00:0088, 89. That's not a change-up. That's Shawn Minaya's fastball right now. And in today's game, that number matters,
00:09because when your fastball starts dropping, it raises a bigger question. Is this just a slow start, or something the
00:16Mets should actually be worried about?
00:26Shawn Minaya's velocity has become one of the biggest storylines for the Mets in the early part of their 2026
00:31season. In a recent outing, Minaya's fastball was sitting around 88 to 89 miles per hour. Now, when the majors
00:37today, that's a red flag. But the question is, how big of a red flag is it? So, to help
00:42me answer that question and much more, I spoke with PitcherList founder Nick Pollock.
00:47So, Nick, when you see a drop in velocity like we've seen with Shawn Minaya, what's the first thing that
00:53you look for, either with the film or the data, when you look at how Minaya's pitching right now?
00:58Yeah, it's actually, when you see drops in velocity, the first thing you've got to do is understand the context
01:04of which they're having drop velocity. Is it because it was a really cold day that day? Is it because
01:09they don't have the stamina, and they were throwing higher velocity early on, and then they got gassed, and all
01:16of a sudden it dropped.
01:16It drops down and drops down. And most of the time, though, it's a drop in velocity that they can't
01:24get out of. And this is the case right now with Shawn Minaya, who is underneath the 90 miles per
01:29hour.
01:29He did go up to 91 in his most recent outing on Thursday night. But it is scary at the
01:37moment. And the first thing I generally do look to, outside of, say, dropping the arm angle, because that means
01:42that they have a weakness in their body,
01:44and they're not getting their arm high enough because of just strength, and there's something they're compensating for, is just,
01:49what are the quotes? What is the team doing? What is Minaya saying? What are the pitching staff saying? What
01:55changes are being made? And the quotes we have so far are not good.
01:59This isn't just about one game. It's a trend. Year after year, the velocity has been dropping. And now, for
02:06the first time, he's dipped below 90. So why is that such a big deal?
02:11Well, last season, only five starters in baseball averaged under 90 miles per hour. Their combined ERA, 4.80. And
02:19most of them, they aren't even in rotations anymore for the 2026 season.
02:25How difficult is it to pitch with a fastball in the high 80s today in the major league? How difficult
02:32is it to be successful with rolling and topping out at 88, 89 miles per hour? How difficult is that,
02:38Nick?
02:38I have this community, and where I talk to every day about what's going on, and I actually saw this
02:43question. I was like, you know what, guys? Can anyone, anyone think of a pitcher in the majors right now
02:48who is this successful starter that throws under 90 miles per hour?
02:54We didn't have an answer. We have some, like, around 90 miles per hour. We do see what I call
03:00a swatch, a south ball with a tight changeup, who can get by with, like, 90, 91.
03:06But we're seeing guys like Bailey Ober, who was 92, and then he dropped to 90, 91. Now he's under
03:1190, and he's looking terrible.
03:13We have Kyle Hendricks out of the league now. He was the best example I could think of at having
03:18some success at 87.
03:20We have Rich Hill, also, who was doing that kind of thing. Most of the time, it's a lefty that
03:25is very crafty, like Ryan Yarbrough or Cooper Criswell.
03:30But, no, you generally don't see it, especially these days where guys are tuned to about 94 miles per hour,
03:36and if they see that decline in velocity without absurd extension, that would be, like, 7.6 or 7.5.
03:43Something like Joey Cantillo, who doesn't throw hard with his foreseeing, but he gets so much closer to the plate
03:49with that extension that he makes up for it.
03:51But with Sean Minaya, it's not the case. It is 7 feet, but it's not enough to really get over
03:58that hump.
03:58So, yeah, it's not a common thing. You would have to have the best command. You would have to have
04:05a wide pitch mix to really compensate for that.
04:08Now, there are exceptions, but those pitchers are the exception, not the rule.
04:13And if Minaya is going to live in that range, he has to be near perfect in other areas.
04:19And then there's another layer to this story, his role.
04:23Since spring training, Minaya has been moving between roles and has started the 2026 season out of the pen with
04:29the plan to build him up towards returning to the rotation.
04:32And that change in role can impact everything from routine to arm strength to velocity.
04:39There's some school of thought that when you look at his lagging velocity, right, that it could be role-related
04:45for Sean Minaya.
04:46How much of it could it be role-related in the fact that you even mentioned he's not a starter
04:51anymore, is coming out of the pen, his role has switched?
04:55And then how much of all of that, with the role switching, the dip in velocity, how much of that
05:00should concern the Mets right now?
05:02Well, what's interesting is we're seeing Minaya not as a starter, but as a reliever.
05:06And traditionally, when you're pitching in relief, you get a velocity bump.
05:11You throw harder.
05:12It makes all the sense in the world.
05:13Instead of having to have extra gas in the tank for the fifth and sixth inning, you're just out there
05:19for an inning or two.
05:20I wouldn't expect Minaya, if he was a starter, to be anywhere close to this.
05:23I would say he'd probably be closer to 88 if he was actually in that starting role.
05:27And I would also consider that the Mets know this.
05:32So, now we get to the real question.
05:35Is this something to worry about or just something to watch?
05:39The concern is simple.
05:41Less velocity means less margin for error.
05:43And in today's game, that can lead to more contact and more damage.
05:48But there's another side to this.
05:50It is early, and Minaya has expressed confidence that his velocity will return.
05:54So, with a couple of appearances under his belt this season, this isn't panic time.
05:59But it's not a nothing burger either.
06:01It's something.
06:02And the Mets and their fans should be watching very closely.
06:06Because if the velocity comes back, Sean Minaya can still be a valuable piece of this staff.
06:11But if it doesn't, then this could become a much bigger issue.
06:15So, for now, it's not time just yet to ring the alarm.
06:19But it definitely is time to pay attention.
06:22So, let's get started.
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