Dialog Tiga Penjuru: West Asia Conflict : ASEAN Speaks with one voice

AWANI

Can ASEAN maintain unity and peace without forcing its members to choose sides in a deepening West Asia conflict?  Is ASEAN still dependent on global powers for its energy security — and is regional energy integration too idealistic amid today’s geopolitical tensions?  Catch the discussion with experts from Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand tonight on Dialog Tiga Penjuru, 8.30pm  #DialogTigaPenjuru #AWANInews

Transcript

00:00The recent conflict in Iran has the world on edge.

00:04Everything from security to energy to geopolitics has been thrown into the air

00:09and no one is certain as to how this conflict will pan out.

00:14But for the region of ASEAN especially, probably key amongst all is energy security.

00:21Now, recent disruptions towards the passages of all tankers and ships in the Strait of Hormuz

00:26have revived questions about whether this region is too dependent on oil and gas,

00:31especially coming from the Middle East.

00:33And within the framework of ASEAN, what can we do better to reduce set dependence

00:38to ensure a better and more secure future?

00:42This is Dialog Tiga Penjuru.

00:52So joining me today is Dr Bandit Aroman, Head of Political Science

00:55and Lecturer of Security and Peace Management from the Faculty of Liberal Arts,

01:00Kirk University in Thailand.

01:01Professor Dr Mohamed Mizan Aslam is an international security expert

01:06and Dr Tia Mariatul Kibtiah is an international relations expert

01:10at BINUS University in Indonesia.

01:12Thanks so much all for joining us.

01:16Let me start with Dr Tia.

01:18Dr Tia, roughly speaking as an opening question,

01:20how do you see the current conflicts in the Middle East and Iran,

01:25especially affecting ASEAN's energy security?

01:29Exactly.

01:30All, anything happen in the Middle East always influence to the Southeast Asia,

01:34especially for the ASEAN crunches.

01:37For example, not only now,

01:39in hot issue about the Hormuz Strait

01:42and then the conflict between the US, Israel versus Iran,

01:46but also I think we have to feedback about the, you know,

01:50like the terrorism issue for the last decade,

01:54how the many people, for example, in Southeast Asia,

01:58from Southeast Asia, from Indonesia,

02:00especially going to Syria based on the jihad reasons

02:05and finally back to Indonesia

02:07and maybe do the terror here

02:11and become the terrorists

02:12and this one show us that

02:15how the Middle East issues, Middle East conflict

02:18always influence to the ASEAN countries

02:21or Southeast Asia countries,

02:24especially for the Malaysia and Indonesia.

02:26And now, Mas Lukman,

02:29we can see the conflict between the US,

02:33Israel versus Iran,

02:34especially for the Hormuz Strait

02:36and finally influence to the economic development,

02:41especially for the ASEAN countries.

02:44You can see, Mas Lukman,

02:46in Philippines,

02:47maybe this is the complicated issue

02:50and the big problem

02:52how the energy is very essential

02:53for developing countries like us,

02:55like the Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand.

02:58And this is very essential.

03:01And finally, maybe my suggestion

03:03is to our government,

03:05to all countries in ASEAN,

03:08maybe to strengthen each other,

03:10Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia,

03:12how to strengthen the economic system here,

03:15how to build the economic system in ASEAN

03:18and always maybe ready

03:21to face the conflict in many regions,

03:25including in Middle East,

03:26not only for now,

03:27maybe for the next,

03:29because the Middle East always

03:30like to happen a conflict there,

03:33so the solution is ASEAN countries

03:38have to ready to all conditions.

03:41For example,

03:42maybe pay attention again

03:44to the maybe pillars in ASEAN,

03:48especially for the three pillars,

03:49economic system,

03:52and first,

03:53the second is how to political system,

03:55and then the sociocultural system.

03:57Three pillars ASEAN is very essential

04:00how to build,

04:01how to stand each other in ASEAN.

04:04Yeah, I think most countries,

04:06if not all countries in the world

04:07are affected one way or another,

04:09but I think as mentioned just now,

04:11countries within ASEAN

04:12are among the most affected

04:13because we are some of the most open economies,

04:16we are very dependent on exports,

04:18we are very dependent on energy,

04:20whether be it LNG or oil

04:22coming from the Strait of Hormuz.

04:24But Dr. Bandit,

04:25Thailand has got to be

04:26one of the most significantly affected.

04:27It gets around half of its oil

04:30and more than 20%

04:32of its liquefied natural gas,

04:33LNG,

04:34from the Strait of Hormuz.

04:35How has it been affected so far

04:37and how is it managing this short term?

04:41Yes, definitely in Thailand,

04:43I think the Strait of Hormuz,

04:45it is the heart of the energy resources

04:49coming from,

04:50especially from Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

04:53Of course,

04:55in the beginning,

04:56we are not expected

04:57that the conflict between

05:00the US,

05:02Israel and Iran

05:03will be a long war

05:05that will be affected

05:06Thailand and the ASEAN region.

05:10But now,

05:11the people in Thailand

05:12might be thinking differently.

05:16We think that the Iranian

05:18has a lot of,

05:20I think that the strategy

05:23that has been,

05:24you know,

05:27shown to the people

05:30that they have another,

05:31you know,

05:32dimension that they have

05:33preventing their countries

05:36and also the accepting

05:38of the Gulf regions

05:40and also the uncertainty

05:42of the energy prices in Thailand

05:45that's making Thai people,

05:49especially for those entrepreneurs

05:52and also the logistics

05:54which cost a lot of

05:57funnel oil prices

05:58and gas prices in Thailand

06:00is go,

06:01I think,

06:02three times higher

06:04than before the war started.

06:08So this is on might be,

06:11you know,

06:11thinking that what is

06:14the possibility

06:16that the ASEAN region

06:18is the place

06:20where there is

06:21the less conflicts

06:23and also there is

06:25the dimensions

06:27of the food security resources.

06:30we also thinking

06:32that the security management

06:34might not be

06:36concerned just

06:37only the state management.

06:39We also thinking

06:40now to the

06:42human security

06:43in Thailand

06:44for the long term.

06:46What are the

06:48short-term measures

06:48being taken?

06:49In Malaysia,

06:49for example,

06:50the government

06:50is under pressure,

06:52fiscal pressure especially,

06:53but also political pressure

06:54to maintain

06:55fuel subsidy

06:56for most people.

06:58How about Thailand?

07:00Because taking into

07:01consideration what I said

07:01just now,

07:02you get about

07:02half of your oil

07:03from the Strait of Hormuz,

07:05you get about

07:0520% or so

07:06of your liquefied

07:07natural gas

07:07from the Strait of Hormuz.

07:09We'll talk about

07:09the long term later,

07:11but what are the

07:12ad hoc,

07:13you know,

07:14spontaneous measures

07:14taken by the Thai government

07:15to mitigate its impacts

07:17on the Thai people?

07:19Actually,

07:20the government

07:21already,

07:21you know,

07:22after the

07:22set turn

07:23by the new

07:25government

07:26from under

07:27Anu Kinshan,

07:28Virakun.

07:29So,

07:29after the oil price

07:31gone very high,

07:33of course,

07:34these,

07:34the dimensions

07:37of the people,

07:39you know,

07:40against the governments

07:41in terms of

07:42the high prices

07:43is gone to

07:45requesting

07:46the wave

07:48of the government

07:49subsidized

07:50on the oil price,

07:51especially for

07:52the public

07:53transactions,

07:54also

07:55the logistic

07:56forces

07:57and also

07:58the

08:00energy

08:01resources

08:02for the

08:03renewable energy

08:04resources,

08:05the solar

08:06same wave

08:06of the

08:07prices.

08:09So,

08:09these are the

08:10criteria that

08:11government

08:11tried to

08:12set up

08:13the

08:15subsidy

08:16to the people.

08:17Right.

08:18I just have

08:19a quick

08:19follow-up

08:20for you,

08:20Dr. Bandit,

08:21before I move

08:21on to

08:21Professor

08:22Mizan.

08:24This

08:25conflict,

08:25among others,

08:26have highlighted

08:27the need

08:28for a

08:28long-term

08:29plan

08:29to

08:31solidify

08:32and diversify

08:33our

08:34energy source

08:35and our

08:35energy security

08:36amongst all

08:37ASEAN countries,

08:38including Thailand,

08:38including Malaysia

08:39and Indonesia,

08:40of course.

08:41So,

08:41we've talked

08:41about short-term

08:42plans.

08:43Any semblance

08:44of long-term

08:45planning?

08:46What are

08:46Thailand's

08:47long-term

08:47plans to

08:48reduce

08:48or diversify

08:49its dependence

08:50on oil

08:52coming through

08:53the Middle East?

08:53I think

08:54for me,

08:55from my point

08:56of view,

08:56we don't see

08:57a concrete

08:58long-term

08:59planning

08:59from our

09:00side.

09:02We don't

09:03see

09:04the

09:05long-term

09:06planning,

09:07but of course,

09:08the effective

09:09of the

09:10oil prices,

09:11we see

09:12that

09:13now

09:13the

09:14settlement

09:15of the

09:15government

09:15try to

09:16set up

09:17what you

09:18call

09:19the

09:21energy

09:23resources

09:24from

09:25the

09:28solar

09:29resources,

09:30solar,

09:31what you

09:32call

09:32the

09:33solar

09:33for

09:35the

09:36electricity

09:36that

09:37can be

09:38waived

09:40up to

09:40100%.

09:41and

09:42recently,

09:43if you

09:43see that

09:44the

09:44people

09:44behavior

09:45for

09:46a car

09:47that

09:48they

09:48are

09:48motivating

09:51people

09:52to

09:52use

09:53more EV

09:54car

09:55rather than

09:56the

09:56previous one,

09:58now the

09:58people

09:58trust

09:59more

10:00to

10:01convince

10:03to buy

10:04EV

10:05cars.

10:06most of

10:08the

10:08company

10:09of the

10:10EV

10:10car

10:10already

10:11landed

10:12in

10:14Thailand

10:15and

10:15opened

10:16a lot

10:16of

10:16the

10:16company

10:17and

10:18especially

10:19now we

10:20have

10:20the

10:20motor

10:21show

10:22is going

10:22on in

10:23the heart

10:24of Bangkok.

10:25We never

10:26seen it

10:27before that

10:27a lot of

10:28people and

10:28crowded

10:29of people

10:29now

10:30they

10:31already

10:32planned

10:33for

10:33a

10:34long

10:34term

10:34because

10:35of

10:35the

10:35they

10:37have

10:37self-protection

10:39rather than

10:39they are

10:40depending

10:41on the

10:42government

10:42long

10:43term.

10:43Right,

10:44right.

10:46Professor

10:46Mizan,

10:49do you

10:50think

10:51it's fair

10:51to say

10:52that following

10:53the

10:53conflict

10:54in Iran,

10:54ASEAN

10:56countries have

10:56been caught

10:57grossly

10:57unprepared

10:58in terms

10:59of its

10:59energy

11:00security.

11:01Yeah,

11:03thank you very much

11:03for having me.

11:04So,

11:05Luqman,

11:05I may say

11:06that you

11:07are right.

11:08Actually,

11:09we are

11:10somehow

11:11not fully

11:12ready.

11:13I think

11:13not only

11:14Malaysia

11:14or South

11:15East Asia

11:16particularly

11:16but

11:18all

11:19country

11:20around the

11:20world

11:20actually

11:21not prepared.

11:22Even

11:22if we

11:23go

11:23by details

11:25even

11:26the

11:26Congress

11:27of

11:28America

11:28also

11:28don't

11:29know

11:29the

11:29attack

11:30is

11:30going

11:30to

11:30be

11:31launched

11:31by

11:32Donald

11:33Trump

11:33himself

11:34without

11:35asking

11:36consensus

11:37from

11:38the

11:38Congress.

11:39And even

11:40the

11:40Middle

11:41Eastern

11:41countries

11:41also

11:42don't

11:42know

11:42about

11:42the

11:43attack.

11:43And

11:44actually

11:44it

11:44is

11:45solely

11:45a

11:46decision

11:46by

11:47President

11:48of

11:48America

11:48as well

11:49as

11:49Israel.

11:51Okay,

11:52anyway,

11:52it did

11:52happen.

11:53Now

11:53the

11:54issue

11:55is

11:55how

11:56to

11:56contain

11:56and

11:57how

11:57to

11:57manage

11:58or

11:59we

11:59control

12:00the

12:01damage

12:02that's

12:02the

12:02main

12:02thing.

12:03And

12:03the

12:05incident

12:06that

12:06happening

12:06right now

12:07left

12:08ASEAN

12:09actually

12:09at a

12:10very

12:10critical

12:11situation.

12:12So

12:12we

12:12know

12:13that

12:13for

12:13example

12:13in

12:14Philippines

12:14country

12:16have

12:16been declared

12:17an

12:18energy

12:18emergency

12:19so

12:20we

12:20can

12:20see

12:20also

12:21in

12:21Indonesia

12:21lots

12:22of

12:23cars

12:23motor

12:24bikes

12:24have

12:24to

12:25queue

12:25to

12:26get

12:26a

12:26petrol

12:27even

12:28in

12:28Malaysia

12:29in

12:30Thailand

12:30so

12:31Southeast

12:32Asia

12:32mainly

12:33have

12:35been

12:35impacted

12:36by

12:36this

12:37situation

12:37and

12:38many

12:40kind

12:40of

12:40like

12:41initiative

12:42have

12:42been

12:42taken

12:43for

12:43example

12:44to

12:44try

12:45to

12:45control

12:45the

12:45price

12:46reducing

12:47the

12:47price

12:47by

12:47injecting

12:48subsidized

12:50oil

12:52and

12:52also

12:53work

12:54from

12:54home

12:55reduce

12:55the

12:56day

12:57of

12:57work

12:57and

12:58many

12:58more

12:58and

12:59also

12:59I

13:00did

13:01agree

13:01with

13:02our

13:02both

13:02panelists

13:04as

13:04well

13:04which

13:05is

13:06the

13:07use

13:07of

13:07EV

13:08and

13:09also

13:10electric

13:10vehicle

13:11as

13:12part

13:13of

13:13the

13:14clever

13:15decision

13:16right

13:16now

13:16but

13:18it is

13:18we

13:19are

13:20in

13:20the

13:20situation

13:21which

13:21is

13:21not

13:21really

13:22prepared

13:22so

13:22it

13:23makes

13:23things

13:24very

13:25hard

13:25to

13:25adapt

13:26all

13:26this

13:26thing

13:27it

13:27needs

13:27time

13:27and

13:28then

13:28also

13:29for

13:30electricity

13:30consume

13:31lots

13:32of

13:32oil

13:33which

13:33is

13:33normally

13:34for

13:35South East Asia

13:36or

13:37ASEAN

13:37countries

13:38which

13:38depends

13:38on

13:38the

13:39fossil

13:39fuel

13:40so

13:40now

13:41back

13:41to

13:42coal

13:43as a

13:43main

13:44source

13:45for

13:45this

13:45energy

13:46for

13:46the

13:46machines

13:47but

13:48the

13:49coal

13:50is

13:51much

13:51higher

13:52in terms

13:52of

13:53price

13:53rather than

13:54oil

13:54so

13:55I

13:55think

13:55the

13:57thing

13:58that we

13:58are

13:58doing

13:59right

13:59now

13:59is

14:00more

14:00on

14:00short

14:01term

14:02like

14:03act

14:04but

14:05for

14:06long

14:06term

14:06we

14:06need

14:07more

14:07comprehensive

14:08action

14:09to

14:09counter

14:10this

14:11issue

14:11yeah

14:12right

14:12we're

14:13talking

14:13about

14:13energy

14:14but

14:14I

14:14also

14:14understand

14:15your

14:15ambit

14:15of

14:15international

14:16security

14:16Prof

14:17Mizan

14:17how

14:18will

14:19or

14:20how

14:20can

14:20energy

14:22insecurity

14:23also

14:24affect

14:24regional

14:25security

14:25for

14:26ASEAN

14:26yeah

14:27actually

14:29energy

14:30security

14:31is

14:31something

14:32that

14:33should

14:34be

14:34in

14:35mind

14:35for

14:36most

14:37of

14:37the

14:37countries

14:37in

14:38this

14:38world

14:38but

14:39I

14:39think

14:39for

14:40countries

14:41who

14:41are

14:41always

14:42having

14:43a

14:43big

14:43aim

14:45or

14:46having

14:46a

14:46big

14:48ambition

14:49they

14:50already

14:50put

14:50energy

14:52security

14:52as

14:53one

14:53of

14:53the

14:53critical

14:54things

14:55in

14:55their

14:56policy

14:57or

14:58their

14:58doctrine

14:59something

14:59like

14:59that

15:01because

15:02we

15:03know

15:03that

15:03now

15:04the

15:05whole

15:05world

15:06is

15:06not

15:06only

15:07facing

15:07a

15:07traditional

15:08threat

15:09that

15:10come

15:10from

15:11you

15:11know

15:11from

15:11the

15:12war

15:12which

15:13is

15:14another

15:15terms

15:15that

15:15call

15:16it

15:16like

15:17a

15:17real

15:17fight

15:18between

15:18country

15:19and

15:19country

15:19between

15:20army

15:20and

15:20army

15:21now

15:21we

15:22are

15:22facing

15:22so-called

15:23asymmetrical

15:24warfare

15:24or irregular

15:26warfare

15:26that

15:27comes

15:27from

15:28terrorism

15:29it

15:29comes

15:30from

15:30resistance

15:31it

15:31comes

15:32from

15:32bioterrorism

15:34and

15:35those

15:36kind

15:36of

15:37thing

15:37and

15:38energy

15:38is

15:39one

15:39of

15:39the

15:39thing

15:39that

15:40will

15:40make

15:41the

15:41whole

15:41world

15:42in

15:42the

15:42big

15:43trouble

15:43right

15:44now

15:44that's

15:45why

15:45it's

15:45not

15:45only

15:46about

15:46protecting

15:46the

15:47country

15:47sovereignty

15:48but

15:48protecting

15:49a

15:49critical

15:50industry

15:50for

15:51example

15:51oil

15:52industry

15:53the

15:53oil

15:54refinery

15:54protecting

15:56even

15:56the

15:56salination

15:58of the

15:58country

15:58itself

15:59even

16:00the

16:00oil

16:01production

16:01the

16:02water

16:03production

16:04even

16:05the

16:05broadcasting

16:06centers

16:07so

16:08all

16:08this

16:09part

16:09of

16:10the

16:10so-called

16:10the

16:11critical

16:11infrastructure

16:12that

16:12need

16:12to be

16:13guarded

16:14or

16:15to be

16:16in

16:16one

16:17of

16:17the

16:17like

16:18a

16:18doctrine

16:19for

16:19the

16:19country

16:19to

16:20protect

16:21all

16:21this

16:21kind

16:21of

16:22thing

16:22and

16:23anyway

16:24energy

16:25security

16:26is one

16:26thing

16:27and also

16:27it

16:27impacted

16:28us

16:29especially

16:29in

16:29Southeast

16:30Asia

16:30and

16:31now

16:31because

16:32of

16:32the

16:32closure

16:33of

16:34the

16:34Hormuz

16:34trade

16:35and

16:35recently

16:36also

16:37we can

16:38see

16:38the

16:39proxy

16:40of

16:40Iran

16:41in

16:42Yemen

16:43which

16:43is

16:43Houthis

16:44also

16:44already

16:45threat

16:45put a

16:46threat

16:47that

16:47they're

16:47going

16:47to

16:48close

16:48Bab

16:49Al-Mandad

16:50as well

16:50so

16:51if

16:51Bab

16:51Al-Mandad

16:52which

16:52is

16:52the

16:53Red Sea

16:53plus

16:53with

16:54Hormuz

16:54trade

16:54combined

16:55so

16:56it

16:56will

16:56impacted

16:58about

16:58one-third

16:59of

16:59the

16:59oil

17:00and

17:00also

17:00gas

17:01LPG

17:02production

17:02shipping lines

17:04so

17:05then

17:05the

17:06flow

17:06will

17:06come to

17:07Southeast

17:07Asia

17:07then

17:08we

17:09will

17:09have

17:09another

17:10possible

17:11catastrophic

17:13and also

17:13problem

17:14when

17:15Southeast

17:15Asia

17:15especially

17:16Malacca

17:16Strait

17:17China

17:18South

17:18China

17:19become

17:20busy

17:21with

17:21this

17:22kind

17:22of

17:22issue

17:22and

17:23things

17:23right

17:23and

17:24Bab

17:24Amandad

17:25is

17:25also

17:25one

17:25of

17:25the

17:26top

17:26five

17:26I

17:26think

17:26at

17:27least

17:27top

17:27three

17:28streets

17:29through

17:30which

17:30a lot

17:31of

17:31the

17:31world's

17:32oil and

17:32gas

17:32supply

17:32flows

17:33I

17:34think

17:34one

17:34more

17:35interesting

17:35point

17:35and

17:36angle

17:36about

17:37how

17:37energy

17:38insecurity

17:38in

17:38ASEAN

17:39can also

17:39affect

17:40security

17:40is that

17:41it

17:41can also

17:41affect

17:42neutrality

17:42because

17:42for the

17:43longest

17:43time

17:43I'm

17:43sure

17:43you

17:44all

17:44are

17:44very

17:44familiar

17:45the

17:46countries

17:46of

17:46ASEAN

17:46have

17:47played

17:52but

17:53when

17:54you

17:54talk

17:55about

17:55energy

17:55independence

17:56of

17:56ASEAN

17:57or

17:57lack

17:58thereof

17:59we

18:00probably

18:01would

18:01be

18:02faced

18:02with

18:02choice

18:03or

18:04no

18:04choice

18:04in

18:05terms

18:05of

18:05having

18:05to

18:06skew

18:06more

18:06towards

18:07one

18:07of

18:07the

18:08big

18:08powers

18:08to

18:09ensure

18:10continuous

18:10supply

18:11of

18:11our

18:11energy

18:12whether

18:12it

18:12oil

18:13or

18:14electricity

18:14or

18:15gas

18:15Dr.

18:16Tia

18:16to

18:17what

18:17extent

18:18is

18:18ASEAN

18:18still

18:19dependent

18:19on

18:19the

18:20US

18:20or

18:20China

18:21for

18:21energy

18:22generation

18:23maybe

18:24for

18:24now

18:25the

18:25ASEAN

18:25countries

18:26still

18:27depend

18:27on

18:28energy

18:28from

18:28the

18:28Middle

18:29East

18:29because

18:29as far

18:30we

18:30know

18:30the

18:30Middle

18:31East

18:31have

18:32the

18:33three

18:34roads

18:34number

18:35one

18:35is

18:35the

18:36Suez

18:36Canal

18:36number

18:37two

18:37like

18:38the

18:38Progmizan

18:39mansions

18:40in Yemen

18:42and the

18:43third

18:43is

18:44Hormuz

18:44Street

18:45three

18:45street

18:46this

18:47one

18:47is

18:47very

18:47essential

18:48how

18:49to

18:49energy

18:50from

18:50the

18:50Middle

18:51East

18:51come

18:51to

18:51Asia

18:52especially

18:54for

18:54the

18:54ASEAN

18:55countries

18:56not

18:57withstanding

18:58the

18:58naval

18:59routes

19:00how

19:01dependent

19:01are we

19:02on

19:03the

19:03US

19:03and

19:03China

19:04or

19:04China

19:04in terms

19:05of the

19:06whole

19:06energy

19:06generation

19:07supply

19:07chain

19:08or

19:08ecosystem

19:08because

19:09we're

19:09also

19:09talking

19:09about

19:10technology

19:10we're

19:10also

19:10talking

19:11about

19:11parts

19:12electricity

19:13grid

19:13etc

19:13are we

19:14really

19:15dependent

19:15on

19:15either

19:15US

19:15or

19:16China

19:16because

19:17we need

19:17to look

19:17at

19:17them

19:18as

19:18an

19:18alternative

19:18to

19:19the

19:19now

19:19blocked

19:20routes

19:21of

19:21the

19:21Middle

19:21East

19:22for

19:22oil

19:22yeah

19:23it's

19:23impossible

19:25because

19:26I think

19:27China

19:28and then

19:29the many

19:29countries in the world

19:30still depend on

19:31the energy

19:32and then

19:32maybe for the

19:33solutions

19:34for the next

19:35energy

19:35supply

19:36energy

19:36maybe

19:37the

19:37oil

19:38countries

19:38have to

19:39like the

19:40energy

19:40transitions

19:41you know

19:41like the

19:42renewable energy

19:43but

19:43I think

19:44it's hard

19:44how to build

19:45the

19:45renewable energy

19:46because

19:47for example

19:48in Indonesia

19:48trying to

19:49maybe

19:50transition

19:51energy

19:52from the

19:52fossil

19:53to the

19:54maybe

19:54renewable

19:54energy

19:55like the

19:55wine

19:56energy

19:56like the

19:57solar

19:57panel

19:57energy

19:58and others

19:58but

19:59it's

19:59cost

20:00production

20:00is very

20:01expensive

20:01so

20:03I think

20:04this is

20:04the

20:04maybe

20:05homework

20:05for the

20:06ASEAN

20:07countries

20:07how to

20:07build

20:08the

20:08system

20:08how to

20:09build

20:10the

20:10energy

20:11transitions

20:11so

20:12this is

20:13the

20:13one

20:13solution

20:14how to

20:15the ASEAN

20:15countries

20:15for example

20:16China

20:17including

20:17the

20:18China

20:18I think

20:19so

20:20cannot

20:21depend on

20:22again

20:22to the

20:23maybe

20:23fossil

20:24energy

20:25from the

20:25Middle East

20:26and

20:26the

20:27conflict

20:27show us

20:28that

20:28it's

20:29very

20:29complicated

20:29when the

20:30conflict

20:30happened

20:30in the

20:31Middle East

20:31that

20:31influence

20:32absolutely

20:32to

20:33Asia

20:33China

20:34and

20:35we

20:35we are

20:36in the

20:37ASEAN

20:37countries

20:38and so

20:39Dr.

20:39Bandit

20:39the

20:40ASEAN

20:40power

20:40grid

20:40the

20:41APG

20:41has

20:41often

20:42been

20:42mentioned

20:42as a

20:42long-term

20:43solution

20:43even

20:43way

20:43before

20:44this

20:44whole

20:45conflict

20:45broke

20:45out in

20:46Iran

20:47on

20:48paper

20:48it looks

20:49nice

20:49but

20:50from a

20:50regional

20:50political

20:51perspective

20:52is it

20:53realistic

20:53for

20:5310 to

20:5410

20:54countries

20:54of

20:55ASEAN

20:55to

20:55actually

20:56embark

20:56on

20:56APG

20:57with

20:58the

20:58same

20:58amount

20:59of

20:59investments

20:59not

21:00just

21:00financially

21:00but

21:01also

21:01in

21:01terms

21:01of

21:01spirit

21:02and

21:02political

21:02will

21:04I'm

21:05agree

21:06that

21:08APG

21:08seems to

21:09be

21:09a

21:10very

21:11good

21:12group

21:12but

21:13in

21:13terms

21:13of

21:14implementation

21:15I

21:16think

21:16that

21:16every

21:17country

21:17is

21:18having

21:19a

21:19kind

21:19of

21:20in

21:21this

21:21moment

21:22a

21:23kind

21:23of

21:23self

21:24protection

21:25systems

21:25for

21:28energy

21:29crisis

21:30so

21:31for

21:32Thailand

21:32it is

21:33more likely

21:34to be

21:36a part

21:37of the

21:38emerging

21:39network

21:40for

21:41the

21:42interconnecting

21:43of

21:44the

21:45APG

21:46for

21:47the

21:48politically

21:49of course

21:50but

21:50I'm

21:51also

21:52wonder

21:52that

21:53the

21:53implementation

21:54for

21:54the

21:54sustainable

21:55for

21:57the

21:58ASEAN

21:59power

21:59grid

22:00or the

22:00APG

22:00will be

22:01facing

22:02another

22:03challenge

22:04of the

22:05implementation

22:06for the

22:07policy

22:08maker

22:08now

22:09we look

22:09to

22:09the

22:10whole

22:10of

22:11the

22:11region

22:11that

22:13we

22:14were

22:15facing

22:16of

22:17course

22:17previously

22:18the

22:18COVID-19

22:19now

22:20we

22:20are

22:20facing

22:21the

22:21energy

22:22resources

22:22what

22:24who

22:25is

22:26the

22:26ASEAN

22:28leader

22:28at the

22:29moment

22:29who

22:30can

22:30call

22:31that

22:31we

22:31have

22:32to

22:32be

22:32united

22:33together

22:34you

22:35know

22:35for

22:37surviving

22:38in

22:39this

22:39situation

22:40therefore

22:41I

22:42think

22:42from

22:42my

22:42point

22:43of

22:43view

22:43that

22:44it

22:45need

22:45to

22:45be

22:46a

22:47kind

22:48of

22:48concrete

22:51implementation

22:52that

22:53we

22:55have

22:55to

22:56come

22:56out

22:57and

22:57analyze

22:58what

22:58are

22:59the

22:59bottom

23:00nets

23:00for

23:01the

23:01APG

23:01between

23:02the

23:03members

23:04of

23:05the

23:05ASEAN

23:06right

23:07Professor

23:08Mizan

23:09in a

23:09crisis

23:10situation

23:10especially

23:11to what

23:12extent

23:12will

23:12countries

23:13prioritize

23:14their own

23:14national

23:14interest

23:15as

23:15Dr.

23:16Bandit

23:16mentioned

23:16just

23:16now

23:18how

23:19should

23:20ASEAN

23:21and

23:21the

23:22APG

23:23work

23:24around

23:25the

23:25possible

23:26rise

23:26or

23:27the

23:27wave

23:27of

23:27energy

23:28nationalism

23:29in

23:29ASEAN

23:31yeah

23:32actually

23:34it's

23:35something

23:35very

23:35tricky

23:36not

23:37that

23:37easy

23:38to

23:39achieve

23:39because

23:41of

23:42our

23:43dependency

23:43towards

23:44different

23:45countries

23:46which

23:47is

23:47very

23:47big

23:47also

23:48because

23:48we

23:49have

23:49wildly

23:49different

23:50economic

23:50priorities

23:51and

23:51we

23:51are

23:51at

23:51different

23:51stages

23:52of

23:52economic

23:52development

23:53unlike

23:53the

23:53EU

23:54for

23:54example

23:54yes

23:55right

23:55you

23:56are

23:56right

23:56absolutely

23:56right

23:57for

23:58example

23:58also

23:58Malaysia

23:59even

23:59though

23:59we

23:59are

24:00oil

24:00producer

24:01but

24:01not

24:02that

24:02much

24:02and

24:03quality

24:03also

24:04different

24:04so

24:04we

24:05tend

24:06to

24:06export

24:07more

24:07than

24:08use

24:09for

24:09local

24:09for

24:10domestic

24:10use

24:10and

24:11then

24:11we

24:11import

24:12which

24:12is

24:13a

24:13different

24:13quality

24:14of

24:14oil

24:14for

24:15the

24:15domestic

24:15use

24:16so

24:16also

24:17different

24:18different

24:18countries

24:19for

24:19example

24:19Vietnam

24:20also

24:21Indonesia

24:21so

24:22they

24:23have

24:23a

24:23different

24:24focus

24:25for

24:25their

24:27industry

24:27so

24:28now

24:29to

24:32nationalize

24:33energy

24:33and also

24:34oil

24:35petroleum

24:36for

24:36domestic

24:37use

24:37I

24:38think

24:38it will

24:39left

24:39some

24:40countries

24:40in

24:40a

24:41very

24:41big

24:42problem

24:43because

24:44they are

24:44not ready

24:45to

24:45do that

24:46kind

24:46of

24:46thing

24:46so

24:47I

24:48think

24:48that

24:48can

24:49be

24:49done

24:50but

24:50need

24:50times

24:51something

24:52which

24:52is

24:52we

24:53should

24:54now

24:54back

24:55to

24:55what

24:55I

24:56told

24:56you

24:56in

24:57the

24:57beginning

24:57of

24:58our

24:58discussion

24:58like

24:59I

24:59said

25:00we

25:00should

25:00have

25:01long

25:01term

25:01and

25:02short

25:02term

25:02short

25:03term

25:03now

25:04is

25:04how

25:04to

25:04encounter

25:05the

25:05issue

25:05the

25:05problem

25:06with

25:06all

25:07those

25:07kind

25:07of

25:07initiative

25:08EV

25:10using

25:11coal

25:12for

25:14electricity

25:14work

25:15from

25:16home

25:16less

25:16working

25:17days

25:18all

25:18those

25:19kind

25:19of

25:19things

25:19can

25:19be

25:20done

25:21but

25:22for

25:22the

25:23long

25:23time

25:23yes

25:23I

25:24do

25:24agree

25:25we

25:25can

25:25do

25:26so

25:26called

25:27nationalize

25:28the

25:28energy

25:29or

25:29the

25:30petroleum

25:30those

25:30kind

25:31of

25:31thing

25:31but

25:31some

25:32countries

25:32which

25:33have

25:33no

25:33petroleum

25:34or

25:35not

25:35much

25:35or

25:35they

25:36been

25:36set up

25:37as

25:37the

25:38country

25:38who

25:39meant

25:39for

25:40oil

25:41production

25:41and

25:42for

25:42export

25:42not

25:42for

25:43local

25:44use

25:44so

25:44it

25:45needs

25:45time

25:45and

25:46I

25:46think

25:47there

25:48will

25:48be

25:48another

25:48issue

25:49even

25:49certain

25:50countries

25:51in the

25:51Middle East

25:51right now

25:52also

25:52they

25:52have to

25:53increase

25:53their

25:54oil price

25:56because

25:57of the

25:57global

25:58impact

25:59because

26:00of this

26:00war

26:00despite

26:01despite

26:01the

26:01fact

26:02that

26:02they

26:02are

26:02producers

26:02themselves

26:03yes

26:04yes

26:04they

26:04are

26:04producers

26:05by

26:05themselves

26:05but

26:06the

26:07oil

26:07price

26:07in

26:08I

26:08know

26:08in

26:10UAE

26:10and also

26:11Kuwait

26:12they

26:12are much

26:12higher

26:13than

26:13even

26:13Malaysia

26:13so

26:14this

26:15is

26:15something

26:15which

26:16is

26:16the

26:17whole

26:17world

26:17has

26:17been

26:18meant

26:18in

26:19a

26:19different

26:20way

26:20then

26:20suddenly

26:20if

26:21we

26:21want

26:21to

26:21change

26:22in

26:22need

26:22times

26:22so

26:23we

26:23should

26:24give

26:24ample

26:25time

26:25and

26:26should

26:26be

26:26lies

26:27on

26:27the

26:27long

26:28term

26:28not

26:28on

26:29the

26:29short

26:29term

26:29short

26:30term

26:30need

26:30different

26:31way

26:31to

26:31encounter

26:32this

26:32yeah

26:33right

26:33and

26:34so

26:34one

26:34of the

26:34many

26:35initiatives

26:35on

26:36a

26:36country

26:37level

26:37or

26:37on

26:37ASEAN

26:38level

26:38is

26:39the

26:39APG

26:40ASEAN

26:41Power

26:41Grid

26:42and

26:42Dr.

26:43Tia

26:57I'm gonna

26:58put you

26:59a bit

26:59in a spot

27:00here

27:01because

27:02like

27:02many other

27:03ASEAN

27:04initiatives

27:04the APG

27:05has been

27:05slow

27:05it has

27:06faced

27:06challenges

27:07but

27:08in times

27:08of a

27:09crisis

27:09one

27:09of two

27:10things

27:10could

27:10happen

27:11countries

27:12would

27:12finally

27:12kind

27:13of

27:13push

27:14and

27:14nudge

27:14themselves

27:14to

27:16get

27:16over

27:17the

27:17hurdle

27:17and

27:17work

27:18together

27:18because

27:18they

27:18don't

27:19have

27:19choice

27:19or

27:20they

27:21could

27:21even

27:21break

27:22away

27:22even

27:22further

27:23they

27:23could

27:24be

27:25even

27:25more

27:25protectionist

27:26of their

27:26energy

27:27policies

27:28which

27:29one

27:29do you

27:29think

27:30is

27:30more

27:30likely

27:30to

27:30happen

27:31I

27:32think

27:32I

27:33choose

27:33to

27:34maybe

27:34work

27:35together

27:35for

27:36example

27:36between

27:37Indonesia

27:38we have

27:39the good

27:39resource

27:39and

27:40Malaysia

27:40maybe

27:41have

27:41good

27:41technology

27:42to

27:42the

27:43refinery

27:43to

27:44maybe

27:45collaborate

27:45each other

27:46between

27:46Indonesia

27:46and

27:46Malaysia

27:47is

27:47good

27:47not

27:48competitor

27:48I

27:49think

27:49this is

27:49how to

27:50strengthen

27:50this region

27:51how to

27:52strengthen

27:52the

27:52ASEAN

27:53countries

27:53and

27:54Thailand

27:54also

27:55maybe

27:55we can

27:56collaborate

27:56each

27:56other

27:57how to

27:57build

27:58the

27:58system

27:58the

27:59energy

27:59system

27:59here

28:00and

28:00so

28:01the

28:01next

28:01generations

28:02we

28:02cannot

28:02depend

28:03on

28:03again

28:03to

28:04the

28:04resource

28:04from

28:05the

28:05Middle East

28:05to

28:05Asia

28:06to

28:06the

28:06ASEAN

28:07countries

28:07to

28:09Southeast

28:10Asia

28:10I

28:11think

28:12this is

28:12the

28:12maybe

28:13we have

28:14to

28:14maybe

28:15discuss

28:16together

28:16between

28:17our

28:17leaders

28:17our

28:18president

28:18prime

28:19minister

28:19how to

28:20work

28:20together

28:20to

28:21maybe

28:21build

28:22the

28:22energy

28:22system

28:23or

28:23maybe

28:24including

28:24the

28:24renewable

28:25energy

28:25building

28:26like

28:26the

28:27solar

28:27panel

28:27and

28:28then

28:28wind

28:28energy

28:29and

28:29another

28:30resource

28:31to

28:32helping

28:33to

28:34the

28:34economic

28:34development

28:35in

28:35ASEAN

28:36countries

28:36it is

28:37so

28:37I

28:38think

28:38for

28:38the

28:38next

28:39generation

28:39not

28:40only

28:40depend

28:40on

28:40fossil

28:41energy

28:42but

28:42how

28:43to

28:43the

28:43ASEAN

28:44countries

28:44with

28:44the

28:44energy

28:45system

28:45here

28:45in

28:46ASEAN

28:46countries

28:46I

28:47think

28:48the

28:48good

28:49system

28:50good

28:50company

28:51like

28:51the

28:51Petronas

28:51is

28:51good

28:52company

28:52and

28:53appreciate

28:54for

28:54the

28:54Petronas

28:55for

28:56the

28:56last

28:56now

28:56for

28:57the

28:57now

28:58recently

28:58it's

28:59different

29:00with

29:00the

29:00last

29:00decade

29:01I

29:01think

29:01Pertamina

29:02for

29:03example

29:03Indonesia

29:04can

29:05collaborate

29:06and

29:06can

29:06see

29:07how

29:07Petronas

29:08increase

29:09significantly

29:09for

29:11the

29:11system

29:11for

29:11the

29:12technology

29:12maybe

29:13for

29:13the

29:13next

29:14we

29:14can

29:14collaborate

29:15between

29:16Malaysia

29:16Indonesia

29:17Thailand

29:18and

29:19many

29:19countries

29:19in

29:20Southeast

29:20Asia

29:20as

29:21you

29:22mentioned

29:22the

29:22leaders

29:22of

29:23both

29:23our

29:23countries

29:23have

29:24met

29:24Prime

29:24Minister

29:24Anwar

29:25and

29:25President

29:25Papaw

29:25recently

29:26met

29:26and

29:26I'm

29:27sure

29:27that

29:28that's

29:28the

29:29top

29:29of

29:29the

29:30agenda

29:30in terms

29:30of

29:30what

29:31they

29:31were

29:31discussing

29:32but

29:33Dr.

29:34Bandit

29:35why are we

29:36not seeing

29:36this more

29:37on a

29:38regional level

29:38on ASEAN

29:39level

29:39instead of

29:40a

29:40bilateral

29:40country-to-country

29:41level

29:41I

29:43I think

29:44I think

29:45we need

29:46to

29:46analyze

29:48very

29:49strong

29:50concretely

29:52that

29:52we need

29:53the country

29:54leadership

29:55to make

29:56a concrete

29:57initiative

29:58so I think

30:00this

30:00the crisis

30:02we

30:03know

30:04that we

30:04are

30:05big

30:06enough

30:07I mean

30:08that in

30:08terms of

30:09regional

30:12marketing

30:13that can

30:14be

30:14bargaining

30:15what you

30:17call

30:17the

30:17superpower

30:18from both

30:19sides

30:20that you

30:20have been

30:20mentioned

30:21from China

30:22from Europe

30:23from the

30:23West

30:23from the

30:24America

30:24but of course

30:25I think

30:26that this

30:26need to

30:28be

30:28you know

30:29having a

30:30kind of

30:31a leadership

30:32who can

30:33build

30:34the

30:35policy

30:36maker

30:36who can

30:37build

30:37the

30:39government

30:40that

30:41ASEAN

30:42should

30:43concretely

30:44work

30:44together

30:45in terms

30:45of

30:46this

30:46particular

30:47crisis

30:48and the

30:48long-term

30:49planning

30:50for

30:50our

30:52problems

30:53I think

30:53that in

30:54case

30:54that we

30:54are sharing

30:55each other

30:57the expertise

30:58from each

30:58other

30:59I think

31:00that will

31:01be another

31:01scenario

31:02another move

31:03or another

31:04change

31:04of the

31:05our

31:06such

31:06change

31:07in a

31:07different

31:08manner

31:09of course

31:11we need

31:12we need

31:12some

31:13country

31:14like

31:14you know

31:14of course

31:15the

31:16Indonesia

31:17as a

31:18one of the

31:20largest

31:20countries

31:21and also

31:22the human

31:23resources

31:24from Singapore

31:24Malaysia

31:25and Thailand

31:26and of

31:27course

31:27we have

31:28to look

31:28to our

31:29neighbor

31:30that

31:30facing

31:32the

31:33challenges

31:33like

31:34you know

31:34Laos

31:35that they

31:35have

31:36landlocked

31:37and also

31:37Myanmar

31:38these also

31:39you know

31:39producing

31:40the electricity

31:41to Thailand

31:41and this

31:42that's why

31:43you know

31:43Thailand

31:44didn't

31:44you know

31:44supply

31:45oil

31:46and the

31:47phuang to

31:48to

31:49Laos

31:50and Myanmar

31:51as well

31:51yeah

31:52I think

31:53most would

31:53agree

31:54that

31:55working together

31:56is the

31:57ideal way

31:58forward

31:58but

31:58I'm going to

31:59try and play

31:59a bit of a

32:00devil's advocate

32:00role here

32:01a bit more

32:02realist

32:03kind of

32:03Machiavellian

32:04role here

32:04Professor

32:05Mizan

32:06the ASEAN

32:07consensus

32:08ASEAN

32:08centrality

32:09model

32:09may be

32:10good

32:10outside

32:11of a

32:11conflict

32:11maybe even

32:12be

32:12may even

32:12be

32:13effective

32:13outside

32:13of a

32:13conflict

32:14but

32:15in a

32:15crisis

32:15situation

32:16like

32:16this

32:16does

32:17it

32:17cause

32:19us

32:19to be

32:20slow

32:20to

32:21act

32:22yeah

32:23okay

32:24actually

32:25yeah

32:26we are

32:27facing

32:27right now

32:28as one

32:29of the

32:29like

32:30you know

32:30IR

32:31theory

32:32that should

32:32be in

32:33practice

32:33Machiavellian

32:34realism

32:35okay

32:36those kind

32:36of thing

32:37yes

32:37I think

32:39it's more

32:40on

32:41I think

32:41right now

32:42for Asian

32:43it's on

32:43liberalism

32:44which is

32:45they try

32:45to

32:46play with

32:47the thin

32:49line

32:49between

32:50these two

32:50superpowers

32:51which is

32:52the two

32:52blocks

32:52come from

32:53west

32:54and also

32:54east

32:54and for

32:56south east

32:57Asian

32:57or Asian

32:58particularly

32:59they try

32:59to

33:00mental

33:01with

33:02these

33:03two

33:03superpowers

33:04at best

33:06possible

33:06that's

33:07why

33:08we can

33:09see

33:09even

33:10though

33:10our

33:11dependency

33:11towards

33:14Hormuz

33:14trade

33:15also

33:16to the

33:16middle east

33:18oil

33:18which is

33:18very

33:19very big

33:19but

33:20at the

33:20same time

33:21we can

33:21see

33:21some

33:22countries

33:23they are

33:23very clever

33:24in

33:25doing

33:26a good

33:27business

33:28with

33:29these

33:29countries

33:30and

33:31like

33:31Malaysia

33:32for

33:32example

33:32I

33:33think

33:33we

33:34have

33:34to

33:34admit

33:34that

33:35how

33:35smart

33:36the

33:36Prime Minister

33:38Anwar Ibrahim

33:38and get

33:39the clearance

33:41from

33:41Iran

33:42Iranian

33:42government

33:43to

33:43ship

33:44the

33:44oil

33:44tanker

33:45out

33:45from

33:45Hormuz

33:46without

33:46any

33:47issues

33:47and

33:47come

33:48back

33:48to

33:48the

33:48country

33:48and

33:49also

33:49some

33:50countries

33:50also

33:51now

33:51we

33:51can

33:51see

33:52they

33:53already

33:53start

33:53to have

33:54more

33:55talk

33:55and

33:55discussion

33:56towards

33:57the

33:58Iranian

33:59government

33:59the

34:00one

34:00who

34:00hold

34:01the

34:01key

34:01for

34:02Hormuz

34:02trade

34:03and

34:03also

34:04those

34:04who

34:04just

34:05keep

34:05silent

34:06and

34:06don't

34:07do

34:07anything

34:08will

34:08be

34:08in

34:08big

34:08trouble

34:09because

34:10the

34:11oil

34:12that

34:12we

34:12need

34:12is

34:13something

34:13that

34:14essential

34:15it

34:15can

34:16create

34:16a

34:18prosper

34:18and

34:19also

34:19a

34:20good

34:20for

34:20political

34:21situation

34:22for

34:22the

34:22country

34:23and

34:23also

34:23it

34:23might

34:24give

34:24a

34:24very

34:25bad

34:26impact

34:26and

34:27I

34:27think

34:27some

34:28countries

34:28if

34:28we

34:29not

34:29contain

34:30and

34:30the

34:30war

34:30hasn't

34:31stopped

34:31in

34:31a

34:32very

34:32short

34:32period

34:33so

34:33some

34:34countries

34:34might

34:34be

34:34in

34:35big

34:35trouble

34:35chaos

34:36and

34:36the

34:37government

34:37might

34:37be

34:37bring

34:38down

34:38by

34:38the

34:39people

34:39on

34:39the

34:39street

34:40so

34:40I

34:41think

34:41the

34:41best

34:42possible

34:42right

34:42now

34:42is

34:43go

34:43for

34:43liberalism

34:44which

34:44is

34:44we

34:44have

34:44to

34:45be

34:45good

34:46with

34:46Iran

34:46and

34:47at

34:47the

34:47same

34:47time

34:48we

34:48shouldn't

34:48left

34:49the

34:49situation

34:50with

34:51America

34:52and

34:52we

34:53know

34:53that

34:53sometimes

34:58from

34:59the

34:59beginning

34:59of

35:00ART

35:01if

35:01Luqman

35:02remember

35:02I

35:03said

35:03this

35:04is

35:04like

35:04a

35:04one-sided

35:06decision

35:06done

35:07by

35:07Trump

35:08not

35:08by

35:08the

35:08Congress

35:09and

35:09it

35:10might

35:10be

35:11sidelined

35:11by

35:11the

35:11Congress

35:12yet

35:12after

35:12few

35:13years

35:13after

35:13two

35:14years

35:14after

35:14lots

35:15of

35:15energy

35:15lot

35:16of

35:16money

35:16lots

35:17of

35:17time

35:18everything

35:19have

35:19been

35:19spent

35:19and

35:19finally

35:20scrapped

35:20out

35:21by

35:21the

35:21Congress

35:21so

35:22the

35:22same

35:22thing

35:23might

35:23happen

35:23for

35:24this

35:24war

35:24as

35:25well

35:25so

35:25I

35:26think

35:26that's

35:26why

35:26we

35:27should

35:27not

35:27lean

35:28to

35:28any

35:29party

35:29and

35:29we

35:30shouldn't

35:31be

35:31like

35:32a

35:32so-called

35:33realism

35:34which is

35:34we think

35:35that

35:35we are

35:35the best

35:36we can

35:36manage

35:37everything

35:37by

35:37ourselves

35:38but

35:39later on

35:39the

35:40government

35:40might

35:40be

35:40in

35:41big

35:42trouble

35:42so

35:42liberalism

35:43be

35:44good

35:46non-partism

35:47non-block

35:48that

35:49will be

35:49the best

35:50method

35:50to

35:51contain

35:52this

35:52issue

35:52right

35:53now

35:53sure

35:53I

35:54mean

35:54not in

35:54terms

35:55of

35:55each

35:55country

35:56thinking

35:56they're

35:56the

35:56best

35:56but

35:57realism

35:57in

35:57terms

35:57of

35:58the

35:58country

35:58has

35:59or

35:59the

35:59government

35:59has

35:59to

35:59prioritize

36:00its own

36:01national

36:01interests

36:01first

36:02especially

36:02in the

36:02event

36:02that

36:03it

36:03is

36:03perceived

36:04that

36:04said

36:05national

36:05interests

36:06do not

36:07align

36:07with

36:07the

36:08ASEAN

36:08region's

36:09interest

36:09just

36:10one

36:10follow-up

36:10for

36:11you

36:11Prof.

36:11Mizan

36:12yeah

36:13the

36:13balancing

36:13game

36:14is

36:14famous

36:14I

36:15think

36:15ASEAN

36:15Malaysia

36:16collectively

36:17ASEAN

36:17we've

36:18been doing

36:18a very

36:18good

36:18job

36:25I

36:25think

36:25we've

36:25been

36:26Zopfan

36:26since

36:26the

36:2660s

36:27zone

36:27of

36:27peace

36:28freedom

36:28and

36:29neutrality

36:29but

36:30in a

36:30world

36:31where

36:32it's

36:33getting

36:33more

36:33unpredictable

36:35do

36:36you

36:36think

36:36it's

36:37too

36:37pessimistic

36:37to

36:37think

36:38that

36:38there's

36:38a

36:38timer

36:39on

36:39that

36:39in

36:40terms

36:40of

36:40we

36:40will

36:40not

36:40be

36:41able

36:41to

36:41do

36:41that

36:42for

36:42that

36:43much

36:43longer

36:44and

36:44ASEAN

36:45or

36:45the

36:45countries

36:45of

36:46ASEAN

36:46would

36:46eventually

36:47be

36:47forced

36:48to

36:48pick

36:49a

36:49side

36:55of

37:05the

37:05end

37:05of

37:05end

37:05of

37:05one

37:06and

37:19a

37:19about

37:19a

37:19second

37:20one

37:20.

37:50.

38:20.

38:50.

38:51.

38:52.

38:58.

39:00.

39:01.

39:12Right, Prof, you've plucked a few examples out of my mind.

39:14I think ASEAN is a good platform in terms of being reactive to conflicts or would-be conflicts.

39:22The most recent one being the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia.

39:26You also have the crisis in Myanmar.

39:29You also have, like you mentioned, the independence movement of Timor-Leste back in the day.

39:34But the criticism is that it's not an effective platform for further modernization to move forward.

39:42It's more towards, you know, like firefighting, if I may use a crude word.

39:47So, Dr. Tia, the prevailing assumption has always been,

39:51because when we go back to ASEAN solidarity, ASEAN power grid,

39:54how we should navigate out of this and look to be self-sustaining in terms of energy collectively as ASEAN.

40:01The prevailing thought has always been,

40:03because these countries are not at the same level of economic advancements.

40:08Therefore, they are not, they don't exactly have the same economic interests.

40:13But if we want to use that assumption, then it's going to take a long time.

40:19Because Malaysia will take some time to get to the economic development level of Singapore, for example.

40:23LAR will take a long time to get to the economic development level of Malaysia and so on and so

40:28forth.

40:28So, this is obviously not something that can be done quickly or even fairly quickly.

40:34So, what else can we do?

40:35What other motivations are there for the 10 ASEAN member states to actually do away with nationalism

40:43and start working together?

40:45Because only then are we really effective, including in this conflict, including when it comes to energy security.

40:51Okay, I think the solution is each leader in ASEAN countries have to pay attention and focus on the regionalism

40:59issues.

41:00In Indonesia, like the President Jokowi, under the President Jokowi,

41:06the situation code is the, you know, like the don't to add diplomacy.

41:11Don't to add diplomacy, it means like the leader in one country pay attention to the regionalism,

41:17then they pay attention to another region.

41:20So, maybe for the solutions, next ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines and others.

41:30So, maybe please focus on the regionalism issues and then how to strengthen the economic development there.

41:38And such as like the free visa, for example.

41:42I think it is good.

41:43It is good policy, I think.

41:45Free visa and then how to secure the system in ASEAN and then to support each other.

41:51And like the second visa in European countries.

41:54So, maybe we can compare between the ASEAN region and the European countries region, EU region.

42:02So, I think EU is good.

42:04Yeah.

42:04And finally, the British exit from this region.

42:07I think that ASEAN is more solid than the EU.

42:10And maybe next, maybe the strengthen the free threat area, export, import and others.

42:16And so, the all countries in ASEAN have to prioritize the ASEAN first than the other regions.

42:25Maybe this is my recommendation, my suggestions.

42:28What are your thoughts, Dr. Bandit?

42:30How do we ensure that there's motivation despite probably clashing or at least inconsistent national interest and economic levels of

42:39advancements?

42:40Take the APG, for example.

42:41Where are the bottlenecks?

42:43Is it at the individual government level or the policy level or level of trust between countries?

42:48Yeah.

42:49Together, Mas Lukman, between the government level and then the, including the society, including the public, I think.

42:56I have to solid how to the integration in ASEAN countries, not only from the government level, but the public

43:02also.

43:02So, yeah, maybe like the little bit issue like the culture, I think, is the ignorance.

43:09But we have to solid to all conditions in ASEAN.

43:13So, I think this is the solution how to face when the, for example, conflict happened in the Middle East.

43:19So, I think if the ASEAN integrated is very good.

43:23So, I think the ASEAN can build very well and can face the conflict from the other regions.

43:31Right.

43:32Dr. Bandit, what about you, APG, ASEAN Power Grid, where are we and where are we not in terms of

43:38the bottlenecks?

43:39Yes.

43:40So, I think from the point of view for the bottlenecks, I think that I might be a suggestion for

43:48the key dimension.

43:50First is that we have to analyze that the leadership, we need the leadership of ASEAN.

43:59Then we need the common ideology of the ASEAN.

44:08And then we need the follower of ASEAN.

44:13It means that, from my point of view, of course, ASEAN is quite strong, but this is kind of loose

44:21connection between countries with the countries.

44:23Of course, now, when we look to different issues like the borders issues and also the, especially for now, nowadays,

44:38the certain between the certain of border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia is still a little bit of tensions.

44:45So, I think that this is also another scenario that ASEAN should really take into action that how to settle.

44:54Of course, I think that most of the Thai citizens and also the ASEAN will not feel to see that

45:04the ASEAN become the, you know, the fire of the border conflicts and also many, they cause a lot of

45:12investment in terms of the state security.

45:16Look to this scenario. Now, we have to look to the things that any happen to the ASEAN, we have

45:25to see that who will be setting the issue, who will be addressing the issue.

45:32We need to, we need to find out, you know, the concrete solution for the leadership, for the ASEAN solutions

45:43that everyone needs to be setting in, especially in this situation.

45:49We also thinking that for Thailand perspective, we also thinking look more to the East.

45:58Look more to the East means that we will be more realizing all the countries where they are not entering

46:06into the arms conflicts that will be, you know, kind of economic corporations, trade.

46:16But of course, we, we have to concern about oil and gas that will be another, you know, things that

46:26everyone is facing.

46:29So, this is the, the, the, the things, three criteria that the bottleneck should, should, should come up together with

46:38these, at least these three dimensions.

46:40Right. Prof. Mizan, I think it's no secret that amongst the 10 member states of ASEAN, there are some countries

46:48who are, who, who skew more towards China, for example.

46:51There are some countries who skew more towards the US, despite our best intentions to stay as neutral as possible.

46:58But, but that's the reality on ground today. So, if we want to actually, you know, put all our chips

47:05in on ASEAN, so to speak.

47:07We want to actually work together better and be fully self-dependent at an ASEAN level. Does this individual, I

47:17don't want to say allegiance, but individual, you know,

47:20inclination towards either US or China, how does this complicate us improving integration within ASEAN itself? Is it contradictory? Does

47:32it make it more complicated?

47:35Okay. I think we have to back to our ASEAN spirit. So, yeah, since independence and since the establishment of

47:46ASEAN until now, there are lots of talk and also agreement, plan and whatsoever have been laid down.

47:53And I think we still, I think we still need to maintain our good relationship with both bloc, which is

48:03East and also West. But at the same time, I think these three things have to be strengthened.

48:07The first one is we have our framework called ASEAN framework agreement on petroleum security or APSA. So, this one

48:17have to be strengthened again. So, between ASEAN countries, we should go further like European Union, for example, or Middle

48:29Eastern countries or whatever, which is the bloc is not only talking about cultural, you know, cooperation, language,

48:37cooperation, security cooperation, security cooperation, but now we should go to petroleum and also energy cooperation between countries. Second, we

48:46have to also strengthen again about the APG, which is ASEAN power grid, which is have been mentioned in our

48:52last widely discussed in our last ASEAN meeting. And I think it should be strengthened again in our next meeting

48:59as well. So, this one have to be accelerated. I think we need to be prepared with this current situation,

49:07geopolitical,

49:08looks like this thing should be at front. We need to be prepared to be ready and we have to

49:15also embark on not only fossil fuel as a main energy for producing the power, but using the green technology,

49:31renewable technology, coal as a alternative as well. And also the nuclear, which is the

49:37nuclear energy also need to be discussed. And the third one, I think we need to go back to our,

49:45one of our key discussion among ASEAN, which is a trans-ASEAN, they call it trans-ASEAN gas pipeline, which

49:55is we are already now we have between Thailand and also Malaysia. All right. How we share the gas between

50:03two countries. And it should be also goes beyond that, which is our

50:07up to Myanmar, Laos, Thai, Cambodia, and then we go to Singapore and also Indonesia. So, if we can strengthen

50:15at least these three things,

50:17main thing issue, and I think we will be ready for the upcoming problems and geopolitical conflict and what so

50:24things. Yeah. All right. Dr. Tia, I think as I've mentioned just now, conflicts can either bring out the best

50:34in us or the worst in us, right? It's either we band together more or every man for himself. I

50:39mean, that's just being realistic, but we want to be optimistic, right? So, sometimes hard times push us to do

50:45something that probably we didn't want to do before because we have no choice, right?

50:49So, how optimistic or pessimistic are you that this recent conflict would finally give the nudge for each ASEAN leader

50:59to maybe do away with the national interest to a certain extent and really pursue meaningful ASEAN integration, whether be

51:07it from the energy security side or any other perspective?

51:11Yeah. Yeah. I think so-so between pessimistic and optimistic because, you know, Mas Lukman, for example, yesterday, maybe, the

51:23PM Malaysia meeting with our president, Prabowo, and this one show us that maybe

51:31can be discussed together between our leaders because the Malaysia finally allowed it by the Iran, Malaysia ship, yeah, passed

51:41to Harpo Street, and finally, Indonesia is failed, unfortunately, and this one, the engagement diplomatic relations

51:49within the Malaysia and Iran is good relations, and our government have to maybe learn from the European. So, this

51:57one, maybe, yeah, I mentioned again, this is the social.

52:0150-50-50 optimistic and pessimistic because the defense on leader in each country, I think, your leader for this

52:10conflict, I think, he is smart, yeah, it's very smart because how to create the diplomatic relations with Iran and

52:20finally,

52:20I think, you know, I think, you know, success, Iran allowed the Malaysia ship to pass the Harpo Street.

52:26Right. And how about the ship from Indonesia? We are, honestly, we are disappointed with the, with our policy.

52:35And this one may be the political interest in each country in ASEAN.

52:41And this is the reason why I mentioned so-so 50-50.

52:45Because I think this is related to maybe the decisions of our leader.

52:50I appreciate your honest answer, but I think this highlights again

52:53the need to sometimes move as a bloc, right?

52:55If you can't, if moving individually doesn't get you anywhere meaningful,

52:59you have to move as a bloc.

53:00I think this discussion came about when Trump first introduced a terrorist,

53:04for example, whether we need to move together as a bloc.

53:07But Dr. Bandit, it's the same question to you.

53:10Might you be more optimistic or pessimistic that ASEAN will finally kind of

53:15nudge itself more meaningfully forward following this conflict?

53:20I think that it should be, ASEAN should call the emergency meeting

53:25in order to find out the concrete unity,

53:33especially for this cooperation of the energy crisis.

53:39Yes, they haven't, right, as of now?

53:42Yes, of course.

53:43And then we need to follow up the implementation, of course,

53:50that what we can share in the cooperation between the ASEAN members.

53:54For Thailand also, looking after some of the analysis from Thailand now,

54:01try to propose that, of course, now we are trapped to the coming of the state of Hormuz.

54:09And the analysis from Thailand,

54:13and try to suggest the government that why not we deal with Iran,

54:20waiving from the Americans, at least to have survival in these situations.

54:27That's why we need to think that come up that in terms of the ASEAN bloc,

54:35mean that talking with the both of the parties that can be, you know,

54:42seeing the opportunity.

54:44Because I think that America and also the Iran may be interested to the ASEAN as well

54:51in many other issues, we have to look after to ourselves that what is the prominent

54:57and what is the good thing that we are.

54:59We can be all together and be, you know, negotiating for our own benefit

55:05as a whole of the regions.

55:07So I think that this should be a thing,

55:10initiative in terms of, you know, protecting ourselves.

55:15Thank you so much, Dr. Bandit, Kapungkap.

55:18Terima kasih, Prof. Mizan and Dr. Tia.

55:21I would love for this conversation to have at least half hour more.

55:26But time and basis, maybe we'll get the next session moving forward

55:31because we'll definitely continue to monitor and update the developments in West Asia,

55:36in the Middle East, and how it affects ASEAN's energy security.

55:39Once again, thank you, Dr. Bandit Aroman,

55:41Head of Political Science and Lecturer of Security and Peace Management

55:45at Kirk University, Thailand.

55:46Prof. Mizan Aslam is an international security expert

55:50and Dr. Tia Mariatul Kiptia is an international relations expert

55:54at BINUS University, Indonesia.

55:55Thank you for watching Dialog Tiga Penjuru.

55:58See you later.

56:07Let's go.

56:08You

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