00:00President Donald Trump struck a defiant tone on social media and to reporters threatening
00:04to hit Iran even harder if they don't agree to a U.S. plan fast.
00:11They trifled with us today.
00:13We blew them away.
00:15They trifled.
00:16They call that a trifle.
00:17I'll let you know when there's no ceasefire.
00:19You won't have to know.
00:20If there's no ceasefire, you're not going to have to know.
00:22You're just going to have to look at one big glow coming out of Iran.
00:26And they better sign their agreement fast.
00:30Iran's position is clear.
00:32The only viable solution in the Strait of Hormuz is a permanent end to the war, the lifting
00:40of maritime blockade, and the restoration of normal passage.
00:46Nested, the U.S. is pushing a flawed politically motivated draft resolution under the pretext
00:52of freedom of navigation to advance its political agenda and legitimize on lawful actions, not
00:59to resolve the crisis.
01:04This latest round of attacks comes as Washington waits for a response from Tehran on its MOU.
01:10And for more, joining us now is Stuart Livingstone-Wallace, our executive editor for MENA and Russia.
01:15So some developments on the street overnight.
01:17Test of the ceasefire once again.
01:20Yeah, although apparently not.
01:21Apparently the ceasefire is holding, which is really hard to reconcile with what we saw overnight.
01:24You know, we had firing on three destroyers, return fire on multiple launch sites, command and control centers.
01:32We don't know quite the full extent of it.
01:33But, you know, it's stretching the definition of a ceasefire.
01:37But I think as far as markets are concerned, the U.S. president is characterizing that as the ceasefire is
01:42holding.
01:43Then it's holding.
01:43Yeah, it's looking a little prickly, though.
01:45What about this MOU and the Iranian response?
01:48Are we still expecting to hear something in the coming days?
01:51Yeah, I mean, we're supposed to be getting a response today.
01:54That was based on what one of our sources told us on Wednesday.
01:58Clearly there's no firm deadline here for them to respond.
02:00But you would expect something around this time.
02:02I would say, again, though, the noises coming from Iran, both from what we just heard there, but also from
02:07official and semi-official news sources in Iran is not terribly positive.
02:11So maybe what we get back is a counterproposal.
02:14We'll see.
02:14Yeah, you know, Stuart, we hear, you know, every day I come in and I talk about markets.
02:19And for most days we see the S&P, Nasdaq making high after high.
02:23It really does feel like equity markets are completely brushing off the real potential, potential once again for resumption of
02:32hostilities.
02:33What what are what is the assessment of, you know, where we could go from here and its potential impact
02:40on some of these key markets that are reacting to it?
02:43Oil obviously a different case to equity markets.
02:45Yeah. So, I mean, let's start with equities.
02:47I mean, equities broadly seems to be saying everything is fine.
02:50Everything will be fine.
02:51We've added something like twelve trillion dollars worth of market cap to the global index over the last month or
02:56thereabouts after a very brief correction in March.
02:59And then there's a disconnect between that and what you're seeing in the commodity markets.
03:03So oil has gone from a gentle contango before the war.
03:06That is fairly plentiful supply to basically a backwardation curve that looks like the north face of the Eiger, you
03:12know, deep distress.
03:13And then you look at the betting markets or the prediction markets, I should say.
03:18Polymarket at the moment is factoring in something like a 30 percent chance of a resolution this month.
03:23Now, that's up from what it was a week ago, but not exactly a resounding vote of confidence.
03:28And you really have to go to the end of this year.
03:30That is December 2026 before you start getting in the sort of the 70s in terms of a deal being
03:35done.
03:35So there's a huge divergence of opinion there.
03:38.
03:38.
03:38.
Comments