- 4 hours ago
RJ Choppy breaks down the chaos of March Madness, starting with Texas barely hanging on and key matchups to watch. He also dove into betting trends, including top seeds against the spread, while highlighting sleeper teams and the toughest decisions that could make or break your bracket.
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00I had to go back and watch that entire sequence again,
00:03the Furman-Virginia game from years ago,
00:07where that call came from with Stan Van and Mark Furman?
00:11No, Furman.
00:15And Kevin Harlan.
00:17He'd be covering the Masters.
00:19Yes, he would be.
00:20He's got his membership, yeah.
00:2268-66 Texas hangs on it.
00:25I do mean hangs on to beat NC State
00:28and advance to the next round of the NCAA Tournament.
00:32You also had Howard over Maryland-Baltimore County, UMBC.
00:37They're most well-known for upsetting a one seed.
00:42Bobby felt they were disrespected the other day on GBag.
00:45He was very worked up about it.
00:46I was surprised.
00:48Eric and Dawson were like, who's UMBC?
00:51And I was like, yeah, that's the 16th seed.
00:54That is the 16th seed that took down the one.
00:57Man, that's a big deal.
00:58Man, Austin-Maryland, we don't even know UMBC barely.
01:01UMES, UMBC, nobody cares.
01:04Texas now will play BYU.
01:06That game will be on Thursday.
01:08And then Howard will move on to take on Michigan in the next round
01:14or in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
01:17But Texas had a double-digit lead.
01:20They had a seven-point lead with about a minute 45 to go.
01:23And within seconds, it was down to two.
01:25I was like, oh, man, they're going to gag this one away.
01:28But Mark, with a couple of big shots down the stretch.
01:31We were going to gag it away.
01:33But now we win.
01:34We get to take on BYU.
01:35And I will be soaking that one in.
01:37I cannot wait to take that game in.
01:39Really?
01:39Yeah, it's going to be a big deal.
01:40No, this was pretty bad because they were out-rebounding.
01:43So nothing is shaking your confidence.
01:46No, no, no, no.
01:47I mean, look, there are some things that, you know,
01:50you get a good shaker in there and can ruin your confidence a little bit.
01:54But, no, just soak it all in and, you know, enjoy that game.
01:58Super happy for Dick Vitale last night.
02:01He called his first tournament game in his 46-year broadcast career.
02:04I didn't think he was calling a game.
02:06It did.
02:07That was the thing on social media, right?
02:09They spent a couple of minutes on a talk show.
02:11It was the Dick Vitale podcast.
02:13It was the Dick and Chuck show.
02:16I mean, look, they had to talk a lot because Brian Anderson lost his voice.
02:19And I don't know if he's going to call tonight's SMU-Miami game,
02:22but I hope he doesn't.
02:23Sure, but that's like, you know, like Dawson and Eric have had to talk a lot
02:29because Brian and Zach haven't been in here.
02:31So then they're like, all right, let's talk about what's going on in Iran.
02:35It's like, okay, but that's not what you're supposed to be here to talk about.
02:38What are you doing?
02:39That is not what you're supposed to be doing.
02:41So tonight it is SMU and Miami of Ohio.
02:46And the early odds on this thing, I mean, SMU opened up as a seven-and-a-half point favorite.
02:53It is down to six-and-a-half.
02:55I mean, this has got...
02:57Didn't you say Vegas is loving SMU?
02:59They are loving them because, I mean, like I said, they did put them as a seven-and-a-half
03:04point favorite,
03:04which was larger than any six-versus-eleven game.
03:10So all the six-versus-eleven seeds, which SMU would be an 11 seed.
03:14They are 11 seed, I should say.
03:15But that's bigger than any six seed is favored over an 11.
03:18AI did, in your bracket picks, AI did pick SMU.
03:22Yes.
03:22So this is 11-versus-eleven.
03:25No 6-11 game's got a bigger spread.
03:27No 7-10 game has a bigger spread.
03:29No 8-9 game has a bigger spread.
03:32Either they think Miami of Ohio stinks and doesn't belong.
03:35Like this studio.
03:36Yep.
03:37Or, well, we sprayed.
03:38We did a lot of spraying.
03:39A lot.
03:40A lot.
03:40You did half of that can.
03:42And, you know, I do think this is the...
03:44It is a great question of whether the Febreze spray helps or hurts.
03:50It makes the smell worse.
03:51There definitely is some sewage leak happening specifically for this room.
03:56It's a bell curve, right?
03:57Like you spray and it's like smells better, smells better.
04:00Oh, now you've sprayed so much that this is not smelling good now.
04:02I would like to do the show from Corinth Firehouse tomorrow and Friday to get out of this versus just
04:08Friday.
04:09This is very, very bad.
04:10But, so either they think Miami's not any good or SMU is massively under-seeded, which, and I mentioned yesterday
04:17that Evan Mayakawa's website, he has SMU as one of the more under-seeded teams in the tournament.
04:24They're a much better team and they had some injuries down the stretch, which caused them probably to drop.
04:32But SMU is favored over Miami by about the average 5-12 matchup.
04:37So, keep that in mind when you're going to place a wager tonight, if you are.
04:42SMU minus 6.5 might be the way to go here on Sean and RJ on 105.3 The Fan.
04:50Now, what's happened the last four years of the NCAA tournament when it comes to betting?
04:54Shall we?
04:56Top three...
04:56Keep going up.
04:57What's that?
04:57Keep going up, the money bet?
05:00Well, kind of.
05:01So, we had a lot more blowouts last year, but I found this stat, and I find this to be...
05:07This is...
05:08I thought...
05:08This is amazing.
05:09Top three seeds.
05:11So, your 4-1s, your 4-2s, your 4-3s.
05:14Playing on more than four days rest.
05:17So, these are teams that didn't make their conference championship game.
05:20I'm going to have to go and redo my bracket now.
05:21Oh, no.
05:22This is just for betting.
05:23Playing on more than four days rest.
05:25So, maybe you don't make your conference tournament game or you get the Friday game.
05:28All right.
05:30More than four days rest and a game total under 148.
05:34That means the over-under is below 148.
05:38Are 23-5 against the spread in those four years.
05:43So, if you find a 1-2 or 3 seed that has more than four days rest and a total
05:50of the game under 148, blindly bet them.
05:53So, what about 149?
05:55Do not...
05:56It doesn't apply.
05:57Don't do it.
05:58It doesn't apply.
05:58I want to give a shout-out to Tolo David Colt Strong on Twitter.
06:03He wrote down all of your notes yesterday that was kind of just like what you gave.
06:08Fed them to Chad GPT.
06:10Came out with two different brackets based upon all of RJ Choppy's data.
06:15Safe bracket and a chaos one.
06:17Props to you, David.
06:19All right.
06:19It was good work.
06:20Chaos bracket was a little unrealistic.
06:22I think it threw St. Louis in the final fours.
06:24Oh, God.
06:25So, is his safe one exactly like mine?
06:27No.
06:27Should be, right?
06:28It's a little different.
06:29Because I put in there...
06:31He must have used Gemini.
06:32I put in all the Ken...
06:33I did use Gemini.
06:34I put in all the Ken Palm data and I put in just a bunch of different stuff and it
06:38kicked
06:38it out.
06:39So, I sent Bobby my $35 as he GPT'd my bracket based upon Choppy's info.
06:45All right.
06:46I did also nerf it a little and I didn't tell you that.
06:49You know that little capsule thing?
06:51The ESPN capsule I sent yesterday in the email that had a capsule for every team?
06:56No.
06:57Did you read the email?
06:58Yeah.
06:58Okay.
06:59There was the NCAA capsule at the end of a breakdown of every single team.
07:03It's like a quick thing.
07:04So, I copied and I pasted that in as another piece of information.
07:08I said, don't take the analysis seriously.
07:09Just use this for reference on which teams finish the season strong, which teams are out.
07:14So, because, like, for instance, it's not overrating Texas Tech because it knows that
07:18Toppin's out now.
07:19Oh.
07:19And so, if it just blindly looked at the data, it may look at Tech and be like, fine.
07:23So, yours does take into account some of the injury stuff that wouldn't be included
07:27now.
07:27What about weed?
07:28No.
07:29Well, no.
07:29Is it weed adjusted?
07:30No, it does.
07:31No.
07:31For instance, Gemini right here.
07:33Bama's defensive floor.
07:33Alabama's still the favorite over Hofstra, but the combination of the Aiden Holloway arrest
07:37and their number one 12-ranked defense gives Hofstra a nearly 30% chance to pull off the
07:40upset.
07:41Wow.
07:41That's high for 13 or 14.
07:4330%.
07:44They're saying that there's some defensive net rating questions in the Aiden Holloway thing.
07:47Okay.
07:48Pepe says the app is working now.
07:50Hey!
07:52Thank you to everyone who hopped on over to YouTube.
07:55Let's see how much this number drops and people have to go to the Odyssey app, which is
07:59fine.
07:59However you're consuming it.
08:00Fan cam.
08:01Twitch.
08:01YouTube.
08:02I'm an Odyssey guy myself.
08:03I would maybe prefer the Odyssey app.
08:06So I mentioned those top three seeds, four days to wrestle, 148 total, 23-5 ATS.
08:11These are those teams this week.
08:13Duke, Houston, Virginia, Michigan State, UConn.
08:16Those are your five.
08:18Those are the five teams.
08:19I don't care what the number is.
08:22I, personally, the degenerate, am blindly going to place a wager on them because they fall
08:27into the 23-5 against the spread.
08:29But it's not just those teams.
08:31If you blindly just bet the top four seeds, all 16 of them against the spread, you have
08:35won 61% of your games over the last four years, blindly.
08:39You don't care what their speed number is.
08:41You just place a bet, 61%.
08:43They're 39-25 against the spread.
08:46So, basically, you just take a win and you lay the hammer down when it comes to the ones
08:50that I mentioned, those five on top.
08:52There is one sleeper Final Four team.
08:58St. Mary's.
08:59Maybe that was the team that he had and there was St. Mary's in the chaos break.
09:02It was St. something.
09:03Is that who Jared mentioned or was it St. John's?
09:07He may have mentioned Santa Clara.
09:08Did he mention Santa Clara?
09:09He mentioned Santa Clara as an upset.
09:11Did not say them as a Final Four team.
09:12So, St. Mary's.
09:14First of all, they lead the nation in free throw percentage, which means that's free points.
09:17But also, if they get a lead on you, you're not coming back on them, right?
09:22Because they're going to be making their free throws.
09:23They make over 80% of their free throws.
09:25They're also top 15 in three-point shooting.
09:29Their overall team defense and rebounding also is top 15.
09:34All those are metrics that you look for in a sleeper run.
09:36The problem is they got a tough draw.
09:38A&M is very, very difficult to match up with because they press and they shoot threes at a high
09:44rate.
09:44So, if they're making their threes, it's going to be tough for St. Mary's to win.
09:48But St. Mary's does a lot of things, right, that you look for in one of these sleepers.
09:52But at 55-1 to make the Final Four, that's worth my $10.
09:57Gemini disagrees with you on St. Mary's being the seventh seed with the best shot to make the Final Four.
10:01They're saying UCLA.
10:03You like UCLA.
10:04They say historically seven seeds that are efficient shooting have a stronger likelihood of reaching the second weekend.
10:11And they also said the path they face against an overseeded UFC team and a UConn squad that is limping
10:15into the tournament with chemistry issues
10:17and a high turnover rate gives UCLA a strong shot to make a run.
10:21I'm just waiting for the next Mick Cronin press conference.
10:25What is the status of everybody's bracket?
10:28Are you ready to turn it into choppy for tomorrow morning?
10:31Pei-Pi, let's start with you.
10:33I have not made any changes since I first filled out the bracket Monday morning.
10:38I've thought about it.
10:39I've thought about the championship, maybe some Final Four switches around.
10:41But I think I'm just going to say, you know what, screw it.
10:43I'm going to turn it in.
10:44Bobby, by far, has been the most confident in here.
10:47I mean, he's walking around like he's already won this thing.
10:50And choppy, you have been the most disoriented.
10:53I am very disoriented.
10:55I've got a bracket.
10:56How many pieces of paper?
10:57Well, this is.
10:58There was one.
10:59That's two.
10:59Well, this is my cheat sheet.
11:00Those are the notes.
11:01And this is my cut sheet.
11:03So have you made a bracket for the show?
11:06I've got one here made.
11:07I don't love it.
11:08I'm going to make a couple of more tinkers.
11:10Is that the one you made initially?
11:12Yeah.
11:12I'm going to show you his bracket and my bracket during the break.
11:15And you're going to see we will definitely have a loser early if he uses that one.
11:19Because my picks and his picks are so radically different.
11:22I'm either going to win or lose.
11:23Are you just having a hard time with your Tennessee fandom?
11:26That's my theory.
11:27That's causing you all this.
11:28Honestly, no.
11:29Because I know we are capped.
11:30I either have them losing in the second round or the third round.
11:33I know they're capped.
11:34He has one of Peyton's region winners out in the first round.
11:40So this is my Elite Eight Final Four winner.
11:43Now, this is just based on RJ's info from yesterday.
11:47720 Expressway, if you need to relive it.
11:49And Bobby put it in for me.
11:51I Venmo'd him $35.
11:52Duke, UConn, Florida, Houston, Arizona, Purdue, Michigan, Tennessee.
12:03Then it goes down to Michigan, Arizona with Michigan advancing to the championship.
12:08Duke, Houston, with Duke advancing to the championship.
12:10And Duke beating Michigan.
12:11So that is my bracket as I'm handing it over to you.
12:14All right.
12:14Are we trusting Chompy to – who does the math?
12:17And I run the spreadsheet where we do – it auto-deduct points.
12:22So what I'm going to do is I'm going to scan these.
12:24Yeah.
12:25And I'll text them to the group.
12:30So I'm not far off from you.
12:32You know, my Final Four or my Elite Eight is right now Duke, Michigan State, Florida, Houston, Arkansas.
12:37I got Arkansas, BYU.
12:38So it's different there.
12:40And then Michigan, Tennessee.
12:41So what has been your biggest struggle with your back and forth?
12:45Arkansas?
12:45Arkansas.
12:47Arkansas.
12:47You don't believe in the Mavs, do?
12:48Point guard.
12:49I do.
12:49I love them.
12:50I just – you know, I feel like they're the trap this year.
12:54Okay.
12:54I feel like we all love them.
12:55They just ran through the conference.
12:57Eight cup we love.
12:59And I just feel like I'm falling into a trap.
13:01I have three teams in the Elite Eight that are not a one or two seed.
13:05See, I like that.
13:06I don't want to – I asked the first question to Bobby.
13:08I was like, how chalky was.
13:09I don't want chalky.
13:11I don't feel good winning that way.
13:12It's a little chalky, but it's not – like, based on what –
13:14There's some crazy early upsets.
13:16Based on what Choppy's, like, metric said, he said, like, yeah,
13:21you've got one seed that's outside the one or the two in the Elite Eight
13:24and one that gets to the final four that's not a one seed.
13:26That's about what Choppy's data said.
Comments