00:00The question that I've been asking, and I think everyone is asking today, is whether this ceasefire can actually lead
00:07to a durable peace resolution.
00:09What's your view?
00:11Well, let's just say that most of us are breathing a huge sigh of relief that the guns have been
00:21put down at least for a while.
00:23But you realize that this ceasefire has been in existence for less than four hours.
00:32And whether this ceasefire remains intact without violations, I'm significantly concerned about information that I have recently received, that there
00:45are still missile attacks on Bahrain.
00:48And this is during the, right now, the pendency of this ceasefire.
00:55But the hope, I think, for most is that during this two-week lull in hostilities, both sides will look
01:06to take advantage of the situation in order to come to some sort of agreement.
01:16Of course, no agreement is going to be acceptable, completely acceptable to both sides.
01:24But it's perhaps an opportunity, a step in the right direction.
01:28But right now, it is so early in order to interpret the implications of the ceasefire and what's going to
01:37happen.
01:41What about the significant amount of military assets that the U.S. has accumulated in the region, the aircraft carrier
01:49that is here, the other one that is on the way, the thousands of Marines that have been deployed to
01:55the region?
01:56Do you expect them to stay here for as long as the ceasefire is in place the next couple of
02:01weeks?
02:02A quick answer, and I'm going to say it's a relatively easy one, yes.
02:07There would be no movement and no direction.
02:11Of course, I'm speculating.
02:13I'm no longer within the Pentagon establishment.
02:17But on the other hand, it takes a significant amount of energy, people, money to move that size of an
02:26armada from the United States.
02:29Certainly, we brought a couple of those marine amphibious ships from as far away as the waters surrounding Taiwan.
02:39And so for the United States, it's my belief, grounded in experience, that the U.S. will retain and maintain
02:49those military assets, essentially their marking time.
02:58You know, let's go back to the military objectives that the U.S. were looking to achieve throughout the course
03:06of this conflict.
03:07And top of mind, and this is something that President Trump has reiterated time and time again, they want to
03:12ensure that Iran don't go on to develop a nuclear weapon.
03:16Can they definitively say that they've achieved that objective in the absence of obtaining that enriched uranium stockpile?
03:26Iran is thought to be sitting on 400 kilos plus worth.
03:30You know, we reach back, I'd like to reach back to June, June 12th, last year, when both Israel and
03:39the United States struck the uranium enrichment facilities at Istafan and Fundal.
03:46And immediately after what we considered successful attacks, we employed the big bunker buster bombs, there was a proclamation, a
03:59statement that it looked to us as if a significant amount of uranium nuclear capability had been destroyed.
04:11And then, lo and behold, moved forward now eight, nine months, and we're still focused on that same objective.
04:20There is information, some substantiated, some not, that a significant portion of that nuclear stockpile remains buried someplace in those
04:36locations that I've just outlined, described.
04:39And that, from our perspective, the objective of completely eradicating from this time forward the Iranian ability to develop nuclear
04:51weapons and to employ them has not yet been achieved.
04:54So that's why, when you look at least the immediately published demands, the ceasefire demands from the United States, there's
05:05continued emphasis.
05:06Number one, by the way, is a degradation of Iranian nuclear capability.
05:13Yeah.
05:15You know, I just wonder whether out of this and, you know, you yourself and others have mentioned that sort
05:22of the goalposts shifted the longer the war went on for.
05:26And today, Iran are painting a picture of victory because from the outset for the regime, as long as they
05:33didn't disintegrate, as long as there was no regime collapse, they were going to frame that as a victory.
05:38What do you think the face of Iran looks like as a regional and a global actor now, 40 days
05:50on, after this war, with this new point of leverage that they've gained, which is the Strait of Hormuz?
05:56There's no question that the number one success, which, frankly, we should have anticipated, is Iranian control, its throttling of
06:11the Straits of Hormuz.
06:12That's truly what we call, in my trade, success in an asymmetric campaign.
06:21Iran did not, could not really prevail in the missile contest between itself and the United States.
06:29Certainly, there have been attacks into Israel, the Gulf states, even further.
06:35But at this point, Iran, the regime, to the extent of our knowledge, still retains power.
06:46It has the Straits of Hormuz.
06:49And with all that put together, and with its ideological fervor, it has come forth and proclaimed to the world
06:57that it has beaten, to use this inappropriate reference, big Satan, and perhaps little Satan as well.
07:06If you understand those references, of course, to the United States and to Israel.
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