00:00Tropical cyclone Norel continues to intensify over the Coral Sea off the coast of northern
00:04Queensland. It is moving west and is expected to cross the coast of far north Queensland
00:08during Friday. First, let's have a look at the latest satellite imagery. We can see this
00:13massive cloud over the northern Coral Sea just to the south of Papua New Guinea, and that is
00:17tropical cyclone Norel. It is currently a Category 2 system and is intensifying as it moves westward
00:22and towards the coast of Queensland. Ahead of landfall, we have issued a tropical cyclone watch
00:27and this covers communities between Weeper and Lockhart River in the north and in the south
00:32between Cowan Yama and across to Port Douglas. This also includes Cooktown as well as Cowan.
00:37Within this watch zone, we are expected to see gale force winds picking up within the next 24 to 48
00:42hours
00:43and because these are expected during Thursday, we are anticipating that this watch zone be upgraded
00:47to a warning later on Wednesday. And so having a look now at the latest track map, we can see
00:52tropical cyclone Norel currently a Category 2 system around 1,000 kilometres to the north east of Cairns.
00:58It will intensify further during Wednesday and is expected to reach severe Category 3 intensity by
01:03Wednesday night and intensifying even further during Thursday into the severe Category 4 system.
01:08The system could briefly reach severe Category 5 intensity on Thursday night into Friday,
01:13but at this stage is expected to cross the coast as a severe Category 4 system on Friday morning to
01:18the
01:18north of Cape Melville around the Cowan area. And the exact timing and intensity of landfall will change
01:24from track map update to track map update, so it is important that you have the latest information
01:28if you are within that watch zone. So what sorts of hazards are we expecting? Well, tropical cyclone
01:34categories relate only to their wind speed and wind speed strength. And so with a severe Category 4
01:38system, we could see wind gusts in excess of 250 kilometres an hour, particularly around the centre of
01:44the cyclone near crossing. Away from the centre, we could see wind gusts up to 155 kilometres an hour,
01:50and that applies for the entire watch zone area. Heavy into intense rainfall is also expected,
01:55and we could see those 24-hour rainfall totals between 100 in excess of 350 millimetres, and
02:01those high isolated falls are most likely near where the cyclone does cross. But we could also see heavy
02:06rainfall away from the watch zone, and that includes for the northern tropical coast down towards Cairns and
02:11areas to the north of Townsville. And that's because the tropical cyclone is drawing in a lot of
02:16moisture and pushing strong easterly winds onto the northern tropical coast. Further, we could also
02:21see large waves and dangerous ties as the system draws closer, and this could cause inundation of
02:26low-lying areas, particularly as you head into Thursday night and also Friday morning. So these are
02:31some of the hazards we can expect with tropical cyclone in Norel. What sort of impacts can communities see?
02:35Well, a severe Category 4 intensity cyclone can cause major damage. We are anticipating significant
02:42property damage, but that does include roofs being ripped off, damage to vehicles, as well as
02:46loose items becoming airborne. This source of wind speeds can also cause extensive vegetation damage,
02:52including trees being stripped of their leaves. And power lines could also topple, leading to widespread
02:57power outages. So it is important that you and your family make the necessary preparations ahead of
03:02landfall on Friday. We are also expected to see flooding across northern Queensland, and over the
03:07last few weeks and months, northern Queensland has seen a lot of rainfall, so catchments do remain very
03:12saturated. This means any additional rainfall could produce rapid flash flooding, as well as riverine
03:18flooding. So for this reason, we have issued flood watches for the entire Cape York Peninsula,
03:22including the northern tropical coast, including Cairns and down towards areas to the north of
03:26Townsville, which could see renewed flooding. We are also expecting to issue flood watches across the
03:31top end, and this includes for communities that are already experiencing flooding, including Catherine
03:36and Daly River. So do keep across any flood watch updates as we head into the weekend, if you are
03:41across the top end. And so once the system does cross the coast, what can we expect? Well, we can
03:46see
03:46here crossing the coast on Friday morning as a severe Category 4 system. From there, it is expected to
03:51move further towards the west and across Cape York Peninsula, maintaining cyclone strength and
03:56re-intensifying over the Gulf of Carpinteria as we head into Saturday, and we could see a second
04:01landfall across the eastern part of the top end on Saturday night as a severe Category 3 system.
04:06From there, the tropical cycle is expected to weaken back into a tropical low over the top end,
04:10but still bring very heavy rainfall right across the region. As we head into Monday, there is a little
04:16bit of uncertainty in some of the computer models, but at this stage, it is expected to continue moving
04:20towards the west and it could re-intensify back into a tropical cyclone and potentially looking
04:24at a third landfall across the western Australian coast as we head into next week. And so with that,
04:30we are also expected to see heavy rainfall right across northern Australia. Rainfall totals up to
04:35Monday morning could exceed 100 millimetres for broad areas from the Kimberley through the top end
04:40and northern Queensland. But we can see here, the highest rainfall totals will be very close to where
04:44the system does move over, but some of those high rainfall totals in excess of 200 to 300 millimetres
04:49are possible for the top end and around northern parts of Cape York Peninsula. So with tropical cycle
04:55Nurel expected to make its first landfall across northern Queensland on Friday, it is important that
05:00you have the latest information as you head into the weekend. You can get this on our website and app,
05:04follow us on social media, and as always, please stay safe.
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