“It’s ALL Starting To Unravel” Alex Phillips’ Biggest Moments Of The Week - TalkTV

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Transcript

00:00:04it was actually on this station this morning talking with our very own jeremy kyle let's have

00:00:10a look here in leeds where rachel reeves is the mp one in four aren't working now you'd think the

00:00:16person in charge of the economy would be focused on fixing that instead she's been hanging out with

00:00:22the man she describes as her friend arshan katana pleasure to be here with you this evening a man

00:00:28who shared a military video which also glorified terrorists from two terror groups who said that

00:00:34those who speak against islam are an evil gang who he will help to destroy who's hosted preachers at

00:00:41his leeds mosque with vile views well there you go you can't choose your family but you can choose

00:00:48your friends and perhaps rachel reeves needs to be a little bit more circumspect as to who she

00:00:52allies herself to let's speak now to the brilliant samara gill talk reporter live from the reform uk

00:00:57press conference venue in london good morning samara um first of all let's talk mopping up after

00:01:04the galton and denton by-election labor licking its wounds reform still claiming this however as a bit

00:01:11of a win you know it's one of their least likely winnable seats in the country and yet they saw

00:01:17a

00:01:17huge improvement in vote share yes absolutely i mean this is kind of that seat was 440 first on the

00:01:27reform sort of uh chart to win so the fact that they were able to clean up half the vote

00:01:32share is

00:01:33really impressive but i think there's a bigger reminder out of the gorton and denton by-election

00:01:38and that's the fact that the greens are not messing around they are here to stay and you can even

00:01:43see

00:01:43with keir starmer's weakness over the weekend uh to denounce the islamic republic and to support

00:01:49america and israel that this win in gorton and denton has somewhat i mean call me tinfoil hat but it

00:01:56seems to have somewhat influenced already foreign policy which is really really scary when you think

00:02:01about it you can see that starmer is being trepidatious with what he does who he offends

00:02:07uh and a potential sort of swing into a further left-wing labor something that we haven't seen

00:02:14from starmer i mean we know that he's very spineless we know that he'll go any direction the wind blows

00:02:20but it's really interesting to see this sort of uh ripple effects of this gorton and denton by-election

00:02:26i think we shouldn't underestimate uh what has happened but you know really good uh sort of job from

00:02:33reform unfortunately they didn't get it passed it's a very difficult constituency having hung out

00:02:38there over the weekend and on thursday and friday i can see why the greens won so clearly

00:02:45the uh the video put up today by robert jenner looking at those associations between

00:02:51rachel reeves and uh one could suggest the now unknown islamist do we think that that is going to

00:02:59be the the main subject of what reform are going to be talking about at 11 o'clock

00:03:05well you never know with these conferences alex it can go one way or the other i mean we don't

00:03:10know

00:03:10they might have a labor defection uh from behind a glittery curtain uh you just never know uh at

00:03:17these presses which way it will go but i think jenner will be focusing on that really horrible

00:03:22relationship that has been exposed this morning by him massive traction on social media i mean that

00:03:29video is already on hundreds of thousands of views seeing how the gorton and denton by-election went

00:03:34maybe that will help labor's chances uh in any future by-election that you know rachel reeves was

00:03:40cozying up to an islamist uh i joke but really uh it's a shocking revelation and it just shows how

00:03:47much we don't know about the people that we've given uh access to the purse pocket of this country to

00:03:53keys to number 10 what their alliances are i mean it's really really concerning that a fellow mp has

00:04:01had to expose this not a journalist not anyone from the media uh and uh i think it's really telling

00:04:08to

00:04:09where labor's allegiances lie i mean this is someone who was the leader of uh the first leader of mosques

00:04:15in the country someone who's got a proper agenda to spread uh anti-british sentiment in some ways as

00:04:22it's been exposed uh around the country and i don't think uh that it's appropriate that our chancellor

00:04:29has any type of relationship with him uh and and that was exposed to you know they met just recently

00:04:35according to robert jenrich and over the course of the weekend farage has definitely used the

00:04:40by-election and things that reported on during that by-election as a platform

00:04:44uh from which to announce let's say some new policies or outlines of some of the party's

00:04:50ideologies such as uh preventing foreigners from voting in our elections a crackdown on postal votes

00:04:56postal votes this time because of the duration of the campaign and how quickly that by-election was

00:05:00called didn't play as key a part but we did see perhaps in its place ballot stuffing being perpetrated

00:05:07through what is now being called family voting uh are we likely to hear more on on that do you

00:05:12think

00:05:15yeah you can call it family voting or you can call it electoral fraud which is what it actually is

00:05:21and we're gonna see more and more of this i think across the country as we see demographic change

00:05:27i do think it's a real issue now i wouldn't side with the camp that's saying that it was

00:05:32the key issue in gorton and denton because the greens did want win it by a country mile

00:05:38but it's going to be a reoccurring problem now when you see the postal votes as you mentioned alex

00:05:43um we're also talking about patriarchal figures within the family sitting their families down and

00:05:51telling them which box to tick which is a really really horrible state of affairs in this country

00:05:57and look it's something that maybe 20 years ago when you were door knocking you might go and say

00:06:02uh you know someone from a christian background might open the door this is about 20 years ago

00:06:07and say you know they'd ask oh who's who are you voting for and she'd say oh i'll go grab

00:06:11my husband

00:06:11but the country's moved on from that and unfortunately certain parts of the community are stuck in this

00:06:18very patriarchal system whereby one person in their household decides exactly who they vote for and

00:06:24i really do think that in the upcoming election may the 7th and also the uh big general election in

00:06:32a couple years

00:06:33is going to be a problem especially considering the the the muslim population which uh probably the main

00:06:40perpetrators of this they're the ones having the kids and procreating which is no issue in fact hats off to

00:06:45them for actually doing their duty but i do think that as we see uh britain change of course the

00:06:52electorate

00:06:53and the electoral votes are going to change too welcome aboard mr james price former conservative

00:06:58government advisor uh now my near neighbor and james both of us uh busy in our hood now isn't it

00:07:04because we both live just downstream of raf fairfords and i think if we're sitting and having a gin and

00:07:10tonic in our gardens on a balmy evening we might get to sort of um become train not train spotters

00:07:16plane spotters in our spare time absolutely right look for the excellent work that the american

00:07:22air force will be doing i'll go down there and make them gin and tonic so for what it's worth

00:07:27do you know what i would happily do the same i've been going to fairfad air show ever since i

00:07:31was

00:07:31knee-high to a grasshopper and i'm quite excited about the idea we might start seeing a bit of

00:07:36activity out of that air base now what do you make of sir keir starmer's position in all of this

00:07:43because it seems to me the mask is really slipping if there was this suggestion that he felt very

00:07:48under threat by the green party and it's um marrying up with um the muslim votes during the

00:07:55gorton and denton by-election by gummies showing it isn't he absolutely right i will leave some of

00:08:01the legal twists and turns to natasha hasdorf who you just had on goodness me isn't she good

00:08:06isn't she when i was when i was at university with her she was smarter than me and she's got

00:08:10a lot

00:08:10smarter than me even since but it's interesting to note on that on that point and how the legality

00:08:15issues bleed into domestic british politics that you go from the stance of going oh well

00:08:20international law says that we can't do this therefore we must have the worst dictators in

00:08:25the world continue to dictate horrible terms to their people and kill tens of thousands yada yada

00:08:30yada it's another step now that labour have gone to which is even though it's highly contested as

00:08:36natasha points out international law doesn't actually now seem to stop us from getting involved in

00:08:40this we will lie and hide behind international law so as not to upset certain tenuous members of the

00:08:48labour voting coalition because we are scared in britain now and with some justification to be fair

00:08:54about rioting on the streets and the kind of domestic not to say anything else the political

00:09:00fallout of what happens if britain ends up getting involved in this why is that because for many many

00:09:05years now we have imported people with the most awful backward third world views in the world into

00:09:10the country and the chickens are coming home to roost the chickens are coming home to roost indeed and

00:09:16you know reform uk having that press conference at 11 a.m i'd assume that they decided they were going

00:09:23to do

00:09:23that last week not anticipating that we'd now be living in the middle of a sort of emerging burgeoning

00:09:29international conflict following what happened on saturday morning and decided to go ahead with it

00:09:33anyway but what is interesting is what they were talking about in that press conference some of

00:09:38rachel reeve's affiliations of people with islamist attitudes nigel farge talking about

00:09:43foreigners not being allowed the vote exposing that numerous asylum seekers have been given the

00:09:50opportunity to take part in plebiscites in the united kingdom it all to me ties together around one

00:09:57central question which is is the tail wagging the dog that's a very good way to put it we see

00:10:05this

00:10:06happening in in lots of other places where there are multi-ethnic or more more specifically more

00:10:11accurately we should say multicultural communities now you have this very very openly when you look

00:10:16at the politics of the united states of america strategists for the democratic party for example

00:10:21will say we've got to do this we've got to do that we've got to do the other in order

00:10:26to appeal to

00:10:27this ethnic voter group or that ethnic voter group or this demographic or whatever and so any semblance

00:10:33in lots of ways of there being a kind of national story has gone out the window there and that

00:10:37is what

00:10:38is now happening increasingly in the united kingdom i think we maybe got this one last election that we

00:10:43can we can nip this in the bud if the right kind of parties emphasis on the word right win

00:10:48or do very

00:10:48well in that election but you know you've seen a long time labor doing these same tactics and it's

00:10:54only now that some of those ethnic groups some of those we should again say cultural groups instead

00:10:59have started turning against the labor party because there is an even more craven and despicable and

00:11:05disgusting party in the form of the once greens who are now going after explicitly the balkanization of

00:11:11britain in its campaigning as we saw last week in gorton and denton maybe labor might suddenly go hmm

00:11:17now this horrendous state of affairs isn't helping us we might do something about it but i won't hold

00:11:22my breath but this is it because what i'm trying to understand is is the motivation i think previously

00:11:29trying to come up with a policy slate that attracted the muslim bloc vote was a game of numbers for

00:11:36the

00:11:36labor party but my worry now is that game has been played for so long with such devastating consequences

00:11:44that we've now moved beyond this being an electoral calculation to a security calculation you know

00:11:50were we to suddenly be in lockstep with america like we were in the first and second gulf war um

00:11:57supporting them fully in their advanced preemptive strikes against iran what sort of blood would be

00:12:03spilled on our streets is this simply about counting votes or is this simply about preventing a body count

00:12:10i think i think you're right and this is the sadness where we've got to the the big concern i've

00:12:15got and

00:12:16take the example of iran into this or the palestinians or only the rest of it the broader issue exactly

00:12:21as

00:12:21you say is that the authorities are now acutely aware although they won't really admit it or talk

00:12:27about it of these sorts of broiling febrile social tensions that are out there in great swathes of the

00:12:34country now hard for me to feel out in the cotswolds hard for some people who are in nice cuddly

00:12:39areas

00:12:40to worry about it but in lots of other cities and towns and increasingly in villages as well

00:12:45this stuff exists and there is no strategy by the state by any apparatus of the state be that the

00:12:51police

00:12:52perhaps the security services they can't do anything because they're limited by the politics

00:12:56the politicians the home office to do anything about this other than try day to day to manage these

00:13:02things at a tactical level that's why when there is a horrendous terrorist attack there are bits of

00:13:07the of the cabinet office that will get wheeled out to do the old come by our don't look back

00:13:12in

00:13:12anger give peace a chance we reject division and all this sort of nonsense that comes out there

00:13:17rather than try and actually face this thing and and i suppose that's a version of what's been

00:13:22happening by the americans of barack obama and joe biden on iran and they've realized now under trump

00:13:27that you have to come face these sorts of issues with an actual plan even if it will be unpleasant

00:13:33because the idea of building it up to get even worse is totally unpalatable and just finally on this

00:13:39and what happens if this wide scale uh war goes bigger and wider if it brings other people into

00:13:45the region what happens if that pakistan india conflict of last year wasn't nipped in the bud early

00:13:51what would happen with the very large indian and pakistani diaspora communities in the united kingdom

00:13:57i sat in the back of an uber last year when that war was going on and it was someone

00:14:01who described

00:14:01himself as a pakistani saying i hope we get them i hope we nuke them i hope we bomb them

00:14:06talking about

00:14:07the indians and this happens all around the country when eritrea and ethiopia have pops at each other

00:14:12you see those two groups or the diasporas of those two groups kicking off in north london we've seen it

00:14:17happen on the streets of leicester and the counter to this is what nearly happened in some of that

00:14:22rioting uh just after starmer was elected and those awful southport murders when it felt very

00:14:28very febrile indeed so not only have you got these diasporas you care more about what's happening

00:14:33in their own real countries back in in other countries but you've also now got that sort of

00:14:38resentment from the from the the brits who've been here for a long time should we put it

00:14:42who feel that they are now being treated as a second tier of citizen and there's no great strategy

00:14:48to deal with this to try and make these groups to uh integrate or to owe their loyalty to britain

00:14:54there is just short-term managing of the problem and hoping that we can just keep muddling through

00:15:00and that maybe flare-ups happen on someone else's watch hope is not a strategy is the regime going

00:15:06to fall there have been suggestions that they've reached out to president trump saying we want a

00:15:10conversation uh donald trump putting it back on the table well you should have talked sooner but

00:15:15perhaps we can talk now but to many iranians um i understand that their hope would be and certainly

00:15:23not all uh iranians but uh it's a significant number their hope would be that america would fight

00:15:28until the downfall of the regime is that possible is it sort of a you know a a many-headed

00:15:36beast

00:15:37that unfortunately is going to be extremely difficult to kill off once and for all what do you think the

00:15:42modus operandi is now well i do think that it's important the united states and also israel follow

00:15:49through uh with bringing down this regime now does that mean they can have some kind of discussion

00:15:55assuming that whoever is left in the leadership of the islamic republic wants to have a discussion i

00:16:00mean i guess sure but at the end of the day what really needs to change here is the structure

00:16:05of the

00:16:06regime itself that means the dismantling of the irgc it remains it means accountability also legal

00:16:12accountability whether under iranian law or international law for the crimes against humanity

00:16:16that have been committed by this regime and all its affiliates all of the the henchmen of khamenei

00:16:22perhaps he's been eliminated but there's a lot of people responsible for this widespread bloodshed for

00:16:2847 years who need to be held accountable i do think it's possible i do think the iranian

00:16:34people are going to see this through to the end i don't think it's going to happen quickly i think

00:16:39it's going to take a bit of time and it's also going to take a lot of coordination on a

00:16:42non-military

00:16:43front which is important to discuss we can't completely dismantle the irgc if we aren't defunding

00:16:49it and where is all their money well a lot of it's in the uk we need to enforce those

00:16:54sanctions

00:16:54we need to crack down on those people we need to do research to find who these people are to

00:16:59find

00:16:59where they are and to find where they're hiding the money of the iranian people that they've stolen

00:17:04a really important point you made there about the fact that the united kingdom unlike its european

00:17:10counterparts are yet to prescribe the irgc we understand that they have bases here um there's

00:17:18been a lack of willingness from our prime minister to partner with america on the offensive elements to

00:17:23these strikes and giving america only an extremely limited scope of um locations capabilities and

00:17:29assets being launched from the united kingdom um what do you make of that in terms of the uk's role

00:17:38internationally geopolitically in this conflict well i mean this is pure unadulterated cowardice from

00:17:44keir starmer and it's not the first time that we've seen it and unfortunately it's not the first

00:17:48government in the uk that we've seen that's quite cowardly when it comes to the islamic regime although he

00:17:53does seem to be particularly bad as of uh as of late but the fact that the uk hasn't prescribed

00:17:59the irgc behind even the european union it's despicable i mean there's really no excuse for

00:18:05it especially given the fact that dozens of terror plots have been carried out or have been plotted at

00:18:10least uh foiled thankfully but have been plotted by the irgc inside of uk territory i mean this is

00:18:17obscene and let's remember the fact that earlier the regime persecuted iran international which

00:18:23had their headquarters in london to the point where they weren't able to work from those offices due

00:18:28to the death threats and then more recently they've threatened manoto another persian language anti-regime

00:18:33outlet with a major following based out of the uk same thing these terror threats are constant against

00:18:40iranians iranian dissidents iranian media anybody who says things that the regime doesn't like is a target

00:18:46in the united kingdom and this is unimaginable the united kingdom of all places which is supposed to be

00:18:53a bastion of free speech of democracy of all of these western civilizational rights that in many cases

00:19:00they they started and still still this is the situation for people who flee those oppressive

00:19:06countries and come to the uk seeking safety seeking shelter from places like iran there's no excuse for it

00:19:13and the pitiful response of oh we're gonna allow them but only defensively after the islamic republic

00:19:19fires missiles at raf bases where is your spine what is wrong with the government i mean thankfully we

00:19:26were talking earlier about uh we knew that they were two unmanned drones heading towards raf akrotiri in

00:19:32cyprus and given that the lead time that um military defensive elements have to intercept those we can now let

00:19:40you know that they have been successfully intercepted uh but you're right emily an act of aggression

00:19:46against the united kingdom against an raf air base on an eu member states by iran and still the

00:19:54government seems to be lily livid about standing up to the regime let's i want to talk to you though

00:19:58about um i want to talk to you about the near neighbors of israel and iran because it to me

00:20:04it seems

00:20:05an incredibly bizarre modus operandi for the iranian regime to be striking some of those

00:20:13near neighbors regardless of whether or not there may be air bases or military assets positioned in or

00:20:19near them um in terms of it to me it appears to be concretizing supports from gulf states in favor

00:20:26of

00:20:27america and not the reverse which one would imagine would have been tehran's objective

00:20:33well i do think that the regime has overplayed their hand when it comes to responding to

00:20:38what the united states and israel have done inside iran targeting those regime sites the fact that

00:20:44they're bombing multiple muslim countries uh it's just it just speaks to the fact that they're not

00:20:51understanding where they actually are situated right now both amongst their own people we saw millions of

00:20:58them in the streets that unfortunately tens of thousands got massacred by the regime but beyond

00:21:03the borders of iran i mean we see all of these arab states who have been very critical in some

00:21:09cases

00:21:09of israel over the gaza war and many other issues by no means are they all allies of the state

00:21:15of israel

00:21:15and yet the islamic republic is turning them into allies of the state of israel and this idea that you

00:21:22can go around

00:21:23firing ballistic missiles at at hotels in dubai at airports at the kuwait airport it's it's absurd i

00:21:30mean this is something that no country should accept and that is why we already see the uae saudi arabia

00:21:37kuwait many of these countries aligning against the islamic regime now we know they didn't like the

00:21:42islamic regime before but there was sort of a tacit acceptance that perhaps it's better to have a

00:21:48weakened regime than a regime change i think that calculus is rapidly changing i mean the reality of

00:21:54the situation is this regime is uh they export their terrorism as they say they export the revolution

00:22:00of 79 that's been their mo from day one and that includes the arab world as well and they thought

00:22:06that

00:22:06perhaps we could contain it which is apparently the policy of keir starmer as well the reality we're

00:22:11seeing today is that the islamic regime can't be contained it must be changed it must fall for the

00:22:17sake of the region but for all of humanity quite frankly including the united kingdom let's talk

00:22:23about that because uh the concept of iranian regime change is being echoed not just on the airways but

00:22:29indeed by the perpetrators of these offensives um but change to what is the big question we have heard

00:22:37in the precursor to this i think it has been done relatively deliberately as some sort of style

00:22:42of almost the rolling out of raza palavi who is a the crown prince's um uh what do you say

00:22:49ostracized

00:22:50son um potentially coming back and re-establishing the shardom whether you'd call it that a royal family

00:22:57as part of a constitutional democratic uh royal head of state in iran uh but what a lot of western

00:23:04viewers of this might not understand is we we often look at countries like iran and just think of it

00:23:09as one

00:23:09peoples it is not there will be the baloks with their own particular interests the kurds with their

00:23:15interests the persians with their interests so do you believe that after all is said and done if we

00:23:22do see the collapse of the regime however long it takes that there is a process in place of something

00:23:29to transition to and how to get there i absolutely believe that there is a pathway to a transition to

00:23:37democracy i do think that we've seen remarkable support from many of those groups that you

00:23:43mentioned even the ethnic minority groups in iran that have had some opposition to the previous uh

00:23:50shah they have been chanting in the streets for the return of raza palavi now palavi himself hasn't

00:23:57advocated for monarchy in fact he said the opposite both in interviews with me and in many many subsequent

00:24:03interviews he said explicitly it's not my desire to be king of iran what i want to see is a

00:24:09democracy

00:24:09in iran and the plan that he's proposed and that he's worked with other governments in in pursuing uh

00:24:16has been one of transition what he's proposing is a transition period that he leads because the people

00:24:22want him to that is the only reason that he has legitimacy and that would see a referendum in which

00:24:28the iranian people and them alone would choose the system of government that they want that could be

00:24:33a monarchy it could be a democracy it could be a combination could be parliamentary we don't know

00:24:39yet that's really up to them to decide not me not anyone else but do we believe that they're united

00:24:44enough to be able to create something afterwards in the aftermath of this that all iranians can get

00:24:51behind because where we have seen interventionist policies from the west in the middle east before

00:24:55uh into the vacuum that is being created by the removal of all be they tyrannical leaders has poured

00:25:01in uh often something sectarian tribal and far more ghoulish i don't think it's the same situation

00:25:08even close to iraq when we look at iraq in 2003 there was no uh singular opposition figure that commanded

00:25:15even close to as much support as we see of course in the diaspora but more importantly inside iran

00:25:20for reza pahlavi as a transitional leader i think that there are plans in place that are

00:25:25being done in conjunction with international with other governments in terms of what the day after

00:25:31this regime falls will look like and i am confident that the iranian people are united enough obviously

00:25:36not every single person is going to support any one plan or any one leader so there's going to be

00:25:43some opposition and some debate and there should be i mean that's a healthy society where there's debate

00:25:47that happens in that form but i do think that for the first time we're seeing the iranian people united

00:25:52enough to really oversee that transition into something much more positive that can contribute

00:25:57to the international community as a positive player rather than as a pariah state that's

00:26:03endangering everyone around them this is also the history of the iranian people which is quite

00:26:07different than afghanistan or iraq in terms of the structure of the state it's a highly educated

00:26:12population that desires democracy that has gone to great lengths to risk their own lives to call

00:26:18for this and to push back i think we're going to see a very very different reality on the ground

00:26:23inside iran than we would have seen in any other country advocating regime change and the most

00:26:28important thing to remember is that the concept of regime change isn't something that's being pushed

00:26:33by foreign powers this is something that the iranian people have been calling for have been begging for

00:26:39in recent months because they want that change and are unable to with the irgc and the islamic regime

00:26:46being as oppressive as they are today the prime minister is coming under fire from various people

00:26:51about perhaps being a bit lily-livered uh a little bit too hesitant to back uh the united states and

00:26:58israel in the launch of their offensive against iran taking out a regime that i think most people

00:27:03uh would agree is not a good thing for the world but uh peter hitchens columnist that mail on sunday

00:27:09today has written an article and the title is uh when we see a war can't we stop and think

00:27:16before going in let's welcome peter hitchens to the show now peter are you sort of trepidatious about

00:27:22what israel and the us have decided they're going to do do you think the prime minister's approach is

00:27:27perhaps the correct one well i don't think the prime minister's approach is correct because he's

00:27:33pretty much reversed it now but i think that his initial response was perfectly intelligent i am i

00:27:38think probably the most uh long-standing and and ferocious critic of this prime minister i urge people

00:27:45not to put him into office i have many things to say against him but if he's got sense enough

00:27:50to see

00:27:50that plunging this country into involvement in yet another middle eastern war whose end is not known

00:27:55is unwise then i have to put in a good word for him however much i disapprove of him we

00:28:01are war crazy

00:28:02in this country i don't understand why we are so keen on the starting of and the continuing of wars

00:28:07which may well do a serious damage if this war continues and i have no way of telling what its

00:28:12end will be then we could face very very severe economic damage because of the huge increase in

00:28:18the price of oil and gas which is going to very likely result from it leaving aside any other issues

00:28:23i

00:28:24don't know why any government would want that to happen nor to expose very large numbers of british

00:28:28citizens in the middle east to the danger which they're now in why do people seem so keen on having

00:28:35wars do they think war is a computer game uh they're not aware of what happens uh to people when

00:28:41they see

00:28:41these explosions on so they're not aware of the bodies which lie beneath the clouds of smoke they're not

00:28:46aware of the long-term implications i don't know i i completely baffled i've seen the face of war very

00:28:52slightly i always try to avoid it in my work that i have and it's not a thing to be

00:28:56to be sought and

00:28:57there was an alternative route to this which the world tried to take uh in 2015 and an agreement in

00:29:03which sanctions on iran were lifted in return for very serious restrictions on its nuclear development

00:29:09and at that time most people thought it was a very satisfactory agreement except for one dole trump

00:29:14who in 2018 ripped it up and has been ever since it seems to me pursuing a course of war

00:29:20i i can see no

00:29:21sense in it and i certainly can't see what what britain has to gain from it this is a country

00:29:26which

00:29:26which can't even fix its own potholes educate its own children or police its own streets

00:29:30why we think we can reform the world with weapons we don't have and money we haven't got i don't

00:29:35know

00:29:36is there a possibility here because we know that um for a long time the west have tried the diplomatic

00:29:41routes with iran via the jcpoa the iran nuclear deal as it's more commonly known and that they they

00:29:47they were nagged on a lot of the promises they made and there was a real risk and we've seen

00:29:52that's simply false the the the iranian government was keeping the promises made of jcpoa

00:29:57and then donald trump ripped it up uh it wasn't it wasn't because the the iranian government was

00:30:02breaking the agreement i think i defy you to come with it come out with an instance of doing so

00:30:07it's

00:30:07because there was a big lobby against the agreement having existed in the first place to which donald trump

00:30:12listened and he said he wasn't having any more of it as far as i know and i said prove

00:30:17me wrong if

00:30:17you want with the with the t sale breach as far as i know the inspectors were were content with

00:30:22the

00:30:23way in which iran was abiding by its side of the agreement so so you see is actually what's happened

00:30:27here is it was sort of trump 1.0 who dust-binned the jcpoa and the problems have arisen since

00:30:33then

00:30:33where iran have been proliferating various weapons building up a stockpile of ballistics to then defend

00:30:39the creation of nuclear armaments well that's that is correct iran's iran's response once the

00:30:46agreement was ripped up and it had no other recourse to try and end the very serious sanctions which

00:30:51have made life a misery for uh not not for the iranian regime which is highly corrupt and lives

00:30:57separately from people but the the iranian people themselves have a miserable time as a result of

00:31:03these sanctions and it the the iranian response to having the agreement ripped up was uh was certainly

00:31:10an unpleasant and undesirable one but the it was not iran which broke this agreement in the first place

00:31:16i mean there's the other this is there's the twin elements here that isn't just about iran

00:31:20proliferating various extremely dangerous weapons long-range hypersonic missiles ballistics nuclear arms

00:31:26etc but the funding of terror organizations both in the gulf and around the world um do you think

00:31:34that i mean many people are looking at this as well this is israel's incentive here israel had decided

00:31:38they needed to go in get iran uh get this regime out of the picture for their own sense of

00:31:43security and

00:31:44have u.s backing surely that is an understandable existential issue for israel well it's understandable

00:31:51whether it's existential or not i don't know uh the the problem with wars is that no one once they

00:31:56start

00:31:57them knows how they will end and going right back to 1914 when britain went into the first world war

00:32:03people thought it would be largely a naval conflict in which we wouldn't be greatly involved we ended up

00:32:08sending millions of men to thalandus a large number of whom died or were maimed people don't know how

00:32:13wars will end and we don't know how this one will end and i don't i don't pretend to know

00:32:18but you always

00:32:18take a risk uh whether there was an existential threat to israel from iran or not was this the

00:32:24right policy to bring that to an end my own view and i'm one of the rare people in british

00:32:28journals

00:32:29who's actually been to iran my own view is that the best way to bring iran back into the comity

00:32:34of

00:32:34civilized nations is to undermine its uh its horrible regime by recreating the strong civil society it used

00:32:41to have and which would eventually lead to another containment and deterrence generally better ways

00:32:47of resolving these problems than of an unpredictable uh expensive and dangerous wars as i say nobody

00:32:53knows how this will end and here and if the straits of hormones remain closed for much longer then the

00:32:59economic damage will be huge i remember back in 1973 the yom kippur war which which plunged the world

00:33:04into a long period of darkness very high inflation crisis uh probably the worst since the 1930s which i

00:33:10remember very well going through and nobody realized that the the day that war began just how big its

00:33:16implications would be be very careful what you want i just said i don't see why people are not more

00:33:21cautious about war and they're not more skeptical when it started and i think that keir starmer's

00:33:27statement that he didn't believe in in in in regime change from the sky is one of the most intelligent

00:33:34things i've ever heard him say i don't either i have to say that the other the other thing is

00:33:39that

00:33:39one donald j trump became president of the united states by promising his followers that he would

00:33:44not engage in in further forever wars in the middle east and saying loudly he didn't believe in regime

00:33:50change he's now completely turned his back on one of the major policies which got him into office and

00:33:55i believe from the the polls that i've seen that the response to his action in the united states

00:34:00is very skeptical indeed with probably only one in four supporting it why in this country it should

00:34:05be so widely supported both in the media and apparently in parliament i just don't know it's

00:34:10one of the weirdest events i've i've seen in a in a long life of observing uh governments

00:34:15living in very strange ways why are we so keen on it well it's i suppose it's a question everyone

00:34:21would have to answer individually uh peter i was going to put another question to you but we have just

00:34:26under about 40 seconds um i just very quickly we've learned that france is sending warships to

00:34:31defend the british base we know greece has sent warships to defend cyprus our world navy is tied up

00:34:36in portsmouth doesn't really look good for the uk does it well of course not this is ridiculous

00:34:42much of our attitude towards this is based on a ridiculous failure to recognize we are no longer

00:34:47a great power military or economically or in any other way it's time we grew up and realized that

00:34:52we weren't such a thing and began to build a country that uh was successful rather than

00:34:57mired in illusions about us still being a rich great power we're not one i said earlier on we

00:35:03had some breaking news that three people have been arrested in london and in wales for spying for china

00:35:10the partner of a sitting labor mp is among three people arrested on suspicion of spying for china

00:35:22i'm not surprised security services are investigating foreign interference in uk democracy including

00:35:29attempts to obtain information on policy making and interfere with sovereign affairs the met police

00:35:36have confirmed three individuals were arrested on wednesday by counter-terrorism police on suspicion

00:35:41of assisting a foreign intelligence service detectors and counter-terrorism policing in london which is

00:35:47leading the investigation arrested a 39 year old man in london a 68 year old man in powys in wales

00:35:55and

00:35:55a 43 year old man in pontyclean in wales previous cases of alleged spying within parliament have caused

00:36:01deep concern in westminster prompting warnings of a serious systemic challenge to british democracy now

00:36:06i have said for a long time the cobweb of links between the labor party and the ccp we've seen

00:36:13accusations of spying with political aids for labor mps before we've seen multiple ministers go out to

00:36:20glad hand people in the ccp we've seen starmer himself go out for a cozy with president xi jinping

00:36:28we have seen uh what has gone on with the chagos islands yeah this now the partner of a sitting

00:36:35labor

00:36:36mp among three people arrested on suspicion of spying for china my goodness i'm not surprised

00:36:42and counter-terror police are the other are the element of the police that will deal with national

00:36:46security issues so you know they get involved in there and of course we remember barry gardner who

00:36:50yes was influenced by you know someone who mi5 decided to out publicly uh she's never been charged

00:36:57there's never been criminal prosecutions brought in but you know her son was was in barry gardner's

00:37:02office china is putting an awful lot of effort into getting into um parliament and into our

00:37:07parliamentary mps uh to try and influence them of course we've got the big decisions like the

00:37:10chinese embassy embassy and everything else that's in there and chagos and everything so what china

00:37:15wants to do is try and get in a place where they can find out the discussions that are going

00:37:19on behind

00:37:20closed doors to try and influence those elsewhere and then we've got the links from all of these

00:37:24different legal lawyers that seem to be influencing things on that are helping the government try and make

00:37:30geopolitical decisions with regard to chagos and other deals around the world and we don't know

00:37:35what links there are in there we know mauritius has got very close links into china and we know that

00:37:40china has been complaining about um the delays in the uh the the the chagos island deal and and

00:37:46everything else there's there's so many links in here it is so complex it's very very dangerous and

00:37:53our sovereignty our democracy is being undermined at every stage complex but at the same time i think

00:38:00we can be confident that when it comes to security services saying to the labour government mega

00:38:05embassy chagos islands they're not listening and you wonder who they're serving the uk people or the

00:38:11chinese government exactly now paul i'd imagine when rachel reeves wrote her spring statement um and was

00:38:17preparing for that a few weeks ago well she might not have expected to be announcing what her plans

00:38:24were and what the projections were and what the winds were um in the context of everything potentially

00:38:29going for want of a better phrase belly up um what on earth do you think is going to happen

00:38:36now how

00:38:36badly is britain likely to be impacted if what we see is a protracted crisis in the middle east

00:38:44well you're right i mean clearly uh the forecasts were made uh well before any of this happened

00:38:50in iran um you have to feel sorry for us the british public public but also actually for the chancellor

00:38:56uh when it comes to this i think she was hoping uh to have a stable period i mean quite

00:39:03it's been

00:39:04rather nice hasn't it we've come up to this spring statement there's been no speculation and actually

00:39:09um no no no policy surprises uh yesterday but uh this huge uncertainty created for what's happening in

00:39:16in the middle east now the answer to your question really uh is is it depends it depends on how

00:39:22long

00:39:22this goes on so uh throughout history we've had lots of these kind of um spikes where uh energy

00:39:29prices go up briefly because of something happening in the middle east or somewhere else and then they

00:39:33come back down again once things settle down and if that happens then the effect will be pretty

00:39:38small um on the other hand we've had other examples where this has lasted a long time whether

00:39:43we're looking at the ukraine war or whether we're looking uh back to the uh the crises of the 1970s

00:39:50and that can have a really big effect on the economy on household incomes uh on everything else

00:39:55i think it all depends on how long this um on how long this goes on i don't think we

00:40:01are going to see

00:40:02the scale of increase in prices that we saw uh after the ukraine war i don't think we're going to

00:40:06see the

00:40:07scale of um global economic disruption we saw in the 1970s uh but if this goes on for a period

00:40:13of time

00:40:13then clearly we're going to see a drag on the economy a drag on our incomes and higher energy

00:40:19prices how is this affecting stock markets how is this going to affect the uk's borrowing ability

00:40:27one would assume that coming over the horizon is going to be inflation one of the things that she

00:40:32you know gave herself a pat on the back for yesterday was saying well we haven't put up interest

00:40:37rates in fact they've come down uh six times under our watch well under the bank of england's watch

00:40:42um inflation is now under control well the thing is whenever you suddenly find yourself in a

00:40:47situation of fuel shortages uh the inability to move products from one part of the world to the

00:40:53other and we know that iran's targeting the strait of homers um naturally the end result is always

00:40:58inflation yeah i mean and i think this is where governments don't do themselves any favors when they

00:41:04claim that things that are happening anyway are down to their great management i mean actually the

00:41:09fact the interest rates were coming down was uh was gonna happen anyway really not much to do with

00:41:14what this government has done and you heard rachel reeves yesterday effectively blaming the last

00:41:18government for the uh 11 inflation we had back in uh 2022 that wasn't the last government's fault that

00:41:24was uh that was the result of the ukraine war um so governments actually have less control than

00:41:29they often claim they have and equally it will be very unfair to blame this government if we get a

00:41:35a spike in inflation a result of what's happening um in the middle east now but yes we will probably

00:41:41again if this persists and it really is a big if if this persists um then this is bad news

00:41:47on all

00:41:48fronts it will be it'll create a an increased cost of living here it'll be bad news for growth it

00:41:53will

00:41:53be bad news for the chancellor in terms of public finances and a really tough decision actually for

00:41:59the bank of england as to what they do on interest rates because you're right it will increase

00:42:03inflation you'd normally think well if inflation's up that that is a reason for increasing interest

00:42:09rates or at least not cutting them on the other hand this is just a negative shock which will be

00:42:13bad for the economy more generally and if you if you increase interest rates at the same time then

00:42:19that could slow the economy even further so this is a another another tough decision for the bank

00:42:24of england i think the most likely outcome is that interest rates will fall rather less quickly

00:42:29than we previously expected you say it you know it wouldn't necessarily be fair to blame this

00:42:35government i tend to disagree on that because i would suggest that the first priority of any

00:42:40government is the defense of the realm and i would say that this government and previous governments

00:42:45have actually not shored up any sort of resilience when it comes to energy self-sufficiency

00:42:50food self-sufficiency manufacturing self-sufficiency and when you suddenly end up in a situation where

00:42:55you are on the outskirts of a war that you could be dragged into that conflict or at least you're

00:43:01going to be suffering the shock waves of that then when you have not protected your country knowing that

00:43:06you're going to be able to keep the lights on knowing you're going to be able to keep factories

00:43:10manufacturing the things that you need knowing you're going to be able to get the food and the produce

00:43:14you need um that has a big impact which pushes up prices because of scarcity do you think that's a

00:43:20fair assessment that actually this government has potentially been and i would add previous governments

00:43:25rather self-indulgent uh by sort of playing a very sort of you know i would say lackadaisical game

00:43:33we're thinking there's not a crisis at the moment there won't be so we can focus on all of these

00:43:37nice

00:43:37to have priorities instead of looking at wow you know if we do come to a moment where the proverbial

00:43:43hits the fan we're going to need to make sure that we can access oil and gas in the north

00:43:49sea etc

00:43:51well i think you've got a fair point on accessing the oil and gas in the north sea uh though

00:43:56not not

00:43:57that the decisions that this government has made would make any difference to that now i mean that's uh

00:44:01those choices are about access over over the long term because new drilling takes an awful long

00:44:07time to come through but you know but the future will happen and i think that is an issue otherwise

00:44:11i don't think what you said frankly is fair or if it is fair then it's a criticism not really

00:44:16of

00:44:17governments but of the electorate because if we had done as you suggest and tried to be

00:44:22significantly more self-sufficient in food or significantly more self-sufficient in manufacturing

00:44:27that would have cost us an enormous amount of money it would have meant that we'd be even

00:44:31significantly worse off than we are now i mean what i think we've done is take part in a world

00:44:36trading system which we've taken advantage of and has maintained at least our living standards

00:44:42over the last few years even though they haven't been going up i think if we'd invested tens of

00:44:47billions and it probably would have been hundreds of billions in uh supporting manufacturing and and

00:44:51farming and trying to become more self-sufficient we would be an awful lot poorer uh than we are now

00:44:57and i don't think quite rightly uh the electorate would have stood for that now let us avert our eyes

00:45:02back to matters domestic politics for a moment here before we do a final hour again no doubt

00:45:07dipping our toes in the boiling waters of uh international politics and of course at 12 o'clock

00:45:13we'll be having uh prime minister's questions which we'll be taking live i think that's going to be a

00:45:18particularly pugnacious session interesting to see the words that come out of starmer's mouth during that

00:45:23and how uh truthful they may be but um there's been a reform press conference again today and our very

00:45:30own samara gill has been there we can connect with her now hello samara uh what was on the agenda

00:45:36for

00:45:37nigel farage and his crew you know it was a really interesting press conference today uh having labor

00:45:45defectors uh like sir robin who's just next to me uh in the building saying some really interesting things

00:45:53that signal a sort of new wave for reform especially in their london borough or sort of the votes that

00:46:00they're trying to pick up here it was very very interesting we discussed a lot about the grooming

00:46:05gangs with leila cunningham uh the inaction of sadiq khan there were words flung about about him left right

00:46:11and center uh also the dissatisfaction uh that the defectors had with kia stama and how they can no

00:46:17longer recognize the labor party it was seriously interesting stuff and peppered in there was nigel

00:46:23farage uh giving his view on the world's events um but let's cross over to sir robin wales now i

00:46:30mean

00:46:30this is a really interesting uh defection what was sort of the final straw for you so i'll say again

00:46:38i

00:46:38we didn't defect from the labor party the labor party left us we stand by the values that we've had

00:46:44for a long time we haven't changed those values we left the labor party we looked around and talked

00:46:49to reform we thought you know we need a radical change not destroy everything but a radical change

00:46:55and we thought this was the right place to come yeah nobody says they're racist but of course they're

00:46:59not that's just what the opposition tried to label them as you're not a defector i don't consider

00:47:04myself a defector i consider myself somebody who's sensible and has looked at the reality you ask what

00:47:09the last straw was there are many last straws i mean the grooming gangs is a good example how

00:47:13yeah come on we know that people were covering it up they've got to be made to account in london

00:47:19there were grooming gangs around across the country while i was in london running newham and i want

00:47:24to know if we missed anything i want to know did we miss anything should we what more could we

00:47:29have

00:47:29done you were the mayor for a long time why wasn't there action on that well because we we didn't

00:47:34see

00:47:34it nobody ever brought it up to us we had no idea it was going on until it was very

00:47:39brave journalists

00:47:40actually revealed it but that's why we want to review we want the whole thing out in the open

00:47:44let's find out what happened find out any mistakes that were made um i don't think we made mistakes but

00:47:50you know i i'm always willing to listen so that's an important issue but to be honest i think the

00:47:55whole

00:47:55starmer government is gutless they they should have faced down their mps they didn't and as a result all

00:48:02the things that they should be doing they're not doing starmers and starmers prime minister to be prime

00:48:06minister he's not prime minister to do anything he's not prime minister to to represent the people

00:48:11that i think we should represent which is working people on low incomes that's why i joined the

00:48:15labour party but i was always i was always to support working people on low incomes and that's

00:48:20that's who's been left left in the lurch and i would say to anybody out there who's like that have

00:48:26a really good look at reform they're not the party that other people try to make them out to be

00:48:30and i think myself and clive fernest who's the candidate in the mayoral candidate in newham

00:48:36both think this is right right the right choice you and clive had some very nice things to say

00:48:41about nick clegg tony blair even boris johnson i mean it's very common knowledge that the reform

00:48:46base does not trust these people what would you say to that i didn't see very nice things i said

00:48:51nick gibb and the tories did something right sorry that's my bad that's not probably probably my accent

00:48:56i i it's okay i misunderstood loads but boris johnson got some nice words boris johnson did some good

00:49:04stuff in london we'll see some excellent people working with him he gets to number 10 and he

00:49:08stops listening to anybody and he was a disastrous prime minister absolute disaster the boris wave and

00:49:13everything else but as mayor of london he was not a bad mayor we should be honest we don't have

00:49:18to

00:49:19criticize everybody when they've done a good job so he's done an all right job blair first five years

00:49:23i think we should look at that and say that was very successful then we sent all the kids to

00:49:27university then we went to iraq and then he made lots of mistakes but give credit for the things

00:49:33that people do well and criticize them for the things that they do badly we'd do a lot better

00:49:37in politics if we did that so i'd just like to be honest a bit of forgiveness entering uh reform

00:49:42i

00:49:42see look i mean i said i'd forgive anybody i said i'd be honest about it come on why reform

00:49:48uk i mean

00:49:48what does it have to offer london voters that the labour and conservatives don't i mean

00:49:52sadiq khan is a behemoth candidate you're taking him on what are you going to offer clive for ness is

00:49:58taking on newham where we had 80 satisfaction level most popular council in the country now it's 25

00:50:04percent that's what you get when you get a carbonate starbonate starmonite sort of system there

00:50:11i think lila cunningham's a very good candidate i think what what this time for me she's dynamic and

00:50:16smart and all that but what's really good about her is she listens and she she doesn't think she can

00:50:21do everything she's going to get people in to make it run well which is the model that will give

00:50:25us

00:50:25a better london so we're happy to support her very happy to support her the reason reform well let's

00:50:31be honest the tories completely messed it up labor did that disastrous job the greens are out to lunch

00:50:36and the liberals haven't found a fence they couldn't sit on or a log flume they can't go down and

00:50:41we

00:50:41what do they actually stand for none of them stand for anything except the continuation of the current

00:50:45politics that aren't aren't delivering the services people deserve reform have raised issues that

00:50:52nobody else has done they're willing to talk and listen they want to be radical as i say you don't

00:50:58just throw everything out you're radical you find out what services are being delivered and you

00:51:03we wrote a book left right wrong about time in newham about how to approach improving services our job

00:51:08after the election is going to be to go into councils if reform wins some could never take the electorate

00:51:13for

00:51:13granted and if they win we'll talk to them about how to deliver better services so we can demonstrate

00:51:18that it can work better thank you so much sir robin wales uh he's going to be a reformer now

00:51:25but he

00:51:25hasn't defected don't get that i've always been a reformer there you go uh alex back to you that's the

00:51:31new look for reform thank you very much yeah interesting there to see that reform is sort of they might

00:51:36not

00:51:36be big defections it might not be you know on the same part as robert jenrich but i think trying

00:51:42to

00:51:43demonstrate that they are i suppose they might argue a centrist party that attracts support

00:51:48from all corners of the political spectrum certainly if they're wanting to break down barriers in the

00:51:53red wall they will need labor votes but this of course was a press conference focusing on london

00:51:59where they've already announced their mayoral candidate in the form of layla cunningham

00:52:02that is not set to take place the mayoral election for london uh until 2027 but uh critical

00:52:09elections of course are coming up locally as well let's speak now to adam coleman columnist from the

00:52:14new york post oh adam i'm so sorry i apologize on behalf of the entire of the united kingdom

00:52:20to the u.s president and the people of america that we are led by i don't know whether he's

00:52:26a traitor or

00:52:27a wimp uh what's being said in america about us um i would lean more towards wimp um but you

00:52:35know i i think

00:52:36what's been happening lately is there's there's been a lot of posturing within the country um and

00:52:41there's been some a little bit of posturing outside the country as well kirstama is an example um but

00:52:47none of that surprises me and i don't think it surprises anyone who's been paying attention um i

00:52:52think the the tariff arguments going back and forth between united states and uk maybe sour the

00:52:58relationship a little bit um but in general i mean this is partly my personal opinion um i think he's

00:53:05a bit of a

00:53:06weak man just in general um and i think there has been a sense of weakness coming from the uk

00:53:10government and actually probably from the eu in general um who are unwilling to go against on uh

00:53:16things that don't make sense and unwilling to do the unpopular thing that is necessary

00:53:22i mean thankfully we've had a win in the senate so with america well the republicans backing trump on

00:53:29his uh actions where does america stand on this is it one of those sort of dividing on party lines

00:53:34of

00:53:34those who support affirmative assertive action in the gulf and those who don't it's it's a mixed bag

00:53:42actually this is one of the few issues that is not entirely partisan i mean it is partisan uh because

00:53:47the democrats just hate trump by default um but as far as polling goes it's it's a bit mixed from

00:53:55the

00:53:55american public and i think the reason being is we have a sense of reluctancy to war because of what

00:54:02happened in afghanistan and iraq and i'm partly guilty of that as well uh taking a stronger anti-war

00:54:10stance um especially years ago and it's because we were promised oh this would be boom real quick

00:54:16we'll be in and out and the next thing you know we got boots in the ground and actually you

00:54:20know it's

00:54:2020 years later and then biden fumbles uh you know getting troops out of afghanistan um so we're very

00:54:28reluctant to get into things of this nature and so it seems for people who aren't paying attention it

00:54:34seems out of nowhere right so it's not a 9 11 happens we're looking for who's responsible like

00:54:41there's a cause and effect that the american public can see um from a diplomatic standpoint this is

00:54:47something that appears to have been building up and building up and then now we're at that point so

00:54:53i think that's why it's so split we're just very reluctant to try to get into any wars

00:54:59it's interesting that a while ago people like nigel farage and people in the uk were saying to americas

00:55:03you've got to see what trump's doing about these jagos islands he's going to get into mauritius

00:55:08it's china's ally that's your airbase there and at one point trump's like no it's okay it's a good deal

00:55:13it's the best deal he could get then all of a sudden he had a thought and went actually this

00:55:17is

00:55:17ridiculous this is a surrendered deal you're turning it into woke islands now all of a sudden

00:55:22it's come to a head everyone knows the word chagos and diego garcia because the uk said

00:55:26you're not allowed to use it i mean thankfully they've slightly changed their tune on this one

00:55:31how do you see that progressing because i keep saying to my mates in america you need to subpoena

00:55:36those involved in that deal drag them in front of congress and find what on earth has gone on

00:55:42um you know what i'll admit here this is an area that i'm not too strong on um so i

00:55:47don't i don't

00:55:47have like a whole lot of commentary about that particular topic um so i i do apologize i don't

00:55:53have a whole thing like i said chagos it's been a big conversation in the uk but like i said

00:55:58actually

00:55:58sort of uh precursor the question with americans don't you know weren't aware of what's going on

00:56:04in this regard do you think that you know it's always a lazy journalistic question but do you think that

00:56:08this is going to be fairly terminal now uh for the relationship between starmer and trump because

00:56:14he's quite a mercurial character probably but you know what i've seen trump do weird things from a

00:56:23politician standpoint where someone goes out of favor and the next thing you know they're back um

00:56:27look at elon musk right elon musk was his best friend and the next moment elon musk is trashing him

00:56:33and then you know five minutes later elon musk is back in the white house and everything is good

00:56:38so uh you know trump 2.0 seems to be a bit more forgiving i've talked about this before he

00:56:44seems

00:56:44to be different um he's he's still the same but in in small ways he's a little bit different um

00:56:50i think

00:56:51he's he seems to be the type of person he's open to someone becoming better in his grace um and

00:56:58giving

00:56:59them a second chance maybe than you know 10 years ago also where's jd i haven't seen him for a

00:57:05while

00:57:06it's all rubio right now and rubio is quite hawkish i love a bit of marco rubio can i just

00:57:10say thank

00:57:11goodness for him but um a while ago it was jd vance at the munich security conference over a year

00:57:17ago

00:57:18saying europe needs to get its act together but this time around it was marco rubio my understanding is

00:57:22jd vance is sort of very non-interventionist has he been locked in a cupboard somewhere is he all right

00:57:29well the last thing i saw was from the state of the union where they were talking about that jd

00:57:33um was going to head up going after fraud in the federal government right um so that's the last

00:57:40i really saw of him him and his impact but just in general the vice president position is is kind

00:57:46of

00:57:46like a it's a cheerleader role like you have no real power um so it's kind of like you're either

00:57:53waiting for someone to die which hopefully that person doesn't and in the meantime here why don't you

00:57:59you know become the border czar like kamala like you're just they're just giving you stuff to do

00:58:05but you don't really have any power or say you just have uh you know you can call the press

00:58:10and get some

00:58:11attention that's about it but is he cheerleading for trump right now because my understanding is he's

00:58:15not really one for foreign wars has actually been quite vocal against them but is he doing a good

00:58:19support act right now for the president well maybe we shouldn't look at it as

00:58:25um is is is jd not being put forward because he doesn't support it more so that marco rubio does

00:58:32a better job at representing what's going on because this this is his job this is his role uh you

00:58:39know

00:58:39so and he's doing a great job as far as communicating what is going on uh shooting down um false

00:58:46information

00:58:47as to what's happening and everything that they've said that's been going on seems to be pretty accurate

00:58:52as far as the results on the ground um and that's the i think the big thing the big takeaway

00:58:57for me

00:58:58is that there are no boots in the ground you know there anytime you engage in some sort of conflict

00:59:03there there are going to be like a small amount of casualties or some sort of casualties um i believe

00:59:09it was uh four service members or six service members who were killed in this entire you know in a

00:59:16situation uh but we we also have friendly fire you know so things like this are always going to happen

00:59:22i i do think that as long as we don't have u.s troops going on the ground in iran

00:59:28i think trump

00:59:30will survive this and i think the republican party will survive this because this will be seen as

00:59:35republican-led but the moment we start sending troops on the ground the longer they're on the ground

00:59:41the worst is going to appear now unsurprising the united kingdom we've got a load of uh islamist

00:59:46sympathizers holding vigils for the late ayatollah are you seeing anything like that in america

00:59:53um very small amounts uh and they're all paid by china so you know it's the same people um we

01:00:00don't

01:00:00like to actually call what it is but these are paid protesters these are organizations that are funded

01:00:05either by the muslim brotherhood or they're funded by the ccp right and this isn't hyperbolic these are

01:00:11factual things um there is no reason as to why something happens and they already have the posters

01:00:18ready to go in less than an hour and everyone is mobilized and it's because this is their job

01:00:23they are highly funded operations uh that are happening across the country four people have been

01:00:29arrested as part of a counter-terrorism investigation relating to iran that's from the metropolitan

01:00:35police they've arrested one iranian and three dual british iranian nationals on suspicion of

01:00:40assisting a foreign intelligence service and this is in relation to the suspected surveillance of

01:00:45locations and individuals linked to jewish communities let's speak now to dr alan mendoza

01:00:51executive director for henry jackson society alan great to have you on it's been suggested to me that

01:00:57as iran's military capabilities in the middle east may begin to dwindle they then might look to

01:01:04broadening the scope of their attack against the world by using domestic terrorism via various

01:01:10sleeper cells uh what's your thoughts on that well um what's interesting about this case alex is that

01:01:18it's actually a long-standing operation that led to its uh discovery so what this tells us is what we

01:01:24already know which is that iran has been operating these sleeper cells or uh infiltration cells in the

01:01:29uk for a significant period of time and i think you're you're quite right that clearly um one method

01:01:35of attack for a regime flailing around um on its way to its demise might be to use whatever assets

01:01:43it's

01:01:44got abroad uh to strike out but you know right now but the real problem is that this has been

01:01:49a

01:01:49long-standing uh issue in the uk not merely a recent one in terms of the sort of thing that

01:01:54the

01:01:55capabilities that irgc might have would they be looking would you imagine to potentially targeting

01:02:00military sites or could they uh potentially see attacking civilians as a way to broaden

01:02:06um the scope of this war well it could be any of the above but uh the terror plots that

01:02:13have been

01:02:13disrupted on uk soil have tended to focus on dissidents or civilians frequently jewish community members

01:02:20uh in the uk so that might give you a clue as to what they're you know what they tend

01:02:24to want to

01:02:25do which is to cause you know indiscriminate terrorism and attempt to therefore scare people that way

01:02:32let's talk about after the regime given that one might hope that there won't be much of it

01:02:38left however long that takes uh people can say trump doesn't have a plan so on and so forth

01:02:43i kind of think that's a bit of a red herring in terms of who actually ever knows without a

01:02:48crystal

01:02:48of how things are going to emerge what do you see might be a future for iran going forward that

01:02:54could be achievable and how could that be done well um the bad news is that none of these things

01:03:00are easy things to achieve so let's imagine that um what we might term regime collapse occurs i.e.

01:03:07the regime is prized out of power a lot depends on how that happens um if for example it is

01:03:14prized

01:03:14out of power because people take to the streets overwhelming millions come onto the streets

01:03:18and basically force them out that's one thing if it's an armed force on the ground and don't forget

01:03:23there have been reports the americans have been arming the kurds uh in iran uh that's another

01:03:28different that's a sort of another uh end game entirely the big issue is that we don't particularly

01:03:33know what would emerge post um the the collapse of the regime and you know ultimately it's for the

01:03:40iranian people to decide what that looks like although i noticed that president trump suggested he

01:03:44would have a say in the uh selection of the next uh iranian uh leader again we're not quite sure

01:03:50what that means does he mean he's going to support a particular candidate uh you know and throw the

01:03:55weight of the us behind that uh or is it something else that he has in mind i'm afraid alex

01:04:00there's a

01:04:00lot of you know unknowns at the moment in this uh discussion and what we do know though is that

01:04:05the

01:04:05regime must go so uh order one uh of the day is to remove that regime and order two is

01:04:10to sort out what

01:04:11might happen afterwards but that to me seems extremely a very normal situation for a war

01:04:16and the collapse of a regime nobody really has but you know if you're a terrorist state

01:04:22an oppressive regime you don't exactly have a democratic system with an opposition party ready

01:04:26to take the reins and surely it's the case that most countries uh when they're entering a conflict do

01:04:32have a preferred candidate someone who they know would work with the west someone who they uh believe

01:04:38wouldn't inflict the sort of uh terrors a terror tax and and funding of terror proxies as a previous

01:04:45regime has has been doing uh i mean yes in theory but you'll recall that the americans had a preferred

01:04:52candidate for iraq um in 2003 his name was ahmed chalabi nobody remembers him today because he got nowhere

01:04:59in that sort of uh mission but the the point is that whoever comes and takes over is going to

01:05:05need

01:05:05legitimacy with the iranian people which is why it's right to say the iranian people are the

01:05:10other correct arbiters for the next process in iran this is not something that um western powers

01:05:17want or should be taking charge of that whole era of nation building is over how does this affect the

01:05:26anti-western axis i was reading a theory that one of the main reasons why america has wanted to go

01:05:34in

01:05:34against iran is to begin to break that axis up to prevent iran from providing deadly weaponry to

01:05:40russia and more critically to prevent iran being able to supply china with uh oil and energy that they

01:05:48use uh to then grow their economies and essentially conduct a sort of predatory mercantilism around the

01:05:55world um do you see that axis falling apart because china's been very limited it doesn't seem to be

01:06:01running to iran's age similarly when iran turned around to russia and said oh look we've been giving

01:06:05you all these drones for a long time give us something back putin appears to have just shrugged

01:06:10his shoulders well putin's got nothing to give that's the the irony of all this is the iranians have

01:06:15been using um russian uh air defense systems and they were proven to be completely hopeless so the

01:06:21point is putin's actually got nothing to give russia uh to give iran that's of any use to iran right

01:06:25now

01:06:25um and putin is also of course tied up in ukraine one of the um sort of fortunate uh byproducts

01:06:33of

01:06:33the ukraine war which is a terrible war uh and should never have started of course but one of

01:06:37the fortunate byproducts is that um the russians have been unable to interfere anywhere else because

01:06:43they've made such a mess of their ukrainian invasion ukraine's brave resistance has actually

01:06:47helped lots of other people uh around the world who are trying to fight for their freedom and on the

01:06:52china front and the chinese won't intervene because uh they're not set up in a way to do

01:06:57that there are no chinese expeditionary forces uh that can be sent plus it would you know obviously

01:07:02be a tremendous uh you know kind of rupture with the us and they're not ready for that either

01:07:07so iran kind of is on its own but you're right to suggest that this is a significant breakup of

01:07:12the um

01:07:13you know the new the newfound axis of resistance stroke you know uh old style axis of evil that exists

01:07:19in the world um we saw venezuela of course which was a supplier of oil uh to this axis as

01:07:24well

01:07:24being knocked out earlier in the year now we have the potential for iran to be knocked out this is

01:07:29significant if we can get regime change uh to occur in iran that is a major strategic game changer not

01:07:36simply in the middle east but globally because of the alliances iran has had and that is something

01:07:41i'm sure that's not been lost uh on the white house and something that's made me cock a curious

01:07:47eyebrow is the potential for there being diversionary disinformation being put out in the public domain

01:07:52and by this i mean this weekend there's apparently going to be a cnd process protest outside

01:07:59raf fairford now that potentially american bombers might be coming into the us airbase located in

01:08:06gloucestershire but also i've been reading i live down the road from it and i've got a bit of a

01:08:10weird

01:08:10obsession with military aircraft that the u2 spy plane has been seen taking off from raf fairford

01:08:16the dragon lady which is a 60 year old piece of equipment for crying out loud and i'm beginning

01:08:21to wonder whether this is a bit like look over here look over here this is where the us bombers

01:08:26are going to be when actually they're probably not going to be there they'll be somewhere else that

01:08:30nobody will know about well i mean everyone i mean people will know where they come from because

01:08:34there are only limited number of bases they can sort of take off from but the reality is alex

01:08:38that this is a multi-faceted and multi-layered uh mission so um although uh u2 planes are indeed

01:08:45uh very elderly as it were uh they operate at extremely high altitudes and in don't danger being

01:08:50shot down over uh iran if the technology works you can use it they all there are many different

01:08:55types of aircraft being used in the operation i mean the key thing to note is that the uh israelis

01:09:00and americans have achieved total air dominance over iran's airspace they can do anything they want

01:09:05and they can therefore use any airplanes they want uh even ones that are you know kind of very old

01:09:10and you know you'll see b-52s in operation as well uh very elderly planes but they don't need to

01:09:14worry

01:09:14about being shot down so they can do that uh so i think you know you've got different things coming

01:09:18from different parts of the world different us bases um and you know the importance is is really

01:09:23just to show how impressive this operation is on the part of the americans and israelis

01:09:29and how it will continue to obviously uh degrade the iranian regime yeah i mean it's one thing's for

01:09:34sure we saw america using some pretty awesome kit in venezuela for the removal of maduro

01:09:39finally uh as a form you gave chief advisor on global affairs if nigel farage was the prime minister

01:09:45right now what would you be advising him to do that would be different from what sakir starma is

01:09:51currently doing well uh nigel farage has already told you what what he would do that was different

01:09:56he was on day one uh saying uh we should have allowed the americans to use the bases for whatever

01:10:01they want now note where you know we're doing defensive stuff you know sort of processing at

01:10:05the moment but he would have been very happy clearly for the americans to use the bases for

01:10:09any particular purpose so i think the key the key difference would have been the degree of support

01:10:14given to um our allies from day one of this campaign which would of course have avoided the

01:10:20rupture and the special relationship that has occurred because of the appalling and erratic behavior

01:10:25of this government and i suppose the second thing that would would undoubtedly have been the case is that we

01:10:30would have protected um you know british bases much better that would have been the key determining

01:10:36factor and again would have been alive to the realities of what iran was capable of which again

01:10:41this government appears to have been caught short in so clearly we've got a problem right now in that

01:10:45foreign and defense policy uh in the uk uh is not being conducted with the interests of you know

01:10:51national security and national defense foremost in mind we are seeing worrying uh gaps and problems

01:10:56would you have recommended potentially even taking an offensive stance actually joining israel and america

01:11:04in the initial round of attacks against the regime or would you say no no that's going a step too

01:11:09far

01:11:10no i i personally would not have recommended us getting involved uh initially and this is you know

01:11:16firstly the us and israel don't need us in this operation uh so there was no particular value in our

01:11:22joining it what i would have advised though is that on day one i would have made it quite clear

01:11:28to the

01:11:28iranians that were any british bases to be attacked that there would be retaliatory strikes by british

01:11:32forces what we're currently seeing essentially is that the iranians are attacking us and we're then

01:11:37claiming we're doing defensive operations to you know to sort of uh defend our allies but what we

01:11:43should have been doing is stating quite clearly you attack us we will attack you it is really very simple

01:11:47we

01:11:47will we will uh use our rights to self-defense in order to actually make sure that you regret attacking

01:11:55british bases i think that's a fundamental different piece of advice i would give in

01:11:59fact it's something i've said on the news over the last few days now qatar's energy minister

01:12:03has said that war in the middle east could bring down the economies of the world meanwhile the united

01:12:09states is trying to calm oil price fears they're going to have to drill baby drill one assumes but

01:12:14as the strait of homers is blocked is america going to have to try guide people a guide cargo

01:12:19vessels carrying fuel through that very narrow passage is that even achievable if the blockages

01:12:24continue for much longer what will that mean will it send shockwaves around the world particularly

01:12:29how is that going to impact us here in the united kingdom let's speak now to angela knight's former

01:12:34ceo of energy uk ex-treasury minister angela it's always good having you on the program see

01:12:39i think what's happening what's building up here is something that's going to hit us extremely hard

01:12:45extremely painfully i don't feel we've heard from the government of the united kingdom what they would

01:12:51do to help us if this crisis deepens what do you see could take place going forward well at the

01:12:58moment

01:12:58of course as you rightly point out the straits of homers effectively closed and uh qatar

01:13:05um which is a big driller of gas and exports its gas predominantly to the east into uh asia is

01:13:15it has

01:13:15it has closed all that production all that exporting that's hitting the world price it's not yet hitting

01:13:22availability as far as europe is concerned but it's certainly hitting the price now what can happen well

01:13:30the reality is exactly what's said that if the straits of homers stay closed and you can't get the oil

01:13:38and

01:13:38gas out then there will be some form of economic crisis not necessarily to the world not necessarily

01:13:43to all countries but certainly to some now as i understand it what trump is saying is yeah well

01:13:50we'll guide some ships through and what's more he's also said uh because there's an insurance issue you

01:13:56know would insurers uh say we're prepared to ensure your ship as it goes through the straits of all

01:14:02moves under these sorts of circumstances so he's saying that he'll put an insurance in place as well

01:14:07well the right now we honestly don't know what's really going to happen we do know that our prices

01:14:14are likely to go up but not necessarily by how much and they're not going to go up today or

01:14:19tomorrow

01:14:19certainly as far as domestic is concerned because of the price cap which is going to stay there for another

01:14:24uh period of time until uh july and in any case our bills are going to reduce because some of

01:14:31the

01:14:31policy uh which is added policy costs added to the bill by the government being taken off from the first

01:14:37of april so you know it's it's not quite the time to panic but what it is is it's the

01:14:43time for various

01:14:44plans to be made plans by governments such as ours uh plans as far as nato is concerned um and

01:14:52something

01:14:53uh really sort of what i would say far more forward thinking because this does show this this crisis does

01:15:00show that we don't have control of our own energy security and we need to think that through much

01:15:08better including the pricing after all if um if the majority of your of your own fuel your own energy

01:15:16your own gas is coming out of your own fields or very local to you um long-term contracts then

01:15:24you

01:15:24can weather these spikes because you don't have to say well i've got a long-term contract but you know

01:15:30we're going to have to take take today's gas spike so that energy security is important and it's also not

01:15:37just important as far as gas is concerned for our households but it's also important as far as pricing the

01:15:43electricity to our um our businesses which is which are more likely to be affected quickly quickly

01:15:51and this spike because of the way we calculate electricity price in the uk will be affecting

01:15:58the wholesale price of electricity right now so there's a piece of work to be done for the long term

01:16:03short term uh it's all about planning and looking at the various options of how we unstick what's got

01:16:11stuck because of this war you talk about availability earlier and that is what i'm interested in because

01:16:17it's very clear that iran has been targeting gas fields oil fields closing the straits of homers

01:16:23essentially um by threatening to attack anything that passes through it at what point does the sort

01:16:30of you know lights on the dashboard start blinking because all of a sudden it's very difficult to access

01:16:35oil and gas and we suddenly go blimey what are we going to do as a country is that a

01:16:40long way off or

01:16:41is that action trump's been talking about operations going on um potentially until september um but if

01:16:48iran continues to be successful in attacking the energy suppliers some of the biggest energy suppliers in

01:16:55the world uh have we got a capability if we're not able to import lng from places like qatar norway

01:17:03america

01:17:03can we keep the lights on or is that sort of you know a far-off concern um well we

01:17:09can of course

01:17:10norway isn't affected it's the price that gets affected there um uh the u.s is an exporter of gas

01:17:18and we are importer from the u.s so the the supply the supply issue it's not going to run

01:17:25out tomorrow and

01:17:26it's not going to run out next week but that supply is an issue in the sense that this is

01:17:31now uh constraint

01:17:33in the world availability of lng and as i say because qatar goes east of qatar it's affecting

01:17:41those asian countries first so like don't don't start getting worried about the lights out this week

01:17:48that's good to know

01:17:52your question is a very important question it's actually quite a difficult one to answer because

01:17:57whereas iran is is firing rockets off you know hell for leather every night all across the gulf states

01:18:04um there comes a point where it's going to run out of ammunition it's going to run out of places

01:18:08to

01:18:08far from the u.s after all is taking out a lot of their missile centers and their launch spots

01:18:15right now

01:18:15so what i don't know is i don't have a visibility at all into how long this actual part of

01:18:22the battle is

01:18:23going to continue but as the u.s is endeavoring to stop iran being able to have any capacity or

01:18:31capability left to firing any of these rockets you know that that becomes the key issue as far as

01:18:38reopening those straits of hormones are concerned and i i don't know if you have had on uh somebody

01:18:45who's been able to tell you from a uh from military perspective you know what's happening with the

01:18:51stocks in iran and what's happening on that piece uh of the jigsaw because they i think are far more

01:18:57likely to be able if they know the answer to give um a better direction of when we can expect

01:19:05realistically for the oil and gas to start being just to start being put into tankers and coming

01:19:12out of that part of the world um i don't think any of us mind you expected that iran would

01:19:19do what

01:19:20it do and what it's been doing i'm sure that the united states didn't they thought that iran would

01:19:25just fold in the face of these huge carriers and its great military might and all that sort of thing

01:19:30rand's played a clever game in trying to bring in as many parts of the world as possible directly

01:19:36through the states but indirectly through energy in order to preserve itself uh and in this instance

01:19:42it's not preserving the country it's preserving the way in which that country is run and that card of

01:19:47what looks like old fanatical religious men who are making um you know being behind all this frankly

01:19:55um and uh therefore we are in a far more difficult situation than we were at the start

01:20:00and in any case let's say the us being energy is self-sufficient and therefore is very much shielded

01:20:06from it else states of course are in a very difficult position very briefly because we haven't got much

01:20:11time left it's a moot question anyway because i can't see this happening in a month for sundays but if

01:20:16ed milliband decided the way forward now would be to uh revisit the north sea and say we should start

01:20:23extracting oil and gas are we in a position to do that uh yes we are but you can't do

01:20:29that overnight

01:20:30either right because this whole running down of i mean the north sea of course is on a decline anyway

01:20:37simply because we take so much out of it but since the labor party came to power and the the

01:20:43miniband

01:20:44decisions on net zero which frankly defy all economic logic and practical logic but his decisions have meant

01:20:53that the lack of investment into existing wells wells in the north sea has clearly not you know that

01:20:59investment hasn't taken place the taxation has gone up so nobody's doing anything but uh could you can

01:21:06you reopen some of the wells can you reinvigorate them can you take more out of the existing parts of

01:21:13the north sea which we drill the answer that is absolutely yes and irrespective of how quickly this

01:21:19is there but that is something that we have to do we have to get a sensible energy policy that

01:21:23is good

01:21:23for the united kingdom back in place

01:21:49you

01:21:51you

“It’s ALL Starting To Unravel” Alex Phillips’ Biggest Moments Of The Week - TalkTV

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