00:00Tropical cycle Norel crossed the eastern coast of the Top End in the early hours of Sunday
00:04morning as a severe Category 3 system. It has since been downgraded back to a tropical
00:09low but as it moves towards the west continues to bring heavy rain, damaging wind and flooding
00:13risk to communities right across the Top End.
00:16First, let's have a look at overnight satellite imagery. We can see here on Saturday night
00:20severe tropical cycle Norel moving towards the eastern coast of the gulf, crossing just
00:25near Cape Shield in the early hours of Sunday morning. It did then continue moving overland
00:29and gradually weakening back into a tropical low but it is still drawing a lot of tropical
00:33moisture down from the north with heavy rain as well as strong and damaging winds wrapping
00:37into the centre of the system itself. Overnight we did see some pockets of heavy rainfall
00:42about the coast with some locations recording more than 100mm and we also did see a number
00:47of locations recording wind gusts of more than 90km an hour but this is quite a remote part
00:52of the country and so the observation network is quite sparse. So it is likely that we did
00:56see much stronger wind gusts right near where the centre of the cyclone did cross.
00:59And so with tropical cycle Norel now an ex-tropical cyclone, we have now cancelled that tropical
01:05cycle warning across the Top End. However, you will notice that we have issued a new tropical
01:09cycle warning that includes for northern parts of the Kimberley coast in Western Australia
01:14as the low tracks towards the west and we will look at that in just a moment.
01:18Although tropical cycle Norel is now a tropical low, we are still experiencing and expecting severe
01:23weather across the Top End. We do have a severe weather warning current for heavy into intense rainfall
01:28and damaging winds. This extends from eastern parts of the Top End through Catherine and towards
01:33the west coast and also takes in the Darwin area. As the low pressure system moves towards the west
01:38during Sunday, we will see heavy rainfall totals of up to 230mm over the 24 hour period and even high
01:45localised falls particularly just to the north of Catherine. And we may also see damaging wind
01:49gusts particularly on the southern flank of this low pressure system. Additionally, we do have
01:54abnormally high tides across parts of the Gulf Coast with very strong winds still pouring onto the coast.
02:00And we will see these conditions gradually easing from the east as we head into Sunday night and
02:04also into Monday morning. Now having a look at the latest flooding situation, we still have flood
02:09watches current right across northern Australia. For Queensland, river levels remain high so do check
02:14the latest conditions before you head out there. But through the Top End, we do have major flood warnings for
02:18Catherine, Waterhouse and Daly Rivers. With rainfall totals expected to exceed 200mm, we are expecting to
02:25see the Catherine and Waterhouse rivers return to major flooding. And for the Daly River that is already
02:30in major flood, we are expected to see that major flood peak maintained for quite some time. And we also
02:36do have a flood watch current which extends all the way towards Broome in Western Australia. So now let's have
02:41a look at the track map again. For the rest of Sunday, we see ex-tropical cyclone arel moving towards
02:47the west over the top end. And by Monday morning, it is expected to move over the Gulf of Joseph
02:51Bonaparte.
02:52And we do have a tropical cyclone warning current all the way from King George river mouth over towards
02:57the northern territory border. It really only has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over open
03:02water. But we are still expecting to see gale force winds within this warning area on Monday. Now as we
03:08head into
03:09the next few days after that, we see the tropical low moving over the northern Kimberley bringing heavy
03:13rain and also possibly damaging winds. And then as we head into Tuesday, it is expected to rapidly
03:18intensify back into a tropical cyclone as we look into Wednesday. And by Thursday morning could reach
03:23severe category 3 strength. And at this stage, it is expected to remain off the Pilbara coast where we
03:28could still see very strong to gale force winds right along the coast as well as large waves and showers
03:33pushing down into the second part of next week. And so now what does it look like towards the
03:38weekend? Well, we do see the models continuing to start to curve the tropical cyclone back towards
03:43the Western Australian coastline, but there is still a range of scenarios still possible.
03:47One scenario does keep that tropical cyclone well off the coast, but still bringing some
03:51large waves as well as winds onto the west coast of Western Australia. But another scenario which is
03:55possible is that the tropical cyclone does actually curve a little bit further towards east and move over
04:00the Gascoyne and also midwest coast of Western Australia, potentially bringing showers down towards the
04:05Wheatbelt and even as far south as Perth. So if you are across Western Australia in the coming week,
04:11do check that latest tracker map as well as forecast over the next few days.
04:14And so with tropical cyclone and rail now an ex-tropical cyclone, we are still anticipating
04:19severe weather right across the top end this weekend. Be sure to check for the latest forecasts
04:23and warnings on our website and app, follow us on social media, and as always, please stay safe.
Comments