00:00Hi again, everyone. It's now 5 o'clock in New York.
00:02You have to excuse us if this is starting to sound like the same old story,
00:06but in state after state, red district after red district,
00:10Democrats are once again on the cutting edge of what appears to be a political sea change
00:15in the United States of America.
00:17Keep this in mind next time you hear Donald Trump.
00:19Democrats see signs of momentum ahead of midterms.
00:23This is big breaking news right here.
00:26Publicly plotting to rig the midterm elections.
00:28But first, those results in solidly purple Wisconsin,
00:32which went for Donald Trump a year and a half ago.
00:34The contest for that state Supreme Court resulted in what one former Republican strategist
00:39described to Politico as a, quote, wow moment.
00:42Although officially a nonpartisan race, the candidate backed by Democrats
00:46defeated her counterpart, the one backed by the Republicans,
00:50by a whopping 20 points with winning.
00:5320 points. You can see 20 whopping points right here.
00:56Winner is Chris Taylor and difference is 305,000 votes.
01:02Margins in counties Trump didn't even worry about in 2024.
01:07Then 1,000 miles south in Georgia, a different sort of result,
01:11but energizing for Republicans all the same.
01:13What am I in Georgia?
01:28This is not a big win.
01:32You can see the difference right here.
01:34Only 8,747.
01:37Damn.
01:37So happened there last night.
01:39New York Times writes it like this, quote,
01:41The shift is a political harbinger for Republicans in this year's midterm elections.
01:45Nearly two dozen House Republicans won their 2024 races by 10 points or less.
01:51The Senate map includes seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas that could be in play.
01:56Well, well, what are your thoughts on all this happening?
01:59A shift of change?
02:00Let me know in the comments.
02:01If the Democratic advantage proves to be durable through November,
02:05Georgia Democrats also saw the outcome as a boost for Senator John Ossoff,
02:09who is seeking re-election this fall.
02:12But wait, there's more.
02:14Just yesterday, the Cook Political Report,
02:16one of, if not the most respected weather vanes for these sorts of analyses,
02:22shifted five House races in the direction...
02:24Five House races.
02:25Oh, damn.
02:26Five races shift towards Dems.
02:28One towards GOP.
02:30...of Democrats compared to just one that moved the other way.
02:33The context of that decision isn't exactly a closely held secret.
02:37Poll after poll after poll after poll has shown that people are upset about all sorts of things.
02:43Democrats are signs of momentum ahead of victims.
02:45The gas prices, the cost of living, the wars they did not ask for.
02:48Yeah, yeah, yeah, never.
02:49The wars they specifically voted against when they chose Trump.
02:52That's why the party of Trump is going down like that.
02:55So, again, for all the time and money and effort that goes into politics,
02:58as complicated as the consultants want to make it seem,
03:02in the end, it comes down to what people feel and what they want.
03:05And right now, their gut appears to be telling them it is time for something other than Trump.
03:11Yeah, everyone is like that.
03:13That 87% of people voted, they want to change the regime.
03:17I mean, not a regime, but Democratic people who is Trump right now
03:21and not to be able to the president of the United States of America.
03:26That is where we begin the hour.
03:28Political analyst, host of the Bulwark podcast, Tim Miller is here.
03:31Also joining us, former senior advisor to President Biden and Vice President Harris,
03:36the former mayor of New Orleans, Mitch Landrieu is back.
03:38He's now the co-chair of the American Bridge 21st Century,
03:42plus Democratic strategist and Columbia University professor,
03:45political analyst, our friend Basil Smigel is here as well.
03:49Mitch, I start with you.
03:50Your thoughts on last night?
03:53Who?
03:54All right, let's do this.
03:57Where are you?
03:57Can you hear us?
03:59Yeah.
04:00What do you think about last night?
04:03Well, I think that it's evidence again that the American people think that Donald Trump
04:07is losing his focus and may very well have lost his mind.
04:11Damn.
04:11They wanted him to do a couple of things when he got elected,
04:16which was to stay out of foreign wars.
04:18Yes, Donald Trump said,
04:19if I was a, I will become a president.
04:21There is no war in the world.
04:24And you see, there are so many wars.
04:26You're not counting them in one hand.
04:28Few of them.
04:30Reduce costs.
04:30And what he's decided to do is threaten to blow up an entire civilization
04:34and stop focusing on rising costs.
04:37So, in other words, he's focused on bombs and ballrooms.
04:42And not on helping people with their gas prices, their homes, and their day-to-day living.
04:45And they have demonstrated time and time again for the last year now
04:49in almost every election that's been held in the country
04:51that they think the country has gone in the wrong direction.
04:54And that is a trend.
04:55Every time.
04:56It is trend.
04:57It's similar to exactly what has happened in the last 200 or so races
05:01in the last nine months.
05:03Mitch, what do you think is propelling the size of the margins?
05:09I mean, this isn't just, I thought things would get cheaper,
05:11they got more expensive, so I'm pissed.
05:13Very often.
05:14This is a, like, vomiting up whatever they once guzzled in
05:18about Donald Trump and Trumpism.
05:20This is very big and bad things.
05:23Well, I think that two things happening at once,
05:26and they're equally important.
05:27The key number that I've been looking at as you talk to the midterms
05:30is 14 points, a 14-point swing.
05:33And here's why.
05:35There are four states that Trump won by 13 points, give or take.
05:39It's Texas, it's Alaska, it's Iowa.
05:44And it's a state people don't talk about that much anymore.
05:45Florida.
05:46This is a big shift happening.
05:48There's a political sea change.
05:50They are talking about this thing.
05:52And we have some other aspects of it as well.
05:56And not in this one, I guess.
06:02...respection that becomes message when it should be tactic.
06:05And so I respect what you're doing.
06:09This is what it is, guys.
06:11Let me know what are your thoughts, Sento?
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