00:00Are you optimistic that we're going to get some form of a break deal, a breakthrough or a deal agreed
00:06to between the two sides?
00:09Good morning, Jumana. Great to be with you.
00:12Well, I'm a glass half empty, glass half full kind of person on this.
00:17On the one hand, I think that both parties are starting from really, really different negotiating positions.
00:22I think that both parties entered the negotiations thinking that the other had accepted the vast majority of their demands,
00:29and that just simply isn't the case.
00:31I think Pakistan was very clever in the way that it pitched the ceasefire to both sides.
00:37But the glass half full side is, you know, I think that it would be incredibly costly for either side
00:42to resume the conflict at this point, even though they are far apart in their initial bargaining position.
00:48The reality is restarting the war would really draw the ire at the international community.
00:53And I don't think either side really wants to be blamed for being the one that pulled the trigger, so
00:59to speak.
01:00So it's going to force them to the table. And I think there are going to have to be some
01:05bitter pills that both sides are going to have to swallow.
01:08Otherwise, you know, the talks do run the risk of breaking down.
01:12And again, I think that, especially on the Iranian side, I don't think the Iranians want to be viewed as
01:17the ones who walked away from the ceasefire negotiation, because that runs the risk of getting more countries involved in
01:23the conflict if things do escalate.
01:25If, on the other hand, the United States were to be the one that walked out, I think that would
01:28play right into the hands of the Iranian regime.
01:34Yeah, but there's one new element that has emerged over the course of the six-week war, and that is
01:39Iran's chokehold or the grip that they have right now over the Strait of Hormuz.
01:45It's an unacceptable outcome for nations in the region and around the world as well.
01:52Do you think that when Iran projects into the future, they still want to be in a situation where they're
02:00exercising that sovereignty?
02:02Or do they see this as a bargaining chip so that they can extract more economic concessions out of the
02:08U.S.?
02:08What do you think the thinking is as far as Iran is concerned and the Straits?
02:15Well, I'm sure that within the regime, there is a variety of different opinions, but I think the mainstream opinion
02:20is that it is largely a bargaining chip.
02:22I mean, the reality is all Iran had to do here was demonstrate that it could close the Straits whenever
02:27it wants to.
02:29And that is a very powerful negotiating tool.
02:32Sure, they would love to receive reparations and get some tolls from the Straits, but I think it's largely a
02:40negotiating chip.
02:41But also, I think it's also worth noting that I think that the ships that they're trying to get past
02:47through Iranian waters at the present and avoid the widest lanes in the Straits,
02:51I think that that is largely driven by the fact that at some stage in the conflict, that area had
02:56been partially mined.
02:57And so I think that even if Iran was to allow for complete open navigation with no restrictions at this
03:03point,
03:04there would have to be significant demining operations in order to make it safe to use the entirety of the
03:09Straits.
03:09So I think it's going to be some time before we see a resumption of any sort of normal traffic
03:14in that respect.
03:16Yeah. One of the demands that the U.S. is insisting on is that Iran cease to fund their proxies
03:23around the region.
03:24And of course, the main one is Hezbollah.
03:26How likely is it, do you think, that the Iranians forsake Hezbollah in the interest of a broader deal with
03:35the United States?
03:39I think it's very highly likely.
03:41I think at the end of the day, if that is the item that neither side can agree to, I
03:47think that's a pill that Iran will have to swallow.
03:49I think there's a significant difference of opinion here, again, between the hardliners in the IRGC and the negotiating team
03:55that's coming in.
03:56And I think the hardliners are very much of the mind that they need to continue completely supporting Hezbollah.
04:04But ultimately, Iran has been suffering economically for years and very acutely for the last several months,
04:11hyperinflation and then domestic unrest and protests.
04:15And now the war destroying huge amounts of Iranian infrastructure.
04:19I think that there are many within the Iranian government and society that just want this over.
04:23And if that means at least bifurcating the conflict, maybe they continue to support Hezbollah indirectly in the future.
04:33But for now, they just sort of bifurcate the conflicts and let Israel and Lebanon figure out their solutions,
04:39which it does appear that there are initial indications that there will be direct talks between the Israelis and the
04:45Lebanese in the coming days.
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