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Having trouble filling out your bracket? Never fear, RJ Choppy is here with all of the tips and tricks you’ll need to know when it comes to picking a winning bracket in this year's March Madness tournament!
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00:00Oh, every single year, I have one.
00:03Close that door.
00:04I have one email that really made, it's not even an email.
00:08It's all a piece of paper.
00:09Bobby had to go apologize to KRLDAM.
00:13RJ Choppy is ready and hype.
00:15That really gets Sean Sharif giddy.
00:17And that is this one.
00:18I'm going to sit down.
00:19I was going to say, you never sit.
00:20This is throwing off my feng shui.
00:23Well, look, you know, I have to reinvent myself about every couple of years.
00:27And I think now I'm sitting.
00:28I'm a sitter.
00:30I said, why stand when you can sit?
00:31But, you know, there you go.
00:33That's it.
00:33All right.
00:34So this is to help you fill out your bracket.
00:38This is the trends over the last.
00:40I mean, some of them are over the last 24 years.
00:42Some of them go all the way back to 1985.
00:44These are the trends that you have to paralyze yourself with when filling out your bracket.
00:49So ultimately you lose like I do.
00:51I'm going to follow absolutely none of these trends.
00:54I am going all in.
00:55Now, why don't you follow them?
00:58All you do during the NFL season is base your power rankings off of analytics like this.
01:04So when it comes to college basketball and something actually on the line, you ignore it.
01:09I think my thought process here, I'm just going to guess what my thought process is, is that it's such
01:17a random event I have to predict for the unpredictable.
01:21What if he's trying to throw us off with fake trends so that he wins the bracket?
01:25Because then he's not going to follow it.
01:27That's never worked.
01:28Yeah.
01:29Never.
01:30That's why this year, ton of upsets.
01:32I'm going all in.
01:33I'm either going to win or I'm going to go down in a blaze of glory.
01:36This is really throwing me off seed, you said.
01:38I can't get over it.
01:40All right.
01:41So let's just get right to it.
01:42Top seeds.
01:44First, don't get cute.
01:4635 of the last 40 champs were one, two or three seeds.
01:49Okay.
01:5126 of the 35 have been one seeds, including Florida last year, seven of the last eight.
01:56Number one seeds have won 14 of the last 18.
01:58All right.
01:59So 35 of the last 40 champs were what?
02:0235 of the last 40.
02:03One, two or three seeds.
02:04Okay.
02:05If you don't want to pick a number one seed, just don't automatically go with the two seed.
02:10Sure.
02:10Two seeds have won the second most title since 1985, but only five times.
02:15That happened.
02:16The other non-number one seeds have won nine times that same span, right?
02:21That same span.
02:23They've won nine times.
02:24The other, which ones?
02:25If it's not a two.
02:27If it's not a two, it's been obviously a three, but then you also have fours and fives and stuff
02:32like that.
02:32All right.
02:33So, yeah, if you're going to pick a non-number one, individually a two is the most likely to happen,
02:40but threes, fours, five, six, seven, eight, nines have won double the amount of times that a two seed has.
02:45Got it.
02:46Okay.
02:46So.
02:47The field.
02:47The field.
02:48The field.
02:49Higher seeds win.
02:50Peyton Russell.
02:52Nice.
02:52Since 2002, if you just go to the website, thepowerranked.com, and blindly pick the teams based off who is
02:58ranked higher,
02:59you will win 70% of your games.
03:02Blind.
03:02That ranking system is based off margin of victory, which is the same as point differential, and that kind of
03:07plays there.
03:08So, let's get to the bracket.
03:10Since 1985, one seeds are 158-2, two seeds are 149-11, three seeds 137-23, and four seeds 127
03:24-33.
03:25Don't be stupid.
03:26You know, don't be stupid at picking a 15 to beat a two, or a 60 to beat a two.
03:32If you want to pick a 13 to beat a four, or a 14 to beat a three, I mean,
03:38do that.
03:38Best of luck to you.
03:40Number one seeds last year won their games by an average of 32 points.
03:46Oh!
03:47Two seeds won by an average of 20.
03:49The closest was nine.
03:51One and a half, 12 seeds over fives per year.
03:55One and a half.
03:57In every bracket, you're going to have one and a half, 12 seeds beat a five seed.
04:04You have to pick, the way I interpret it, I have to pick at least one 12 over five.
04:09At least one.
04:11Last year, we had two.
04:12Two of them beat a five.
04:15You also need, the new 5-12 has become the 6-11.
04:19You're also going to need 1.6 11 seeds over a six seed.
04:24Okay.
04:25And you're going to need 1.6 10 seeds over a seven.
04:30Okay.
04:31They don't consider a 9-8 to be an upset.
04:34However, if you want the numbers, nine seeds win more than 50% of the time.
04:39Oh!
04:40I heard that note yesterday.
04:42That just seems like it's a total coin flip when they put them up there.
04:44It's 2.19 seeds per tournament.
04:48Sweet 16.
04:49One seeds make your sweet 16 85% of the time.
04:53Yeah, you want to have the one seed get knocked out by an 8 or a 9.
04:57I mean, it certainly happens.
04:5815% is not a 0% chance, but it's not likely.
05:03Two seeds losing, much more likely.
05:05It's only 63% of two seeds make a sweet 16.
05:08Oh!
05:09So, it's only 6 out of 10.
05:11Three seeds are basically 50-50 at 53%.
05:14Four seeds are at 47%.
05:16So, less than half of four seeds make the sweet 16.
05:21Say the three seeds again.
05:22Is that...
05:23That's not 50-50.
05:24That's 53.
05:25So, it's basically 50-50.
05:26Okay.
05:27Right?
05:27To make the sweet 16.
05:28To make the sweet 16.
05:29And four seed is what?
05:3147%.
05:31Okay.
05:31So, three seeds would lose theoretically to the six and the four seed theoretically to
05:35the five.
05:36Upsets.
05:38You've got to have about eight and a half upsets per year.
05:41Not counting eight and nines.
05:43Not counting eight and nine.
05:44Right?
05:45Last year, the average is 4.7 in the first round.
05:49Last year, we had five.
05:51But, just three of them were non-9 or 10 seeds.
05:56Right?
05:5610 seeds, I should say.
05:57So, now, in nine of the last 14 tournaments, we've had more than 10 upsets total.
06:05Last year, we had nine.
06:07And on average, you said you should have eight?
06:08Eight and a half.
06:09Eight and a half.
06:10Eight and a half on average.
06:11Not including the 8-9 game.
06:15Now, most of your upsets come in round one.
06:18Most of them come in round one.
06:19Again, last year, we had five.
06:21The average is 4.7.
06:23The second round average is three upsets per tournament.
06:26And then after that, the Sweet 16, .25.
06:31So, if you get a three, if you get a three, a two-three and a one-four, the three
06:37never
06:37beats the two.
06:38The four never beats the one.
06:40I mean, you're talking about less than one per tournament.
06:43Less than a half per tournament.
06:45The four never beats the one.
06:47Never beats the one.
06:48The most we've ever had.
06:49The most upsets a Sweet 16 has ever had in the history of the tournament is one.
06:55Four never beats the one, and what was your two and three?
06:57The three never beats the two.
06:59Three never beats the two.
06:59Right?
06:59It's like, it never happens.
07:01The most we've ever had is one upset in the Sweet 16 in any tournament.
07:06What?
07:06That's it?
07:07That's it.
07:07That's it.
07:08It's the most ever.
07:08Since 2011, at least one seven seed has made the final four.
07:15Since 2011, at least one seven?
07:19Seven seed has made the final four every year, except for two, and that includes last year.
07:26Last year, we did not have a seven seed.
07:28Wow.
07:28Last year was Chucky.
07:31A lot of people say it's going to continue to get that way with NIL.
07:34Yeah.
07:34So I got UCLA, St. Mary's, Miami, and Kentucky as my sevens.
07:44One of them, the numbers say, will make the final four.
07:48Yeah.
07:49The numbers say one of them will.
07:51Since 2011, at least one seven seed.
07:53That's the ballsy thing.
07:54Like, if you hit on that, you're good to go, but you've got to hit the one out of four
08:00and then deprive yourself of a Chucky final four.
08:04Yep.
08:0526 of the last 40 champs have been one seeds.
08:07Okay?
08:08Now, let's go to Ken Palm.
08:10Bobby has discovered Ken Palm.
08:11I feel like I've opened up a very...
08:16I'm scared now.
08:17I'm actually scared because Bobby is going to wreck shop on this thing now that he's discovered.
08:21I don't even want to tell about Bart Torvik.
08:23I'm telling you about that thing.
08:25You don't tell him what's going to happen.
08:26What was your Ken Palm initiation, Bobby?
08:28He's referenced it enough times over the years, and even, like, Dan Hurley and others have referenced it.
08:33And this is a person?
08:34Ken Pomeroy.
08:35He's got a website called KenPalm.com.
08:37He just was ahead of the game on some basketball analytics about 20 years ago.
08:41And so net rating, which a lot of people use in basketball today,
08:45he has basically just had net rating standings,
08:48and he's got a couple other different factors in their luck factor and strength of schedule net rating.
08:52And he tries to just basically turn it all into one Formula One score.
08:56And usually it's...
08:57Yeah.
08:58Like, if you look at it right now, the tournament seeding is pretty close to in the order that he
09:03has the teams listed.
09:04Yeah.
09:04It's Ken Palm.
09:05It's Bart Torvik.
09:06It's Evan Mayakawa and CBB Analytics.
09:09Those are the four kind of ones that you look at when it comes to try to pick your upsets.
09:15So, Ken Palm.
09:16Every year since 2002, the champ has been a top 25 defense and a top 40 offense.
09:25Not or, but and.
09:27Per Ken Palm.
09:28Every year since 2002.
09:30I think there's one year where, like, it was the Shabazz Napier UConn team that came out of nowhere and
09:37won.
09:38Right?
09:38And there was the Syracuse team that came out of nowhere and won with Carmelo.
09:42But, I mean, look at that.
09:43That team had, you know, a few NBA players on it.
09:47So, this year, the teams that fit that Ken Palm criteria.
09:51Listen up, guys.
09:52This is where it really gets good.
09:54This is where your champ is going to come from.
09:55Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida, Houston, Iowa State, Michigan State, the Zags, UConn, Virginia, Tennessee, and Louisville.
10:16It's 12 teams.
10:18It's 12 teams.
10:19So, Tennessee was under-seeded.
10:21Uh, probably.
10:23But they lost a lot of the games.
10:24We also have this West Coast stat, right?
10:27Right.
10:27No team from the Pacific Time Zone has won a title since 97.
10:32Uh, now, it's, you know, if you look at the last 25 years, 24 of the last 25 have been
10:44top 21 offense and top 31 defense.
10:47So, you want to shrink it down even more, you can eliminate a bunch of teams out of that.
10:52And now it's just Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida, Houston, Iowa State, Illinois, Vandy, and Louisville.
10:59Iowa State.
11:01Illinois, Vandy, and Louisville.
11:04That's if you break it down even further.
11:06But you didn't name Vandy in the first group.
11:08Or Illinois.
11:09Or Illinois.
11:10Uh, pretty sure I did.
11:12No, you didn't.
11:13You know, I wrote down every one you're saying.
11:15Oh, gosh.
11:16Here we go.
11:17Where's the creatine?
11:19Oh, oh.
11:20Because that's, that's top 31, uh, 21 defense.
11:27That's top 21 defense in this one.
11:29So, it's just broken down a little bit differently.
11:31So, there you go.
11:32Those are some of the teams.
11:33So, I can hone in on Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida, Houston, Iowa State, Vandy, and Illinois.
11:40Yes, you can hone in on that.
11:41Now, is Arizona considered Pacific time zone?
11:43Because, technically, right now, they don't believe in daylight savings.
11:45So, they're two hours.
11:46Because that could screw up the whole bracket.
11:48They're in the Pacific time zone right now, though, right?
11:50Oh, see?
11:51See?
11:51Come bracket time.
11:52There we go.
11:53So, no Arizona.
11:54My entire final four is in your list of teams right there.
11:57Good for you.
11:57Don't make fun of Peyton, then.
11:59I know.
12:00Mine's not chalky.
12:01I have two of my final four teams are not number one seeds.
12:0521 of the last 25 Sweet 16 teams have been top 25 offense and defense almost every year.
12:12Every year.
12:13So, you have to have, in your Sweet 16, Duke, Michigan.
12:18I mean, it's the same team.
12:19It's the same team I just mentioned.
12:20Right.
12:21Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida, Houston, Iowa State, Michigan State, and Louisville.
12:25Let's go back to Week 6.
12:27Mid-December.
12:28The Week 6 AP poll.
12:31Okay.
12:31Since 2004, every champ has been ranked in the Top 12 in the Week 6 AP poll.
12:38How long is the sample size?
12:4004.
12:41Jeez.
12:42We're talking 22 years now.
12:43Okay.
12:44So, it's very random.
12:46I get it.
12:47That means Arizona, Michigan, Duke, Iowa State, UConn, Purdue, Houston, Gonzaga, Michigan State.
13:00Hang on, hang on.
13:00After Purdue, who?
13:01Houston.
13:02Yeah.
13:03Zags.
13:03Yeah.
13:04Michigan State.
13:05Yeah.
13:05BYU.
13:07Mm-hmm.
13:07Louisville.
13:09Bama.
13:11Mm.
13:12Do they count drug arrests into this?
13:15Yeah.
13:15Well, they do not.
13:16Oh.
13:17All right.
13:18So, next one.
13:20All right.
13:21What is this saying?
13:23Wait, did you handwrite all this?
13:24I did, yeah.
13:25Okay.
13:26Let me see the handwriting, because yesterday you were really complimentary of Bobby's handwriting.
13:30This is not too bad.
13:32Not too bad.
13:33I start to, I get carpal tunnel.
13:34Yeah, it's clearly fading on this back.
13:37Yeah, it's fading.
13:37Like, the second page is much worse than the first.
13:41How could it be this much of a drop-off?
13:42Where's the cramp?
13:43Do you see the cramp in the right?
13:45The cramp is, like, right here.
13:47Number eight.
13:49Number eight's the cramp.
13:50You just started pinching your hand.
13:51So, all those teams I just gave you, I want you to cross some off.
13:55Okay.
13:55Okay.
13:56Teams that lose their conference tournament opener have never won the title.
14:00Oh!
14:01Wave goodbye to Michigan State, Illinois, and Nebraska, and Alabama.
14:09I didn't even write down Nebraska once so far.
14:12Carolina and Texas Tech.
14:14All right.
14:15Wave goodbye.
14:16Michigan State.
14:16So, you got to make that least, like, I think you have to make that least the quarterfinals.
14:20Say it again.
14:20Michigan State.
14:21Who else?
14:21Michigan State, Illinois, Nebraska, Tech, Bama, Carolina.
14:27So, you got to make it to quarterfinals of your conference tournament.
14:29Okay?
14:31All right.
14:32So, no two-seed has started the year unranked and made the Final Four.
14:38That doesn't apply here.
14:39We don't have any.
14:41We could have had a couple.
14:42I think if Vandy beat Arkansas, they might have been on the two-line, and they would have won.
14:46They would have qualified.
14:48There's not a first-year head coach.
14:50Again, no team for the Big Ten has won since 2000.
14:53No team for the Pacific Time Zone has won since 1997.
14:57Upset teams that are upset specials.
15:01These are mid-majors who play in the top quadrant of the Ken Palm world.
15:07Okay.
15:08These are the teams that you want to pick that are most likely to upset a major program.
15:15Love it.
15:16McNeese.
15:18So, basically, this analytic is teams that have the most possessions.
15:23That's because of rebounding, offensive rebounding, whatever.
15:26Most possessions and highest efficiency.
15:28So, the efficiency is on whatever the bottom row is, Bobby, and the possessions are on the top.
15:35On that axis, you want me to be in the top right quadrant.
15:38McNeese.
15:39South Florida.
15:40Ah, Mircon.
15:41St. Mary's, Gonzaga, High Point, Utah State, Santa Clara.
15:48Hang on.
15:49High Point, who?
15:50Utah State, Santa Clara, and St. Louis.
15:54Those are the teams that are most likely to be these bracket busters.
15:59Okay.
15:59So, RJ Choppy's bracket tips right here on 105.3 The Fan.
16:02And there we go.
16:03I did the thing that they do at the...
16:05The casino.
16:06The blackjack table.
16:08Who was after USF?
16:10St. Mary's.
16:11St. Mary's, okay.
16:12All right.
16:13I definitely feel good about the bracket I picked them.
16:15This all falls pretty much in line with his tips.
16:17Really?
16:17Mm-hmm.
16:18And, Bobby, what's the point system again?
16:20Do we have that down?
16:21Yeah, it's like it builds.
16:23So, it's like one point for a winner in the first round, two points for a winner in the
16:26second round, and then it just keeps building.
16:27And then I think there's a bonus on if you pick the champ.
16:30Yeah, and then real quick, last year was just the second time ever that a team from Dayton,
16:36the first four, so tonight's Texas, NC State, tomorrow, SMU, Miami.
16:40Last year was just the second time ever a first four team did not win the round of 64 game.
16:47So, every year, except for two, a team that played in Dayton won and beat a six seed or
16:54a one seed.
16:55Bobby, if I gave you $35.
16:59Mm-hmm.
17:00It's very specific.
17:01Yeah, I didn't want to go $40.
17:02$40 felt too cheap.
17:04If I type in all these qualifications into AI and have them do my bracket, can that be done
17:09easy?
17:11Um, it could as well, yeah, if I, if I were to, you would have to.
17:15Like, is all that from a link?
17:18Well, uh, yeah, I mean, I've done a lot.
17:20Like, one link or your extra homework?
17:22Like, could I, could I go to AI and say, take these three links and fill up my bracket
17:26accordingly?
17:27Yeah, yeah, if I had, if I had the source data, which I can copy and paste in there.
17:32Oh, God.
17:33Yeah.
17:33Because I, is this not painstaking to anyone else?
17:37And then you want to fill out three or four of these?
17:39If you want to sit here and go through, which I will have to do.
17:42I didn't write any of it down, Sean, so I'm just going to go back on the Odyssey app and
17:45listen.
17:46I'll, I'll take a picture of this, and if you can decipher the hieroglyphics.
17:49Oh, yeah.
17:50Uh, I'll post this on social media.
17:52I have, I have five first round upsets.
17:55Ooh, there it is.
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