00:00Now back to our top story, President Donald Trump has announced that he will pause a U.S.-led effort to
00:05help stranded ships exit the Strait of Hormuz to see if an agreement with Iran to end the war could
00:10be finalized.
00:11Trump's decision came a few hours after the U.S. said offensive operations against Iran are over as it shifts
00:18to protecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
00:22Operation Epic Fury is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation.
00:26I'm not going to, you know, we're not cheering for an additional situation to occur. We would prefer the path
00:33of peace.
00:36The back and forth highlights the bind in which Trump now finds himself.
00:40For more, we are joined by Stuart Livingstone-Wallace, our executive editor for MENA and Russia.
00:46Stuart, is it fair to say that the Trump administration is looking for a way to wind down this war?
00:51Yeah, and it's looking ever more desperate, I think, to do that because we've had just, it's been a completely
00:57crazy couple of days where we have this Project Freedom announced.
01:02And I think basically within 24 hours, they pull the plug on it when they see that this attempt to
01:06reopen Hormuz leads to this, you know, rather dramatic escalation.
01:11You know, it becomes very hostile, very kinetic, very quickly.
01:15And now the U.S. president says there are, you know, signs that they can come to a deal.
01:19That's not the first time he's said that.
01:21It's very hard to see what the path forward here is.
01:24And I don't think there was a lot of comfort yesterday coming from some of his officials where they were
01:28talking about, you know, we're going to stabilize the situation and then the world will take over because they need
01:33Hormuz more than we do.
01:34I mean, for me, what is most remarkable is actually hearing the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, say that they
01:40have achieved their objectives of Operation Epic Fury.
01:43And if you go back to what they spelled out, what those objectives were, I mean, they sort of moved
01:48and evolved over time.
01:49But essentially, it was around the nuclear file.
01:51It was around ballistic weapons.
01:53It was around the proxies in the region.
01:55None of that has been addressed.
01:57Right.
01:57I mean, it is fair to say that they have degraded Iran economically, militarily.
02:03But as far as we can tell, the regime is still there.
02:06You know, it may be different faces to the ones that we had in February.
02:09But nonetheless, it seems to be solidly in place.
02:12And I think the events of the last two days shows that certainly the IRGC is firmly in control of
02:17what it wants to do in Hormuz and is prepared to act very quickly and very dramatically.
02:22So the question is, what exactly does victory look like here?
02:24They're not entirely clear, as you say, they keep changing the narrative about what victory should look like.
02:29And a simple reopening of the straits and going back to where we were before the war started is not
02:35consistent with the reason they entered into the war in the first place.
02:39What is the situation now on the straits?
02:42Another deadlock?
02:43Yeah.
02:43I mean, it seems largely as before, which is that, you know, it is effectively shut.
02:48We did have a few ships go through on Monday, it would seem.
02:51But, you know, we're talking about two or three maybe.
02:54And at the last count, we've got well over 1,000 ships still stuck there, something like 22,000 seafarers.
03:00That doesn't look like it's reopening any time soon.
03:02But again, we'll see.
03:03This has been a series of surprises.
03:06We shouldn't rule out that maybe there can be a deal and we come to some sort of detente and
03:10Hormuz reopens.
03:11So, you know, you don't want to be too pessimistic, but it's looking quite unlikely any time soon.
03:15Yeah. Okay. So one thing that I want to bring up as well, the Iranian foreign minister is in Beijing
03:20today.
03:21He's meeting with his counterpart there.
03:23Is it right to expect maybe some form of China participation in this new diplomatic effort?
03:30Should things be successful in the next couple of weeks?
03:32Yeah, I mean, it can't be ruled out.
03:34You've got Trump going there himself in, what is it, a couple of weeks or thereabouts.
03:38May 15, 16, he's meeting with China.
03:40Yeah, exactly.
03:41And we know how dependent China is on imports of commodities, right, of everything.
03:45And Hormuz is absolutely critical for China.
03:47So there's a huge interest there from China.
03:49The question is, will it get more involved than it has been?
03:51Because so far, China's been taking a little bit of a backseat here, as far as we can tell.
03:56Maybe now this is the moment that it comes to the fore.
03:58But again, too early to say, I think we'll find out in the next two or three weeks just what
04:02role it is prepared to play.
04:03And there are plenty of pundits out there who are saying that Trump quite simply didn't want to escalate the
04:07situation before that meeting with Xi that's happening next week.
04:12Stuart, thank you so much.
04:13Stuart Livingstone-Wallace, our executive editor for MENA and Russia.
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