obviously light on specifics, but I guess I would say, I mean, look, this isn't
02:41surprising, but Adam Peters said, look, it's most likely.
02:45Obviously, we'll pick up seven and, you know, look, all every year, there's tons of trade rumors that never go
02:51anywhere.
02:52So that's a logical thing, you know, odds are likely.
02:55But he also said, I don't want to make it sound like we're not looking at things.
02:59And he, he added, you know, we're, we're always doing our due diligence essentially.
03:03But to me, it didn't, it sounded like an acknowledgement that there's a little more than just being, you know,
03:10doing, doing your, your, your due diligence.
03:13It sounded like, you know, there's an acknowledgement that, you know, it'd be good to get extra picks.
03:17So I don't know if that's really a big revelation or anything.
03:20And I guess he didn't like say it's flat out, but that was my interpretation of it.
03:24So, you know, again, it's, it's, it's, at least it's just an acknowledgement that he's on the same page that
03:30the rest of us are.
03:31That, you know, some perfect world, they could get extra picks, but, you know, how are they willing to go
03:36down beyond where the top tier of players is?
03:39I think, I guess it's probably going to be no.
03:42And that's where it'll be interesting.
03:44You know, he, I guess, disagreed to a certain degree with Brett Veach, the GM of the Kansas City Chiefs,
03:52who believes that there will be a lot of trades in the first round.
03:56What do you think?
04:01I just think I'm looking at the top 10.
04:03I think there's just two, two scenarios that just make too much sense to not get done.
04:09The Cardinals at three.
04:10I mean, if, if the Jets at two take Arvel Reese and David Bailey is sitting there, then I can
04:15see the Cardinals taking Bailey.
04:17But the assumption now is that the Jets would go Bailey.
04:20I Reese being a bit more of a project and the Cardinals have had some issues with similar projects like
04:25that.
04:26And they've won offensive line.
04:27And it sounds like, so them trading down would absolutely make sense.
04:32Who, who trades up for it?
04:34I don't know.
04:35But, you know, I think Todd McKay laid out why a Saints trading from eight to three could make some
04:40sense.
04:42So we've heard about Dallas.
04:43I think the Browns at six, another team where they may want to go offensive line and you can get
04:49that probably a few spots later.
04:51So that could be a case where Dallas trades up and goes for a, try to get like a sunny
04:57style.
04:57Well, I'll just say this in terms of the mock drafts.
05:00Now, obviously I have no idea what teams boards are.
05:03But, you know, when you hear most people talk about this, they say they grade out like maybe 10 to
05:0812 players with a first round grade, which is very low relative to the norm.
05:12Every time I have done a mock draft without knowing this team's board, I always, when I get to the
05:17Cowboys at 12, I feel like you can tell the drop off is right there.
05:23Especially for a team that's probably not going to take offensive line, which I wouldn't think that they would.
05:28So I think it's another reason why I can see Dallas trading up because they probably recognize, boy, we're not
05:34going to get a defensive player that we need here, the value.
05:38So based on that, that's just two trades in the top 10.
05:41And then after that, you know, you've got multiple teams with multiple first round picks.
05:46You've got teams like Miami that have four third round picks.
05:49So, yeah, I would think there'll be a decent amount of trades.
05:52But, again, maybe that's wishful thinking because, again, there's always rumors.
05:57And then oftentimes these things have fall flat.
05:59So hopeful that there's some trades for sure.
06:02You know, the best part about trades in the NFL draft versus the NBA draft is they announce them when
06:09they've happened so that you don't get to the end of the first round and find out that the player
06:14you picked is actually property of another team.
06:17And that may be the dumbest thing that we watch with respect to drafts is the way the NBA does
06:24it.
06:24And I still don't know why they do it that way.
06:28Do you?
06:28Yeah.
06:29I mean, no.
06:30I mean, we all know what's going on in real time.
06:32Right.
06:33You know, so it doesn't make any sense that they don't.
06:36I mean, I don't know if there's some legalese to it or, you know, it could just be that they
06:41need to verify, you know, the deal.
06:45And therefore, they're not going to say public until it's been verified on their end.
06:51And for some reason, maybe that system is slower.
06:55I don't know.
06:56But, yes, it's very odd that they do it that way.
06:59You know, when the player takes a picture.
07:02I mean, this happens even with the NFL, I guess.
07:04But the player takes a picture with a hat of a team that drafts it and then he's not going
07:07to play for it.
07:07It's just so dumb.
07:09It's really one of the dumbest things.
07:11And you say we all know, we only know if we're watching the draft or we're on social media.
07:17If you just happen to walk by a screen and you see the ticker going by, you know, you're completely
07:23confused once you get to the end of the first round.
07:25Now, back to the NFL draft, though.
07:28Give me the trade that you've mocked involving Washington that you either like the most or for whatever reason you
07:36think has the best chance of happening.
07:39Yeah.
07:41Well, I think to maximize the situation, go down as far as they possibly can to get a greater haul
07:47while still remaining in the top tier is probably a deal with Miami.
07:55The Dolphins pick 11.
07:56Now, obviously, the Dolphins are in a bit of a rebuild mode, new regime and all that.
08:00But, you know, they've got four third round picks.
08:03And maybe the new regime like says, hey, we want to get, you know, we want to go for it
08:07here and get a real building block right off the bat, whoever that might be.
08:10For them.
08:11So them trading.
08:14I think you could look at it like their last two third round picks are toward the end of the
08:18third for, you know, to throw into Washington or maybe it's one of the higher third round picks plus a
08:25fourth.
08:26You know, again, that's not a second round pick.
08:29In order to do that, you're going to have to trade down lower.
08:31And that's where, you know, you have to decide, are you willing to drop down and count level?
08:36I'm going to guess they're not.
08:37But so Miami, if you play out the math, basically any of the players that we've discussed for them, almost
08:46very, very good odds, at least one of them would be on the board.
08:50Whether that's Carnell Tate, Caleb Downs, Mantua Delaney, and so on.
08:55I'm not even counting like a Jordan Tyson if they think, if they're cool with the medicals and would put
09:01a guy in like there.
09:02Because if he didn't have the injury history, he would definitely be in that top tier as well.
09:08And the offensive lineman, again, I wouldn't necessarily think they would take one.
09:12But, hey, maybe they reach a certain point and say, hey, we can get a guard right now better than
09:16what we have.
09:17Why not do that?
09:18So I think that trade to me, you know, again, going to Miami, dropping out of Miami to get like
09:25an extra third, maybe two thirds or a third and a fourth.
09:28I think that feels like it could be the most realistic.
09:31Again, I don't know that that's remotely on the table.
09:34But that just feels like the best chance to stay at the blue chip level while simultaneously getting more picks.
09:42Talking to Ben Standig, at Ben Standig on X on Twitter, Ben writes and covers this team on Substack.
09:50It's totally worth it.
09:51It's hardly anything a month.
09:53It's called Last Man Standing.
09:55You can get a link to it if you go to his X account, again, at Ben Standig.
10:01So you did something that I always find interesting, which is kind of the consensus of many mock drafts.
10:11Like, I think the one area on the Sunday afternoon following a draft and evaluating a draft is you can
10:20evaluate it based on, to a certain degree, it's not foolproof, but did they draft a player in a spot
10:29that was, from a consensus standpoint, too early or too late?
10:35Tell everybody about what you kind of went through in the process and in developing a consensus board and who
10:43you used to develop that consensus.
10:47Yeah, I'm not in front of my laptop.
10:49I don't remember exactly everything.
10:50In case you want me to say anything on that, I hope I have the screen up.
10:53But, yeah, I think there's some sites out there and they'll say, oh, we have 100 and something mock drafts
11:02and we put them all together.
11:03And I'm like, cool.
11:04I don't know who 95% of these people are.
11:06Just because you put up a mock draft doesn't mean you actually know anything.
11:11So, I basically just went with some of the more established ones, but also people who put out a list
11:19of at least 100 players.
11:20That would be like Todd McShay with the Ringer, the ESPN guys, Matt Miller, Jordan Reed, Dave Brugler with the
11:29Apple Adder.
11:30Yeah, and PFF, like, you know, they're sort of a broad one.
11:35And then this other side, Draft Tech, it's been around forever and I always just kind of use them.
11:40So, I went there.
11:41So, I just went with that group.
11:42So, you know, it's not 100, but I know who these people are.
11:46Whether I agree with their opinions or not, I know they're based in some level of reality.
11:50Also, let's be realistic.
11:53The group think aspect of all this is off the chart.
11:56There's no way that normal people are scouting 200 players, period, let alone in a real way.
12:04So, they just, the conversation, you know, if the conversation is, oh, Jordan Tyson now, you might go eight or
12:11nine.
12:11Well, that's because that's what the people who are in touch with the NFL people think is going to happen.
12:18And then it trickles down from there.
12:19So, those sites are, a lot of times, like I said, does a group think anyway?
12:23Yeah, I mean, I love this because even though, again, I mean, you put together a consensus board with legitimate
12:31people that people know.
12:33And there are others out there that put consensus boards together with, as you said, 100 mock drafts.
12:38And it's not foolproof, but if you want to evaluate or grade a draft when it's done, that's the only
12:47way to do it because you have no idea in projecting these players most of the time.
12:52It's looking at, okay, they drafted, you know, they traded back and they drafted Cooper Jr. from Indiana.
13:01Did they get them at a spot that was at the consensus, above the consensus, or below it?
13:08Did they get value or not?
13:10And it's one way to do it.
13:11Now, one of the reasons I brought this up is I do like this list that you put together.
13:16And it'll be interesting to use this list against the Washington picks, you know, in terms of, you know, where
13:22they pick these players.
13:23Because you've got, essentially, you know, the top 100 players ranked based on these consensus mocks.
13:31But, man, and this does not surprise me, but Jeremiah Love is the number one player per all of these
13:40mock drafts and big boards.
13:43He's the number one player in the draft.
13:46And I said earlier, Ben, that this is the one player more than any other in this draft.
13:52That if we're sitting here a week from today and Jeremiah Love was on the board at 7 and Adam
13:57Peters didn't take him, that's the one that would really anger the fan base.
14:02Do you agree?
14:03More than any other.
14:04Maybe Sonny Stiles, you know, if they passed on him too.
14:08But Love is the real, everybody believes, generational player in this draft.
14:18Yeah, you know, obviously one of the big talking points of this draft has been that arguably the three best
14:23players in the draft, Jeremiah Love, Safety, Caleb Downs, and Linebacker, Sonny Stiles, all play non-premium positions.
14:30And that just has to do a lot with how the league values certain positions in terms of getting paid.
14:35Like, putting all that aside, the difference between Love and, say, Caleb Downs is that they're both excellent football players,
14:44but Love also brings that higher-end athleticism, which, as Adam Peters pointed out, generally means more upside, right?
14:51Caleb Downs, obviously a very good athlete relative to the norm and good for a football player, but he doesn't
14:56have particularly exciting speed or measurables or things like that.
15:00So, like, Love is, like, the best combination of both.
15:04Like, even Sonny Stiles, I was talking to a former front office person in the league this week, and, you
15:11know, he was saying that, like, for him, like, Stiles maybe even has the bigger upside of all these guys
15:18we're talking about,
15:19but the floor is lower than maybe you would like.
15:23And also, it's good to remember, not that the public mock drafts, as you were just discussing, are always accurate,
15:30but before the Combine,
15:33Sonny Stiles was typically being projected, like, in the 10 to 15 range.
15:37And then when he blew up at the Combine, then he became a top-five pick, whereas Love and Downs
15:43were consistently there all throughout.
15:46It kind of happened with Delane, too, right?
15:50A little bit, yeah.
15:51I mean, he was more, like, yeah, maybe, like, I think he was still sort of, like, in the back
15:56end of, like, this top-tier group we were talking about,
15:59but now the odds that, you know, now there's more discussion, could he be there at seven for Washington?
16:03Would that be something they would do?
16:04Maybe we weren't doing that before he ran a really good 40 time.
16:09But his, you know, his tape, I think, is also, you know, pretty impressive from everybody that I've heard talk
16:17about it.
16:17And if that's the pick, I don't think anybody would balk at that.
16:21So, yeah, it's all very interesting.
16:27Here's the thing that I think for me, at the end of the day, and this was essentially the question
16:32that I asked Adam Peters yesterday,
16:33some version of this, which was, your history here has been, you take the best athletes.
16:39Yeah.
16:40Yeah.
16:40And, you know, again, not to say he gave, like, a particularly great answer, but the point of that question
16:45for me was,
16:46this is a draft where some of the guys who you may need the most, a wide receiver like Carnell
16:53Tate or the safety like Caleb Downs,
16:55and they would not fall into that category.
16:57They're really good athletes, but they're not into the category of where he's drafting.
17:01And, you know, again, he just said, hey, look, typically the better athlete has the more upside.
17:07And it's not always about athleticism, but the trend has been that way in two years.
17:12And, you know, would he break that for Caleb Downs or Carnell Tate?
17:16We'll see.
17:17And, look, that's my opinion of, not my opinion, but that's what I'm looking at, say, the RAS score.
17:22You know, the NFL teams have way better metrics than that.
17:27So they may have other information that says, oh, in-game Caleb Downs is everything you want as an athlete.
17:33His in-game speed is great, whatever.
17:35That may be.
17:36You know, that's part of the target now.
17:38But from what we see, there is a difference between some of these guys when it comes to athleticism.
17:45Yeah, and his preference for it has been obvious over his first two drafts, first two off-seasons, and even
17:53this beginning, free agency-wise, of his third off-season.
17:58So if I said to you just one of the three will be available at seven, Styles, Downs, Love, who's
18:07the most likely of those three to be available at seven?
18:12Well, I'll put it like this.
18:14I think if Durante Jones is this year's Cliff Kingsbury, drops the note to Peters.
18:21Last year, Kingsbury apparently dropped the note, said take Josh Connerly, which ultimately they did.
18:25If he did that, boy, I think Caleb Downs would be such a good fit because the safety in that
18:31Brian Flores defense is so impactful,
18:34the way it's probably even maybe more important than a cornerback.
18:37Like, and I'm not discounting Styles, but like, you know, they have, you know, they added Leo Chennault, like, you
18:44know, they have some pieces of linebacker.
18:46That said, the offense just does not have enough.
18:51And I know that Jeremiah Love is not a wide receiver, but he is an excellent pass catcher.
18:55And so even if they go into the season with the current group of receivers, if you add Jeremiah Love,
19:01I just think it gives you such, so much more dynamic ability on offense.
19:06And that's the one thing.
19:07If they went strictly on need, they are definitely taking, in my view, a running back, or they're either taking
19:13a lover or a receiver,
19:14because the need is clearly there.
19:16So that's my guess.
19:18The Downs one to me is just so fascinating, because I can imagine, again, that Durante Jones is going,
19:24this is the guy we need to take this defense up a notch.
19:28And Adam Peters looking at it going, but these other guys are also really, really good and better upside because
19:35of their athleticism.
19:37You answered my next question, but you didn't answer my first question, which was, of those three,
19:43which is, if I said just one made it to seven, which is the most likely to make it to
19:49seven and be available?
19:50Oh, I'm sorry.
19:51That's all right.
19:51I'd probably say that.
19:52I probably would say Downs.
19:54I mean, I know there's some talk about the Giants possibly picking the five, and maybe they do,
19:58but that's kind of the only team, whereas, like, Love and Styles, I don't know if they make it past
20:03the Titans at four,
20:04the Giants at five, does somebody trade up, at least for Styles, at six with the Browns.
20:10So I think Downs is probably the most likely to be there.
20:14All right.
20:14Talking to Ben Standing, you know, part of what you wrote about, too,
20:18in ranking and doing the consensus is you came up with what you had referred to earlier,
20:24which is this draft has 12 blue-chip players, and that's very low.
20:32Now, typically, the number doesn't go much higher than 20, but I think 12,
20:36didn't somebody tell you not that long ago that 12 was, like, the lowest it's been in several years
20:42in terms of the overall thought in terms of how many generational talents there are in this draft?
20:50Yeah, that is definitely a lower number than you anticipate.
20:53I mean, I know it sounds confusing that, wait, there's 32 teams.
20:56How are there not 32 players?
20:58Well, 32 players will be drafted as first-round picks.
21:01They just are not necessarily great at that way.
21:04And, again, this is, you know, whenever somebody says, oh, it's a weaker draft for whatever the reason,
21:09and then you go back three years later and that draft produces some good players,
21:14you'll hear people say, oh, I told you, they never know what they're talking about.
21:17It's all about projections.
21:18Nobody on the face of the earth knows how Fernando Mendoza will do or Jeremiah Love
21:23or any of these people.
21:24We've all assumed certain players would hit.
21:26They didn't, and then vice versa the other way.
21:28But it's just based on what level of certainty do you feel now,
21:32and the level of certainty here with most of these guys is not good enough to be picked in the
21:37top 10,
21:38but that's how it's going to roll.
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