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00:00Welcome back to the early line here on Sports Grid. It's time now to talk some NCAA tournament.
00:05I know the field of 68 is really a thing or 72 or 100. But Joe, I'm into the field
00:11of 64. And
00:11that all begins today at noon Eastern. We're going to break down some of the games here and
00:16get started. And I got to tell you, I've never seen an NCAA tournament with these lines like
00:22this. I mean, I've been following this, Joe, a long time, as long as you probably the same longer.
00:27I mean, every game here is a 10 or a 20 or even a 30. And this new day and
00:34age of the
00:34NIL, I guess it just made the teams better and some teams worse. Because look at this
00:40line here as we start off with Idaho taking on Houston. These lines of 23 and a half, as
00:46you can see, Houston's much better than Idaho. I understand that. But these lines were used
00:51to reserve for the 1-16 matchup. But here we are in a 2-15, 10-10 Eastern. And Houston,
00:59who is closing in on a number one seat at the NCAA in the regular season, came up just short.
01:05Their style of play is holding the ball and playing great defense. Total 1-37 and a half in this
01:11game.
01:12Yeah. It's funny. You mentioned the ridiculous spreads, Craig. And when I first glanced at it,
01:18I thought I was looking at the NBA. And then I realized, oh, no, this is the field of 64.
01:23Because the NBA is no different with these ridiculous spreads that we're getting. But,
01:28listen, we've had four underdogs in the play-in game so far. Have not only covered here,
01:34but have somehow managed to move on. You saw two more last night with Prairie View and Miami of
01:40Ohio. But now that we get to the 64, this number is this number for a reason. Listen,
01:47Idaho, great feel-good story out of Big Sky. But they have not been to the tournament since,
01:53what, 1990? Their Wikipedia page, Craig, doesn't even carry any of their stats past 2018.
02:01They kind of gave up on the team here or following them. But they ran the table there in the
02:07Big Sky
02:07tournament. Here they find themselves lucky enough to take on Coach Sampson and Houston. I don't think
02:14it's going to be close. They don't do anything particularly well. But usually what happens
02:18with teams like this is that Houston boat races them early and then just takes the air out of the
02:25ball, slows the game down in the second half. I have a feeling this is likely what's going to happen
02:29here, Craig. I think cut these big spreads in half. Take Houston in the first half and then just
02:36kind of sit back and watch the mauling continue. Yeah, I mean, the good thing about this is that
02:41it's possible we get the biggest upsets in the history of the NCAA tournament, if a lot come in.
02:45But I don't know. I mean, they set these lines for a reason and they're usually pretty good at it.
02:49They're not, they're going to build another casino off some of these wins. But anyway,
02:53all right. So Howard is in the NCAA tournament. They won earlier this week to jump in
02:57and they're taking on Michigan. Congrats to them. Michigan 31 and a half point favorites,
03:03total of 151 and a half. And if you really got the stones to take Howard here, yeah, that's probably
03:10not something that I'm willing to do. We've seen a couple of 116s in the history of the tournament.
03:15Joe, I don't anticipate this being one. I know Michigan's seething a little bit after that loss
03:20to Purdue on Sunday. I'm guessing they come out stronger here. Yeah. And kudos to Howard. I mean,
03:26a good win by them against UMBC, who was one of the hotter teams in the country, but so is
03:32Howard
03:33here. They've been running the table as of late. They're an experienced team. They're always the
03:38class of the MEAC. But again, there are classes here. And right now, this is might be one of the
03:44biggest step up in classes that Howard has seen in a very long time. Their entire game plan, Craig,
03:49is to pressure the guards, right? They love to throw a lot of bodies at the guards, force turnovers,
03:55and score easy buckets. You are not going to make the guards of Michigan sweat here, Howard.
04:01Michigan, I'm with you. I think has a bad taste in her mouth in that last game against Purdue.
04:07This too, I would cut in half, though. I would also look to back Michigan early and sit back and
04:14watch
04:14it all unfold in the second half. Part of the story of the tournament is who's hot going in.
04:19And for Virginia Commonwealth, that is the story here. One of the hottest teams in the country
04:25entering the NCAA tournament. They got a tough matchup to begin here against North Carolina.
04:30The Tar Heels are two and a half point favorites with a total of 152 and a half. But Joe,
04:35when it
04:36comes to this sort of stuff, these teams like VCU, and I understand, look, they've got a lot of history
04:41playing in the tournament and being one of those higher seeds and advancing. But I usually like to ride
04:47these kind of teams, the teams that are hot going in and keep it going.
04:52Yes. And listen, no, Caleb Wilson and North Carolina is a fundamentally different team
04:58without him on the court. And we have seen that. That's not the team that beat Duke.
05:02You know, Wilson was a big part of that. And VCU, to your point, Craig, comes in as one of
05:08the
05:08most complete mid-major teams that you're going to see out of the A-10. But, you know,
05:13there are levels to this, right? These two teams know one another. I mean, they're both in the
05:19same vicinity there in the same part of the country. They both understand what each program
05:24and the history behind it. It just feels like North Carolina, another one of these class games
05:31where North Carolina, even their backups are still better than some of the starters on VCU. So I tend
05:38to think that while it may sweat a little while, I think North Carolina, the better team, will
05:43eventually win. One of the earlier games on Thursday is a point spread that should be probably
05:4913 or 14. But because of the head coach of the team, it's 16 and a half because you dare
05:56not go
05:56against Tom Izzo in the month of March. They take on North Dakota State. The Spartans are 16 and a
06:03half
06:04point favorites. You see 15 and a half there. So some steam coming toward North Dakota State. But
06:11this is just not one of those teams that I like to fade in the early rounds of the tournament.
06:15Now
06:15there's a lot of mixed opinions on how good Joe Michigan State actually is this season. They got
06:20themselves a three seed. They're laying 16 and a half in this game. If the defense shows up for
06:26Michigan State, which has been MIA for the entire month of February, but if they show up, Craig, this
06:32game is a absolute blowout. If fears keeps hitting guys in the groin and turns the ball over, not going
06:38to happen here. It could be a lot closer than Michigan State likes. Texas got themselves a win
06:44in the play-in to move toward this Thursday night game against BYU. Clearly a month ago, you would
06:51have thought that Texas would be favored in this game, but they had a really rough stretch entering
06:55the tournament. They are two and a half point dogs to the Cougars. A total is 157 and a half.
07:02This is
07:02tonight at 725 Eastern. I, in these spots, I want the team with the best player on the court,
07:10and that team is BYU and AJ DeBansta. We'll be back breaking down more of March Madness here
07:18on the Early Line next. Welcome back to the Early Line here on Sports Grid. Get ready for a little
07:23Prairie View basketball this week in the NCAA tournament. Maybe only one game, probably.
07:29They take care of Lehigh last night, 67 to 55, so they pull off the minor upset. They get to
07:37take
07:37on my Gators in the next round. How's that going to go? Before we get to that, let's get to
07:43Tremaine
07:44Jackson, as Prairie View's head coach, talked about getting the big win.
07:50I forgot what happened. Did we just win? That's how quickly you have to move on. You're already
07:57thinking about, you know, this deal right here. You know, that's already on my mind how we're
08:01going to be able to, what can we do against a machine like that? But we will show up and
08:05we'll put our best foot forward and, you know, we'll see where we are. But obviously, you know,
08:09I'm going to try to enjoy, you know, with our players tonight. Our esteemed AD here who's kind
08:16of escorting me tonight, makes me feel special when your boss kind of walks in with you,
08:19Anton Goff. So I'm excited that he's here. So, but we're going to go in and do the very
08:23best we can and just try to keep this thing moving. Ultimately demanded so much traffic
08:28on a night where we needed to play really well and we just didn't necessarily shoot the ball
08:33as well as we needed to. But this moment and this disappointment doesn't define the season
08:39that we had and it doesn't define these young men. Their productivity, as strong as they
08:44played. And I couldn't be more proud of them. I couldn't be more proud of the way in which
08:48they represented Lehigh University. And I care a great deal about each and every one of them.
08:55Yeah. It's kind of like the team that got this draw, got the worst draw of them all. It feels
09:00like Joe, again, because the Gators are playing in Tampa and 35 and a half point favorites are going
09:06to be in this game. I mean, look, this is one of those rare situations. Look, I understand,
09:10you know, proximity wise, you and I know, Joe, living in Florida, how far these places are from
09:16one another. Couple of hours, basically, is what we're talking about here. That place is going to
09:20be absolutely rocking. I feel a little bad for Prairie View because outside of keeping this close
09:26to the first half, they're not going to win this game.
09:29Well, but listen, kudos to them because I think they've won eight in a row now. They finished the
09:35year strong. Nobody expected. This is their first tournament win, right? So, I mean, that's huge for
09:41a mid-major program like a Prairie View. Getting a chance to go to a tournament game, you know,
09:47the play-in and actually win it is going to do wonders for that program and for that school.
09:53And for Lehigh, you know, they have been there. They're famous for that 2012 upset of Duke
09:59in the tournament, and they haven't been back since. But the reality is Nasir Whitlock, their
10:05Patriot League MVP, the guy that carried them all year, was held scoreless until about 13 minutes ago
10:12in the second half. So, if your best player doesn't show up on the biggest stage, you got very little
10:17chance to win. But kudos to Prairie View. Enjoy it now because I don't know how much celebrating
10:22they're going to be doing after the Florida game there, Craig.
10:25Maybe a little bit more for Miami, Ohio, the marquee game of the first four. They end up pulling
10:31off an upset against SMU. So, naturally, everyone had Miami, Ohio, maybe going to the second round of
10:40the NCAA tournament, but they still had to get through that first four. They did by winning
10:44against the Mustangs last night, 89-79. Here's Miami, Ohio head coach Travis Steele on getting to the
10:53next round. You know, number one, really appreciated all the Miami fans showing out tonight.
10:58In a lot of ways, it was a home game for us. You know, it's such a unique opportunity to
11:02come
11:02watch an NCAA tournament game. We're only 50 minutes away from campus, so very, very appreciative of
11:08that. But again, listen, we have great players, and I've been saying this the whole year, but we have
11:12better human beings. Our guys play for one another. They play the right way. I think we finished with 20
11:17assists, four turnovers on the game. My goal is to get up at least 40 threes, shot 41 threes,
11:23and I felt like if we could just neutralize them on the glass, because they are so big, and they're
11:29athletic, and they're tough, I thought we'd give ourselves a really good opportunity to come away
11:34with a win, which we ended up being even on the glass, 35-35. The message I gave our guys
11:41before
11:41the game was to be, there should be leave no doubt with who the more attacking team was,
11:46and I thought that was very evident from the jump ball all the way to the very end of the
11:50game.
11:50But really proud of our guys. Obviously, there's a lot left to be done yet.
11:54Well, we're very proud of these players seated next to me and the rest of our team. We had a
11:59really
12:00good year at SMU. Made March Madness first time in nine years at the school, so they meant a lot
12:05to
12:05this program, especially Boopy and BJ and Sumet, the returnees, and of course, Corey and Jerron,
12:12Sam and Sam were transfers that came this year, and to do what they did, to win 20 games and
12:18compete at the highest level. Good progress for SMU, but the team to watch is Miami, Ohio.
12:25We got more March Madness preview coming up next here on The Early Line.
12:30All right, welcome back to The Early Line here on Sports Grid. The NCAA tournament, of course,
12:34officially gets underway, in my opinion, today at 12 o'clock Eastern, the field of 64,
12:41is set. So what has been happening in the last 48 hours? Our next guest has been diving into the
12:48numbers. He's been busting open the bracket. He's trying to pick the upsets, and then he gets
12:53through his first bracket, and he's like, that's not good enough. I'm going to do another one,
12:56and then another one, and then another one. Hopefully not that. Coach JY, James Young is in the house. Joe
13:03and JY going to chop up the NCAA tournament, go over some picks.
13:08JY, welcome back to The Early Line here, and I got to imagine, for a guy like you, I mean,
13:14what does the next four days look like here? A lot of couch? A lot of watching? What else?
13:19It depends on the kind of time of day. A lot of coffee, a lot of beer, maybe a little
13:23bourbon at the end of the night. I don't know, but it's that time. It's that time of year, Joe,
13:30where we get to talk hoops, and we are loaded with action. Folks, get ready, because this is the time
13:38of year.
13:39Ah, the madness begins, Coach. You got to love it here, and it's going to start a couple of fascinating
13:45games I want to go over with you, because in the tournament, single elimination, styles make fights, right?
13:53Well, you got Bucky Ball going on with Texas A&M here, and they have never met a game or
13:59a three they didn't like to take or run up and down the court.
14:02The problem is, they're taking on St. Mary's. You can't find two teams the polar opposite the way they want
14:08to play than these two teams.
14:11So, this one coming up out of the south bracket here, A&M, two-and-a-half point dog against
14:17St. Mary's, 147-and-a-half, which is high for a St. Mary's game, but what do you think?
14:22What style wins out here, Coach?
14:25I think it's St. Mary's style that wins out, and I think Coach Bennett's actually underrated offensively.
14:31I actually had a good talk with my good friend Mark Campbell, the head women's coach at TCU, and he
14:36credited a lot of his offensive game planning to St. Mary's' game planning.
14:41Well, I'm like, wait, St. Mary's offense? And you kind of put it together, and their offense in the pick
14:46and roll is pretty good.
14:47So, I like St. Mary's here on the money line, but to me, they're the team that if they want
14:52to win this game, it's got to be more likely to be under that 147-and-a-half number.
14:56If you'd like the over, then you'd probably go the other way, Texas A&M, that wants to get up
15:00and down the floor and shoot some threes.
15:02But I like Coach Bennett's crew, a dangerous crew at the 17th to get the win on the money line.
15:08Yeah, it's going to be a fun one. It's going to be interesting to see how that works.
15:12Bucky's done a great job with A&M this season. Nobody expected him to even make it to this particular
15:18point.
15:18I don't think anybody expected Penn to have a whole lot of success either with good old Coach McCaffrey.
15:24So, I think this is now the fifth team or some ridiculous number that he has actually brought to the
15:30tournament.
15:31No longer are the days of Iowa, but now Penn's got to take on Illinois, Coach.
15:37And this is another one of these, what, 21-and-a-half, 23-and-a-half? It's even higher than
15:42that now.
15:4325-and-a-half now. Illinois is a favorite.
15:46What do we think? Can the boys at Penn hang with Illinois?
15:51Well, listen, shout-out to my good friend, Fran McCaffrey.
15:54I talked to Fran right after the game, and he was just so excited.
15:57That win that took place over Yale.
15:59By the way, Coach Jones, I know Coach Jones as well.
16:01I mean, what they did at the end of that game was criminal in regard to how they coughed up
16:06that game.
16:06You know, calling a timeout up three, then not fouling, then letting, obviously, T.J. Power, who went nuclear.
16:13And T.J. Power, who's a big-time player, scores about 20 points, 8.8 rebounds.
16:17To me, the thing that's going to be the struggle for Penn is going to be the ability to stop
16:21Illinois.
16:22This is the Illinois team, Joe.
16:24That's number one in offensive efficiency for most of the country, most of the season, I should say.
16:28Wagler and Basler are as good as they get in the backcourt.
16:31But then you have to look at Mikovic in the frontcourt, which gives you about, you know, 16 points and
16:36seven rebounds a game.
16:37Just way too much.
16:39I'm concerned about the spread and that backdoor coverage, Joe, with that big number.
16:46But to me, if you look at anything, you can go with either Illinois first half or just like the
16:50Illinois team total.
16:51I just think they score, and they score at will versus Penn.
16:56Yeah.
16:56Offensively, not great, Penn.
16:58But they won a lot of games with their defense down the stretch to get them to this point.
17:02So kudos there to Coach McCaffrey.
17:04I'm looking forward to this game a lot in the Midwest, Coach, because who doesn't love what the Billikens and
17:10Robbie Avila brought to the table this year?
17:13This was outside of Miami of Ohio.
17:15Would have been the story of the year from the mid-majors.
17:18But they kind of lost focus a little bit there at the end of the season.
17:23And now they've got to take on a Georgia team there with Mike White, who, again, is going to run
17:29up and down the court.
17:30I don't know if we should look at the over in this game.
17:32It's only two and a half.
17:34That's what the Billikens are getting.
17:36Is this the first mid-major upset for you?
17:40This could be an upset right here.
17:41And I wouldn't be shocked.
17:42Robbie Avila, a.k.a.
17:44Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, still one of the great all-time nicknames in college basketball for the last 20 or so
17:50years.
17:50Big Robbie can play.
17:52And anybody, if you have time, go watch the end of that Dayton game, which was one of the wildest
17:5715 seconds of basketball you'll ever see in regards to shot making by both teams.
18:02The concern here, obviously, with both teams is defensively.
18:06Listen, you look at the Bulldogs.
18:08They give up 83 points per game over their last 10 games.
18:12They're going to run.
18:13Mike White, that's all he does.
18:15He's going to get put down the floor.
18:16Look at the over in this game because St. Louis can score and score pretty well as well.
18:21So look for that game to go over.
18:23Yeah, I can't sweat out and under there.
18:25I'm with you, Coach.
18:26Not at all.
18:26And then, of course, we get to see the Zags try to make another run here.
18:31Pretty good spot as a number three seed.
18:33Taking on Kennesaw State, who has also been known to put up a few points here.
18:39But, I mean, look, I mean, Coach, 21 and a half.
18:42It's been nothing but Zags money in the market.
18:45154 and a half.
18:48Isn't this the Zags time of year?
18:49This is where they start making a run?
18:52Yeah, they start making a run here with Gonzaga.
18:55So I like them minus the points.
18:57Graham E.K., Grant Foster.
18:59You know, obviously, you know, losing Huff has hurt them.
19:02But they just got too many dudes.
19:04And this is the time of year where Mark Few makes a run.
19:07Kennesaw State will shoot a ton of threes.
19:09Probably shoot themselves out of the game.
19:11If there's a 20-point favorite I like today in that range, this is this one.
19:16Lay the points with the Zags.
19:18Got to love it.
19:19It is Mark Few and company.
19:21It is the most beautiful time of year here, Coach, because it's madness.
19:25And we might have a couple of upsets here.
19:28So I'm looking excited here for this first round.
19:31A little chalky at the top, but maybe, just maybe,
19:35we got a couple of plus-money dogs coming our way there, Craig.
19:38And I know Mish is all over it.
19:40Yeah, I can't wait to see the South Florida Bulls win their first game against the U.
19:46That's my big upset today.
19:49Don't go away.
19:49Welcome back to the Early Line.
19:51As we wrap up this first hour, we bring back Coach Young, J.Y. here to break down some more
19:55games.
19:55Of course, Joe Ranieri as well in the house.
19:58I'm filling in for Donnie Wrightside today.
20:00You can catch Donnie later today on our college basketball coverage.
20:03All right, let's continue our breakdown of the games.
20:06Coach, back to you for this one.
20:08Ohio State takes on TCU, 12-15 Eastern.
20:12I'm a little confused with TCU this season.
20:15I know they had a really good year.
20:16They had some really strange losses.
20:19UCF, Colorado.
20:21You know, I guess Ohio State is the better team here, Coach.
20:24But, you know, TCU may be the more talented team.
20:27I don't know if that's fair.
20:27I don't know what to expect out of them.
20:29I'll toss to you for that.
20:30I think TCU is the better team.
20:33I think they've been more challenged.
20:35And I think Jamie Dixon is one of these coaches.
20:37I wrote an article last week on myself, Zach, about the greatest coaches of my life in the last 50
20:43years, Joe.
20:44And I forgot about Jamie Dixon.
20:47Jamie Dixon's done a hell of a job for a long time.
20:49I like TCU on the money line to get the win.
20:52And I will say this.
20:54Look at what they've done during the regular season.
20:57They gave teams scares.
20:59And they're going to give Duke a scare.
21:02I'm not saying they're going to beat them.
21:04I'm saying they're going to be in the game.
21:07Look for TCU to win on the money line today.
21:10One of the big storylines, Coach, that we know.
21:14It's well documented.
21:15But the Nebraska Cornhuskers and Coach Fred Hoiberg, they've never won a tournament game.
21:210-8, in fact.
21:23And they are sliding here.
21:26I mean, what were they?
21:266-6 down the stretch on the season.
21:29They started the season 20-0.
21:31Troy's not going to roll over for them.
21:33I watched that, what, double or triple overtime game against San Diego State out west.
21:38This is a tough team, Troy.
21:40I don't think they win.
21:41But can they keep it within the 13, 13-and-a-half points here?
21:46Yeah, this is a game that's going to be a live play for me, Joe, because of Troy's ability to
21:50shoot the ball and shoot themselves back in the games.
21:52To me, Nebraska, when you have a team, Joe, that hasn't won a game ever in their NCAA tournament history
21:58being 0-8, to me, what you may want to do if you're Freddie Hoiberg is maybe take him in
22:03the first half and just say, you know what?
22:05Let's get off to a good start.
22:06Let's get a lead.
22:07Let's get up by eight or nine points at the break.
22:09And let's hold on.
22:10So, to me, I think it's the way you play it.
22:1312-and-a-half, big number.
22:14Lay the points in the first half.
22:16Freddie Hoiberg seems really good defensively.
22:18Look for him to lock down defensively.
22:20Maybe Troy makes a run.
22:21That's why I'm worried about the backdoor cover.
22:23Lay the points in the first half for the Cornhuskers.
22:25All right.
22:26Well, I'm not sure this number is high enough here, Coach.
22:30But Duke is taking on your boys from Siena.
22:33And, I mean, kudos.
22:35It's been a fun year for them.
22:36They've done a great job.
22:38Are they going to keep it even within 30 in this game?
22:43No, they're not.
22:45And let's give a shout-out to Jerry McNamara.
22:48Jerry McNamara, let's be honest, should have got the Syracuse job when Jimmy Baham stepped down and gave it to
22:54Adrian Autry.
22:54We saw what a mitigated disaster that was.
22:58So, to me, folks, this could be Jerry McNamara's last game at Siena, right in Laudanville, New York, right in
23:04upstate, not too far from Syracuse.
23:06But, listen, Duke's going to roll them.
23:08The thing we need to know about Duke, the big man, and obviously we don't have Foster.
23:14We've got to see when these guys come back.
23:16Duke needs to be whole here.
23:18And I think that's the storyline that's going on in the NCAA tournament is a lot of these top teams,
23:22Joe,
23:23are dealing with injuries.
23:26Yep.
23:27Big time.
23:27Yeah, by the way, Siena, last time to the dance, 2010, by the way.
23:32That's Coach Fran McCaffrey was then the coach on the sidelines there.
23:37So, kudos to them.
23:39All right, we've got one other one, Coach, in which I am not sweating out and under.
23:43McNeese and Vandy here.
23:45Did Vandy leave it all out on the court?
23:47Do they have enough to be able to win this game and win it by double digits?
23:54150 and a half points in an NCAA tournament game.
23:58Holy.
23:59Will Wayne left the team, but he did not leave the system.
24:03They will run, run, run.
24:06And the guard play with Vandy has been absolutely fantastic, Joe.
24:09I look at Vandy and take the team total over, maybe over in the game.
24:13McNeese, some teams will do what they do.
24:15McNeese State is one of them.
24:16So, Vandy without standing guard play, they keep it rolling.
24:20Vandy with the win, take the over.
24:24Yeah, it seems like, you know, NIT games, Coach, we've gotten a ton of overs.
24:28Are we expecting these early on games, first couple of rounds, some unders here, at least early in these games?
24:35Yeah, especially these teams, it's a style make fights.
24:37So, look for games to slow down a little bit.
24:39That's why teams like Purdue, teams like that are going to be good in a tournament
24:42because half-court basketball really wins in March.
24:47Yeah, it's what it's all about.
24:48And I am looking forward to it.
24:50I know Craig's already had to switch to get his South Florida Bulls jersey on.
24:55Are you ready, Craig?
24:56Upset of the day?
24:59On the Bulls, my heart is with the Gators.
25:03South Florida women.
25:04We'll win that game.
25:08All right, welcome back to the Early Line here on Sports Grid, college basketball coverage throughout the day,
25:13including this show, including Newswire, including our coverage at 3 p.m. Eastern.
25:17Kevin Walsh will be part of that, getting you ready for the evening games.
25:20There's like that one-hour gap, I think, in between the day and the night.
25:24Kevin will recap the first half of the games and then preview the night,
25:26but he's going to join us now to talk about that as well.
25:29Kevin, great to have you here on the Early Line along with Joe Ranieri.
25:33And are you ready?
25:34Are you ready to go here?
25:34Long days ahead for us here in the next couple days.
25:37Yeah, it is.
25:39But in a way, at least the way I, I don't know, maybe I put too much into it.
25:43But because I feel like I have to break every single game down in order to fill out the bracket
25:48of the first round,
25:50almost all of the bets are in now for both Thursday and Friday,
25:54which kind of will allow me to sit back and enjoy.
25:58And then I'm sure bet live where it's like, wait, that's not going well.
26:02You know what?
26:03Maybe they're not going to cover the 10 and a half, but this 18 and a half looks pretty good.
26:08So we'll have the chance to jump in in-game during the show later today, as you mentioned, Craig.
26:14And just really, really excited to get these games going here.
26:19All right.
26:19So let's dive in.
26:20The three of us here, the Early Lines game of the day.
26:23We have the 11th seed South Florida taking on number six Louisville Thursday.
26:28That's today, 1.30 p.m. Eastern.
26:30We know that Louisville, Kevin, will be missing one of their key players in this one.
26:34And we also know that South Florida, as far as teams entering the NCAA tournament,
26:39is as hot as any team jumping in here.
26:42So is this a live dog for you?
26:44Or as Joe pointed out earlier in the show, when everybody is on one side,
26:48it does become a little bit scary.
26:51The thing is, it's tough, right?
26:53Because I more than see where Joe is coming from.
26:57Sometimes, though, these teams just like, they're the right side.
27:02Um, we've seen that where it's like, everyone talks about McNeese last year.
27:09And then they just knock off Clemson.
27:11I ultimately felt less conviction on the side and felt more comfortable with what is supposed
27:20to be a high-scoring game being even more high-scoring than the books project.
27:25But, funny enough, I'm only focusing on the Louisville side of it.
27:30Because South Florida is going to play up and down, up and down.
27:34And if they can get it going here and they can score 95, they might win this game.
27:39But I feel very confident in what Louisville is going to bring to the table.
27:43When I've seen some similar or even lesser offenses play South Florida out of conference,
27:50they played OSU, right, Oklahoma State, 103-95, that final score for South Florida.
27:58Alabama, they played 104-93, that final score.
28:03They even played a George Washington team, right, where that game was 99-95.
28:08The Louisville team total, and it's not very expensive juice-wise.
28:12I bet earlier at a minus 120, I think you get around minus 105 now.
28:1684-and-a-half.
28:17I know Mikel Brown's out, I know he's really good, but they're used to Mikel Brown not being
28:23out there and available for them.
28:25So, I like this Louisville team total here.
28:28Actually, one of my favorite bets on this Thursday.
28:32All right, there you go.
28:34All right, so now, it's funny because we could make a case, and you know a lot of people are
28:39here, Kev.
28:40If every dog from a mid-major that's, you know, won 18 or more games and can shoot the
28:46three is live to upset.
28:49High Point is not beating Wisconsin.
28:51Sorry, not going to happen.
28:53We may get some points here, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a game that they have
29:00stepped up in competition like they're about to here today against Wisconsin.
29:04We've seen Wisconsin beat five of the best teams in the country in this tournament.
29:09Is High Point going to shock us all here and upset Wisconsin?
29:14I actually think they can.
29:16Now, to be fair, you hit on something that I felt stood out a lot to me, Joe, when I
29:22was
29:22going through the lower-level teams here.
29:25Not a lot of them even tried games against, like, big-level teams, right?
29:31Like, hey, let's get this under our belt.
29:34Let's see what this is like.
29:37We just, like, High Point's toughest opponent out of conference, App State, UAB.
29:43So, I totally see where you're coming from.
29:47The thing is, we're going to see some upset somewhere.
29:49And High Point is on the longest win streak right now at 14 consecutive.
29:55And I think they guard the three well enough to throw some variance in the mix here.
30:01But you have to be able to score the ball in order to upset Wisconsin, right?
30:05And we know High Point can.
30:08The 10.5, to me, Joe, is something that I'm going to play.
30:12And I'll say this because I think we're on opposite sides of that game.
30:15It is the tournament, right?
30:17Like, we're all betting one of today's 16 games.
30:21People are going to be on opposite sides, right?
30:24And ultimately, it's going to be about your own conviction here.
30:28I think Wisconsin, if this was a November game, Joe, you're right.
30:33I'm probably not on High Point here.
30:34But it is the tournament.
30:36And things get wild.
30:37And I think High Point does actually have the chance to muck it up here with the Badgers.
30:43Kevin, Hawaii, another one of those really hot teams entering the NCAA tournament, but not seeing any love here from
30:49the oddsmakers because Arkansas had this great run in the SEC tournament.
30:53They're 15.5-point favorites, total of 160.5.
30:57I mean, generally, this tournament I don't think is going to be uneven here, Kevin, meaning I think this is
31:02going to go one way or the other.
31:03Either a lot of these big numbers are going to be covered, or we're just going to see the chalk
31:07play out like it did a year ago.
31:10Yeah, I mean, I would hope we get, like, some balance.
31:14The one thing I would say is if we do have a lot of chalk, it sets us up for
31:18a phenomenal Saturday and Sunday.
31:22If we get Arkansas-Wisconsin, I mean, that's just fantastic.
31:25St. John's, Kansas, right, in the 4-5.
31:28That's an absolute treat.
31:30Vanderbilt and Tennessee.
31:32History says, though, you know, you take one of those and like it, right?
31:37Maybe two and like it here.
31:40What I will say for Arkansas-Hawaii, I'm playing it towards the under at 160.5.
31:47Hawaii, I don't think will be thrown by the pace of Arkansas, but I do think their commitment to just
31:56play one-on-one defense might actually slow the Razorbacks down.
32:01Just pace-wise.
32:03Again, Darius Acuff has a points prop of around 26.5.
32:06The idea is he basically starts this game at 20 and could very well, if it's close enough, go to
32:1230, 35 within this basketball game.
32:15But sometimes those ISO possessions take a little bit longer here.
32:19Razorbacks are a really good defense, better than anything Hawaii's seen.
32:22All right, Kevin, thanks a lot.
32:24We'll be back with more of the early line.
32:26It's March Madness style here on Sports Grid.
32:29All right, let's get to our poll of the day.
32:31Fade the public here.
32:33We've got Wisconsin.
32:34We've got South Florida.
32:37We've got a lot of teams that could potentially win.
32:39We've got some others that could pull off the upset.
32:41So our question of the day, our poll question of the day is how many upsets will there be, three
32:47or more in the NCAA tournament the first couple of rounds?
32:50Joe, it appears as though this is a dead-even vote at the moment.
32:55Yeah, I'm thinking here, Craig, that if you're anticipating and expecting a whole lot of, shall we say, underdogs to
33:04deliver in the first round, I don't see it.
33:07I think there's going to be a lot of chalk.
33:09But I would say I give it three tops in the first round, right?
33:15You've got to get from 64 to 32, right?
33:17So we've got a few opportunities on the board, I think, that are priced to go either way.
33:22Can VCU beat North Carolina?
33:25That kind of, there's injuries, like you said, with South Florida and Louisville.
33:29But to me, I think this is going to be extremely chalky.
33:33So I would be on the shorter end.
33:35If you're expecting a ton of upsets, I don't see it happening.
33:39All right.
33:39Now it's time for us to give us, give you guys our best bets going into the week.
33:44It's time for our Fade the Public.
33:53All right.
33:54So I am taking South Florida plus the points.
33:57This is like the most boring pick of the day here because I've done it like six times on the
34:01show so far.
34:03USF plus four and a half.
34:04I really do think they got it.
34:06And by the way, just to be clear here, I am in South Florida.
34:10But the University of South Florida is in Tampa.
34:13Never understood why they are USF.
34:15But either way, I am going to take the Bulls today to upset Louisville.
34:21Can't go wrong there, Craig.
34:23Despite Coach Greg Gard and Wisconsin being bounced out five consecutive times now in the first round here,
34:31I think they're going to get it done.
34:34This team can score with anybody.
34:37They have beaten the best in the country.
34:39High point is not going to be one of those upsets here.
34:43I expect Wisconsin to roll here today.
34:46All right.
34:47Prediction Market Edge coming up next.
34:48All right.
34:50Welcome back to the early line here on Sports Grid.
34:53I'm Craig Mish where it's a little rainy and warm.
34:57And Joe Ranieri is where it's cold and bitter.
34:59And hopefully his picks are a lot better than the weather in New York.
35:02But it's time now for us to take a look at the prediction markets.
35:06Certainly dive into a little bit more.
35:08And Joe, let's take a look at the markets here for Calci.
35:12And we'll dive into Polymarket as well.
35:14Prediction Market Edge.
35:15We've got Houston 97% and Idaho 3%.
35:19This is not a big surprise.
35:21And I do wonder, you know, this is probably a bigger question for you, Joe, because you do this every
35:24day and I do not.
35:25Is that with these huge spreads, we know that the prediction market percentages are also going to be so skewed
35:33here.
35:33So how do you play these on these prediction markets here, especially with the big lines?
35:39Yeah, well, I mean, listen, very much so, like anyplace else.
35:43You can dabble into team totals and ender totals for the games and those types of things.
35:50And, you know, the great thing about prediction markets, Craig, as opposed to other places that you can go,
35:56is that you don't necessarily need the actual market to come to fruition.
36:02You don't need the event to finish in order to be able to cash out because it works, just like
36:07any market where you want to buy low and you want to sell high.
36:11But in a situation like this Houston game we talked about earlier, I mean, Idaho hasn't made it to this
36:18is not a very, you know, producing a whole lot of basketball winners over the years and made it to
36:23the tournament since 1990.
36:25The spread is this spread for a reason.
36:28And although Houston is a number two seed this year to take it on a 15, there's not a lot
36:34of chance of Houston falling flat here.
36:37But I do think there is a chance of Houston scoring a lot more points and more importantly, keeping Idaho
36:45from scoring a lot of points.
36:47So if I was to approach this market, I wouldn't have a problem laying it.
36:51But I would also look at maybe some of the under totals for the Idaho team.
36:57I don't think they're scoring a whole lot of points in this game.
37:01Also, Howard will take on Michigan.
37:03Howard had to play earlier this week to get into this opportunity just to lose to Michigan coming up in
37:10a few hours here.
37:1298% on Michigan, 2% on Howard.
37:15Very skewed, obviously, toward the Wolverines.
37:17And look, you've got to give teams like this credit just for getting to this point.
37:22It's a successful season.
37:23And sometimes these teams are dangerous, Joe, because they're playing for, you know, with just sort of house money.
37:28They're not expected to be there.
37:30But it's a lot different when you're going up against a school like Michigan, who is so tremendous all season
37:34long.
37:35And had they beat Purdue, I mean, I don't know.
37:38I mean, I think that this works against Howard.
37:41The fact that Michigan lost to Purdue, I think they're going to be angry in this one.
37:45Yeah, and they are.
37:46And, again, styles make fights.
37:48And this is another one of those class warfare type of situations where Howard is the class of the MEAC.
37:56Michigan is the class of the Big Ten.
37:58There is a giant gap between those two things.
38:02I mean, congratulations, Howard.
38:04It's been a heck of a run.
38:05It is a team that concentrates a lot on turning teams over, getting the ball out of the opposing team's
38:12guards' hands, getting easy buckets in transition.
38:15They do shoot the three pretty well.
38:18But they don't score in the paint.
38:20And let's face it, anybody that's watched Michigan, you're not scoring in the paint against Michigan anyway.
38:25Their only path, I think, is early in this game, Craig, as you have to see, does the pressure bother
38:32the guards of Michigan?
38:33They can hang around for a little while, Howard, if it does.
38:37But something tells me it won't.
38:40I think Michigan's done a great job this year of blowing out the teams they're supposed to beat.
38:45This line tells you they're going to win this game.
38:49The question is, by how many?
38:51And judging from Coach Dusty May and what he has done this year, I think he had the most 20
38:56-plus point wins in the country.
38:58Something tells me he's going to have another one here.
39:01So I would not at all be opposed to looking into the Michigan team total market because I think they're
39:07going to get what they want, when they want, especially inside the paint.
39:12I think we could get another upset here in this 6-11 matchup.
39:16And it wouldn't be a major one, but as you can see, 57% North Carolina, 43% VCU on
39:21Calshi.
39:22Poly Market has it 58-43.
39:26But I don't know.
39:27I feel, Joe, is that if you took the Tar Heels name off their jersey and put another one there,
39:35I kind of feel like this would be a pick-em game here.
39:38I mean, VCU is the hotter team going into this thing.
39:41And North Carolina, yeah, they've got a couple signature wins, yes, this season.
39:44And they've beaten better teams than VCU will all season long.
39:49I mean, there's no doubt about that.
39:50But I don't know.
39:51I think VCU is catching them at the right time.
39:55Listen, the Rams went 16-1, right, this year in their last 17 games.
40:00I believe their only loss was to the Billikens, who also have a chance to pull an outright upset.
40:05And that was back in February.
40:07So, to your point, they're not going to fear North Carolina, at least this version of North Carolina.
40:13But this being the predictive markets, right, Craig?
40:16And the golden rule here is we want to buy low and sell high.
40:21If Caleb Wilson was available for this game for North Carolina, what is the spread in this game?
40:28It ain't 2.5.
40:29It's going to be likely closer to 7.5, 8.5.
40:34And that means that is one player really going to be worth that much to a North Carolina team
40:40who has nothing but backups who are four- and five-star recruits here?
40:45Let's not pretend like this is the bottom of the barrel,
40:47that the guys that are playing in place of him are not capable,
40:52especially against even a good high-end mid-major.
40:55There is still a level here that VCU doesn't have.
41:00But you know who does?
41:01North Carolina.
41:02And at 2, 2.5, you're not going to buy one of the all-time greatest programs
41:07at a better value price than you're going to against VCU.
41:12Yeah, that definitely is true.
41:13I just wonder if that's the reason why this line is 2.5.
41:17So, that concerns me a little bit.
41:18All right, I'm not concerned at all for Michigan State,
41:23especially with Izzo's success in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
41:26I mean, he's got a lot of success going deeper into the tournament
41:31when he's not supposed to.
41:32So, I guess that that's maybe more of the story here.
41:35So, I don't know what's going to happen.
41:37So, they play today?
41:38Is that correct?
41:39Do they play Thursday or Friday?
41:41I believe they play today.
41:42No, at 4 o'clock today.
41:43Yep.
41:44Okay, right.
41:44So, I'm probably concerned more for them for the weekend.
41:48But, I understand why everyone is on Michigan State here.
41:52I do.
41:54Yeah, it makes sense, right?
41:56But, again, this is one of those situations where you have one of the greatest coaches
42:00of all time who is known.
42:02You know, we learned a long time ago, Craig,
42:04you don't bet against Coach Izzo teams in the month of March.
42:08No matter how bad or inept they look in February and January and throughout the season,
42:13you don't bet against Izzo teams.
42:16Why?
42:17Because he gets his guys to play to their level no matter what happened prior to this.
42:23If you are thinking of fading them and going to North Dakota State, who shoots the three
42:28very well, the great equalizer, but that means you have to expect this Michigan State team
42:33to come out flat, which means Izzo's not doing his job.
42:37I don't see that happening.
42:38I think they suffocate North Dakota State.
42:41I think they have another gear.
42:43I think fears goes off.
42:45I think it's going to be a very easy win for Michigan State in this one.
42:49Well, cap it off.
42:50I'll lean on you for this one because, you know, honestly, when I have no opinion, I'll
42:54just tell you.
42:54I have no opinion of this game between BYU and Texas because Texas, clearly, the better
42:59team for three months.
43:01BYU, the better team for the last month.
43:03Texas wins.
43:05You know, they're riding this high now after getting that last second shot and their win.
43:09Now they got to play against the Cougars.
43:10And I know the Cougars are the better team right now.
43:13Texas may be the more talented team.
43:14So this is like a straight up coin flip for me in my bracket here, Joe.
43:19But who do you like in the game?
43:21Yeah.
43:21Well, I mean, let's face it.
43:22Outside of that win against North Carolina State, Texas hadn't won a game in a felt like
43:27a month, Craig.
43:28I mean, they were just absolutely terrible.
43:31And BYU loses its second best player, but they still have the potential number one pick
43:38in this year's NBA draft on the court.
43:40And he has no problem paying 40 minutes, unlike Darren Peterson of Kansas, who you'd be lucky
43:47to get for 13 minutes.
43:48And in a game like this, and you mentioned it, coin flip, I want the team who has the
43:53best player.
43:54And that's BYU by far, because when the game is on the line and the spread is telling you
44:00it may very well come down to the final possession or two, I want the ball in the hands of
44:05the
44:05best player on the court.
44:06And BYU has that player.
44:08And that's why I think they get it done here.
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