- 5 months ago
Amid the intensifying conflict between Iran and Israel, this episode looks at how instability in the Middle East impacts ASEAN countries and how far the ASEAN Political Security Community Strategic Plan can act as a blueprint for the bloc in navigating increasingly challenging geopolitical developments.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00I'm Nala Huda and you're tuning in to another edition of Dialogue ASEAN 25.
00:13The world's attention is of course now turned towards the intensifying conflict
00:17between Iran and Israel and now with the US in the picture.
00:21So on this episode of Dialogue ASEAN 25, we want to take a look at how this conflict,
00:27this instability in the Middle East might potentially impact Southeast Asia,
00:32how ASEAN might want to respond to this.
00:35And so on this episode of Dialogue ASEAN 25, we want to take a closer look at not just the conflict,
00:41but also at the ASEAN Political Security Community Strategic Plan 2025
00:47and how it might help the region in navigating this another geopolitical quagmire
00:55and other geopolitical issues as well.
00:58So to help us unpack some of these current developments
01:00and also to take a closer look at the ASEAN Political Security Community Strategic Plan,
01:06we have joining us Dr. Julia Brogni-Fart,
01:08Senior Lecturer at the School of Law and Governance at Telus University,
01:12Dr. Rustom Vansu, Senior Lecturer at the Institute of Peace Studies at Prince of Songklau University,
01:16and Dr. Farak Kimbeng, Professor of ASEAN Studies Institution,
01:21International Islamic University of Malaysia.
01:23Thank you so much to our panelists joining us today.
01:27Thank you for having us.
01:31So Dr. Julia, I think I want to start with you.
01:34Just, I guess, some of your general thoughts on recent developments with Iran, Israel,
01:40and now the US getting involved.
01:42Did you see this coming, or did this come as a surprise to you?
01:47I think that's a conversation that we could have alone for a couple of hours
01:52about everything that happened within this so-called 12-day war,
01:56as Donald Trump suggested to call it.
01:59There was indeed, there were tensions between Iran and Israel,
02:04hostility, rather to say no tensions, animosity,
02:08as well as between Iran and the United States.
02:11However, Iran, prior to the Israeli attacks,
02:15has been involved in another round of negotiations with the United States
02:19under Donald Trump,
02:21where the result was supposed to be something as a reiteration
02:26of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,
02:27or the so-called Iran deal that was agreed upon in 2015,
02:31and from which President Trump, during his first term,
02:35exited in 2018.
02:36In 2019, exactly one year after, in May,
02:41Iran also started to limit its obligations
02:44on this so-called Iran deal on GCPOA,
02:51in particular, enriching uranium to a higher percentage,
02:55introducing some of the new, more advanced centrifuges,
02:58and so on.
02:59For Israel, the case of animosity with Iran
03:04has been taking place since the Iran Revolution of 1979,
03:10even though they still preserved some of its cooperation
03:14for the years into the Iran-Iraq War,
03:17after the revolution.
03:19However, because one of the major premises
03:21of the newly created, newly established Islamic Republic
03:24was its anti-Israelism, anti-Israeli stance,
03:29this animosity started to build up.
03:33And within the Israeli society,
03:35right now we can see that society might be split
03:39on the issue of the war on Gaza,
03:42but when it comes to Iran and Israel doing everything
03:46what is necessary to provide for the security
03:48of Israel and its society,
03:51then the society is pretty much united.
03:53And this is because for a long time,
03:57this security narrative,
03:59securitization narrative was built around Iran
04:02as a major threat because the rhetoric is there.
04:05Sometimes there are chants such as death to Israel,
04:09death to America, which we hear in Iran.
04:12And there is also this controversial issue
04:14of Iran's nuclear threat,
04:16the possibility of Iran creating nuclear weapons,
04:20which it currently does not have.
04:22It was confirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency,
04:25IAA, and its chief, Rafael Grossi.
04:27However, in Israel,
04:30and the Trump administration echoed it,
04:33the sentiment is that,
04:34no, Iran has been lying all this time,
04:37and it has been acting in cahoots with the IAA,
04:40and it has been trying to build the bomb,
04:45in particular to drop it on Israel.
04:49So we could have seen it coming.
04:51The parties, the Israel,
04:53prepared this operation for years, probably.
04:56They were ready.
04:57They tried different scenarios,
04:59but so were Iranians looking at this potential threat.
05:02They also had a number of rehearsals,
05:04including on the, for example,
05:05blockade of Wormuz trade,
05:07something that we'll probably discuss later today.
05:10So this could have been coming.
05:14However, again,
05:15returning back to negotiations
05:17between Iran and the United States,
05:19it looked like a normal diplomatic process
05:22within which they were supposed to reach some solution,
05:26especially before this Iran nuclear deal
05:28would expire in October this year,
05:31and it would continue
05:33with the Islamic Republic in Iran in place,
05:37with Israel having its reservations.
05:40However, everybody staying where they are
05:44and treating each other peacefully,
05:46except for we put what's going on in Gaza
05:49and the West Bank as a separate matter.
05:52So it was quite a surprise
05:54that one, Israel decided to attack Iran directly,
05:59and two, that the United States,
06:02with President Trump saying otherwise,
06:05deciding to get engaged into this,
06:07in particular to bomb the nuclear facilities,
06:10the three nuclear facilities
06:11in Natanz, Fordo, and Esfahan.
06:17We can discuss the reasons why Trump has done this,
06:19but I guess it's beyond the scope
06:22of our today's conversation.
06:23So it was quite shocking.
06:26And unfortunately,
06:28I don't think we can consider
06:30that this truce,
06:33this ceasefire is going to be stable
06:36for even days or weeks to come
06:40due to a number of reasons.
06:42One, the goals of those operations
06:45by the United States and Israel
06:46are quite unclear
06:47what they were trying to achieve.
06:49Two, if the goal was, for example,
06:51to destroy the Iran's nuclear program,
06:54seems even that has not succeeded,
06:56because one, it would require
06:58the ground operation for that,
07:01which I don't think either of them
07:02is ready to engage in.
07:05And two, because Iran actually evacuated
07:08whatever equipment and stockpile
07:10of enriched uranium it had in those facilities,
07:12so the Iranian nuclear program remains
07:16more or less intact
07:18minus these facilities
07:19that could have been destroyed,
07:21but they could be rebuilt.
07:23So there are many moving parts.
07:25It's quite hard to understand
07:27what were the purposes of these operations,
07:29but I think that the forecast
07:32would be to cautiously watch
07:34if this is going to escalate
07:37and not even within a year
07:38where the United States, for example,
07:40decides that it needs to bomb
07:41Iran's nuclear program again
07:42in order to put another dent on it.
07:47And yeah, or any other idea
07:52comes to the minds of Israeli
07:54or American leadership
07:56on the possibility of regime change.
07:59or something like that.
08:00So the situation remains pretty unstable
08:03and I don't think we're out of the woods yet.
08:06Dr. Rustom, what are your thoughts?
08:08Did you see it escalating at this rate?
08:12Yes, first of all,
08:13we need to mention that
08:15Israel was the aggressor first
08:18and Iran was the one attacked.
08:22So when we consider the outcome of the war,
08:28the question,
08:29did Israel achieve its objectives
08:32and was Iran able to resist Israel?
08:38So Israel had three objectives in this war.
08:41The first one is eliminate Iran's ability
08:44to develop nuclear weapons.
08:47The second one is eliminate Iran's missile capabilities.
08:51And the third one is achieve regime change in Iran.
08:55However, in the end,
08:57Israel, in my opinion,
08:59was unable to achieve any of these three objectives
09:03while Iran maintained its vast missile arsenal
09:08with the capacity to strike Israel.
09:12But in my sense and in my opinion,
09:17all of these are predictable before.
09:20Things of in that way that in international game,
09:26there is no real boss
09:27telling everyone what to do.
09:30So every country's main goal is just to survive.
09:35Both Iran and Israel are scared to each other.
09:39So they're constantly trying to get more powerful
09:43than the others.
09:46From the view of like an offensive realism,
09:49Iran pushed to get nuclear weapons make sense
09:53in the world with no global rule,
09:56no global government.
09:58Every country wants to be strong and safe.
10:03So for Iran,
10:04nuclear weapons are the ultimate way
10:06to protect itself
10:07and gain more power in the region.
10:11Having nooks would make Iran harder to attack
10:16and give its more influence,
10:20especially over rival like Israel.
10:23But Israel strongly objects
10:25because a nuclear Iran
10:29would threaten its security and power.
10:32Israel already has nuclear weapons
10:34and doesn't want to lose its aid.
10:37That's why Israel has taken military action
10:40to stop Iran's nuclear program.
10:43The US support Israel
10:45because it doesn't want Iran
10:47to change the balance of power
10:50in the Middle East region.
10:52So yes, this kind of escalation was expected
10:56and for the power,
11:00power leads to the fear
11:01and fear leads to conflict,
11:03especially when nuclear weapons are involved.
11:08Dr. Julia,
11:08you mentioned a little bit
11:09about what some of the factors
11:11that could have explained why Trump did.
11:15So before we just go on
11:17to some of the impact,
11:19potential impact on Southeast Asia,
11:20I just want to quickly touch on
11:23some of, I guess,
11:24a little bit of the US domestic
11:26and foreign policy.
11:28Trump, I guess we can all see,
11:30was very clearly very frustrated
11:32with how Israel acted
11:36after the ceasefire was announced.
11:38I think even more so frustrated
11:39with Israel rather than Iran.
11:40And funnily enough,
11:42do you think that we could see
11:44this conflict potentially leading
11:45to a fallout
11:46or a major impact
11:49to the US and Israel's relations?
11:53I don't think so.
11:55I think Trump is a showman
11:56and this was a kind of a show
11:58that he put up.
12:00He thought that it's going to be
12:02a little victorious war.
12:03He could look good
12:05to not just to his own public,
12:08which is contentious,
12:09the US engagement
12:10at the foreign wars,
12:11but to the international public,
12:13yes, that's a fading away hegemon,
12:17which still can move figures
12:22on the board
12:23and achieve what it needs to.
12:26So it was meant to be
12:28this one-off kind of operation.
12:30And this is why we saw post
12:32this when Iran actually needed
12:34to respond to the Israeli strikes,
12:37but to the US strikes as well.
12:39The target for this chosen
12:42was also symbolic,
12:43the US base,
12:46Al-Odeid and Qatar,
12:48which was, I'm sure,
12:50agreed by all the parties
12:51between Qatar and the United States
12:54and between Qatar and Iran,
12:56that it is going to be
12:57the one to be sacrificed.
12:59That's why it was emptied also
13:00in advance so nobody could get hurt.
13:03So we could call it a day
13:05and exit it victoriously for Trump
13:08to put up the show
13:09that he could be a great mediator
13:13and fulfill at least one
13:15of his election promises,
13:17trying to eliminate threats,
13:19but at the same time
13:20not get US entangled
13:22into foreign wars.
13:23But then it might be as well
13:27a show his frustration
13:28with Benjamin Netanyahu,
13:30how that acted.
13:32And that could be said
13:33that Netanyahu responded
13:35to the Iranian strikes,
13:36which I think there was
13:38some confusion
13:38about the time of the ceasefire.
13:40So the Iranian strike
13:41and Israel had to respond.
13:43I do not see it leading
13:47to any rift
13:48in the US-Israeli relations.
13:50And in fact,
13:51any administration so far,
13:53Democratic, Republican,
13:54Trump, Obama, or whoever,
13:56was unconditionally
13:57supporting Israel.
13:59And I don't see that changing
14:01if it hasn't changed
14:02after what was happening in Gaza.
14:05And then if it hasn't changed
14:07with Israel violating
14:08the sovereignty of Iran,
14:11which goes against
14:12the international norms.
14:14So no, I don't foresee
14:16any rift between the two.
14:18Yeah.
14:18Now, we want to move
14:19to how this might potentially
14:21impact Southeast Asia.
14:23Dr. Farr, maybe you can
14:24perhaps share
14:26some of your thoughts
14:27if this conflict
14:28were to go on
14:29for much longer,
14:30were to stretch out.
14:31How do you see this
14:32potentially causing
14:34some effect
14:35or some impact
14:36on Southeast Asia?
14:38I'm assuming that
14:39you are referring to
14:40the conflict
14:40in the Middle East
14:41right now.
14:42Yeah.
14:43Okay.
14:44Well, first of all,
14:45I come off
14:46as an optimist
14:47when you are referring
14:49to the impact
14:51of the Middle East
14:52on Southeast Asia.
14:54Now, obviously,
14:55when the prices
14:56of oil were to go up,
14:58then Malaysia
14:59would gain
15:00because Petronas
15:02gains as and when
15:03the price of oil
15:05is more than
15:07$70 per barrel.
15:09That's one.
15:10Secondly,
15:13Southeast Asia
15:14no doubt
15:15will be affected
15:16by the possibility
15:18of imported
15:19inflation
15:20because we
15:22as a region
15:22has a lot of
15:24goods
15:24that are imported
15:25from abroad.
15:27And if there's
15:28anything
15:28that is happening
15:29in Middle East,
15:31Straits of Humus,
15:33Red Sea,
15:35then the supply
15:36chain will be
15:37affected.
15:37be that as it may,
15:42Southeast Asia
15:42would still gain
15:43principally because
15:46the region
15:47has crafted
15:48a vision,
15:50whether it's
15:51in the
15:51Kuala Lumpur
15:52statement
15:52in ASEAN
15:54GCC
15:55and China
15:57Economic Summit.
15:58we have
15:59all agreed
16:00that we
16:01want to
16:01have
16:02things such
16:02as ASEAN
16:04power grid
16:05that originates
16:07from Yunnan
16:08southwest of
16:09China
16:10all the way
16:11to Vietnam,
16:13Cambodia,
16:13Laos,
16:14Thailand,
16:16Malaysia,
16:17even with a
16:17submarine cable
16:18to Sarawak
16:19and potentially
16:21to not
16:23excluding
16:23Indonesia
16:24or Singapore
16:25too.
16:25So in
16:26that sense,
16:27we have
16:28an economic
16:28vision
16:29that is
16:31quite
16:32encouraging.
16:34So as
16:35and when
16:35we do not
16:36get involved
16:36in any
16:37open warfare,
16:39unlike what
16:40is happening
16:40now in the
16:41Middle East,
16:42we will be
16:43on the
16:43good set.
16:47Dr.
16:47Farr,
16:48it's great
16:48that you can
16:48be rather
16:49optimistic
16:49in the
16:50time of
16:50war,
16:51but if
16:51you had
16:51to be
16:52or if
16:53you had
16:53to put
16:53on the
16:53hat of
16:54a devil's
16:54advocate,
16:55what would
16:56you see
16:56potentially
16:58some of
16:58the negative
16:59effects of
17:00this conflict
17:01on Southeast
17:01Asia,
17:02if any?
17:04That's
17:04an excellent
17:05question.
17:07To the
17:07degree I'm
17:08allowed to
17:08do that,
17:09then I
17:09would say
17:10that
17:11monkey
17:13sees,
17:14monkey
17:14do.
17:15So
17:16assuming
17:17that
17:17Tehran
17:19is heavily
17:21bombed
17:22and the
17:23ceasefire
17:23breaks,
17:25then very
17:27obviously
17:27they will
17:28keep
17:28heading
17:29towards
17:30the
17:30nuclear
17:30direction,
17:32the
17:32nuclear
17:33weaponization.
17:35Now,
17:35as you
17:35may know,
17:36the region
17:37has a
17:38zone of
17:38peace,
17:38freedom,
17:39and
17:39neutrality.
17:41That's one.
17:42The region
17:42also subscribed
17:43to a
17:44nuclear
17:45taboo
17:45based on
17:47Southeast
17:48Asia
17:48nuclear
17:49weapons
17:50free
17:50zone,
17:51which is
17:52what we
17:53people in
17:54ASEAN
17:55sector
17:55normally
17:57refer to
17:58it.
17:59If the
18:00region in
18:01Middle East
18:02goes
18:03nuke
18:03by virtue
18:05of what
18:05Iran
18:05insists on
18:06doing,
18:07and more
18:08and more
18:08countries
18:09pull out
18:09and maneuver
18:11themselves away
18:12from the
18:12non-proliferation
18:13treaty,
18:14of which
18:15Iran is
18:16still a
18:16member,
18:16but Israel
18:17is not,
18:18then there
18:19is a
18:19strong
18:19likelihood
18:20that
18:20Southeast
18:21Asian
18:22countries,
18:23which is
18:23a distribution
18:24of different
18:25authoritarian
18:26and also
18:27democratic
18:28regimes,
18:29might still
18:30want to
18:31have nuclear
18:32weapons as
18:33a safe
18:34and strong
18:35backup
18:37option,
18:38security
18:38option.
18:42Dr.
18:43Rustom,
18:43what are
18:43your thoughts
18:44on either
18:45rather positive
18:47or negative
18:47fallout,
18:49some of the
18:49impacts of
18:50this conflict
18:51on Southeast
18:52Asia?
18:53Any specific
18:53countries perhaps
18:54that might
18:54benefit from
18:56this?
18:56As Dr.
18:57Farr mentioned,
18:58oil-producing
18:59countries might
19:00see this as a
19:02bit of an
19:02opportunity,
19:03but what are
19:03your thoughts?
19:05Yeah,
19:05I think Iran
19:06and its
19:07allies,
19:08like Houthi
19:09and Yemen,
19:09they're located
19:11in a very
19:11good position
19:13on geographical
19:17stance,
19:18like Iran
19:19can control
19:20Homo Strait
19:21and why
19:22Houthi can
19:23control
19:23Bab Al-Mandab
19:24on the
19:25route to
19:25Red Sea.
19:27So,
19:29this is the
19:29bargaining chip
19:30for Iran
19:31and for
19:31Houthi.
19:32and we
19:33fortunately
19:36that this
19:38war between
19:39Iran and
19:40Israel was
19:42de-escalated
19:43and then
19:44reached to
19:45the ceasefire.
19:47Otherwise,
19:48we may see
19:48Iran will
19:49block the
19:51route to
19:52the Strait of
19:53Homo Strait
19:54and will
19:54impact a lot
19:55on Southeast
19:57Asia.
19:58But if
20:01the fight
20:02in the
20:03Middle East,
20:04if the fight
20:04between Iran
20:05and Israel
20:06keeps going
20:07for a long
20:08time,
20:09I think
20:09Southeast
20:09Asia will
20:10fill a lot,
20:12you know,
20:12we suffer
20:13a lot.
20:15So,
20:16think about
20:17the products
20:18not getting
20:18here easily
20:19because of
20:20supply chains
20:21messed up
20:22or big
20:23chains
20:24in how
20:25things are
20:26bought
20:26and sold
20:27around the
20:27world.
20:28there could
20:30even be
20:31less money
20:32coming into
20:33our region
20:33as global
20:35investors
20:35get scared
20:36and pull
20:37back.
20:38This
20:38instability
20:39could really
20:40slow down
20:41our economic
20:42growth and
20:43make everything
20:44cost more
20:45for everyday
20:46people.
20:47Which is the
20:48last thing
20:49we need.
20:50It's not just
20:51about the
20:52direct conflict
20:52but about
20:53the long-term
20:54uncertainty.
20:55It creates
20:56that impact
20:57everyone.
21:00Now,
21:00we want to
21:00look at
21:01some of
21:01the
21:01response
21:02or perhaps
21:03lack thereof
21:04from ASEAN
21:05member states.
21:06I guess
21:07one response
21:07that we can
21:08see is
21:08from Malaysia
21:09when just
21:10today or
21:11yesterday,
21:11Prime Minister
21:12Anwar Ibrahim
21:12says that
21:13despite its
21:14consistent
21:15stance against
21:15violence as
21:16solution,
21:17Malaysia does
21:18acknowledge
21:19Iran's
21:20right to
21:20defend
21:21itself
21:21against
21:21attacks
21:22to its
21:23sovereignty.
21:24I believe
21:24Malaysia,
21:25at the time
21:25of this
21:26recording,
21:27has been
21:27the only
21:27country to
21:28put out
21:31a statement
21:31regarding or
21:33relating to
21:33this conflict.
21:34I don't
21:35think there's
21:35been any
21:36statement yet
21:37coming from
21:37other countries
21:38or at least
21:39a strong
21:39one.
21:40Of course,
21:40there hasn't
21:40been any
21:41statement at
21:42all from
21:42the ASEAN
21:44bloc itself.
21:45Dr. Farr,
21:45do you think
21:46that this
21:46is an
21:47area where
21:48ASEAN
21:48should step
21:49up and
21:50make a
21:50stance?
21:52When it
21:52comes to
21:53releasing a
21:54statement,
21:56the ASEAN
21:57regional
21:57organisation
21:58has in
21:59fact released
22:00multiple
22:01statements
22:01before.
22:03For instance,
22:04ASEAN is
22:05actually all
22:05for two-state
22:06solutions on
22:07Palestine.
22:08You cannot
22:09find it on
22:10the website,
22:11but as
22:12someone who
22:12worked in
22:13the organisation
22:14before,
22:15I've seen
22:15the statement
22:16many years
22:17ago.
22:18Now,
22:19on this
22:20specific
22:20conflict in
22:21Iran and
22:23Israel with
22:25the subsequent
22:26involvement of
22:27the United
22:28States and
22:29then withdrawal
22:30of the United
22:30States as
22:31an active
22:31participant right
22:33now,
22:34ASEAN
22:35actually has a
22:36caucus in
22:37the United
22:37Nations.
22:39So the
22:3910 member
22:40states of
22:41ASEAN
22:41has formed
22:42into a
22:43caucus,
22:45a talking
22:45club within
22:46the institutions
22:47of the
22:47United Nations.
22:49To the
22:49degree that
22:50you see
22:50United Nations
22:51opposing
22:52this war,
22:54then you
22:55can almost
22:56be certain
22:58that ASEAN
22:58is involved
22:59in the
23:00process of
23:00contributing
23:02to the
23:02drafting of
23:03that statement.
23:04So no
23:04direct statement
23:05for reasons
23:07that I
23:07can only
23:08hazard a
23:11guess,
23:12which is
23:12the tendency
23:13of trying
23:14not to
23:14offend
23:15all
23:16parties
23:17and
23:17the
23:18United
23:18States.
23:20The
23:20complexity
23:21of the
23:22conflict
23:23is one
23:25where
23:25we want
23:27to have a
23:28good
23:28relationship
23:29with
23:29Iran,
23:31we want
23:32to have a
23:33good relationship
23:33with the
23:34United States,
23:35there are
23:36seven countries
23:36around the
23:37regions that
23:38have normal
23:38relationship
23:39with Israel,
23:40we also
23:42want to have
23:42very, very
23:43good relationship
23:44with the
23:44Gulf
23:45Cooperation
23:45Council,
23:47yet we
23:47do know
23:48for a fact
23:49that the
23:49Gulf
23:49Cooperation
23:50Council,
23:51for instance,
23:54putatively
23:54side with
23:56Iran,
23:57but have
23:58statements
23:59that also
24:00enjoin Iran
24:01not to
24:03attack any
24:04one of
24:05their member
24:05states,
24:06especially
24:07the
24:08LUD
24:09US airbase
24:10in
24:10Qatar.
24:12So when
24:12you say
24:13less,
24:14you are
24:14actually
24:15strengthening
24:16your diplomatic
24:17position even
24:19more.
24:21Dr. Julia,
24:22do you agree
24:22with this,
24:23that the
24:24less you
24:24say,
24:25the stronger
24:25you are?
24:26And might
24:27I add as
24:28well,
24:28perhaps one
24:28of the
24:29reasons why
24:29this statement
24:30or this
24:31ASEAN
24:31stance
24:32on or
24:32support for
24:33a two-state
24:33solution
24:34hasn't made
24:34very,
24:36very public
24:36is perhaps
24:37there is
24:38some fragmentation,
24:39there is some
24:40division to
24:41that statement,
24:42to that kind
24:42of stance.
24:43But going
24:44back to my
24:44question,
24:45Dr. Julia,
24:45do you agree
24:46with that?
24:47I'm not sure
24:48silence is golden
24:49in this
24:50particular case,
24:51but it's
24:51rather comes
24:53out of the
24:54regulations and
24:55practices
24:55and principles
24:57on which
24:58ASEAN
24:59is built.
25:01It's true,
25:01you're right,
25:02there was no,
25:03or at least
25:04correct me
25:05if I'm wrong,
25:06there was no
25:07joint statement
25:07by ASEAN,
25:09particularly on
25:10the matter of
25:10Israel violating
25:11Iran's
25:12sovereignty,
25:13and the
25:14response overall
25:15has been
25:16muted.
25:18Yes,
25:18there was
25:19condemnation of
25:20violence and
25:21aggression,
25:22death of
25:23civilians,
25:23or concern
25:24expressed by
25:25individual
25:25states,
25:26but ASEAN
25:28states,
25:29ASEAN as a
25:30whole grouping
25:31did not
25:32condemn Israel.
25:34And in
25:35this case,
25:36I think if
25:36Malaysia starts
25:37talking on
25:38behalf of
25:39the whole
25:39bloc,
25:40other ASEAN
25:40members won't
25:41be happy.
25:42As my
25:43colleague just
25:44pointed out,
25:45quite a few
25:47members of
25:47ASEAN have
25:48good ties
25:49with Israel,
25:50probably too
25:51good,
25:51at least
25:51actually seven
25:53members of
25:53ASEAN,
25:54we can
25:54count,
25:54they have
25:55ties with
25:55Israel,
25:56some very
25:57tight,
25:57like Thailand
25:57for example,
25:59including
25:59military-technical
26:00cooperation,
26:01or Singapore,
26:02or the
26:03Philippines,
26:04and others
26:06as well.
26:07So,
26:08I don't
26:09think it's
26:09the situation
26:10where they
26:11can stand
26:11as a
26:12bloc.
26:13And also,
26:13you know,
26:14look,
26:14the Middle
26:16Eastern
26:16states,
26:17the Persian
26:17Gulf
26:18states,
26:19Iran's
26:21neighbors,
26:22some of
26:23them apparently
26:24even allowed
26:25the use
26:25of their
26:25airspace
26:26for this
26:27operation
26:28by Israel.
26:29So,
26:30it's not
26:31much for
26:31us to
26:32do in
26:33ASEAN
26:34against that.
26:35I think
26:38the ASEAN
26:39states,
26:39they can
26:40push for
26:40peace,
26:41offer
26:42moral
26:42support,
26:43diplomatic
26:44support,
26:45but more
26:46than that,
26:46especially
26:47when many
26:48of us
26:48in ASEAN
26:49here are
26:49conducting
26:50their
26:50individual
26:51bilateral
26:51talks with
26:52the U.S.
26:53over tariffs,
26:54it's not
26:54the moment
26:55to speak
26:55strongly on
26:56this matter,
26:57and that's
26:57why they
26:57are not.
26:58So,
26:58it's rather
26:59comes out
27:00of inability
27:01to do so,
27:02or out of,
27:03let's put it,
27:04better constraint
27:05to do so,
27:06than laying
27:08grounds for
27:08future diplomacy,
27:09I think.
27:28If we were
27:30to take
27:31into account
27:31concepts
27:32or principles
27:33like ASEAN
27:34centrality,
27:35and if we
27:35want to look
27:36as well,
27:36very specifically
27:37at the ASEAN
27:38political security
27:39community,
27:40or the APSC
27:41strategic plan
27:42or blueprint
27:43for 2025,
27:44it was just
27:44adopted recently
27:45in the last
27:46summit,
27:47in the recent
27:47one.
27:49Some of
27:49the goals
27:50or the
27:51points stated,
27:53it acts
27:54as a roadmap
27:55for ASEAN
27:55to drive
27:56its regional
27:56architecture,
27:57to project
27:58its position
27:58on regional
27:59and global
27:59issues,
28:01and that
28:01the community
28:02should project
28:03the ASEAN
28:03position on
28:04regional issues.
28:06Another
28:06strategic goal,
28:08five,
28:08states that
28:09the bloc
28:09is a
28:09contributor
28:10to the
28:10maintenance
28:10of
28:11international
28:11peace
28:12and security,
28:12and many
28:13more,
28:13I can quote.
28:14Dr. Rustom,
28:15do you think
28:15this is an
28:16area where
28:16ASEAN
28:17should assert
28:17itself,
28:18given that
28:19they strongly
28:20uphold
28:20some of
28:21these principles,
28:22the principle
28:22of ASEAN
28:23centrality
28:23and neutrality
28:24and whatnot,
28:25is this
28:25where they
28:26should make
28:27their stance
28:27clear?
28:30I think
28:31we should
28:31have this
28:32kind of
28:33intention,
28:34but in
28:35my opinion,
28:36there are
28:37two kind
28:38of limitations
28:39that are.
28:41The first
28:41thing is that
28:42ASEAN is
28:44known for
28:45its consensus
28:46model where
28:47everyone
28:48has to
28:49agree.
28:49so this
28:51is
28:51kind of
28:52one
28:52obstacle.
28:58Another
28:59thing is
28:59that
28:59the
29:01conflict
29:02beyond
29:03this
29:04ASEAN
29:05region,
29:06you know,
29:06the conflict
29:07beyond this
29:08region is
29:09very difficult
29:10that ASEAN
29:11can involve.
29:12like the
29:14conflict
29:14in the
29:15Middle East
29:15and the
29:16war in
29:16Russia,
29:17Ukraine,
29:18are far
29:18beyond
29:19ASEAN
29:19capacity
29:21to
29:21effectively
29:22mediate
29:23and
29:24bring
29:25to
29:25the end.
29:27But that
29:29is good
29:29intention.
29:30That is
29:31good
29:31intention
29:31that we
29:33may have
29:34these
29:34blueprints
29:35of
29:36APSE.
29:39It's
29:39quite a
29:40lot.
29:40It's
29:41quite a
29:41lot of
29:42some
29:42limitations
29:43that we
29:44may not
29:45fulfill
29:46our own
29:47on
29:48this
29:49thing.
29:49Yes.
29:51Dr.
29:51Foer,
29:52of course,
29:52we want
29:54your valuable
29:55insight on
29:56the ASEAN
29:57political
29:57security
29:57community.
29:58You had
29:59some
29:59direct
30:00experience
30:01with
30:01this.
30:02Given
30:02that
30:03this
30:04security
30:05political
30:06community
30:07has so
30:08much
30:08emphasis
30:09on
30:09principles
30:11of
30:11centrality,
30:13on
30:13asserting
30:14rules-based
30:15international
30:15order,
30:16do you
30:16think
30:16that
30:17ASEAN
30:17has
30:17done
30:18enough,
30:18has
30:18utilized
30:20enough
30:20of
30:20this
30:21diplomacy
30:21and
30:22dialogue
30:22in
30:23pushing
30:23for
30:23de-escalation
30:24in
30:24conflicts
30:25in the
30:26past
30:26perhaps,
30:26in wars
30:27like
30:27Ukraine
30:28and
30:28Russia,
30:29in
30:30the
30:30conflict
30:30in
30:31Gaza,
30:31and
30:31now
30:32with
30:32this
30:32newly
30:33developing
30:33conflict,
30:34do you
30:34think
30:34that
30:34this
30:35is
30:35where
30:36they
30:36can
30:36flex
30:37some
30:37of
30:37their
30:37principles
30:38dialogue
30:40and
30:40diplomacy?
30:42And
30:42the
30:42reason
30:42of
30:43intellectualizing
30:44the
30:44issue,
30:45I
30:47add
30:47that
30:47caveat
30:48because
30:48ASEAN
30:49is a
30:49nebulous
30:50subject,
30:51it's not
30:51easy to
30:52understand,
30:53but having
30:54said so,
30:55allow me to
30:56just chime
30:56in and
30:57offer whatever
30:58I can to
30:59clarify the
31:00situation or
31:01the questions
31:02that you just
31:02posed.
31:02Now,
31:04ASEAN
31:04can in
31:05fact do
31:06more because
31:07it has
31:07become a
31:08very good
31:08example of
31:09how formal
31:11and informal
31:12diplomacy,
31:13when merged
31:14or combined,
31:16can actually
31:17produce a
31:17region that
31:18is a safe
31:18corner in
31:20a very
31:21turbulent
31:21world.
31:23What I
31:23meant by
31:24that is
31:24that from
31:241969
31:25onwards,
31:27ASEAN
31:27has actually
31:28become the
31:29found,
31:30the sub
31:30region that
31:32has
31:32never had
31:33any
31:34severe
31:35interstate
31:36conflict
31:37until this
31:39very moment.
31:40Even with
31:40the inclusion
31:41of the
31:41recent
31:42border
31:43skirmish
31:43between
31:44Cambodia
31:45and Thailand,
31:46it's actually
31:47over a
31:47very,
31:48very small
31:48area.
31:49Otherwise,
31:50from
31:501979
31:50onwards,
31:51ASEAN,
31:52by extension,
31:53the whole
31:53of East
31:54Asia,
31:55have not
31:55had a
31:56very
31:56significant
31:57or
31:58continuous
31:59interstate
32:00conflict
32:01conflict that
32:02is armed
32:02and dangerous.
32:05Now,
32:05to the
32:06degree that
32:06we know
32:07how to
32:07promote and
32:08position
32:09ourselves as
32:10a regional
32:11organization
32:12that is
32:13good at
32:14diplomacy,
32:16once again,
32:17formal or
32:17diplomal,
32:19then we
32:20are actually
32:21right up
32:22in the
32:23league when
32:24it comes to
32:25confidence of
32:26building,
32:27preventive
32:28diplomacy.
32:30We haven't
32:30really achieved
32:31peacekeeping
32:32yet,
32:33even though
32:33that is
32:34stated in
32:34ASEAN
32:34regional
32:35forum.
32:36The
32:36meeting
32:36will be
32:37had
32:37on
32:39July 10
32:40and
32:4011
32:40next
32:41month,
32:42comprising
32:42of all
32:43the
32:43foreign
32:43and
32:44occasionally
32:44security
32:45and
32:45defense
32:46minister
32:46of
32:4727
32:47member
32:47states.
32:49Finally,
32:49we should
32:50also,
32:51according to
32:52the statement
32:52of 1994
32:54of ASEAN
32:55regional
32:55forum,
32:56we should
32:56have what
32:57is known
32:57as joint
32:58maritime
32:58cooperations.
33:00So,
33:02you do
33:03have
33:03countries
33:03such as
33:04New Zealand
33:05and Australia
33:06as and
33:07when they
33:07are in
33:08what is
33:09known as
33:10ASEAN
33:11regional
33:11forum
33:12who begin
33:13to question
33:14the
33:15realistic
33:18nature of
33:19ASEAN
33:19in contributing
33:21to the
33:21world peace
33:21because most
33:22countries are
33:23still stuck
33:23in the
33:24process of
33:25confidence
33:25building
33:26dialogue.
33:27And in
33:27the case
33:28of
33:28Malaysia,
33:28we refer
33:29to it
33:29as
33:29trust
33:30building
33:30mechanism
33:31because
33:33an actual
33:34and proper
33:35confidence
33:35building
33:36mechanism
33:36would come
33:37in two
33:37pillars.
33:38One is
33:38information
33:39regime
33:40where you
33:41divulge
33:41and review
33:42your military
33:42doctrine
33:43openly
33:44to your
33:45neighbors
33:45and member
33:46states.
33:47Two,
33:47you must
33:48have a
33:48verification
33:49regime.
33:50As
33:50Ronald Reagan
33:51once said,
33:52trust but
33:52verify.
33:53we don't
33:55have the
33:55second
33:56pillar yet
33:56we are
33:57doing quite
33:57well in
33:58terms of
33:58safeguarding
33:59our
33:59defense,
34:01sovereignty
34:02and whatnot
34:02with one
34:04or two
34:04exceptions
34:05as and
34:06when it
34:06applies to
34:07the conflict
34:09in Cambodia
34:11and Thailand
34:11which has not
34:12been properly
34:13resolved over
34:14the UNESCO
34:15heritage site.
34:16we don't
34:18have a
34:18perfect
34:18record
34:21on Myanmar
34:22again
34:23situations
34:25is very
34:25fluid
34:26because as
34:27of the
34:28ASEAN
34:29summit in
34:30Kuala Lumpur
34:30last month
34:31or the
34:31month prior
34:33my sources
34:35have explained
34:35to me that
34:36we have
34:37actually
34:38convinced
34:39senior
34:39general
34:39to meet
34:41with the
34:41group
34:42chair
34:42which is
34:43Prime
34:44Minister
34:44Abu
34:44Ibrahim
34:45is also
34:47willing to
34:48contemplate
34:49and explore
34:49a stronger
34:51and longer
34:53ceasefire
34:54on the
34:54ground
34:54in order
34:55to permit
34:56the humanitarian
34:57aid and
34:58groups
34:58whether it's
35:00Maha in
35:01Malaysia
35:01or perhaps
35:03Shuji
35:04Foundation
35:06that has
35:06strong branches
35:07all over
35:08the region
35:09they are
35:10then able
35:11to go in
35:12and serve
35:12the Myanmar
35:13people and
35:14residents
35:15affected by
35:16either the
35:16earthquake
35:17or the
35:17civil war
35:18Now of
35:20course
35:21this moves
35:22us a little
35:23bit away
35:23from the
35:23topic
35:24but what
35:24you shared
35:24with us
35:25is rather
35:26quite
35:26interesting
35:26when you
35:28say that
35:29General
35:29Minang
35:30Helang is
35:30interested
35:31in meeting
35:31with the
35:32leadership
35:32here to
35:33discuss a
35:33little bit
35:34more about
35:34making more
35:35efforts towards
35:36allowing
35:36humanitarian
35:37aid
35:37do you
35:39see
35:40this
35:41as
35:41being
35:42purely
35:43symbolic
35:43or do
35:43you
35:44genuinely
35:45believe
35:45that
35:46there's
35:46real
35:47change
35:47and
35:47progress
35:48that
35:48could
35:48be
35:48made
35:49here
35:49I like
35:52to defer
35:53to what
35:54Dr. Julia
35:55said earlier
35:56that silence
35:57may not be
35:57golden
35:57at all
36:01but what
36:02ASEAN
36:03does
36:03is a
36:03very
36:04unique
36:04and
36:04intricate
36:05form
36:05of
36:06diplomacy
36:06where
36:07they
36:07may
36:07be
36:08occasionally
36:08very
36:09quiet
36:09on the
36:10forefront
36:10in
36:12international
36:12relations
36:13but they
36:13are
36:14actively
36:15doing
36:15all
36:15kinds
36:16of
36:16things
36:16behind
36:16the
36:17scene
36:17to
36:18try
36:18to
36:18improve
36:18the
36:19likelihood
36:19of
36:20peace
36:20so
36:21when it
36:21comes
36:21to
36:21Myanmar
36:22where
36:24you
36:24have
36:24a
36:24very
36:25obstinate
36:25and
36:26stubborn
36:26leader
36:27willing
36:28to
36:28engage
36:28with
36:29various
36:30stakeholders
36:31including
36:32allowing
36:32Prime Minister
36:33Anwar
36:33Brahim
36:34to have
36:34a dialogue
36:35with
36:35the
36:35national
36:36unity
36:37government
36:37of
36:38Myanmar
36:38whose
36:39principal
36:41leader
36:41is
36:42Aung San
36:42Suu Kyi
36:43then
36:44you can
36:44interpret
36:45that as
36:46some
36:46kind
36:46of
36:47permissiveness
36:49diplomatic
36:50permissiveness
36:51to
36:52enable
36:52and
36:53to
36:54strengthen
36:55the
36:55hand
36:55of
36:55the
36:56group
36:56chair
36:57to
36:58enhance
36:59the
37:00importance
37:00of
37:01the
37:01five
37:01point
37:02consensus
37:02of
37:03which
37:03the
37:03first
37:03point
37:04is
37:04all
37:05about
37:05ceasefire
37:06and
37:06nothing
37:06more
37:07so
37:08when
37:08you
37:08have
37:08that
37:08that
37:09is
37:09process
37:10leading
37:11to
37:11potential
37:12progress
37:12rather
37:13than
37:14the
37:14whole
37:14of
37:15Myanmar
37:15crumbling
37:16into
37:17potential
37:17eight
37:18different
37:18pieces
37:19I'm
37:20referring
37:20to
37:21ethnic
37:21nationalist
37:22organizations
37:23that
37:23can
37:23form
37:24their
37:24own
37:24states
37:24and
37:25then
37:25foster
37:26all
37:27kinds
37:27of
37:27cyber
37:28crimes
37:28and
37:28syndicate
37:29and
37:30according
37:30to
37:30UN
37:30estimate
37:31those
37:32activities
37:33have
37:34rigged
37:34in
37:34more
37:34than
37:3567.7
37:36billion
37:36US
37:36dollars
37:37a
37:37year
37:37that's
37:39a
37:39very
37:39significant
37:39and
37:40substantial
37:40figure
37:41because
37:41the
37:42GDP
37:42of
37:42Singapore
37:43is
37:43only
37:44half
37:44a
37:44trillion
37:44Malaysia
37:45is
37:46$380
37:46billion
37:47so
37:48they're
37:48catching
37:48up those
37:49cyber
37:49crimes
37:50and
37:50syndicates
37:50yeah
37:51very
37:52interesting
37:53points
37:53there
37:53but we
37:54do have
37:54to save
37:54that
37:54for
37:55another
37:55day
37:55because
37:55we
37:56do
37:56want
37:56to
37:56go
37:57back
37:57to
37:57what
37:57we
37:57were
37:57discussing
37:58on
37:59the
37:59conflict
38:00between
38:00Iran
38:00and
38:01Israel
38:01I
38:02I
38:02do
38:02I
38:03do
38:04I
38:04do
38:04want
38:04to
38:05go
38:05back
38:06to
38:07what
38:07the
38:08Israeli
38:08government
38:09is
38:09still
38:09very
38:10much
38:10embedded
38:10very
38:11deep
38:11in
38:12the
38:12region
38:12in
38:13Southeast
38:13Asia
38:13itself
38:14amongst
38:14some
38:15other
38:15governments
38:15but
38:16if we
38:17were to
38:17draw
38:17some
38:18comparison
38:18between
38:19what's
38:19happening
38:19here
38:20and
38:20what's
38:20happening
38:21in
38:21the
38:21West
38:22we're
38:23seeing
38:23in
38:23the
38:23US
38:24and
38:24in
38:24some
38:25European
38:25countries
38:26there
38:27is
38:27this
38:28sort
38:28of
38:28growing
38:28disconnect
38:29between
38:30what
38:31the
38:31leadership
38:32thinks
38:32or
38:33shows
38:34in
38:35their
38:35relations
38:35with
38:36the
38:36Israeli
38:36government
38:37and
38:37what
38:38the
38:38mainstream
38:38thought
38:39the
38:39mainstream
38:39thinking
38:40what
38:40the
38:40people
38:41are
38:41saying
38:41about
38:41how
38:42perhaps
38:43countries
38:44should
38:44societies
38:45should
38:45reconsider
38:46their
38:47relationships
38:47with
38:48Israel
38:48at
38:48large
38:49and
38:50if
38:50we
38:50were
38:50to
38:50compare
38:51that
38:51with
38:51Southeast
38:52Asia
38:52I
38:53guess
38:53that's
38:53not
38:54gaining
38:54as
38:54much
38:55traction
38:55not
38:55gaining
38:55as
38:56much
38:56momentum
38:56in
38:57other
38:57Southeast
38:58Asian
38:58countries
38:58apart
38:59from
38:59Malaysia
38:59and
39:00Indonesia
39:00of course
39:00with
39:02a lot
39:02of
39:02the
39:02governments
39:03still
39:03forging
39:04very
39:04close
39:04relations
39:05with
39:05Israel
39:05how
39:07do
39:07you
39:07see
39:08this
39:08sort
39:08of
39:09playing
39:09out
39:10if
39:10this
39:10conflict
39:11were
39:11to
39:11go
39:12on
39:12will
39:13this
39:13sort
39:14of
39:14frustration
39:16this
39:18discontent
39:19grow
39:19in
39:20Southeast
39:20Asian
39:21societies
39:21as
39:22much
39:22as
39:22we're
39:23seeing
39:23it
39:23developing
39:23and
39:24escalating
39:25very
39:25rapidly
39:25in the
39:26West
39:26so far
39:28we haven't
39:29been seeing
39:29this rise
39:30of
39:30discontent
39:30in the
39:32Southeast
39:32Asian
39:33societies
39:34despite
39:34the
39:35governments
39:36the
39:37G2G
39:38relations
39:39between the
39:40Southeast Asian
39:40countries
39:40and
39:41Israel
39:42and
39:44I think
39:44that comes
39:45from the
39:46differences
39:46the
39:47foundational
39:49differences
39:50that we
39:50have
39:51with the
39:51Western
39:51societies
39:52of the
39:52day
39:53it's
39:55quite a
39:55different
39:56cultural
39:56background
39:57and
39:58maybe
40:00to some
40:01point
40:01a luxury
40:02to talk
40:02about
40:03these
40:03issues
40:04that
40:04are
40:05outside
40:05of the
40:06countries
40:06but do
40:07not have
40:07a direct
40:08impact
40:09except for
40:09maybe military
40:10spending
40:10on the
40:11countries
40:11within
40:12Europe
40:12or the
40:13United
40:13States
40:14so there
40:16is this
40:16demand for
40:17justice
40:17of sorts
40:18in the
40:19Western
40:19societies
40:20that we
40:20are
40:20observing
40:20something
40:21that
40:22maybe
40:22we
40:22can
40:23see
40:23that
40:23in
40:23the
40:24pockets
40:24among
40:24activists
40:25among
40:25active
40:26people
40:27actively
40:27watching
40:28and
40:29thinking
40:29about
40:29what's
40:30happening
40:30in the
40:31Middle
40:31East
40:31it
40:33also
40:33of course
40:35goes in
40:36line with
40:36this general
40:37sentiment
40:37in the
40:39so-called
40:39global
40:39South
40:40where
40:41the public
40:42in general
40:43might be
40:44having this
40:45background
40:45discontent
40:46with how
40:47things are
40:48managed
40:49globally
40:49with how
40:51some
40:52hegemons
40:53interfere
40:54into the
40:54external
40:55for them
40:56regions
40:57into their
40:58affairs
40:58and dare
41:00to dictate
41:00what they
41:01should do
41:02but
41:03on the
41:05people's
41:06level
41:06of the
41:07general
41:07public
41:08of the
41:08masses
41:09I don't
41:09think that
41:10request to
41:11their
41:11governments
41:12is so
41:12strong
41:13especially
41:13if we
41:13talk about
41:14non-Muslim
41:15majority
41:15nations
41:17within
41:17ASEAN
41:18so we
41:18don't talk
41:18about
41:19Malaysia
41:19and
41:19Indonesia
41:20where
41:20this
41:20sentiment
41:21is
41:21traditionally
41:21stronger
41:22and also
41:23used in
41:24the
41:24political
41:25rhetoric
41:25by the
41:26sitting
41:26governments
41:27because
41:28we have
41:29a lot
41:30of
41:30issues
41:30to
41:31tend
41:31to
41:31and
41:32some
41:32of
41:33them
41:33were
41:33highlighted
41:33in
41:34this
41:34ASEAN
41:352045
41:36vision
41:37including
41:38the
41:38political
41:38security
41:39community
41:39but also
41:40economic
41:40community
41:41and
41:41sociocultural
41:41community
41:42and
41:43we
41:43have
41:44to
41:44deal
41:44with
41:44the
41:45plethora
41:45of
41:45those
41:45issues
41:46like
41:46aging
41:46food
41:50security
41:50energy
41:51security
41:52of course
41:52security
41:52in
41:53the
41:53South
41:53China
41:53Sea
41:54and
41:55these
41:55challenges
41:56already
41:56consume
41:57vast
41:57resources
41:58and
41:59attention
41:59so
42:00the
42:01public
42:01attention
42:02so
42:02ASEAN
42:03tends
42:03to be
42:03more
42:04inward
42:04centric
42:05in this
42:05sense
42:06if we
42:06look at
42:06it
42:07at the
42:07public
42:08level
42:08and
42:09even
42:09if
42:10the
42:10conflict
42:10continues
42:11I
42:12think
42:12what
42:13is
42:14to
42:14encourage
42:16people
42:17to rise
42:17up
42:17with
42:18some
42:18sort
42:18of
42:18demand
42:19to
42:19their
42:19governments
42:20is
42:20a
42:20blockade
42:21of
42:21the
42:21Uhrmuz
42:22Strait
42:22so
42:22people
42:23it
42:23will
42:24strike
42:24it
42:24will
42:24hit
42:25their
42:25pocket
42:25people
42:26will
42:26feel
42:26the
42:27economic
42:27impact
42:28but
42:29otherwise
42:29it
42:31will
42:31remain
42:31probably
42:32on the
42:32level
42:32of
42:32the
42:33general
42:34solidarity
42:35with
42:35the
42:35global
42:35South
42:36where
42:37Iran
42:37stands
42:38for
42:38its
42:38sovereignty
42:38and
42:39I
42:39think
42:40the
42:40idea
42:40that
42:40some
42:41other
42:42countries
42:42at least
42:43in the
42:43region
42:43could
42:43be
42:43next
42:44after
42:45this
42:46either
42:46of
42:47victims
42:47of
42:48this
42:48escalation
42:48or
42:49maybe
42:50even
42:50victims
42:50of
42:51expansionist
42:52demands
42:52on the
42:54part of
42:54other
42:54regional
42:55and
42:55extra
42:55regional
42:55actors
42:56so
42:57apart
42:59from
42:59this
42:59general
42:59sentiment
43:00and
43:00a little
43:01bit
43:01of
43:01activism
43:02amongst
43:03the
43:03people
43:03who
43:03really
43:04watch
43:04what's
43:05going
43:05on
43:05in
43:05the
43:05Middle
43:05East
43:06currently
43:06it's
43:07going
43:07to be
43:07to
43:09remain
43:10the
43:10same
43:10how
43:11we
43:11are
43:11seeing
43:11it
43:11now
43:12Dr.
43:14Rustom
43:14your
43:14thoughts
43:15on
43:15this
43:15just
43:16to
43:16quickly
43:16touch
43:17on
43:17the
43:18issue
43:18of
43:18public
43:19sentiment
43:20I mean
43:20we're
43:20drawing
43:20comparisons
43:21between
43:22of course
43:23different
43:23public
43:24sentiment
43:24in
43:25Muslim
43:26majority
43:27nations
43:27like
43:28Malaysia
43:28and
43:28Indonesia
43:29of course
43:29have
43:29long
43:31had this
43:31sort of
43:32discontent
43:32and frustration
43:33with
43:33the
43:35global
43:35order
43:35at large
43:35but also
43:36specifically
43:36at how
43:37Israel
43:39has
43:39been
43:39responding
43:40to
43:41these
43:41crises
43:42and
43:42committing
43:44genocide
43:44basically
43:45if this
43:47conflict
43:47were to
43:48play out
43:48for much
43:49longer
43:49do you
43:49think
43:50that it
43:50might have
43:51any
43:51effect
43:51on
43:52public
43:53sentiment
43:53among
43:54Thai
43:54people
43:55with how
43:57the Israeli
43:58government
43:58is responding
43:59and reacting
44:00to these
44:01incidents
44:02yes
44:04I think
44:05in
44:05ASEAN
44:06it
44:06might
44:07be
44:07the
44:08mix
44:08back
44:09of
44:09responses
44:10even
44:11in
44:12Thailand
44:12society
44:13between
44:14Muslim
44:15or
44:16between
44:16the
44:17other
44:18Thais
44:19in
44:19this
44:20society
44:21so
44:22it
44:22might
44:23be
44:23indifferent
44:24to
44:25Muslim
44:26dominated
44:27country
44:27like
44:27in
44:28Malaysia
44:28or
44:28Indonesia
44:29like
44:31for
44:31Malaysia
44:32Indonesia
44:32we
44:34can
44:36observe
44:36that
44:36a
44:37much
44:37stronger
44:37reaction
44:38including
44:40on
44:41Israeli
44:43policy
44:43or
44:44war
44:44on
44:44Palestine
44:44or
44:45even
44:45for
44:46Iran
44:46and
44:47the
44:48population
44:49often
44:49feel
44:50a deep
44:50connection
44:51to
44:51issues
44:52in
44:52the
44:52East
44:53especially
44:54those
44:54involving
44:55Muslim
44:55community
44:56and
44:56their
44:57struggles
44:57so
44:58this
44:59strong
44:59public
44:59sentiment
45:00could
45:00translate
45:01into
45:01more
45:02vocal
45:02official
45:03statements
45:03from
45:04their
45:04government
45:05and
45:06perhaps
45:06strong
45:07condemnation
45:08called
45:08for
45:09international
45:09intervention
45:10or
45:10appeal
45:11for
45:12humanitarian
45:13aid
45:13it
45:15might
45:15also
45:15lead
45:15to
45:16push
45:16within
45:16ASEAN
45:17for
45:18a
45:19more
45:19robust
45:19and
45:20assertive
45:20collective
45:21stance
45:21from
45:22the
45:22bloc
45:23on
45:23the
45:23conflict
45:23and
45:24their
45:24domestic
45:25sentiment
45:25often
45:26significantly
45:27influence
45:28foreign
45:29policy
45:30on
45:30such
45:31matter
45:31but
45:32there's
45:34some
45:34development
45:34like
45:35in
45:35Thailand
45:36I
45:36can
45:37say
45:37that
45:37since
45:38the
45:39October
45:42war
45:42between
45:43Israel
45:44and
45:45Palestine
45:46so
45:48the
45:48public
45:48sentiment
45:49among
45:49Thai
45:50I think
45:50I observed
45:51that
45:51there's
45:52something
45:52change
45:53people
45:54have
45:54more
45:55understanding
45:55about
45:56the
45:56dispute
45:56cause
45:57of
45:57conflict
45:57and
45:58also
45:58you
45:59know
45:59by
45:59the
45:59impact
46:00of
46:00the
46:01war
46:01in
46:02the
46:02Middle East
46:03between
46:03Israel
46:04Palestine
46:04even
46:07Russia
46:08or Ukraine
46:09so
46:09many
46:09tourists
46:10Israeli
46:11tourists
46:12they
46:13came
46:13to
46:15Thailand
46:15and
46:16by
46:17you
46:18know
46:18their
46:19number
46:19is
46:21you
46:22know
46:22is
46:22more
46:23and
46:23more
46:23every
46:23day
46:24so
46:24there's
46:25some
46:25tension
46:26between
46:26those
46:27Israeli
46:28tourist
46:29communities
46:29with
46:30you
46:31know
46:31Thai
46:31so
46:32now
46:32people
46:33they
46:34are
46:34even
46:35Thai
46:35people
46:37now
46:37they
46:37are
46:38more
46:38you
46:38know
46:39more
46:39feel
46:40cautious
46:41about
46:41the
46:42relation
46:42with
46:43Israel
46:44and
46:44they
46:45fear
46:45that
46:45this
46:46kind
46:46of
46:46conflict
46:47in
46:47the
46:48Middle
46:48East
46:48will
46:50at
46:50least
46:50push
46:51those
46:51Israeli
46:54tourists
46:55come
46:55more
46:56in
46:57the
46:57bigger
46:57number
46:57to
46:58Thailand
46:59and
47:00it
47:00may
47:00create
47:00some
47:01security
47:01problem
47:02to
47:02Thailand
47:03yes
47:03now
47:04just
47:05looking at
47:05everything
47:06that's
47:06happening
47:06with the
47:07conflict
47:08in the
47:08Middle
47:08East
47:09great
47:09power
47:10rivalry
47:10intensifying
47:11and
47:12also
47:12not to
47:13forget
47:13some
47:14issues
47:14in our
47:15own
47:15backyard
47:15maritime
47:16tensions
47:16dr
47:18far
47:18do
47:18you
47:18think
47:18ASEAN
47:19is
47:19generally
47:19ready
47:20to
47:20uphold
47:21a lot
47:21of
47:21these
47:21principles
47:22that
47:22are
47:22stated
47:23in
47:24their
47:24many
47:24declarations
47:25in
47:25their
47:26strategic
47:26plan
47:27be it
47:27the
47:27political
47:28security
47:28community
47:29or
47:29many
47:29other
47:30papers
47:31and
47:31documents
47:32do
47:32you
47:33think
47:33that
47:33the
47:34bloc
47:34is
47:35ready
47:35to
47:35uphold
47:36some
47:36of
47:36these
47:36principles
47:37or
47:37do
47:37you
47:37think
47:37that
47:38there's
47:38this
47:38risk
47:39of
47:39them
47:39just
47:39being
47:39a
47:40bystander
47:40and
47:41this
47:41being
47:41purely
47:42rhetoric
47:46the
47:46implementation
47:46will
47:47always
47:47have
47:47a
47:47gap
47:48because
47:49most
47:49of
47:49the
47:50languages
47:50are
47:50lofty
47:51and
47:51aspirational
47:52and
47:52that
47:53has
47:53always
47:53been
47:53the
47:53case
47:54with
47:54all
47:54regional
47:54organizations
47:55whereas
47:56it
47:56is
47:57ASEAN
47:57European
47:57Union
47:58or
47:59even
47:59all
48:00the
48:00way
48:00to
48:01universal
48:02organizations
48:03such as
48:03the
48:04United
48:04Nations
48:04so
48:05that
48:05is
48:05a
48:05reality
48:06that
48:06cannot
48:06be
48:07changed
48:08or
48:08altered
48:09that
48:09having
48:10been
48:10said
48:10as
48:11I
48:11mentioned
48:12earlier
48:12ASEAN
48:14has
48:14a
48:14rather
48:14decent
48:16historical
48:17record
48:17of
48:17avoiding
48:18war
48:18and
48:19to
48:19the
48:19degree
48:19that
48:19you
48:20can
48:20avoid
48:20interstate
48:21war
48:22then
48:23the
48:23foundation
48:24that
48:25Dr.
48:27Julia
48:27mentioned
48:28about
48:29earlier
48:29provides
48:31a very
48:31strong
48:32base
48:33for all
48:34kinds
48:34of
48:34economic
48:35development
48:35or
48:36perhaps
48:36future
48:38visualization
48:39of what
48:40the region
48:40wants to
48:40be
48:41because
48:41the
48:42global
48:42economy
48:43with
48:43or without
48:44ASEAN
48:44is
48:45definitely
48:46huddling
48:46towards
48:47the
48:47future
48:47where
48:48it
48:48is
48:48driven
48:48by
48:49artificial
48:50intelligence
48:51automation
48:52the
48:53proliferation
48:54of
48:55algorithm
48:55apps
48:57driven
48:57economy
48:58augmented
48:59reality
49:00and
49:01analysis
49:02of
49:02big
49:02data
49:03all
49:03of
49:03which
49:04manifest
49:04in
49:05the
49:05form
49:05of
49:05the
49:06necessity
49:06of
49:07data
49:07processing
49:09centers
49:09both
49:10for
49:10ourselves
49:10and
49:11for
49:11the
49:11world
49:11if
49:12we
49:12do
49:13want
49:13to
49:13become
49:13the
49:14hub
49:14and
49:15as
49:15a
49:15result
49:15of
49:15which
49:16there
49:17will
49:17always
49:17be
49:18a
49:18high
49:18degree
49:19of
49:19realism
49:20involved
49:21in
49:21our
49:21economic
49:21policy
49:22making
49:22so
49:23when
49:25we
49:25are
49:25positioning
49:27ourselves
49:28as
49:28that
49:28hub
49:29of
49:29data
49:29processing
49:30centers
49:30for
49:31instance
49:31you
49:32have
49:32the
49:32lights
49:32of
49:32Singapore
49:33working
49:33very
49:34closely
49:34with
49:34Malaysia
49:35to
49:35develop
49:36the
49:36Johor
49:37economic
49:38corridor
49:38which
49:39is
49:40gaining
49:40traction
49:40again
49:41now
49:42coming
49:42back
49:43to
49:43the
49:43issue
49:43of
49:43whether
49:44we
49:44can
49:45actually
49:45close
49:45the
49:46chasm
49:46between
49:47rhetoric
49:47and
49:48reality
49:48we
49:50can
49:51and
49:51we
49:52must
49:52which
49:53is
49:53why
49:53there
49:54are
49:54scholars
49:55who
49:55have
49:55now
49:56pivoted
49:57to
49:57saying
49:58including
49:59myself
49:59what
50:00we
50:00have
50:00as
50:00ASEAN
50:01way
50:01must
50:02now
50:02be
50:02translated
50:03into
50:03ASEAN
50:04will
50:04because
50:05given
50:06the
50:06nature
50:06of
50:07the
50:07very
50:08turbulent
50:09world
50:10right
50:10now
50:10where
50:11the
50:11United
50:11States
50:12is
50:12trying
50:12to
50:13unhinge
50:13and
50:13divorce
50:14itself
50:14from
50:15the
50:16economic
50:16order
50:17we
50:17have
50:18no
50:18one
50:18else
50:18but
50:19to
50:19depend
50:20on
50:20our
50:20initiatives
50:21and
50:22our
50:22political
50:22determination
50:23to
50:24strengthen
50:25region
50:25we
50:27just
50:27have
50:27about
50:27a
50:28minute
50:28or
50:28two
50:28left
50:29but
50:29Dr.
50:29Julie
50:29I
50:29do
50:30want
50:30to
50:30get
50:30your
50:30final
50:30thoughts
50:31on
50:31this
50:31as
50:32Dr.
50:32Farr
50:32says
50:33be it
50:34ASEAN
50:34the EU
50:35or
50:35the
50:35GCC
50:36you know
50:37there's
50:38this
50:38implementation
50:38gap
50:39right
50:40but
50:40when
50:40we're
50:41seeing
50:41conflicts
50:42like this
50:42prolonging
50:43we're
50:44seeing
50:44lives
50:45lost
50:45we're
50:46seeing
50:46civilizations
50:47being brought
50:48to ruins
50:48international
50:50norms
50:50broken
50:51and thrown
50:51out the
50:52window
50:52really
50:52does
50:54does
50:54this
50:54does
50:54this
50:54suggest
50:55just
50:55a
50:56breakdown
50:56in
50:57multilateral
50:57frameworks
50:58at
50:58large
50:59and
50:59is
50:59it
50:59time
50:59that
51:00we
51:00reconsider
51:01the
51:02global
51:02order
51:02or
51:03is
51:03that
51:03too
51:03big
51:03of a
51:04question
51:04maybe
51:04it's
51:06too big
51:06of a
51:07question
51:07for one
51:07minute
51:08but to
51:08answer it
51:09shortly
51:09yes
51:10we've
51:10definitely
51:10seen
51:10this
51:11breakdown
51:11of the
51:12international
51:12order
51:13something
51:13that we've
51:14been
51:14talking
51:14about
51:14for
51:15quite a
51:15long
51:15time
51:16already
51:16it's
51:17just
51:17the
51:18contours
51:18of the
51:18new
51:19one
51:19have
51:19not
51:19emerged
51:20yet
51:20but
51:21with
51:22the
51:23political
51:23rhetoric
51:23the
51:24actions
51:24the
51:25breach
51:25of
51:25sovereignty
51:26of
51:26sovereign
51:26states
51:27that
51:28has
51:28occurred
51:29just
51:29now
51:29I
51:31think
51:31it's
51:31quite
51:31clear
51:32that
51:32the
51:32international
51:33norms
51:34are being
51:34trampled
51:35and
51:35the
51:36global
51:36order
51:36that
51:37we
51:37established
51:37post-World
51:38War II
51:38is
51:40breaking
51:40down
51:41and
51:41we need
51:42some
51:42kind
51:43of a
51:43different
51:44global
51:44consensus
51:45which
51:45have not
51:46emerged
51:47yet
51:47and
51:48this
51:48brings
51:48us
51:49to
51:49the
51:49risks
51:49of
51:50this
51:50current
51:51escalation
51:51into
51:52third
51:53world
51:54war
51:55and
51:56the
51:56post
51:56settlements
51:57but
51:57we
51:57hope
51:58it
51:58won't
51:58reach
51:59there
51:59yeah
52:00let's
52:00hope
52:01so
52:01and
52:02we'll
52:02obviously
52:02keep
52:03a
52:03close
52:03eye
52:03on
52:04these
52:04developments
52:05and
52:05thank
52:06you
52:06so
52:06much
52:06to
52:06our
52:06panelists
52:07for
52:07helping
52:07us
52:08make
52:08sense
52:08of
52:08what's
52:09happening
52:09Dr.
52:10Far
52:10Kim
52:10Bang
52:10Dr.
52:11Julia
52:11Rognifad
52:12and
52:12Dr.
52:12Rustom
52:12Vansu
52:13sharing
52:14very
52:14critical
52:15valuable
52:15insights
52:16on
52:16what's
52:17happening
52:17today
52:17with
52:18Iran
52:18and
52:21been
52:21responding
52:21or
52:22like
52:22thereof
52:23to
52:24some
52:24of
52:24these
52:24developments
52:25thank
52:25you
52:25once
52:25again
52:25to
52:26our
52:26panelists
52:26thank
52:27you
52:27for
52:27tuning
52:27in
52:27to
52:28Dialogue
52:28ASEAN
52:2825
52:29we'll
52:29catch
52:29you
52:29another
52:29time
Recommended
54:47
|
Up next
47:03
4:51
29:47
25:32
27:19
2:07
25:18
27:31
27:29
25:14
6:31
4:40
28:00
27:31
1:57
12:27
2:23
2:01
Be the first to comment