00:00A tropical low around 1,300 kilometres to the east-northeast of Cooktown, likely to
00:05intensify into a tropical cyclone tomorrow and approach the far northern
00:10Queensland coast later this week. And we can see that on the satellite image
00:14showing widespread areas of rain and thunderstorms in the northeastern Coral
00:19Sea, well away from the Queensland coast. And that's starting to get bigger, as
00:23we've seen the last six hours. But what I want to show you is this system in the
00:27water vapour image. That can tell us a few things. Firstly, you can notice we see a
00:31persistent area of convection over the last 12 to 18 hours, and it's getting
00:36larger as well. So that's telling us that this low is deepening. Second of all, in
00:40terms of steering, there's two main steering influences that you can see on
00:44this imagery. Firstly, notice this anti-cyclonic motion here over the western
00:49Coral Sea and then over Queensland. Now that's an upper level ridge that will
00:53start influencing this system in the coming days. And while over here further to
00:57the east, you can see this southward eastward motion here, and that's
01:01indicating that upper trough has been influencing this system over the last 12
01:05to 24 hours. But that is now moving away. And notice the last few hours that
01:10southwesterly jog towards the Queensland coast. And that's telling us that this
01:14upper level ridge has now become the main steering influence of this system and
01:19will continue to do so in the coming days. And that's why we have pretty good
01:22confidence that this system will continue to move westwards towards the Queensland
01:26coast in the coming days. And because of that, cyclone watches are current for much
01:32of the Queensland coast for Lockhart River and Cooktown as this system
01:36approaches. Now as I mentioned, Category 1 tomorrow, Category 2 Thursday, and then
01:40approaching as a Category 3 system sometime on Friday between Lockhart River and Port
01:46Douglas. Now cyclone watches, as I mentioned, between Lockhart River and Port
01:49Douglas do include the towns of Cooktown and Cohen as well. So let's look at all
01:54of this in more detail. So today, tomorrow, and even into the early parts of
01:59Thursday, you'll notice it's going to be quite dry across much of eastern
02:03Queensland as those southerly or southeasterly winds run parallel to the
02:07coast. And that keeps most of the weather off the Queensland coast. But as this
02:12tropical low and cyclone approaches far northern Queensland through Thursday and
02:17Friday, we'll start to see those winds tend a bit more easterly, east-southeasterly, and
02:21that'll see the rain increase and the winds increase, particularly north of around
02:25Townsville and particularly around parts of the north tropical coast Thursday
02:29night into Friday. Now this just shows one scenario in which the track of this
02:34system could take. But there's a range of scenarios of where it could be
02:37crossing somewhere between Lockhart River and Cooktown in the coming days. So it is
02:41vital to make sure you stay up-to-date with the latest track maps issued by our
02:45website and also seen on our app. Now rainfall-wise, you're not going to see much in
02:50the next couple of days for many of our coastal areas, and the system is much
02:54further away. But as it approaches the coast on Thursday and Friday, we'll see
02:58that heavy rainfall develop through parts of the north tropical coast. But of
03:01particular note, we're going to see widespread heavy rainfall near and where
03:05this tropical cyclone crosses. And we're also likely to see damaging to
03:09destructive winds as well. Again, highly dependent on the exact track and
03:13intensity of where this cyclone goes. That's why it's so important to stay up
03:17to date with the latest forecasts and warnings by our website and on the app.
03:21Now rainfall on the north tropical coast. Widespread heavy rainfall across the
03:24peninsula. That is obviously leading to flood watchers current for many areas of
03:29far northern Queensland. And they could be extended southward as well once we get a
03:33better handle on just how intense and how far south or north the tropical
03:37cyclone system crosses later this week and into the weekend. And then we're likely to see it move
03:43into the Gulf of Carpentaria as we move into the weekend. So let's reiterate all
03:48that one more time. Cyclone watches current between Lockhart River and Port
03:52Douglas, including the towns of Cooktown and Cohen. Category 1 likely sometime
03:56tomorrow. Category 2 into Thursday. Then a Category 3 system as it approaches the
04:01coast of far northern Queensland, particularly the Peninsula District, on Friday. So
04:07that's why it's so important to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings by our
04:10website and app. And as it gets closer, you can listen to all advice and emergency
04:14services. Make sure your Cyclone's kit is ready and we'll continue to keep you updated
04:19here at the Bureau.
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