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00:00So we do know that ground forces are headed to the region.
00:03There are 3,500 Marines and sailors that arrived yesterday.
00:07There are Marines from San Diego that should arrive in the next week or so,
00:12and there's a headquarters unit coming from the 82nd Airborne.
00:15What we don't know is what their specific mission is.
00:18That number, about 7,000 total, is certainly not enough to do any sort of major combat operation,
00:23but it may be enough to do some kind of specific mission,
00:26and perhaps targeting one of the islands in the Strait of Hormuz.
00:30But either way, I think what we're seeing is a war that started out where the United States and Israel
00:35had the advantage
00:36in that they had the strongest weapons and the biggest capability.
00:40But the Iranians have adjusted by fighting asymmetrically.
00:43They're not depending on heavy weapons because they don't have them.
00:47Rather, they're using things like missiles and drones to conduct targeted strikes against U.S. allies and regional partners,
00:55such that they don't need to decisively win.
00:58They simply need to execute enough power to stay in place for another day.
01:03Whereas the United States and Israel are seeking to overwhelmingly defeat the Iranian military.
01:08So if you think about the war in Iraq, we saw this play out with IEDs,
01:13that the Iraqi insurgency stayed in the fight by launching IEDs and targeting troops.
01:18This time, that weapon of choice for the Iranians is largely drones.
01:23They're inexpensive.
01:24They're easy and cheap to make.
01:26And as long as Iran has enough capability to make a few more, they stay in the fight.
01:30Javanna, I want to get your perspective on how this dovetails with what we've heard yesterday.
01:35We were talking about Gulf states kind of wondering about the role that the U.S. is going to play
01:38going forward,
01:39surprised by and disappointed by and worried by the strikes that we've seen over the course of the last four
01:44weeks.
01:44Would this be welcomed by states in the Gulf?
01:50Look, chaos on their doorstep is never welcome.
01:53But at the same time, I think the rhetoric that's come through from Gulf leaders is that their patience is
01:57being tested.
01:58It is not unlimited.
01:59But I also think we need to make a distinction amongst the Gulf states.
02:02They don't act as a homogenous unit.
02:05And in the past couple of days, I think there's been a distinctive narrative that's emerging between, say,
02:10the likes of Qatar, who have reiterated that Iran will continue to be a neighbor of the country in the
02:17future
02:18and that their preferred solution would be a diplomatic solution,
02:21versus the likes of, say, the UAE, who are turning a lot more vocal about the need for a solution
02:28that is beyond just a ceasefire but a more sustainable political solution
02:32whereby Iran doesn't continue to pose what they see as a threat and economic terrorism
02:38over what they're doing with the Strait of Hormuz right now.
02:41So I think that's a very important point to emphasize.
02:44The second thing also is that if you think about where we were on Friday,
02:48there were talks about the potential for these negotiations,
02:51and President Trump indicated that perhaps the Iranian side were asking to talk to them.
02:56There's no indication in the last 24 hours that, indeed, such a meeting is going to take place.
03:01There is a meeting taking place in Pakistan today with foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia,
03:05of Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan, but notably nobody from Iran, nobody from the United States.
03:11So to your point, I think the focus this weekend has really been on, one,
03:15what you were just talking about, the mobilization of that marine expeditionary unit,
03:18the arrival of that unit to the region.
03:20And number two, we now have a new front in this war.
03:24Let's not forget that the Houthis have started striking at Israel.
03:29And that is not to be underplayed and understated because it is perhaps coincidental
03:37that Iran has fired up this other front at a time where more troops out of the U.S.
03:43are being sent to the region at the same time.
03:45Nancy, we had another unexpected player enter the chat this week,
03:49and that was Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy, who went to the region.
03:53He's the first president to visit the region during this conflict, not from the area,
03:57and has come up with, has left with defense cooperation agreements with Saudi, UAE, and Qatar
04:03because, speaking of asymmetric warfare, obviously Ukraine has been pretty successful
04:07in shooting down, pushing back against quadrants of Russian drones coming into its capital cities.
04:13And Zelenskyy has said, look, we know how to do this.
04:16Let us help you.
04:17Is the hope here that he will then get help financing and support in the war against Russia
04:22later on from these same countries?
04:25Yes.
04:25I mean, very simply, the Ukrainians have fought, in some cases, the very same drones in their
04:32own battlefield.
04:33And what they have is something very valued by the Gulf partners right now, which is the
04:38capability to combat that threat.
04:40And so I think the Ukrainian president is leveraging that skill that Ukraine has uniquely developed
04:47over the last four years to provide more of the kinds of weapons that they need to really
04:54have battlefield gains inside Ukraine.
04:58For the Gulf partners right now, they're spending, in some cases, several million dollars to shoot
05:03down drones that are worth about $30,000.
05:06Ukraine offers an opportunity to close that gap.
05:10But for Ukraine, the Gulf partners have weapons and capabilities that they don't have and are
05:15no longer receiving from the United States.
05:18And so I think President Zelenskyy is treating this as an opportunity to expand his ability
05:24to combat threats from Russia by using the skill that Ukraine uniquely brings to the fight
05:32that the Gulf partners are facing from Tehran.
05:35Javon, I want to ask you about the latest on the Strait of Hormuz.
05:37And we've seen a number of these kind of bilateral agreements between Iran and countries to which
05:42these ships are flagged, letting a few of them through.
05:44Secretary of State Marco Rubio addressed that in some comments on Friday that he gave on
05:47the tarmac.
05:48Let's take a listen to what he had to say.
05:49One of the immediate challenges we're going to face is in Iran that they decide that they
05:53want to set up a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz.
05:56Not only is this illegal, it's unacceptable.
05:57It's dangerous to the world.
05:59And it's important that the world have a plan to confront it.
06:02Talk a bit about this tolling system as the Secretary of State describes that we heard
06:06the president make remarks similar to that when he was speaking in Miami at this conference
06:09that was tied to the Saudi Public Investment Fund.
06:12Clearly a lot of irritation on the U.S.'s part here.
06:15But how much is it actually working?
06:17Are other countries seeing this as a means by which they can get oil and other supplies out
06:20of that strait?
06:23Well, certainly there have been a few exceptions.
06:25And I think the way we've described the Strait of Hormuz is it's effectively shut.
06:31But in reality, it's actually been effectively controlled by Iran.
06:35And they are making exceptions for certain Iranian-linked vessels.
06:39We reported last week on Bloomberg that they are submitting a draft bill in the Iranian parliament
06:45to propose setting up this toll and also reported that in some cases vessels were paying up to
06:51$2 million per voyage just to make the safe passage through.
06:55So they are making exceptions.
06:57I mean, even overnight we heard of Pakistan saying that they have managed to secure the
07:01passage of two vessels per day.
07:03President Trump last week in that very long cabinet meeting also said that the present that
07:08the Iranians gave him was the secure passage of 10 ships through the strait.
07:13So effectively, where we are right now, where things stand, is Iran are making certain exceptions
07:18so long as what they say, the vessels are linked to non-hostile countries or key buyers,
07:25like in the case of China and in Pakistan and other Southeast Asian countries.
07:29But clearly, this is a situation that is not acceptable to Gulf Arab states.
07:34It is not an acceptable outcome for pretty much any nation in the world for Iran to exercise
07:40the sovereignty. But from the Iranian perspective, it has emerged as a key point of leverage.
07:45And you don't have to go too far.
07:46The Speaker of the Parliament, Mr. Galliboff, who's been very vocal on social media, reposted
07:52a comment yesterday saying that the U.S.'s war objectives have now shifted towards solely
07:57reopening the strait of Hormus.
07:59Of course, that's far-fetched rhetoric.
08:01But I think it does really just underscore how much leverage they think they have over
08:06that key choke point on energy flows and global supply flows.
08:10And they're not going to let it up easily.
08:12And it has become a focal point also heading into what could be discussions between the
08:18two sides.
08:19They're insisting that they have to maintain sovereignty over it.
08:22Nancy, I want to ask you, because you heard Jumana talking earlier about how the GCC countries
08:26are not a monolith.
08:28And some are dealing with this separate ways.
08:30We've seen Saudi and UAE be a little bit more out front.
08:33There is reporting that they want the U.S. to continue with this, to go after Iran and
08:37essentially finish the job.
08:38Some of the other countries are taking a different approach.
08:40But one of the things I thought that was interesting, at that same forum David was just talking
08:44about on Friday, President Trump talked about the Abraham Accords and said to the room
08:49that, oh, I would really like to get Saudi Arabia back into the Abraham Accords.
08:53Those were those agreements by which Middle Eastern nations were normalizing diplomatic relations
08:57with the U.S.
08:59Saudi was supposed to be next in that list.
09:01Given everything that has happened between Israel and Gaza and now this conflict, is that
09:05at all possible at this point?
09:07Do you think normalization will continue or do you think that's untenable given the politics
09:10of this moment?
09:12I think Saudi Arabia has a more immediate concern, which is their neighbor could not only survive
09:19as a regime, but become more hostile to Saudi Arabia, to its economic interests, to its security
09:26for a sustained period of time.
09:28And so I think if you're Saudi Arabia right now, the concern is immediate and about security.
09:35What happens if the war ends in such a way in which the regime is still in power?
09:39Or conversely, if it goes on for months in some sort of stalemate or in some sort of low-intensity
09:46conflict for a sustained period of time?
09:49So I think what Saudi Arabia is looking at potentially is ways to protect itself from future threats
09:55from Iran rather than looking for a reset in terms of its relationship with Israel broadly.
10:03Now, that doesn't mean that it's off the table entirely, but I think right now the war has
10:08shifted the security state of Saudi Arabia.
10:11It has shifted its economic power.
10:14And those things have to be addressed with first before we talk about something along the
10:20lines of the Abraham Accords.
10:22Jamana, very quickly, we have about a minute left.
10:23You mentioned the Houthis getting involved in this conflict.
10:26And there's been this kind of tenuous truce between them and the Saudis now for several years.
10:30Any indication that's likely to fray?
10:32How likely is that to stay in place and hold?
10:36I think, as you say, it's tenuous.
10:38But let me just remind viewers that a truce was actually agreed to between Saudi Arabia
10:43and the Houthis back in 2022.
10:45Another truce was also agreed between the U.S. and Houthis, I should say, back in 2025.
10:51And the Houthis have actually refrained from attacking ships on Bab al-Mandeb and on the Red
10:56Sea since the Gaza-Israel ceasefire of October 2025.
10:59Now, the question is, obviously, given they've now entered back into the war in solidarity
11:05with Iran, they are saying that they're just going to be targeting their strikes at Israel.
11:11The big question is whether they're going to look to disrupt shipping again.
11:14For the time being, there are no signs of that happening.
11:17And actually, a spokesperson for Houthi yesterday, as reported by Al Jazeera, suggested that they
11:21will only be targeting Israel in this instance and plan to stick to the truce with the U.S.
11:27But again, we have to see how this all plays out and whether if ground combat involvement
11:32would actually incentivize them to start acting and disrupting shipping on the Red Sea.
11:37Certainly a new chapter.
11:38Certainly a new chapter.
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