00:00We are entering into day seven of the Iran war, and perhaps in retrospect, it was not a surprise
00:06that we are in a state of war, given the huge military buildup that the U.S. had accumulated
00:12in the region. But I think most people are surprised at how quickly things have escalated
00:17and how many countries have been drawn into the conflict. How do you view this moment for the
00:23Middle East? Well, what we're watching now is a race for and against time, both by the United
00:31States, Israel, and by Iran. The Iranian calculus is that by expanding the war, by escalating the war
00:40as dramatically as it has to now 10 or 11 countries as remote as Cyprus, Turkey, Oman, Azerbaijan,
00:50it can bring pressure upon the United States to bring this conflict to a close. The United States
00:58and Israel are working to remove, dramatically mitigate the pressure that Iran is bringing to
01:05bear, first and foremost on the Gulf states and on Israel, through attacking the production facilities,
01:13storage facilities, launch sites for the ballistic missile force, as well as for drones. Now, as
01:19you've heard from Admiral Cooper, the CENTCOM commander, only a few hours ago, that effort
01:25is proceeding very well, but Iran still possesses a capacity to inflict harm. We believe that over time,
01:33the U.S. and Israel can indeed mitigate that Iranian threat. The question is, what then? Does the Iranian
01:42regime understand the position that it's in or understanding it show any willingness to yield on
01:51any of the points, the nuclear program, missile program, other aspects of its behavior, which are
01:57objectionable, not just to the U.S., to Israel, but to many of our Gulf partners, most of our Gulf
02:02partners? And that's a question we can't answer at this point.
02:07Yeah. President Trump has signaled that he would be willing to speak to new leadership so long as it
02:14is more open to the negotiating stance that the U.S. are putting on the table. How likely is that
02:24as an
02:25outcome, do you think, given there has been so much talk about the necessity to remove the Islamic
02:31Republic regime? Well, I think what regime change, as opposed to changes in behaviors or policies,
02:41projection of threat outside of Iran by the regime, that's a complex issue. But the short answer to
02:47your question is, for the moment, right now, I don't assess the Iranian regime, which remains
02:54quite intact, as willing to make the kinds of meaningful concessions necessary
03:00to bring this conflict to a close. What another few days, another week may bring, that's a very
03:08different question.
03:12So the other day, NATO fired down a ballistic missile near Turkey. Now, Iran are maintaining
03:20that they did not fire that missile. It was not directed towards Turkey. What are the chances that
03:27Turkey actually ends up getting involved in this war as well, whether they want to or don't want to?
03:32I think President Erdogan has made very clear that he does not wish to see Turkey made a target or
03:41be
03:41considered as a belligerent in this campaign. And that's for reasons of Turkey's own security, the
03:49integrity of its economics. However, if Iran were to continue to launch attacks, that is something which
03:58I don't believe President Erdogan or those of us who are defending Turkey could ignore. Look, the claim that
04:07the attacks on Azerbaijan, the enclave of Azerbaijan within Armenian territory, Oman were accidents or
04:20somehow false flag operations really doesn't hold true.
04:27So we and other outlets have reported that both the US and Israel have started speaking to and
04:34recruiting Kurdish forces to fight against the Iranian militarily and militarily and to prepare them for
04:43the possibility of an uprising. What would this do, do you think, to the US-Turkey relationships? Because for so
04:50long, obviously, the Turkish side have tried very hard to suppress the possibility of a Kurdish uprising and in the
05:00east.
05:02Well, I can't comment on these reports, which so far are coming out of the media. What I can say
05:09is this.
05:10Turkey would be quite concerned at the emergence in Iran, at points adjacent to the Turkish border,
05:18of a very militant, fragmented, at times given the composition of Kurdish militias, plural,
05:28quite radical forces, many of which have been allied with Al-Qaeda and jihadist groups in the past.
05:33Turkey would be concerned at such a phenomenon. But I have a broader concern, which is the consequences
05:39of external forces, should they be doing it, motivating this mix of militias who have their own
05:49self-interests in creating chaos within Iran. It's a matter of be careful what you wish for.
05:56If chaos is the outcome, if violence is the outcome directed primarily at the Kurdish ethnic population of Iran,
06:05what's the advantage? What's the gain there? I think this is something that needs to be looked at extremely carefully.
06:14Mr. Ambassador, I know you were also in Lebanon for a few years under both the Clinton and Bush administrations.
06:22I want to ask you your thoughts on what is going on there and the fact that Hezbollah
06:28fired that missile across into northern Israel, began and opened up a new front in the war. And
06:35right now what we are seeing is IDF are retaliating quite forcefully. Where do you see this going for Lebanon?
06:44Let's make the first point. This was an unnecessary opening of a combat front. Israel had made very clear
06:53formally to the government of Lebanon that if Israel was not attacked from Lebanon, Israel would not take
07:00the first strike. Hezbollah, perhaps under the influence of the IRGC in Lebanon, took the step which
07:11which I would regard as absolutely suicidal from any rational standard of self-interest on the part of Hezbollah to
07:19fire three
07:20rockets, two of which landed in an open field, one of which was intercepted. In return, the current conflict has
07:27been
07:27brought back upon Lebanon. I think we can all of us recognize, acknowledge and offer respect to the government of
07:36Lebanon's a unanimous decision to take steps to make illegal the possession of weapons by Hezbollah to
07:46arrest IRGC officers who the media reporting are fleeing Lebanon now. Hezbollah brought this upon itself.
07:55Sadly, in the course of bringing this upon itself, they also bring it upon the innocent people of Lebanon.
08:02But they asked for this. They're getting it.
08:06So,
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