00:00I had to go back and watch that entire sequence again,
00:03the Furman-Virginia game from years ago,
00:07where that call came from with Stan Van and Mark Furman?
00:11No, Furman.
00:15And Kevin Harlan.
00:17He'd be covering the Masters.
00:19Yes, he would be.
00:20He's got his membership, yeah.
00:2268-66 Texas hangs on it.
00:25I do mean hangs on to beat NC State
00:28and advance to the next round of the NCAA Tournament.
00:32You also had Howard over Maryland-Baltimore County, UMBC.
00:37They're most well-known for upsetting a one seed.
00:42Bobby felt they were disrespected the other day on GBag.
00:45He was very worked up about it.
00:46I was surprised.
00:48Eric and Dawson were like, who's UMBC?
00:51And I was like, yeah, that's the 16th seed.
00:54That is the 16th seed that took down the one.
00:57Man, that's a big deal.
00:58Man, Austin-Maryland, we don't even know UMBC barely.
01:01UMES, UMBC, nobody cares.
01:04Texas now will play BYU.
01:06That game will be on Thursday.
01:08And then Howard will move on to take on Michigan in the next round
01:14or in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
01:17But Texas had a double-digit lead.
01:20They had a seven-point lead with about a minute 45 to go.
01:23And within seconds, it was down to two.
01:25I was like, oh, man, they're going to gag this one away.
01:28But Mark, with a couple of big shots down the stretch.
01:31We were going to gag it away.
01:33But now we win.
01:34We get to take on BYU.
01:35And I will be soaking that one in.
01:37I cannot wait to take that game in.
01:39Really?
01:39Yeah, it's going to be a big deal.
01:40No, this was pretty bad because they were out-rebounding.
01:43So nothing is shaking your confidence.
01:46No, no, no, no.
01:47I mean, look, there are some things that, you know,
01:50you get a good shaker in there and can ruin your confidence a little bit.
01:54But, no, just soak it all in and, you know, enjoy that game.
01:58Super happy for Dick Vitale last night.
02:01He called his first tournament game in his 46-year broadcast career.
02:04I didn't think he was calling a game.
02:06It did.
02:07That was the thing on social media, right?
02:09They spent a couple of minutes on a talk show.
02:11It was the Dick Vitale podcast.
02:13It was the Dick and Chuck show.
02:16I mean, look, they had to talk a lot because Brian Anderson lost his voice.
02:19And I don't know if he's going to call tonight's SMU-Miami game,
02:22but I hope he doesn't.
02:23Sure, but that's like, you know, like Dawson and Eric have had to talk a lot
02:29because Brian and Zach haven't been in here.
02:31So then they're like, all right, let's talk about what's going on in Iran.
02:35It's like, okay, but that's not what you're supposed to be here to talk about.
02:38What are you doing?
02:39That is not what you're supposed to be doing.
02:41So tonight it is SMU and Miami of Ohio.
02:46And the early odds on this thing, I mean, SMU opened up as a seven-and-a-half point favorite.
02:53It is down to six-and-a-half.
02:55I mean, this has got...
02:57Didn't you say Vegas is loving SMU?
02:59They are loving them because, I mean, like I said, they did put them as a seven-and-a-half
03:04point favorite,
03:04which was larger than any six-versus-eleven game.
03:10So all the six-versus-eleven seeds, which SMU would be an 11 seed.
03:14They are 11 seed, I should say.
03:15But that's bigger than any six seed is favored over an 11.
03:18AI did, in your bracket picks, AI did pick SMU.
03:22Yes.
03:22So this is 11-versus-eleven.
03:25No 6-11 game's got a bigger spread.
03:27No 7-10 game has a bigger spread.
03:29No 8-9 game has a bigger spread.
03:32Either they think Miami of Ohio stinks and doesn't belong.
03:35Like this studio.
03:36Yep.
03:37Or, well, we sprayed.
03:38We did a lot of spraying.
03:39A lot.
03:40A lot.
03:40You did half of that can.
03:42And, you know, I do think this is the...
03:44It is a great question of whether the Febreze spray helps or hurts.
03:50It makes the smell worse.
03:51There definitely is some sewage leak happening specifically for this room.
03:56It's a bell curve, right?
03:57Like you spray and it's like smells better, smells better.
04:00Oh, now you've sprayed so much that this is not smelling good now.
04:02I would like to do the show from Corinth Firehouse tomorrow and Friday to get out of this versus just
04:08Friday.
04:09This is very, very bad.
04:10But, so either they think Miami's not any good or SMU is massively under-seeded, which, and I mentioned yesterday
04:17that Evan Mayakawa's website, he has SMU as one of the more under-seeded teams in the tournament.
04:24They're a much better team and they had some injuries down the stretch, which caused them probably to drop.
04:32But SMU is favored over Miami by about the average 5-12 matchup.
04:37So, keep that in mind when you're going to place a wager tonight, if you are.
04:42SMU minus 6.5 might be the way to go here on Sean and RJ on 105.3 The Fan.
04:50Now, what's happened the last four years of the NCAA tournament when it comes to betting?
04:54Shall we?
04:56Top three...
04:56Keep going up.
04:57What's that?
04:57Keep going up, the money bet?
05:00Well, kind of.
05:01So, we had a lot more blowouts last year, but I found this stat, and I find this to be...
05:07This is...
05:08I thought...
05:08This is amazing.
05:09Top three seeds.
05:11So, your 4-1s, your 4-2s, your 4-3s.
05:14Playing on more than four days rest.
05:17So, these are teams that didn't make their conference championship game.
05:20I'm going to have to go and redo my bracket now.
05:21Oh, no.
05:22This is just for betting.
05:23Playing on more than four days rest.
05:25So, maybe you don't make your conference tournament game or you get the Friday game.
05:28All right.
05:30More than four days rest and a game total under 148.
05:34That means the over-under is below 148.
05:38Are 23-5 against the spread in those four years.
05:43So, if you find a 1-2 or 3 seed that has more than four days rest and a total
05:50of the game under 148, blindly bet them.
05:53So, what about 149?
05:55Do not...
05:56It doesn't apply.
05:57Don't do it.
05:58It doesn't apply.
05:58I want to give a shout-out to Tolo David Colt Strong on Twitter.
06:03He wrote down all of your notes yesterday that was kind of just like what you gave.
06:08Fed them to Chad GPT.
06:10Came out with two different brackets based upon all of RJ Choppy's data.
06:15Safe bracket and a chaos one.
06:17Props to you, David.
06:19All right.
06:19It was good work.
06:20Chaos bracket was a little unrealistic.
06:22I think it threw St. Louis in the final fours.
06:24Oh, God.
06:25So, is his safe one exactly like mine?
06:27No.
06:27Should be, right?
06:28It's a little different.
06:29Because I put in there...
06:31He must have used Gemini.
06:32I put in all the Ken...
06:33I did use Gemini.
06:34I put in all the Ken Palm data and I put in just a bunch of different stuff and it
06:38kicked
06:38it out.
06:39So, I sent Bobby my $35 as he GPT'd my bracket based upon Choppy's info.
06:45All right.
06:46I did also nerf it a little and I didn't tell you that.
06:49You know that little capsule thing?
06:51The ESPN capsule I sent yesterday in the email that had a capsule for every team?
06:56No.
06:57Did you read the email?
06:58Yeah.
06:58Okay.
06:59There was the NCAA capsule at the end of a breakdown of every single team.
07:03It's like a quick thing.
07:04So, I copied and I pasted that in as another piece of information.
07:08I said, don't take the analysis seriously.
07:09Just use this for reference on which teams finish the season strong, which teams are out.
07:14So, because, like, for instance, it's not overrating Texas Tech because it knows that
07:18Toppin's out now.
07:19Oh.
07:19And so, if it just blindly looked at the data, it may look at Tech and be like, fine.
07:23So, yours does take into account some of the injury stuff that wouldn't be included
07:27now.
07:27What about weed?
07:28No.
07:29Well, no.
07:29Is it weed adjusted?
07:30No, it does.
07:31No.
07:31For instance, Gemini right here.
07:33Bama's defensive floor.
07:33Alabama's still the favorite over Hofstra, but the combination of the Aiden Holloway arrest
07:37and their number one 12-ranked defense gives Hofstra a nearly 30% chance to pull off the
07:40upset.
07:41Wow.
07:41That's high for 13 or 14.
07:4330%.
07:44They're saying that there's some defensive net rating questions in the Aiden Holloway thing.
07:47Okay.
07:48Pepe says the app is working now.
07:50Hey!
07:52Thank you to everyone who hopped on over to YouTube.
07:55Let's see how much this number drops and people have to go to the Odyssey app, which is
07:59fine.
07:59However you're consuming it.
08:00Fan cam.
08:01Twitch.
08:01YouTube.
08:02I'm an Odyssey guy myself.
08:03I would maybe prefer the Odyssey app.
08:06So I mentioned those top three seeds, four days to wrestle, 148 total, 23-5 ATS.
08:11These are those teams this week.
08:13Duke, Houston, Virginia, Michigan State, UConn.
08:16Those are your five.
08:18Those are the five teams.
08:19I don't care what the number is.
08:22I, personally, the degenerate, am blindly going to place a wager on them because they fall
08:27into the 23-5 against the spread.
08:29But it's not just those teams.
08:31If you blindly just bet the top four seeds, all 16 of them against the spread, you have
08:35won 61% of your games over the last four years, blindly.
08:39You don't care what their speed number is.
08:41You just place a bet, 61%.
08:43They're 39-25 against the spread.
08:46So, basically, you just take a win and you lay the hammer down when it comes to the ones
08:50that I mentioned, those five on top.
08:52There is one sleeper Final Four team.
08:58St. Mary's.
08:59Maybe that was the team that he had and there was St. Mary's in the chaos break.
09:02It was St. something.
09:03Is that who Jared mentioned or was it St. John's?
09:07He may have mentioned Santa Clara.
09:08Did he mention Santa Clara?
09:09He mentioned Santa Clara as an upset.
09:11Did not say them as a Final Four team.
09:12So, St. Mary's.
09:14First of all, they lead the nation in free throw percentage, which means that's free points.
09:17But also, if they get a lead on you, you're not coming back on them, right?
09:22Because they're going to be making their free throws.
09:23They make over 80% of their free throws.
09:25They're also top 15 in three-point shooting.
09:29Their overall team defense and rebounding also is top 15.
09:34All those are metrics that you look for in a sleeper run.
09:36The problem is they got a tough draw.
09:38A&M is very, very difficult to match up with because they press and they shoot threes at a high
09:44rate.
09:44So, if they're making their threes, it's going to be tough for St. Mary's to win.
09:48But St. Mary's does a lot of things, right, that you look for in one of these sleepers.
09:52But at 55-1 to make the Final Four, that's worth my $10.
09:57Gemini disagrees with you on St. Mary's being the seventh seed with the best shot to make the Final Four.
10:01They're saying UCLA.
10:03You like UCLA.
10:04They say historically seven seeds that are efficient shooting have a stronger likelihood of reaching the second weekend.
10:11And they also said the path they face against an overseeded UFC team and a UConn squad that is limping
10:15into the tournament with chemistry issues
10:17and a high turnover rate gives UCLA a strong shot to make a run.
10:21I'm just waiting for the next Mick Cronin press conference.
10:25What is the status of everybody's bracket?
10:28Are you ready to turn it into choppy for tomorrow morning?
10:31Pei-Pi, let's start with you.
10:33I have not made any changes since I first filled out the bracket Monday morning.
10:38I've thought about it.
10:39I've thought about the championship, maybe some Final Four switches around.
10:41But I think I'm just going to say, you know what, screw it.
10:43I'm going to turn it in.
10:44Bobby, by far, has been the most confident in here.
10:47I mean, he's walking around like he's already won this thing.
10:50And choppy, you have been the most disoriented.
10:53I am very disoriented.
10:55I've got a bracket.
10:56How many pieces of paper?
10:57Well, this is.
10:58There was one.
10:59That's two.
10:59Well, this is my cheat sheet.
11:00Those are the notes.
11:01And this is my cut sheet.
11:03So have you made a bracket for the show?
11:06I've got one here made.
11:07I don't love it.
11:08I'm going to make a couple of more tinkers.
11:10Is that the one you made initially?
11:12Yeah.
11:12I'm going to show you his bracket and my bracket during the break.
11:15And you're going to see we will definitely have a loser early if he uses that one.
11:19Because my picks and his picks are so radically different.
11:22I'm either going to win or lose.
11:23Are you just having a hard time with your Tennessee fandom?
11:26That's my theory.
11:27That's causing you all this.
11:28Honestly, no.
11:29Because I know we are capped.
11:30I either have them losing in the second round or the third round.
11:33I know they're capped.
11:34He has one of Peyton's region winners out in the first round.
11:40So this is my Elite Eight Final Four winner.
11:43Now, this is just based on RJ's info from yesterday.
11:47720 Expressway, if you need to relive it.
11:49And Bobby put it in for me.
11:51I Venmo'd him $35.
11:52Duke, UConn, Florida, Houston, Arizona, Purdue, Michigan, Tennessee.
12:03Then it goes down to Michigan, Arizona with Michigan advancing to the championship.
12:08Duke, Houston, with Duke advancing to the championship.
12:10And Duke beating Michigan.
12:11So that is my bracket as I'm handing it over to you.
12:14All right.
12:14Are we trusting Chompy to – who does the math?
12:17And I run the spreadsheet where we do – it auto-deduct points.
12:22So what I'm going to do is I'm going to scan these.
12:24Yeah.
12:25And I'll text them to the group.
12:30So I'm not far off from you.
12:32You know, my Final Four or my Elite Eight is right now Duke, Michigan State, Florida, Houston, Arkansas.
12:37I got Arkansas, BYU.
12:38So it's different there.
12:40And then Michigan, Tennessee.
12:41So what has been your biggest struggle with your back and forth?
12:45Arkansas?
12:45Arkansas.
12:47Arkansas.
12:47You don't believe in the Mavs, do?
12:48Point guard.
12:49I do.
12:49I love them.
12:50I just – you know, I feel like they're the trap this year.
12:54Okay.
12:54I feel like we all love them.
12:55They just ran through the conference.
12:57Eight cup we love.
12:59And I just feel like I'm falling into a trap.
13:01I have three teams in the Elite Eight that are not a one or two seed.
13:05See, I like that.
13:06I don't want to – I asked the first question to Bobby.
13:08I was like, how chalky was.
13:09I don't want chalky.
13:11I don't feel good winning that way.
13:12It's a little chalky, but it's not – like, based on what –
13:14There's some crazy early upsets.
13:16Based on what Choppy's, like, metric said, he said, like, yeah,
13:21you've got one seed that's outside the one or the two in the Elite Eight
13:24and one that gets to the final four that's not a one seed.
13:26That's about what Choppy's data said.
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