- 15 hours ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. Temperatures are set to rise into Wednesday bringing potentially record-breaking early April heat, but how long will it last and does it count as a heatwave. We also take look around the globe as Tropical cyclone Maila and Vaianu are also set to bring heavy rain to parts of the Pacific this week. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Annie Shuttleworth.
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00:00We've already had the warmest day of the year so far and we're in the midst of some potentially
00:05notable early April heat. But how long will this heat last and what's in store for the
00:11rest of this week? Well, welcome to this week's Deep Dive. I'm Annie Shuttleworth, presenter
00:16and meteorologist here at the Met Office. And this week we'll be taking a closer look
00:20at the heat at the moment, the sunshine, how long that will last. We'll also have a little
00:25look at some cyclones going on elsewhere in the globe and also a look back at Storm
00:31Dave from the Easter weekend. If you've not joined us for one of these Deep Dives, welcome.
00:36Please make sure you subscribe and like and share this video with anyone else you think
00:41might be interested. So we're looking at the heat today. But before then, we'll take a look
00:45back at Storm Dave. It brought a pretty unsettled start to the Easter bank holiday weekend. And
00:52in the satellite image behind me here, we can look at how Storm Dave developed throughout
00:57the weekend. So it started to develop on the Good Friday out to the southwest of the UK
01:04and then pushed across northwestern parts of the UK, most notably parts of Northern Ireland
01:12as well as Northern England, North Wales as well. We saw gusts of 93 knots across parts of the
01:19far north of North Wales. Capel Keurig had 93 miles per hour, which is the highest gusts recorded on
01:28the Saturday of the Easter weekend. Obviously, the Easter weekend does fall at different points
01:33between March and April, but it was the windiest Easter Saturday on record in the UK with that 93
01:40miles per hour. But then the Easter weekend got progressively more settled. We've started to drag
01:46in more of a southerly wind that's brought that warmth, the high pressure, that sunshine for many
01:52of us. So it has become progressively more settled. As I said, we've already had the highest temperature
01:59of the year so far, beating the temperatures we saw on the 31st of March. We've seen so far
02:0822.4 degrees across parts of Wales on today and temperatures could reach 25 degrees. And into
02:18Wednesday, we could see temperatures of 26, possibly 27 degrees. So that heat is expected to build into
02:26Wednesday. Why is that happening? Well, this is the big picture. We've got the jet stream on here
02:31and the pressure pattern. Now, although we've got quite an active jet stream out across more
02:37western areas of the Atlantic, actually closer to the UK, it's quite an amplified picture. You can see
02:42it diving down to the south, helping to develop this area of low pressure down to the south of the
02:47UK,
02:47bringing some unsettled weather to parts of Portugal as well as Morocco. And then it amplifies up around to
02:53the north of the UK. And that means we've got high pressure actually dominating our weather out to
02:58more eastern areas. And around that high pressure, we've got a southerly wind coming up from the near
03:04continent, which is starting to warm up at this time of year. The land is starting to warm up.
03:09Days are now longer than nights. The sea is still pretty cold. You will have noticed that if you
03:13were headed to the coast on the weekend. But daytime temperatures across the land starting to build up.
03:18And we've also got coming up with this southerly wind, quite warm air. So it's not just
03:24the daytime sunshine getting that heat going. It's the warmth of the air coming up from the tropics,
03:31in fact. Now it's this plume here that kind of pushes up across the UK through Tuesday and Wednesday
03:38that's developing that peak of the heat. And you can see that it's focused more across more western
03:45areas through Tuesday. But then as that jet stream, that more mobile part of the jet stream starts to
03:51push in from the west. That heat is pushed over to more eastern areas. So it's more eastern parts of
03:56the UK towards London and the southeast that will see the higher temperatures through Wednesday. And
04:02that's where we could potentially see that 26 or 27 degrees. But then things do change. That heat is
04:08not going to last all that long. We will see a few days of fine sunny weather. But there is
04:13a change on
04:13the way from Thursday onwards. You can see not only colder air, but more unsettled air coming in. So
04:19there will be an increase in rain. Colder nights as well and some windy days as well.
04:26And then looking ahead to the weekend, while this area of low pressure develops down to the southwest
04:30of the UK, quite tightly packed isobars around this area of low pressure. Potential for a fairly windy
04:37spell. Nothing quite like what we saw over the weekend with Storm Dave, but potentially for parts of Northern
04:42Ireland and Scotland quite a windy Friday night into Saturday. We'll look at more details on that in
04:50just a moment. But before then, let's look at that heat. So as I mentioned, through Wednesday
04:58through Wednesday afternoon, we've got this cold front pushing in from the north and west. So that's
05:06going to introduce some colder air, some cloudier weather up to the northwest. But it's eastern areas
05:11where we could start to see temperatures rising. So the maximum temperatures through this week will
05:17likely peak on Wednesday. So through Tuesday, we've got highs of up to 25 degrees. Places like the north,
05:27North Devon, North Wales, North Devon also seeing the low 20s as well. And it's because we've got the
05:34fern effect, which if you've not heard of it, it means that the air rise, the air cools at a
05:39different
05:39rate to what it does when it comes over mountains. So that change in heating and cooling as the air
05:47rises
05:47and sinks means that the temperatures increase on the other side of the mountain compared to the wind
05:53direction. We've got videos of that on our YouTube channel. You should check out if you want to know more
05:57details on that. So it's an effect that often brings those high temperatures in quite localised places.
06:02So the north coast of Wales, North Devon, we often see it on the Moray coast as well,
06:08in the northeast of Scotland as well. So they could see 22 degrees up there through this afternoon too.
06:15So those are the sorts of places that are going to see the highest temperatures through today.
06:18into Wednesday, it's more parts of the southeast. So you see 24 degrees coming up as a maximum
06:27temperature here for London. It's quite likely we'll see temperatures closer to 26 for these areas.
06:34And actually for many areas of central England, temperatures in the 20s, 21 degrees across the
06:42south coast is starting to get cooler though across the northwest. And then on Thursday,
06:49quite a notable change. There could be a 10 degree difference in the maximum temperature between
06:55between Wednesday and Thursday for parts of western areas of the UK, particularly down in the southwest
07:01where I am here in Met Office HQ. But I think actually the southeast will hold on to that heat
07:06for
07:07one more day into Thursday. Now, there's a few headlines going around that heat wave is coming
07:12or in the midst of a heat wave. This is not technically a heat wave for those who need a
07:17reminder on a heat wave definition. Well, there's a threshold temperature for all different regions of
07:23the UK. There's anywhere between 24 degrees and 27 degrees. And you need temperatures to be above the
07:30threshold for three consecutive days. And we are not going to see temperatures widely above the
07:37threshold for three consecutive days. So we're not expecting any heat wave thresholds to be met.
07:42Having said that, though, it is a fairly notable spell of warm weather. Let's take a closer look at
07:49those highs on Wednesday because it's Wednesday's high temperature that could bring us the most
07:55notable, the most notable highs. So I'm just going to click around. This is the temperatures through
08:01the week that show you that peak. So we've got the maximum temperature on the top here and the minimum
08:08temperature on the bottom. It's worth noting as well that overnight temps can be quite high too
08:14for the next couple of nights. But then they do dip down later on in the week when that colder
08:19air moves
08:20in when that cold front pushes through. So any gardeners watching, beware. There is a risk of frost,
08:26especially a grass frost, if you're thinking about getting your plants out. So highs across. If I just
08:34focus on the more southeastern areas, you can see quite widely. We're down just to the south of London.
08:43There's Harrow for you. 23 degrees. I think anywhere really, to be honest, across that
08:50London area could see the 26, potentially 27 degrees. Now, if we see over 26 degrees, it'll be
08:59the warmest temperatures we've seen this early in April since 2020, a particularly notable spring
09:06for all of us. And if we see over 26.7, well, that will be the highest temperature we've seen
09:14through early April ever on record. The current record is from the 4th of April, 1946. We had 26.7
09:23degrees. Now, it's not close to the April record on the overall April record, which is over 29 degrees
09:31from the 16th of April. But this early in April, this could be a very notable warmth by the time
09:37we
09:38get to Wednesday. So we will be keeping a close eye on that. But it's not going to be a
09:45long-lived warm
09:46spell. Big change Wednesday into Thursday. And you can see that very nicely on the temperature change
09:54maps. So this is one day compared to the next. So this is how the temperatures compare from the previous
10:01day. So Tuesday's warmer than Monday, Wednesday warmer than Tuesday for most of us. But cold air
10:07starting to come into the northwest already. And then there's quite a contrast Thursday as that cold
10:13front is kind of halfway across the UK. For some areas of the northwest, it could be a good 10
10:19degrees.
10:21A good 10 degrees cooler. Let's get on to
10:26let's get on to Thursday. There we go. Yeah, this is, I think, going to be the most interesting day
10:32where you'll really well notice the difference. It's a thing with spring, isn't it? It's a fickle
10:36old month that gives us a bit of everything. Feel like it's summer one day and then you're back into
10:41winter the next. And I think Thursday's going to be one of those days for parts of Northern Ireland.
10:46And Scotland, North Wales, even as I said, down towards the southwest as well, the north coast of Cornwall.
10:51If you're down there for the Easter holidays as well, you will notice a difference. Yeah,
10:56close to 10 degree difference. We've got the scale here of how much the temperature varies from day to
11:02day. But it's still, in fact, could be an even warmer day into Thursday across some
11:07southeastern areas. I think quite likely to see potentially 25 degrees once again across more
11:13southeastern areas. And then Wednesday, that cold air is pushed in quite widely across the UK.
11:18Maximum temperatures around 9 to 14 degrees. So that's about average, to be honest,
11:26if not a little bit below average for more northwestern areas.
11:31Now that comes with more unsettled weather and potentially some wetter weather. And as I said,
11:37Friday into Saturday, we could see some quite windy weather with an area of low pressure moving in.
11:44Let's look at more details of that area of low pressure. So it's Friday into Saturday. So
11:50I just go back a little bit. You can see it's starting to develop. So why is it developing?
11:56Well, it's this strong area of the jet stream, the core of the jet stream, interacting with that
12:02low pressure to deepen it, to allow that air to rise, bringing that unsettled weather,
12:08the rain and the strong winds. Now, for those that don't know what causes the jet stream to develop,
12:14well, it's due to a contrast in temperatures across parts of the Atlantic. And you can see that contrast
12:22in temperature. If I take the jet stream off, you can see this pool of cold air pulling up from
12:29northern Canada, down from Greenland, interacting with that tropical air. And it's where those two
12:36air masses meet the contrast, where we get the jet stream developing. And that's going to deepen
12:43this area of low pressure. And it will push up to the northwest of the UK through Friday night into
12:51Saturday, bringing many of us pretty unsettled weekend. If I turn off the jet stream and put the
13:01rain on, you can see there'll be bands of showers. It doesn't look like it's going to be a total
13:05washout this weekend. I think it's going to be unsettled and cooler. So showery,
13:10a showery mix and just feeling a bit windy and a bit cold. More southeastern areas getting the best
13:16of any drier weather. We can see how the rainfall totals look for the weekend. So this is the
13:2620, we've got the 24 hour rainfall totals for Friday and into Saturday. And you can see,
13:38I don't think that data is loading properly actually. If I just go back to the summary map
13:42there, that looks a bit better. You can see that it's more western areas of the UK seeing that rainfall
13:49pushing in. But before then, we've not got a lot of rainfall. I think this starts a bit later on.
13:54So we've got some wet weather pushing in. We can actually look at it a little bit better just on
13:59the rain itself. So yeah, this is the current picture. There is a bit of uncertainty in how
14:06that low pressure system develops. All systems though do sort of develop a area of low pressure.
14:12It's quite how deep it is and the exact position. There's some variations, but I think all outcomes
14:17bring wetter and windier weather to northwestern areas, slightly drier weather to the southeast.
14:22Nothing, none of the outcomes actually bring a low pressure across the UK, making that wetter weather
14:28more widespread. So you can see it really becomes focused across western areas and then it kind of
14:33elongates and then we start to bring up some more southerly air as well. So a bit of a mixed
14:39picture
14:39over the weekend at the moment. Obviously we'll be keeping an eye on that as well. So the Met Office
14:45model wants to keep that area of low pressure out to the north and west. And we often look at
14:50different
14:51models when we're looking at this and in fact the ECMWF model also wants to do a pretty similar thing.
14:58If I put the, this is the pressure sequence. So let's just scroll to,
15:08here we go. I'll go to Friday night because that's when it looks like it will be the strongest.
15:16So this is ECMWF model, the European longer range model. Here at the Met Office we look at our own
15:22model, particularly for shorter range periods because it's the highest resolution and obviously
15:27our own model. But when we're looking slightly further ahead, we often compare models because
15:32that gives us a better idea of confidence. Lots of people always ask, why are we looking at lots of
15:37models? Why don't we just look at our own? Well, why would you just look at one thing when you've
15:40got
15:40lots of options to look at? And sometimes other models do have better solutions or more favored
15:46solutions, particularly at longer time ranges. And this ECMWF data here is not just one run of the
15:53model, it's an ensemble run. So we've got all the different outputs. Now the ensemble runs vary because
16:01the initial conditions, the starting point are slightly tweaked just to give us an idea of the
16:06potential uncertainty, the potential error in the initial readings, the initial setup of the atmosphere.
16:13And then we push that in time and see how those initial errors create bigger differences in time.
16:19Sometimes there's huge differences. Sometimes there's only small differences. And this is one of
16:24the situations where there's only kind of pretty small differences. So I'll just click through some of
16:29the different model outcomes. These are different members. There's 51 of them. And all of them have a
16:36low pressure system. Actually, I'll stand over here, probably standing in the way. And all of them have
16:43something out to the northwest of the UK, quite deep air of low pressure through Friday night.
16:51But the exact depth and how deep it is, well, the same thing, the exact position of it does vary
16:58a
16:58little bit. So that is something we'll be keeping an eye on. But as I said, we're not expecting anything
17:02of any similar strength to Storm Dave at the moment. So a more unsettled turn to the end of the
17:11week and
17:12into the weekend, a showery cooler setup to come. And the long range forecast for those are wondering
17:21when will be the fine weather return? Well, we can look at the probability plot a little bit further
17:27ahead. So this shows you the the different scenarios, all the different ensemble data I just explained.
17:35And this is from a slightly different model is grouped into types of weather patterns.
17:41So low pressure dominating and high pressure dominating. Blues are the low pressure dominating.
17:46Reds are that high pressure dominating. And it's put into a probability plot.
17:50So you can see for each day the kind of split the ratio of what's more likely.
17:56So for Friday and into the weekend, those blues are quite likely. Then actually, the longer range
18:04forecast has high pressure pretty close to the UK. So just like it actually is going to stay
18:10relatively dry for many of us into the outlook. Obviously, we've still got the risk of this low
18:18pressure. Slightly more southwesterly winds coming in from the southwest. And this is the Scandinavian
18:24high, the kind of brighter red that's most likely. So high pressure being based more out to the east,
18:30bringing in southerly winds. But then that kind of also allows more southwesterly low pressures to
18:35come in, which is what is happening this weekend. And over the last weekend and this weekend,
18:41with the low pressure coming down to the southwest and then moving up north, being pushed up with this
18:46high pressure down to the east brink with these southerly winds. So it does mean that it will
18:52is most likely to stay relatively dry, not completely dry, of course. And there's the potential to see
18:58some further warmer spells as well through the rest of April as the heat over the mid-continent continues
19:05to build. Sea temperatures beginning to rise. Still quite chilly for a swim. I was at the coast
19:12this weekend and the onshore wind really does make a difference. You do need to get in the shelter
19:18of the wind at this time of year to enjoy the sunshine. It's worth noting as well for the
19:23sunshine this week, pollen levels are high. It's tree pollen at this time of year. It doesn't
19:29affect as many of us, but I think some of us will have been noticing that. And they are high
19:33throughout
19:33this week. UV levels moving up to the higher end of moderate as well. So we are at risk of
19:39burning.
19:40I think people get caught off guard at this time of year, don't they? People try and get out there
19:45and enjoy it because they've missed it. But yeah, it could bring some potential risk of skin damage.
19:52So make sure you apply the sun cream if you are heading out through the next couple of days.
19:57Now, I made a promise at the beginning to have a look around the globe at the cyclones that are
20:05going on
20:06across the parts of the Pacific. So we have got severe tropical cyclone, Myla, which is a category four
20:16that's moving across the Solomon Islands. That's the most notable thing going on across the globe
20:21at the moment. I'm actually going to go on to the rain to show us this.
20:29So let's zoom out a little bit.
20:36So it's the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea as well that are likely to be affected by
20:43this area. Here we go. It's tropical cyclone, Myla, M-A-I-L-A. Now that is expected to move
20:53to across the Solomon Islands and then towards Papua New Guinea throughout the next couple of days and
20:59then over to parts of Queensland as it becomes a much weaker feature. It could bring some notable rainfall
21:05here. Now that is potentially, yeah, it could bring sort of 200 to 300 millimetres of rainfall,
21:12quite a lot of heavy rain. It's a pretty slow moving system. Now it is notable for this area because
21:19you don't normally get tropical cyclones of this strength. It's sort of category three
21:25verging on category four in this part of the Solomon Islands for a number of reasons. So
21:30for cyclones, typhoons, hurricanes, you need the moisture, you need warmth and you need something
21:36to get it going, to keep it going. So often when these systems bump into land and cooler seas, they
21:42start
21:43to weaken. And close to this area across the Solomon Sea then and the Solomon Islands, because there's
21:50various bits of land as well, there's not as much forcing. It's unusual to see a large system continue
21:57to be maintained. It's got to be quite a slow moving system to allow it to continue to deepen and
22:02not
22:02reach land. So this is quite unusual and there's the potential for it to be the strongest cyclone to
22:10affect the Solomon Islands ever, in fact. And so we'll be keeping a close eye on that one. We've got
22:17a
22:17global team here that keep an eye across the whole globe for potential impacts as well to whether so it's
22:25parts of the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea that are most likely to be affected by that. And then
22:31over here as well, there's another area of low pressure that's a cyclone, severe tropical cyclone
22:38Vianu, a category three cyclone. Let's see how that one develops. So that's expected, and we need to go back,
22:45that's expected to make landfall in Fiji through Tuesday and into Wednesday, as you can see there.
22:55And then it moves southwards, but it does weaken. It starts to lose its forcing as it moves down into
23:01the cooler seas, but it does begin to approach parts of New Zealand. And although it will be a
23:07weaker system by the time it reaches New Zealand and the track of it is not exact, it's got the
23:12potential
23:13to bring some quite severe strong winds and heavy rainfall to the North Island of New Zealand later
23:20on this week. You can see this is the Met Office global model that's got that moving into the North
23:25Island through this weekend, Saturday into Sunday. Potentially some quite notable heavy rain and
23:33strong winds there. Meanwhile, that tropical cyclomyelo has dissipated, but it has got the potential to
23:41bring some pretty wet weather to parts of Queensland as well. Let's see if you can see how that rainfall
23:48builds up these areas. I mean, yeah, look, look at that one. Zoom in New Zealand there.
23:59This is the 24 hour rainfall totals up over this weekend. Potentially over 100 millimetres of rain.
24:06Obviously, they're moving into winter time there as we start to move into summer time. And before then,
24:14the heavy rainfall here, you can see the Solomon Islands moving into the far east of Papua New
24:20Guinea as well in excess of 150 millimetres through the next few days. So expecting some flooding problems
24:27in these areas. So a few things going on elsewhere. Now, some of you like to see
24:33some of that global weather. We've got an amazing wealth of data on hand to us on this board here.
24:40But that's all I've got time for. I hope you've enjoyed this week's deep dive. Thank you so much
24:46for joining me. If you've got any questions about what we've discussed, well, let us know in the
24:50comments. We do check the comments for questions in particular that we go over in our weekly live show.
24:57That's on a Friday 1215. If you've not caught it before, well, you must. You can watch it live or
25:02you
25:02can watch back. But the benefit of watching live is you can even ask questions there and then.
25:07We answer questions from previous videos, questions from you in the comments box.
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25:24like to see anything else, what else you'd like from us. We are taking ideas on board at all times.
25:30So we love to hear from you. And thank you for joining us. I hope you had a brilliant Easter
25:35weekend
25:35and you do get to enjoy some of the springtime sunshine over the next couple of days. But otherwise,
25:41I'll catch you on the live on Friday with Alex Burkhill and have a lovely rest of your week. Bye
25:47-bye.
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