00:00Norell has just reformed into a tropical cyclone off the Kimberley coast and over the coming days
00:06will bring weather impacts to large parts of northern and then western western Australia
00:11I'm Angus here at the Bureau of Meteorology this is a severe weather update focused in on Norell
00:16it's just gone 9am out west and let's check out the latest satellite imagery to see where Norell
00:21has been overnight and what it's been doing and the main thing it has been doing is strengthening
00:26intensifying as it has moved away from the Kimberley coast and into the Indian Ocean it
00:31has become a category one tropical cyclone once again and this is only forecast to increase
00:37currently Norell is just over 200 kilometers to the northwest of Broome and it's moving at around
00:43about 20 kilometers an hour in a south westward trajectory that's going to take it parallel
00:48to the Pilbara coastline over the course of the rest of the day today we can see the latest in
00:54the
00:54forecast track here it is likely to move in that south westward trajectory while continuing to
01:00intensify so Norell could be a category two tropical cyclone by the end of the day on Wednesday then
01:06continue to build into a severe category three tropical cyclone during Thursday morning but that
01:12is not the end of it either we continue to play out the map and we see a category four
01:17on our map
01:18Norell likely to really strengthen through the next few days could reach this category four strength
01:23that is a really powerful really major weather system by around the end of the day Thursday
01:28and then into Friday we will see this start to shift to the south and we'll talk more about that
01:33a little bit later on but for now let's focus in on the tropical cyclone watches and warnings which
01:38are in play for the moment for the next couple of days and they are these orange and yellow areas
01:44on our map here so we're mostly looking at areas along the Pilbara coast which are likely to be
01:49impacted by Norell in the next 48 hours or so the tropical cyclone warning well we've actually got
01:54two regions a small area here up around Beagle Bay that's really just for the next few hours the
01:59winds will ease there on Wednesday and then the focus for the remainder of Wednesday into Thursday
02:04into Friday will be the Pilbara coast where we've got warnings in place from Bidjadanga which is just
02:09south of Broome all the way through Port Headland, Karratha, Onslow out towards Exmouth at the moment the
02:15watch area well we expect that to turn into a warning in the next day or two but that goes
02:20through Coral Bay and down as far as Carnarvon so across this region the main risk in the coming
02:25few days will be damaging to destructive winds particularly along this stretch of coast from
02:31Karratha to Coral Bay we could see wind gusts in excess of 140 km an hour there later this week
02:37there will also be some really large waves along this coastline and some abnormally high tides
02:42so take care near the water and bands of rain and storms affected to sweep through even though
02:48a lot of the rainfall will be out over the Indian Ocean now let's go a little further ahead into
02:54the future see what happens after Narelle starts to move southwards it will continue to move at a
03:00fair rate of knots as it travels south and it will gradually drop down through those numbers that's
03:05going to mean it goes from a category 4 to a category 3 tropical cyclone on Friday before reaching the
03:11western Australia coastline then it is likely to make its coastal crossing probably the very early
03:17hours of Saturday morning based on current forecasts that coastal crossing is most likely to occur along
03:24the Gascoigne coast between Carnarvon and Calberry likely somewhere around the Shark Bay and Denham area
03:30as a severe category 3 tropical cyclone beyond this Narelle will continue to move southwards now
03:36gradually tracking inland that path would take it to the east of Perth over the Wheatbelt the Great
03:43Southern and down towards the Esperance coastline this could occur as a category 1 tropical cyclone
03:48but maybe it will have already fallen back into a tropical low pressure area by the time it gets near
03:54Perth this will bring some widespread weather impacts to the west coast of the state as we head
03:59through Friday night and into the weekend this is how that could look while tropical cyclone Narelle will
04:06be up in the far northwest we will see some rain and storms building over the central west and moving
04:10into Perth for Friday so we could already get quite a bit of rainfall ahead of the arrival of this
04:15system
04:16but the main band of rain and strong wind will be when this moves southwards across all western
04:22districts of Western Australia compared to what we were looking at yesterday perhaps this could all
04:26occur a little bit faster which means by the very end of the day Saturday the cyclone is already
04:32somewhere near the far south coast potentially ready to move off into the southern ocean early
04:38on the day on Sunday finally the last thing we'll look at in this video is a little look at
04:42rainfall
04:43accumulations that could occur both ahead of and with the tropical cyclone as it moves southwards
04:48widespread heavy rainfall expected all the way from Port Hedland and Exmouth all the way down to
04:54Bunbury and Albany some of our heaviest falls likely to be between Geraldton and Bunbury including
04:59around the Perth area 50 to 100 millimetres for many in that region certainly some places could see
05:04more than that that is absolutely enough rainfall to lead to flash flooding or rivers rising and bursting
05:11their banks so flooding does remain a distinct possibility and a distinct outcome as this weather
05:16system moves south we've got several more days of Narelle to watch follow track and warn for so stay up
05:23to date
05:23with the latest warnings and SES information throughout the rest of this week and this weekend thanks so much for
05:28watching
05:29for watching
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